Time Trends In Mortality Research Articles

Time Trends and Predictions of Suicide Mortality for People Aged 70 Years and Over From 1990 to 2030 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Background: High suicide rate in the elderly is an important global public health problem but has not received the attention it deserves. This study aimed to examine time trends of suicide mortality for people aged 70 years and over by sex, age, and location from 1990 to 2017, and to provide predictions up to 2030.Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017, we presented elderly suicide mortality changes and compared the patterns for the elderly with that for all ages. We estimated associations between socio-demographic index (SDI) and suicide mortality rates using a restricted cubic spline smoother, and predicted suicide mortality rates up to 2030.Results: In 2017, 118,813 people aged 70 years and over died from suicide, indicating a mortality rate of 27.5 per 100,000, with the highest rates in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and for countries and territories, the highest were in South Korea, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mozambique, and Senegal. Between 1990 and 2017, suicide mortality rate for the elderly aged 70 years and over decreased globally (percentage change −29.1%), and the largest decreases occurred in East Asia, Southern Latin America, and Western Europe. Nationally, the largest decrease was found in Chile, followed by Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, and Philippines. For most countries, the elderly mortality rate was higher than the age-standardized rate, with the largest percentage differences in China and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The elderly suicide mortality rate decreased as SDI increased, except for a slight rebound at mid to high SDI. According to projections, 10 out of 195 countries were expected to meet the SDGs indicator of a third reduction by 2030.Conclusions: Variability in suicide mortality rates for the elderly aged 70 years and over by sex, age, region, country, and SDI can guide preventive policies, but causes of the variability need further study. Comprehensive strategies should be adopted to reduce suicide rates and close the gap to the 2030 SDGs.

The level and trend of road traffic injuries attributable mortality rate in Iran, 1990\u20132015: a story of successful regulations and a roadmap to design future policies

BackgroundRoad-Traffic-Injuries (RTIs) are predicted to rise up to the fifth leading cause of worldwide death by 2030 and Iran has the third highest RTIs mortality among higher-middle income countries. Although the high mortality of RTI in Iran is a warning, it provides the opportunity to indirectly assess the implemented RTI-related regulations’ effectiveness via high-resolution relevant statistics and, hence, Iran could serve as a guide for countries with similar context. In order to do so, we utilized this study to report the time and spatial trends of RTIs-related mortality in different age and sex groups and road user classes in Iran.MethodsBased on the national death-registration-system (DRS), cemeteries data, and the demographic characteristics, and after addressing incompleteness, we estimated mortality rates using spatiotemporal and Gaussian process regression models. We assessed Pearson seatbelt and helmet use and RTIs-attributable Age-Standardized-Morality-Rate (ASMR) associations. We also predicted RTIs-death-numbers, 2012–2020, by fitting a Generalized Additive Model to assess the status of achieving relevant sustainable development goal (SDG), namely reducing the number of RTIs-related deaths by half.ResultsOverall RTIs-attributable death and ASMR at the national level increased from 12.64 [95% UI, 9.52–16.86] to 29.1 [22.76–37.14] per 100,000 people in the time period of 1990–2015. The trend consisted of an increasing segment in 1990–2003 followed by a decreasing part till 2015. The highest percentage of death belonged to the three-or-more-wheels motorized vehicles. Pedestrian injuries percentage increased significantly and the highest mortality rate occurred in 85 years and older individuals. Low prevalence of seatbelt and helmet use were observed in provinces with higher than the median ASMR due to the relevant cause of each. RTIs-attributable death number is expected to reduce by 15.99% till 2020 which is lower than the established SDG goal.ConclusionsDespite the observed substantial moderation in the RTI-ASMR, Iran is till among the leading countries in terms of the highest mortality rates in the world. The enforced regulations including speed limitations (particularly for elder pedestrians) and mandatory use of seatbelt and helmet (for young adult and male drivers) had a considerable effect on ASMR, nevertheless, the RTI burden reduction needs to be sustained and enhanced.

Long-Term Survival, Causes of Death, and Trends in 5-Year Mortality After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The Tromsø Study.

Data on long-term survival after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are scarce. In a population-based nested case-control study, we compared long-term survival and causes of death within 5 years in 30-day survivors of first-ever ICH and controls, assessed the impact of cardiovascular risk factors on 5-year mortality, and analyzed time trend in 5-year mortality in ICH patients over 2 decades. We included 219 participants from the population-based Tromsø Study, who after the baseline participation had a first-ever ICH between 1994 to 2013 and 1095 age- and sex-matched participants without ICH. Cumulative survival was presented using the Kaplan-Meier method. Hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality and for the association between cardiovascular risk factors and 5-year mortality in 30-day survivors were estimated by stratified Cox proportional hazards models. Trend in 5-year mortality was assessed by logistic regression. Risk of death during follow-up (median time, 4.8 years) was increased in the ICH group compared with controls (HR, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.27-2.06]). Cardiovascular disease was the leading cause of death, with a higher proportion in ICH patients (22.9% versus 9.0%; P<0.001). Smoking increased the risk of 5-year mortality in cases and controls (HR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.15-2.19]), whereas serum cholesterol was associated with 5-year mortality in cases only (HR, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.04-1.86]). Use of anticoagulants at ICH onset increased the risk of death (HR, 2.09 [95% CI, 1.09-4.00]). There was no difference according to ICH location (HR, 1.15 [95% CI, 0.56-2.37]). Five-year mortality did not change during the study period (odds ratio per calendar year, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.93-1.09]). Survival rates were significantly lower in cases than in controls, driven by a 2-fold increased risk of cardiovascular death. Smoking, serum cholesterol, and use of anticoagulant drugs were associated with increased risk of death in ICH patients. Five-year mortality rates in ICH patients remained stable over time.

Time trends in ischaemic heart disease incidence and mortality over three decades (1990-2019) in 20 Western European countries: systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

To investigate and compare changes in the rates of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) incidence and mortality between 1990 and 2019 in 20 high-income Western European countries with similar public health systems and low cardiovascular risk. The 2020 updated version of the Global Burden of Disease database was searched. Variability and differences in IHD incidence and mortality rates (per 100 000) between countries over time, were calculated. A piecewise linear (join point) regression model was used to identify the slopes of these trends and the points in time at which significant changes in the trends occur. Ischaemic heart disease incidence and mortality rates varied widely between countries but decreased for all between 1990 and 2019. The relative change was greater for mortality than for incidence. Ischaemic heart disease incidence rates declined by approximately 36% between 1990 and 2019, while mortality declined by approximately 60%. Breakpoint analysis showed that the largest decreases in incidence and mortality occurred between 1990 and 2009 (-32%, -52%, respectively), with a much slower decrease after that (-5.9%, -17.6%, respectively), and even a slight increase for some countries in recent years. The decline in both incidence and mortality was lower in the Mediterranean European countries compared to the Nordic and Central European regions. In the Western European countries studied, the decline in age-standardized IHD incidence over three decades was slower than the decline in age-standardized IHD mortality. Decreasing trends of both IHD incidence and mortality has substantially slowed, and for some countries flattened, in more recent years.

Cardiovascular and Other Competing Causes of Death in Male Breast Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Epidemiologic Study.

PurposeMale breast cancer (MBC) is a rare disease that tends to occur in elderly men. Little is known about the causes of death in MBC because of the small sample size of most studies. This study aimed to investigate the causes of death in MBC patients.Patients and MethodsMBC patient data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1975–2016). Time trends of MBC mortality in the US population were analyzed using Joinpoint software. We calculated the proportion of each cause of death in the overall cohort and in different patient subgroups. Competing risk models were used to calculate cumulative mortality at different follow-up times. The risk of cardiovascular death (CVD) in MBC patients was compared to that of the age-matched general population by calculating standardized mortality ratio (SMR).ResultsIn total, 6426 patients were included in the analysis. MBC mortality rate increased between 2004 and 2019 (annual percentage change=1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50, 1.80). There were 1757 patients (27.3%) who died of non-breast cancer causes. CVD was the leading cause of death in patients who were elderly or had localized disease. MBC patients had a 6.58-fold higher risk of CVD than the general population (SMR=6.58, 95% CI: 6.14, 7.05).ConclusionNon-breast cancer death accounts for the majority of deaths in MBC patients who are elderly or have localized cancer. Compared to the general population, MBC patients have an increased risk of CVD. These results highlight the importance of monitoring cardiovascular comorbidities in MBC patients.

National trends in population rates of opioid-related mortality, hospitalization and emergency department visits in Canada between 2000 and 2017. A population-based study.

Existing assessments of the time-trends of opioid-related mortality, hospitalization and emergency department visits in Canada have relied mainly on provincial databases, while national assessments generally do not provide information before 2016. We aimed to estimate Canadian national time trends in opioid-related mortality from 2000 to 2017 and opioid-related hospitalization and emergency department visits between 2000 and 2012. Retrospective cohort study. Residents of all Canadian provinces and territories for which comparable data were available from 2000 to 2017. We identified opioid-related mortality, hospitalization and emergency department visits using validated algorithms using ICD codes from administrative databases. We calculated crude rates and sex- and age-adjusted rates per million. For hospitalizations, we calculated case-fatality, 90-day and 365-day all-cause mortality and opioid-related re-hospitalization rates. We used Poisson regression to examine the significance of the time trend. From 2000 to 2017, the adjusted opioid mortality rate in Canada (outside Quebec) increased significantly by 592.9% (from 20.0 opioid deaths per million in 2000 to 118.3 in 2017). The highest year-to-year increases were from 2015 to 2016 (31.8%) and from 2016 to 2017 (52.2%). The adjusted hospitalizations doubled significantly during the study period (an increase of 103.7%, from 159.7 opioid hospitalizations per million Canadians in 2000 to 325.3 in 2012). The adjusted rate of emergency department visits increased significantly by 188.7% (from 280.6 per million in 2000 to 810.1 in 2012). Case-fatality was 2.3% overall and was mainly constant during the study period. Both 90- and 365-day all-cause mortality increased significantly between 2000 and 2011 (from 1.7 to 3.1% and 3.9 to 7.4%, respectively), while re-hospitalization for opioid-related diagnoses was reduced (from 7.8 to 6.4% and 14.2 to 12.9%, respectively). Opioid-related mortality, hospitalization and emergency department visits in Canada have been increasing gradually since 2000.

Health Care Resources and 24,910 Deaths Due to Traffic Accidents: An Ecological Mortality Study in Poland.

Background: Deaths due to traffic accidents are preventable and the access to health care is an important determinant of traffic accident case fatality. This study aimed to assess the relation between mortality due to traffic accidents and health care resources (HCR), at the population level, in 66 sub-regions of Poland. Methods: An area-based HCR index was delivered from the rates of physicians, nurses, and hospital beds. Associations between mortality from traffic accidents and the HCR index were tested using multivariate Poisson regression models. Results: In the sub-regions studied, the average mortality from traffic accidents was 11.7 in 2010 and 9.3/100.000 in 2015. After adjusting for sex, age and over time trends in mortality, out-of-hospital deaths were more frequently compared to hospitalized fatal cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.68, 95% CI 1.45–1.93). Compared to sub-regions with high HCR, mortality from traffic accidents was higher in sub-regions with low and moderate HCR (IRR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.11–1.42 and IRR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.02–1.38, respectively), which reflected the differences in out-of-hospital mortality most pronounced in car accidents. Conclusions: Poor HCR is an important factor that explains the territorial differentiation of mortality due to traffic accidents in Poland. The high percentage of out-of-hospital deaths indicates the importance of preventive measures and the need for improvement in access to health care to reduce mortality due to traffic accidents.

Lower 24-Month Relative Survival among Black Patients with Non- Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: An Analysis of the SEER Data 1997-20

Recent progress in the therapies used in patients with Non- Hodgkin’s lymphoma has improved survival. The incidence has been reported to be decreasing in the last few years, accounting for 4% of all cancers. This study analyzed time trends for incidence, mortality, and prevalence of NHL

Levels and trends in Chagas disease-related mortality in Brazil, 2000–2019

Chagas disease remains an important public health problem with high morbidity and mortality in several Latin American countries. This nationwide population-based ecological study analyzes the epidemiological characteristics and time trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in Brazil, 2000–2019. We included all deaths reported in Brazil in which Chagas disease was mentioned in the death certificate either as an underlying or associated cause of death (multiple causes of death). Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) were calculated and time trends analysis was performed using joinpoint regression models. In the study period, a total of 22,663,092 deaths were recorded in Brazil. Chagas disease was identified in 122,291 deaths (0.54%), 94.788 (77.5%) as an underlying cause and 27,503 (22.5%) as an associated cause. Average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 3.22 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.14-3.30). Chronic Chagas disease with cardiac involvement was the predominant clinical presentation mentioned. The highest mortality rates were observed in males, age group ≥80 years, black race/skin color, schooling 1-3 years of study, and residents in the Central-West region. Age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant declining trend at the national level in the period (Average Annual Percent Change: -3.1%; 95% CI: -3.3; -3.0), with different local patterns and a more pronounced reduction in important endemic areas in the past. The findings show that, despite a consistent decline in mortality rates in Brazil over the study period, Chagas disease remains an important and neglected cause of death in the country, showing a marked regional variation that has social and health care implications. In addition to the control measures for disease transmission, it is necessary to guarantee access, coverage, and quality of health care to Chagas disease patients, seeking to prevent the occurrence of severe forms and deaths from the disease.

Non-COVID-19 patients in times of pandemic: Emergency department visits, hospitalizations and cause-specific mortality in Northern Italy.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced healthcare services organization to adjust to mutating healthcare needs. Not exhaustive data are available on the consequences of this on non-COVID-19 patients. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the pandemic on non-COVID-19 patients living in a one-million inhabitants’ area in Northern Italy (Bologna Metropolitan Area-BMA), analyzing time trends of Emergency Department (ED) visits, hospitalizations and mortality. We conducted a retrospective observational study using data extracted from BMA healthcare informative systems. Weekly trends of ED visits, hospitalizations, in- and out-of-hospital, all-cause and cause-specific mortality between December 1st, 2019 to May 31st, 2020, were compared with those of the same period of the previous year. Non-COVID-19 ED visits and hospitalizations showed a stable trend until the first Italian case of COVID-19 has been recorded, on February 19th, 2020, when they dropped simultaneously. The reduction of ED visits was observed in all age groups and across all severity and diagnosis groups. In the lockdown period a significant increase was found in overall out-of-hospital mortality (43.2%) and cause-specific out-of-hospital mortality related to neoplasms (76.7%), endocrine, nutritional and metabolic (79.5%) as well as cardiovascular (32.7%) diseases. The pandemic caused a sudden drop of ED visits and hospitalizations of non-COVID-19 patients during the lockdown period, and a concurrent increase in out-of-hospital mortality mainly driven by deaths for neoplasms, cardiovascular and endocrine diseases. As recurrencies of the COVID-19 pandemic are underway, the scenario described in this study might be useful to understand both the population reaction and the healthcare system response at the early phases of the pandemic in terms of reduced demand of care and systems capability in intercepting it.

Time trends of major cancers incidence and mortality in Guangzhou, China 2004-2015: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

BackgroundCancer is an important focus of public health worldwide. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in incidence and mortality of leading cancer in Guangzhou, China from 2004 to 2015.MethodsData were collected from the population‐based registry in Guangzhou. Age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age‐standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used for evaluating the average annual percent changes (AAPC) among the entire study period and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in time segments. The effects of age, period, and birth cohort were assessed by the age–period–cohort model.ResultsThe age‐standardized incidence and mortality by the world standard population decreased significantly among males with AAPC of −1.7% (95% CI: −3.0%, 0.2%) and −2.7% (95% CI: −4.3%, −1.1%) for all malignancies during 2004–2015, while among females, the age‐standardized incidence had a non‐significant reduction with AAPC of −1.3% (95% CI: −2.8%, 0.2%) and the age‐standardized mortality demonstrated a remarkable decline (AAPC −2.0%, 95% CI: −3.6%, −0.3%). For males, the most commonly diagnosed cancers were trachea, bronchus, and lung (TBL), liver, colorectal, nasopharyngeal, stomach, and prostate cancer. For females, breast, TBL, colorectal, liver stomach, and thyroid cancer ranked the top. Unfavorable trends were observed in ASIR of colorectal, thyroid, and prostate cancer. APC models yielded different ages, periods, and birth cohort effect patterns by cancer sites.ConclusionsCancer burden remained a public health challenge in Guangzhou as the aging population and lifestyles changes, despite declines in incidence and mortality rates in some cancers. Surveillance of cancer trends contributed to valuable insights into cancer prevention and control.

Four Decades of COPD Mortality Trends: Analysis of Trends and Multiple Causes of Death.

There is little information on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality trends, age of death, or male:female ratio. This study therefore sought to analyze time trends in mortality with COPD recorded as the underlying cause of death from 1980 through 2017, and with COPD recorded other than as the underlying cause of death. We conducted an analysis of COPD deaths in Galicia (Spain) from 1980 through 2017, including those in which COPD was recorded other than as the underlying cause of death from 2015 through 2017. We calculated the crude and standardized rates, and analyzed mortality trends using joinpoint regression models. There were 43,234 COPD deaths, with a male:female ratio of 2.4. Median age of death was 82 years. A change point in the mortality trend was detected in 1996 with a significant decrease across the sexes, reflected by an annual percentage change of −3.8%. Taking deaths into account in which COPD participated or contributed without being the underlying cause led to an overall 42% increase in the mortality burden. The most frequent causes of death when COPD was not considered to be the underlying cause were bronchopulmonary neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. COPD mortality has decreased steadily across the sexes in Galicia since 1996, and age of death has also gradually increased. Multiple-cause death analysis may help prevent the underestimation of COPD mortality.

Social inequalities and COVID-19 mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil.

BackgroundHeterogeneity in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality is often associated with a country's health-services structure and social inequality. This study aimed to characterize social inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in São Paulo, the most populous city in Brazil and Latin America.MethodsWe conducted a population-based study, including COVID-19 deaths among São Paulo residents from March to September 2020. Age-standardized mortality rates and unadjusted rate ratios (RRs) [with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] were estimated by race, sex, age group, district of residence, household crowding, educational attainment, income level and percentage of households in subnormal areas in each district. Time trends in mortality were assessed using the Joinpoint model.ResultsMales presented an 84% increase in COVID-19 mortality compared with females (RR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.79–1.90). Higher mortality rates were observed for Blacks (RR = 1.77, 95% CI 1.67–1.88) and mixed (RR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.37–1.47) compared with Whites, whereas lower mortality was noted for Asians (RR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.58–0.68). A positive gradient was found for all socio-economic indicators, i.e. increases in disparities denoted by less education, more household crowding, lower income and a higher concentration of subnormal areas were associated with higher mortality rates. A decrease in mortality over time was observed in all racial groups, but it started earlier among Whites and Asians.ConclusionOur results reveal striking social inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in São Paulo, exposing structural inequities in Brazilian society that were not addressed by the governmental response to COVID-19. Without an equitable response, COVID-19 will further exacerbate current social inequalities in São Paulo.

Causes of Time Trends in Prevalence and Mortality of Major Cancers Among U.S. Older Adults

The time trend of prevalence and mortality of major cancers is the result of three competing processes: changes in the incidence rate, stage-specific survival, and ascertainment at early stages. Partitioning approach allows for evaluating the relative contribution of each of these competing processes to the overall trend. In this report we applied the partitioning methodology developed for the SEER registry data for prostate, colorectal, lung, female breast, bladder, ovarian, stomach, pancreas, kidney, liver cancers and melanoma. The analysis involves the design and estimation of four models for each cancer site: i) incidence rate using the Armitage-Doll model with individual predisposition modeled by the gamma distribution, ii) probability of relative survival after cancer diagnosis using the Weibull model for time after disease onset, iii) frequencies of stage at onset, and iv) mortality in the general population using the Gompertz model. B-splines are used to fit the time patterns of model parameters obtained for each year Relative contributions of the partitioning components were evaluated for individual cancers (e.g., increase of prevalence in prostate cancer in 2000 was due to increased incidence (59%), improved survival (29%), and improve stage ascertainment (12%)) and compared among all considered cancers. The results were discussed in the light of the effect of the accumulation of survivors occurring in early years (due to improving survival) and their higher mortality (because of higher prevalence of survivors) in later years (i.e., mortality is transferred to latter time periods due to overall improvements in survival).

37-year incidence and mortality time trends of common cancer types by sex, age, and stage in the canton of Zurich

The Cancer Registry Zurich, Zug, Schaffhausen and Schwyz is one of the oldest cancer registries in Switzerland, first registering tumours in 1980 for the canton of Zurich. The aim of this study was to analyse trends in incidence and mortality for the most common types of cancer in the canton of Zurich from 1981 to 2017. In this analysis of population-based cancer registry data, we included malignant tumours of the breast (ICD10 C50), prostate (C61), colon/rectum (C18&ndash;C21), lung (C33&ndash;C34), and melanoma (C43), diagnosed between 1981 and 2017. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were computed using the 1976 European Standard Population. Incidence and mortality time trends were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis. In men, incidence for prostate cancer and melanoma increased over the study period, while it decreased for colon/rectum and lung cancer. A joinpoint for prostate cancer indicated the start of a decreasing trend in 2002. In women, incidence increased for breast cancer, lung cancer and melanoma; no trend was observed for colon/rectum cancer. Cancer mortality decreased for prostate, colon/rectum and lung cancer in men, with no clear trend for melanoma. In women, mortality decreased for breast cancer, colon/rectum cancer and melanoma, but increased for lung cancer. The overall increasing incidence trends for prostate and breast cancer, as well as for melanoma, are in line with data from other Western countries. While lung cancer incidence is decreasing in men, it is still on the rise in women. Despite increasing incidence rates, mortality rates are decreasing for all localisations except for lung cancer in women. The opposite direction of incidence and mortality curves is probably mostly due to better and more effective treatment options, as well as earlier detection.

Temporal trend of cancer mortality in a Brazilian state with a medium Human Development Index (1980\u20132018)

Emerging economy countries in epidemiological transition have been especially challenged in the fight against cancer. This was an ecological study that aimed to describe the temporal trend of cancer mortality in a Brazilian northeastern state with a medium Human Development Index using official Brazilian mortality data from 1980 to 2018. We calculated the mortality crude rate (CR) and age-standardized rate (ASR) based on official population counts and estimates. The Joinpoint Regression Program, National Cancer Institute, USA, was used to calculate time trends of cancer mortality. There were 34,214 deaths from cancer, excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer, in Sergipe. The overall cancer mortality ASR was 70.1 and 57.9 per 100,000 men and women, respectively. For the last five years, the leading causes of cancer deaths were prostate (21.3), trachea, bronchus and lung (11.7), stomach (6.5), oral cavity (5.4) and liver and intrahepatic bile ducts (5.1) in males and breast (13.8), trachea, bronchus and lung (6.6), cervix (6.4), colon/rectum (5.8) and central nervous system (3.6) in females. In addition, there was a significant reduction in deaths from ill-defined causes in the series. Our results show that although there has been an increase in cancer mortality rates associated with Western lifestyles, such as prostate, breast and colon/rectum, high rates of cancer related to poverty and infections, such as stomach and cervix, still persist in Sergipe.

Non-COVID-19 Patients in Times of Pandemic: Decreased Emergency Department Visits and Increased Out-of-Hospital Mortality in Northern Italy

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic forced healthcare services organization to adjust to healthcare needs of a mutating population. In this context, our aim was to assess the short-term impact of the pandemic on non-COVID-19 patients living in a one-million inhabitants area in Northern Italy (Bologna Metropolitan Area-BMA), analyzing time trends of ED visits, hospitalizations and mortality.Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study using data extracted from BMA healthcare informative systems. Weekly trends of ED visits, hospitalizations, in- and out-of-hospital, all-cause and cause-specific mortality between December 1st, 2019 to May 31st, 2020, were compared with those of the same period of the previous year, using Joinpoint regression models and incidence rate ratios.Findings: Non-COVID-19 ED visits and hospitalizations showed a stable trend until the first Italian case hospitalized for COVID-19 has been recorded, on February 19th, 2020, when they dropped simultaneously with the growth of the SARS-CoV-2 curve. The marked reduction of ED visits was observed in all age groups and across all severity codes and diagnosis groups. In the lockdown period a significant increase was found in overall out-of-hospital mortality (43·2%) and cause-specific out-of-hospital mortality related to neoplasms (76·7%), endocrine, nutritional and metabolic (79·5%) as well as cardiovascular (32·7%) diseases.Interpretation: Our main finding is a sudden drop of ED visits and hospitalizations of non-COVID-19 patients during the pandemic and the concurrent increase in out-of-hospital mortality, particularly for neoplasms, cardiovascular and endocrine diseases. As a second phase of the COVID-19 pandemic is currently underway, the scenario described in this study might be useful to understand both the population reaction and the healthcare system response at the early phases of the pandemic in terms of reduced demand of care and systems capability in intercepting it.Fundings: This study received no specific funding.Declaration of Interests: All the authors declare no conflict of interests.Ethics Approval Statement: The study was approved by the Emilia Romagna Ethical Committee on August 3rd, 2020.

Climate vulnerability of Swedish newborns: Gender differences and time trends of temperature-related neonatal mortality, 1880–1950

BackgroundIn resource-poor societies, neonatal mortality (death in the first 28 days of life) is usually very high. Young infants are particularly vulnerable to environmental health risks, which are modified by socioeconomic factors that change over time. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and neonatal mortality in northern Sweden during the demographic transition. MethodsParish register data and temperature data in coastal Västerbotten, Sweden, between 1880 and 1950 were used. Total and sex-specific neonatal mortality was modelled as a function of mean temperature, adjusting for age, seasonality and calendar time, using discrete-time survival analysis. A linear threshold function was applied with a cut point at 14.5 °C (the minimum mortality temperature). Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. Further analyses were stratified by study period (1800–1899, 1900–1929, and 1930–1950). ResultsNeonatal mortality was 32.1 deaths/1000 live births, higher in boys than in girls, and decreased between 1880 and 1950, with high inter-annual variability. Mean daily temperature was +2.5 °C, ranging from −40.9 °C to +28.8 °C. At −20 °C, the OR of neonatal death was 1.56 (CI 1.30–1.87) compared to the reference at +14.5 °C. Among girls, the OR of mortality at −20 °C was 1.17 (0.88–1.54), and among boys, it was 1.94 (1.53–2.45). A temperature increase from +14.5 to +20 °C was associated with a 25% increase of neonatal mortality (OR 1.25, CI 1.04–1.50). Heat- and cold-related risks were lowest between 1900 and 1929. ConclusionsIn this remote sub-Arctic region undergoing socio-economic changes, we found an increased mortality risk in neonates related to low but also to high temperature. Climate vulnerability varied across time and was particularly high among boys. This demonstrates that environmental impacts on human health are complex and highly dependent on the specific local context, with many, often unknown, contributing determinants of vulnerability.

Survival Trends in Patients Under Age 65 Years With Mantle Cell Lymphoma, 1995-2016: A SEER-Based Analysis.

Purpose: The treatment paradigm for mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), a B-cell malignancy, has shifted considerably during the past decades. This study aimed to evaluate time trends in overall survival (OS) and disease-specific mortality (DSM) of younger (age ≤ 65 years) patients with MCL from 1995 to 2016.Methods: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Year of diagnosis was divided into three eras: the chemotherapy-alone era (1995–2000), intensified-immunochemotherapy era (2001–2012), and targeted-therapy era (2013–2016). We used the Kaplan–Meier method, log-rank test, and subdistribution proportional hazard regression in the analysis.Results: A total 4,892 patients were identified. Median OS increased from 67 months in the chemotherapy-alone era to 107 months in the intensified-immunochemotherapy era (P < 0.001). The DSM rate decreased significantly from 1995 to 2016 (P < 0.001); the adjusted hazard ratios of MCL-specific death were 0.589 (P < 0.001) for the intensified-immunochemotherapy era and 0.459 (P < 0.001) for targeted-therapy era, as compared with the chemotherapy-alone era. Patients with advanced-stage MCL exhibited lowering risk of death across the three eras (P < 0.001).Conclusions: During 1995–2016, survival in younger patients with MCL increased significantly, especially those with advanced-stage disease, potentially reflecting the impact of advancement in treatment modalities on MCL outcome.

Age-sex specific pulmonary embolism-related mortality in the USA and Canada, 2000–18: an analysis of the WHO Mortality Database and of the CDC Multiple Cause of Death database

BackgroundPulmonary embolism (PE)-related mortality is decreasing in Europe. However, time trends in the USA and Canada remain uncertain because the most recent analyses of PE-related mortality were published in the early 2000s.MethodsFor this retrospective epidemiological study, we accessed medically certified vital registration data from the WHO Mortality Database (USA and Canada, 2000–17) and the Multiple Cause of Death database produced by the Division of Vital Statistics of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC; US, 2000–18). We investigated contemporary time trends in PE-related mortality in the USA and Canada and the prevalence of conditions contributing to PE-related mortality reported on the death certificates. We also estimated PE-related mortality by age group and sex. A subgroup analysis by race was performed for the USA.FindingsIn the USA, the age-standardised annual mortality rate (PE as the underlying cause) decreased from 6·0 deaths per 100 000 population (95% CI 5·9–6·1) in 2000 to 4·4 deaths per 100 000 population (4·3–4·5) in 2006. Thereafter, it continued to decrease to 4·1 deaths per 100 000 population (4·0–4·2) in women in 2017 and plateaued at 4·5 deaths per 100 000 population (4·4–4·7) in men in 2017. Among adults aged 25–64 years, it increased after 2006. The median age at death from PE decreased from 73 years to 68 years (2000–18). The prevalence of cancer, respiratory diseases, and infections as a contributing cause of PE-related death increased in all age categories from 2000 to 2018. The annual age-standardised PE-related mortality was consistently higher by up to 50% in Black individuals than in White individuals; these rates were approximately 50% higher in White individuals than in those of other races. In Canada, the annual age-standardised mortality rate from PE as the underlying cause of death decreased from 4·7 deaths per 100 000 population (4·4–5·0) in 2000 to 2·6 deaths per 100 000 population (2·4–2·8) in 2017; this decline slowed after 2006 across age groups and sexes.InterpretationAfter 2006, the initially decreasing PE-related mortality rates in North America progressively reached a plateau in Canada, while a rebound increase was observed among young and middle-aged adults in the USA. These findings parallel recent upward trends in mortality from other cardiovascular diseases and might reflect increasing inequalities in the exposure to risk factors and access to health care.FundingNone.