To evaluate the predictive capacity of the nutritional-inflammatory index and clinicopathological characteristics in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) receiving total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT). Data from 127 patients with LARC receiving TNT from January 2017 to January 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Clinicopathological characteristics with different TNT-induced responses were compared. The Chi-square test and the Mann-Whitney test were used to analyze the association between pre-TNT factors and TNT-induced responses. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to construct a predictive model. In the cohort of 127 patients with LARC who underwent total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT), the mean age was 54.1 ± 11.4 years; 88 (69.3%) were male. Seventy patients (55.1%) exhibited a favorable response to TNT, while 57 patients (44.9%) demonstrated a poor response. Tumor characteristics, including diameter, distance from the anal verge, pre-TNT lymphocyte, pre-TNT hemoglobin, CA199, PLR, and HALP, exhibit correlations with TNT-induced tumor regression. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified large tumor diameters (> 5.0 cm; p = 0.005, HR 2.958; 95% CI 1.382-6.335) and low HALP (≤ 40; p = 0.002, HR 0.261; 95% CI 0.111-0.612) as predictors of TNT-induced poor responses. Additionally, low levels of HALP were associated with an increased risk of recurrence in patients with LARC with TNT, but this was not statistically significant (p = 0.087, HR 2.008, 95% CI 0.906-4.447). A large tumor diameter and low HALP predict poor tumor regression induced by the CAPOX-based TNT regimen in patients with LARC.
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