Total Natural Gas Consumption Research Articles

An assessment of energy security in Thailand’s power generation

Presently, electricity power generation in Thailand mainly relies on natural gas approximately 70% of the total primary energy demand. Furthermore, around 37% of the total natural gas consumption is imported from neighboring countries. The Thai government developed a new power development plan in 2010 (PDP) to strengthen its energy security due to excessive reliance on natural gas for electricity generation and mitigate CO2 emissions by planning to install new nuclear power plants by 2030. Particularly after the nuclear power disaster in Fukushima, Japan in 2011, public opinion remains in opposition with nuclear technology, raising issues concerning the feasibility of this potential energy source.It is found that an intensive coal power plants scenario is the highest emission of CO2 per kWh and its electricity unit cost is higher than PDP about 7.35%. If nuclear and new coal power plants cannot be implemented according to PDP plan, a renewable energy scenario is possible. This option not only strengthens the energy security, but it significantly mitigates the intensity of CO2 emission per kWh higher than PDP about 7.14%. However, this only can be achieved by increasing the electricity unit cost by 14% compared to the price estimated by the 2010 PDP.

A mathematical modeling for incorporating energy price hikes into total natural gas consumption forecasting

In some countries that energy prices are low, price elasticity of demand may not be significant. In this case, large increase or hike in energy prices may impact energy consumption in a way which cannot be drawn from historical data. This paper proposes an integrated adaptive fuzzy inference system (FIS) to forecast long-term natural gas (NG) consumption when prices experience large increase. To incorporate the impact of price hike into modeling, a novel procedure for construction and adaptation of Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy inference system (TS-FIS) is suggested. Linear regressions are used to construct a first order TS-FIS. Furthermore, adaptive network-based FIS (ANFIS) is used to forecast NG consumption in power plants. To cope with random uncertainty in small historical data sets, Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to generate training data for ANFIS. To show the applicability and usefulness of the proposed model, it is applied for forecasting of annual NG consumption in Iran where removing energy subsidies has resulted in a hike in NG prices.

The Study on Comprehensive Utilization of Liquefied Natural Gas

In recent years, the price of oil has been soaring. As an alternative energy, natural gas could well be the main energy of the future development. Next twenty years will be the age of rapid natural gas growing. It has been predicted that China will be one of the largest global natural gas consumers. Twenty-five percent of country’s total natural gas consumption was imported. However, China is unable to be self-sufficient in natural gas resources in last ten years. So it is necessary to depend on imports to meet the rapid rise in natural gas demand. There are two main channels to import natural gas: pipeline transportation and ship-loading liquefied natural gas. Due to the limitation of pipeline transportation, ship-loading LNG will be China’s major import channel in the future. LNG is irreplaceable, wide-used, clean and low-carbon. With continued progress in mining technique and the discoveries of unconventional energy, the available natural gas resources in China will be increasingly rich; this enables sustainable development in energy. The introduction and innovation of liquefaction technique and the localization of LNG technique will improve the embarrassing dependence on imported process technology and supply strong technique support for the development of LNG. Domestic liquefied natural gas plants’ out-put is expected to exceed 7.5 million tons per year. As the key measure to reduce PM 2.5 emission, LNG will gradually replace oil as a new-generation car fuel and become the new surpass the old-timer. With the implementation of LNG terminal project, the reception capacity will gradually increase. It is predicted that the reception capacity of China will reach about 65 million tons per year in 2015. Based on the present data, the utilization and promotion of LNG will explosively grow. This article is concerned with the following topics: utilization of LNG, the future of LNG, and some related problems and suggestions regarding LNG.

Natural gas prices, LNG transport costs, and the dynamics of LNG imports

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, LNG is projected to become a much larger share of U.S. natural gas consumption, rising from current levels of around 2.5% of total natural gas consumption to 12.4% by 2030. Because natural gas and LNG are substitutes, natural gas prices are expected to be an important determinant of LNG imports. Furthermore, an increasing share of LNG is traded under short-term contracts with spot shipments being diverted to markets offering the highest returns (netbacks). Relative natural gas prices as well as LNG transportation costs are important determinants of LNG netbacks. This paper examines the empirical relationship between U.S. LNG imports, the Henry Hub price of natural gas relative to U.K. and Asia gas prices, and a proxy for LNG transportation costs using monthly data from 1997 to 2007. Granger causality tests, error variance decomposition, and impulse response analyses using a VAR model are employed to establish Granger-causality as well as the dynamics of natural gas prices and LNG transportation innovations on LNG imports.

Oil Sands Development: A Health Risk Worth Taking?

As traditional petroleum supplies dwindled and prices soared over the past few years, oil companies have shifted their attention to oil sands, a mix of sand, water, and a heavy, viscous hydrocarbon called bitumen that can be converted to oil. With the plunge in oil prices in fall 2008, many producers began canceling or postponing plans to expand oil sands development projects, but this turn of events could yet reverse, as Canada’s vast oil sands deposits are lauded as a secure source of imported oil for the United States. At the same time, however, oil sands present troubling questions in terms of the environmental health effects associated with their development.

Natural Gas Prices, LNG Transport Costs, and the Dynamics of LNG Imports

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, LNG is projected to become a much larger share of U.S. natural gas consumption, rising from current levels of around 2.5% of total natural gas consumption to 12.4% by 2030. Because natural gas and LNG are substitutes, natural gas prices are expected to be an important determinant of LNG imports. Furthermore, an increasing share of LNG is traded under short-term contracts with spot shipments being diverted to markets offering the highest returns (netbacks). Natural gas prices as well as LNG transportation costs are important determinants of LNG netbacks. This paper examines the empirical relationship between U.S. LNG imports, the Henry Hub price of natural gas, and a proxy for LNG transportation costs using monthly data from 1997 to 2007. Granger causality tests, error variance decomposition, and impulse response analyses using a VAR model are employed to establish Granger-causality as well as the dynamics of natural gas prices and LNG transportation innovations on LNG imports.

A utility bill study of mobile home weatherization savings

This study analyzes utility bill data for 36 mobile homes retrofitted by Colorado Division of Housing Weatherization Assistance Program according to criteria developed specifically for mobile homes by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The post-retrofit energy savings were determined using PRISM, a regression method that provides weather normalization. The study indicated a mean annual reduction in total natural gas consumption of approximately 25% and a mean reduction in heating fuel usage of about 31%. These reductions far exceeded US national average weatherization savings for both mobile homes and site-constructed homes while remaining within weatherization program cost guidelines. These real-world savings were about 70% of what had been expected based on experiments conducted previously at NREL within a controlled environment.