Cross-sectional Time-series Data Research Articles

Do populist presidents crowd out FDI inflows? The role of ideology and sectoral characteristics

This study examines nuanced interplay between populist governance, ideological orientation and sectoral characteristics in shaping foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in Latin America, a region where left wing, centrist and right wing populist presidents have frequently challenged established institutions but adopted divergent approaches to FDI across sectors. Using time series cross-sectional data from 18 Latin American countries between 2003 and 2021, this study found that populist tendencies under left wing presidents were associated with significant decreases of FDI inflows, a pattern not observed under centrist or right wing populist presidents. At the sectoral level, left wing populist tendencies deterred FDI in manufacturing and resource sectors, while infrastructure-related FDI remained largely unaffected. In contrast, centrist and right wing populist tendencies were positively associated with FDI inflows across all sectors. These findings underscore populism as a source of institutional volatility and potential deterrent to FDI. They also highlight the critical role of ideology and sectoral characteristics in influencing the populism–FDI nexus across Latin America.

Study Of The Influence Of Public Expenditure And Macroeconomic Variables On The Happiness Index In Sumatera

This study aims to analyze the effect of public spending and macroeconomic variables (local government size, per capita GRDP, Gini coefficient, unemployment, inflation and tax revenue) on the happiness index in Sumatra. The types of data used in this study are cross-section data and time series data. Cross-section data covers 10 provinces in Sumatra, namely Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Lampung, Bangka Belitung Islands and Riau Islands. While the time series data consists of data from 2014, 2017 and 2021. The data sources are secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency and the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance, Ministry of Finance. The data were analyzed using the panel data regression method with the Common Effect Model approach. The results of the study show that Per Capita Income and Inflation have a significant effect on the happiness index in Sumatra. Meanwhile, public spending, local government size, Gini coefficient, unemployment rate, and local tax revenue do not show a significant effect on happiness. These findings suggest that while economic factors and the size of local government play an important role in improving well-being, the direct impact on people's happiness is influenced by a complex of other factors, including people's perceptions, social inequality, and the efficiency of resource management.

More pubs-More problems? A longitudinal analysis of Swedish panel data.

The aim of the study is to estimate the association between bar density and nighttime emergency calls to the police. We used a pooled cross-sectional time-series data set covering the Swedish 290 municipalities spanning the time period 2012-2021. As outcome we used nighttime emergency calls to the police and daytime emergency calls to the police as control variable. Bar density was measured as number of serving establishments licensed to serve alcohol after 1 am. The municipalities were classified into three socio-economic (SES) categories: low, middle and high-SES areas. We used survey data to estimate the prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (HED) for each of the three SES areas. We applied fixed-effects modelling to estimate the association between bar density and nighttime police calls, implying that only within-unit variation was exploited. Findings suggested that a 10% increase in bar density would result in a 0.46% (p = 0.001) increase in nighttime police calls. There was a marked gradient in the bar effect across SES areas; in high-SES areas the effect was not significant, while the effect was twice as strong in the low-SES areas as in mid-SES areas. We also found that the lower the status of the SES area, the higher the prevalence of HED. We found a significantly positive association between bar density and nighttime police calls. However, the association was markedly stronger in low-SES areas (which were also characterised by an elevated HED prevalence) than in high-SES areas (distinguished by a lower HED prevalence).

The impact of the kingpin strategy on extortion and kidnapping

The ‘kingpin’ strategy focuses on dismantling criminal groups by apprehending their leaders. However, existing evidence indicates that removing a criminal leader may lead to a surge in organised crime-related homicides, and to spatial displacement of organised crime violence. This study explores the strategy’s impact on other organised crimes, specifically extortion and kidnapping. Analysing Mexican data from 2011 to 2015, we employ a novel matching method for cross-sectional time-series data to assess how leadership removals affect the incidence of extortion and kidnapping, and whether there are any displacement effects. Our results reveal a significant rise in extortions within 6 months of a leadership removal in a municipality, while kidnappings show no significant change. Notably, no spatial displacement effects were observed in neighbouring municipalities post-removal. These findings underscore the unintended consequences of the kingpin strategy, emphasising the need for alternative policies to address organised crime-related violence.

Domestic renewable energy industries and national decarbonization policy

Does the growth of renewable energy industries catalyze national decarbonization policy? The idea that stronger domestic renewable energy industries increase the political feasibility of stringent energy and climate policies aiming to phase out fossil fuels has been championed by proponents of policy sequencing and underpins the global pivot to green industrial policy. Yet, the conditions necessary for such an effect to materialize have not been fully spelled out and its empirical veracity not been systematically scrutinized. This paper contends that the willingness and ability of renewable energy industries to influence policy should be weaker for fossil fuel phaseout policies compared to green industrial policies because of more diffuse material interests, less access to policymaking, and stronger countermobilization. The first large-scale investigation of this relation using extensive time-series cross-sectional data provides no evidence of a systematic positive effect of renewable energy industry strength on carbon pricing or fossil fuel subsidy phaseouts. These findings challenge the widespread argument that the emergence of domestic low-carbon industries translates into more ambitious decarbonization policy. Scholars and policymakers should scrutinize the mechanisms and scope conditions underlying this assumed relationship.

Do board characteristics matter in the relationship between intellectual capital efficiency and firm value? Evidence from the Nigerian oil and gas downstream sector

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the moderating effects of board characteristics such as board size, chief executive officer duality, number of board meetings, and diversity, on the relationship between intellectual capital efficiency and firm value in the Nigerian oil and gas downstream sector.Design/methodology/approachWe collected time-series cross-sectional data from eight (8) downstream-sector oil and gas companies quoted on the Nigerian Exchange Group for the period 2004–2020. We analysed the data using Prais–Winsten regression with panel-corrected standard errors.FindingsOverall, our results show no significant direct relationship between the modified value-added intellectual coefficient and our two measures of firm value (Tobin’s Q and Price Earnings Ratio (PER)). However, the board size is found to moderate the intellectual capital efficiency–PER relationship significantly and negatively, whereas board diversity significantly positively moderates the association between the modified value-added intellectual coefficient and PER. Our multi-theory framework, which blends clean surplus, agency, stakeholder, and resource-based theories is found to be relevant in underpinning this study.Research limitations/implicationsThe research relies on 17-year panel data for eight downstream-sector oil and gas companies. Consequently, future research within intellectual capital efficiency in Nigeria could incorporate related sectors like midstream and upstream to enable comparability and expand generalization.Practical implicationPolicymakers may adopt the study findings to serve as a robust empirical base to demand improved board diversity as a catalyst for boosting the potency of the intellectual capital efficiency-firm value relationship.Originality/valueFirstly, to the best of our knowledge, this study is the pioneer attempt to use board characteristics as moderators of the relationship between intellectual capital efficiency and firm value. Secondly, we develop and use a novel theoretical framework that combines clean surplus, agency, stakeholder, and resource-based theories to underpin the study.

Macroeconomic antecedents of racial disparities in psychiatric-related emergency department visits.

To test whether monthly declines in aggregate employment precede a rise in African American psychiatric-related ED visits (PREDVs) relative to white visits among low-income, working-age populations. This study used repeated cross-sectional time series data for 6.7 million PREDVs among African Americans and white individuals from the State Emergency Department Database in 48 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) across four states (Arizona, California, New York, New Jersey) from 2006 to 2011. MSA-level monthly employment data were obtained from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome was specified as the race of a PREDV (African American = 1, white = 0). The exposure was operationalized as monthly percent change in MSA-level aggregate employment lagged by 0 to 3 months. Analysis included logistic regressions with county, month and year fixed effects, and clustered standard errors to examine the relation between odds of an African American PREDV (relative to white) following 0 to 3 months lag of MSA-level aggregate employment change. Logistic regression results indicate that the odds of PREDVs for publicly insured, working-age African Americans (relative to white individuals) increase 3 months after ambient employment decline (OR: 0.994, 95% CI: [0.990 0.998]). Economic downturns may marginally increase psychiatric help-seeking in EDs among publicly insured (low-income), working-age African Americans relative to white individuals. Findings from this study may contribute to the theoretical understanding of dynamic drivers of racial disparities in psychiatric ED visits.

A decade of Eurasian integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian economic union

This paper provides a sound ex-post evaluation of the impact of the Eurasian integration on member countries’ bilateral trade after a decade of implementation. We overcome the main limitations of current empirical analyses on the effects of trade agreements, namely the aggregation of tariff and non-tariff barriers and the likely self-selection bias, by applying a non-parametric method specifically designed to fully exploit time-series cross-sectional data. We thus compare the trade flows of the member countries in the Eurasian agreement with the exporter-importer pairs located in the Eurasian continent, which are most similar in terms of pre-treatment trends and features. Our results confirm the previous literature about the lack of a significant impact of the Eurasian customs union but find more positive net effects of the more recent integration steps. Our results ask for additional efforts to complete the Eurasian integration and let its member countries fully benefit from its hoped-for long-term effects.

The Effect of Regional Financial Autonomy on Economic Growth in Aceh Province

The condition of regional financial independence in Aceh Province is not optimal, so it is expected to affect economic growth. Previous studies have only descriptively explored the condition of the regional financial independence level in Aceh Province. They did not analyze how it affects economic growth. It is important to study this because Aceh is highly dependent on the transfer of funds from the central government. Therefore, this study will investigate the effect of financial independence, degree of fiscal decentralization, and revenue effectiveness as indicators of regional financial independence on economic growth in Aceh Province, Indonesia. The panel data regression method is used to analyze the data, where this study uses panel data consisting of 23 districts/cities in Aceh Province as cross-section data and time series data in an annual form from 2018 to 2022. The data applied were sourced from the Aceh Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance. The findings show that financial independence has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, the degree of fiscal decentralization has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, and revenue effectiveness is not significant on economic growth. It is recommended that district/municipal governments in Aceh Province maximize financial independence to avoid being at the instructive level by increasing PAD and reducing dependence on external funds.

Moving the electoral goalposts: State and local strategies of electoral intervention in the U.S.

Central to the partisan divide in American politics is disagreement over the fundamental legitimacy of American elections. Due to the decentralized nature of election administration in the US, these disagreements have led to a complex web of heterogeneous electoral institutions. Scholars have made impressive progress on untangling the effects of these different institutions — unfortunately, less is known about the sources of adoption of such proposals. Using time-series cross-sectional data on the adoption of various electoral policies by state governments from 2001–2018, I examine the role of politics and identity in shaping the types of electoral interventions adopted by state legislatures during an important period of increasing politicization of such interventions. Applying dynamic panel models and constructing a novel measure of the concentration of Black population within competitive congressional districts, I find that the effects of race, competition, and ideology on electoral interventions differ across both partisan lines and issue areas.

Determinants of private-sector antibiotic consumption in India: findings from a quasi-experimental fixed-effects regression analysis using cross-sectional time-series data, 2011–2019

The consumption of antibiotics varies between and within countries. However, our understanding of the key drivers of antibiotic consumption is largely limited to observational studies. Using Indian data that showed substantial differences between states and changes over years, we conducted a quasi-experimental fixed-effects regression study to examine the determinants of private-sector antibiotic consumption. Antibiotic consumption decreased by 10.2 antibiotic doses per 1000 persons per year for every ₹1000 (US$12.9) increase in per-capita gross domestic product. Antibiotic consumption decreased by 46.4 doses per 1000 population per year for every 1% increase in girls’ enrollment rate in tertiary education. The biggest determinant of private sector antibiotic use was government spending on health—antibiotic use decreased by 461.4 doses per 1000 population per year for every US$12.9 increase in per-capita government health spending. Economic progress, social progress, and increased public investment in health can reduce private-sector antibiotic use.

Unions, technology and social class inequalities in the US, 1984–2019

Earnings inequality in the US has risen in recent decades, with social class inequalities being a central component of this trend. While technological change and de-unionisation are considered key contributors to increased earnings dispersion, their specific influence on inequalities between employees’ social classes has received limited attention. This study theoretically and empirically investigates the relationship between technological change, de-unionisation and the earnings trajectories of occupational classes from 1984 to 2019. The empirical analysis uses industry-level time-series cross-section data and industry-level measures of union density, computer investments and class earnings. Descriptive analyses show earnings growth for non-manual classes and stagnant or declining earnings for manual ones. Results provide limited evidence that computerisation affected classes differently in the industries where introduced. In contrast, industry-level de-unionisation reinforced class inequalities in two ways. First, unionisation exhibited a stronger association with lower-class earnings. Second, manual workers were more prevalent in industries that experienced substantial declines in union density.

Varying effects of public pensions: Pension spending and old-age employment under different pension regimes

Socioeconomic consequences of pension reforms have often been discussed without careful consideration of institutional contexts, despite the fact that institutional designs of public pensions differ substantially across countries. This study argues that the outcomes of pension reforms vary depending on the institutional structure of public pensions, by showing that the associations between public pension spending and old-age employment rates of different socio-demographic groups vary across different institutional contexts. Using time-series cross-section data from 20 European countries and the United States from 1998 to 2019, the study examines how changes in public pension spending ‘per older person’, a comparable measure for the welfare state effort towards old-age income security, are associated with gender- and education-specific employment rates in old age. The study also explores how these associations differ under different pension regimes, constructed based on the degree to which financing and benefit structures exhibit redistributive orientations. The results reveal complex gender and educational gradients in the relationship between public pension spending and old-age employment. Female employment rates, especially among the low-educated, are more sensitive to changes in pension spending in the ‘Beveridgean’ regime that focuses on basic income security. In the Bismarckian regime characterized by earnings-related pensions, educational differences in the marginal effects on male employment rates are, in particular, larger. Future pension reforms balancing the goal of activation and social equity should therefore consider the longstanding institutional design of public pensions.

Ideological cleavages beyond the nation-state: The emergence of transnational political groups in international parliaments

AbstractTerritorial divisions are commonly believed to dominate the international realm, supposedly leaving no room for ideological distinctions to take shape. However, the formation of over fifty transnational political groups (TPGs) across thirteen international parliaments challenges this assumption, calling into question the previously accepted insignificance of ideology beyond the boundaries of the nation-state. Previously unexplored in comparative perspective, this paper investigates TPGs’ puzzling existence and delineates the conditions for their emergence within international parliaments. The theoretical argument is that homogeneity across the member states of the international parliament along three dimensions – political systems, economic development levels and geographical proximity – fosters the creation of transnational political groups. Results from regression analysis on time series cross-sectional data lend support to the theory. With the rise of international parliamentary institutions and their increased involvement in supranational decision-making over time, it becomes highly important to understand how they organize as well as the implications of their institutional designs.

Understanding the Impact of Demographic Factors and Education Policy on Enrollment Trends: A Study in China

This study addresses the complex interplay between demographic factors and educational enrollment trends in China, with a focus on understanding how population dynamics and education policies influence enrollment patterns. Utilizing a cross-sectional design and time series data from 2010 to 2020, the research examines the effects of population size, structure, distribution, and birth rate on enrollment trends, moderated by education policy assessments. The findings reveal significant correlations between demographic factors and enrollment trends. Specifically, as population size increases, enrollment tends to decrease, while decreasing birth rates are associated with increased enrollment. Urban areas show higher enrollment rates compared to rural areas, reflecting disparities in access to educational resources. However, the study finds mixed evidence regarding the influence of population average age on enrollment trends. Moreover, the research investigates the moderating effect of education policy assessments on demographic factors. While education policies have a positive moderation effect on population size and birth rate, the study suggests limited impact on the relationship between population average age and enrollment trends. This study provides valuable insights for educational planning and policy development, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments to accommodate changing population dynamics and ensure continued access to quality education. Additionally, the predictive model developed in this study offers a practical tool for understanding enrollment patterns and guiding policy decisions in the educational sector. However, the study acknowledges limitations related to generalizability and the complexity of external factors influencing enrollment trends, highlighting avenues for future research to enhance the predictive model and deepen understanding of enrollment dynamics.

Politics of Boundary Consolidation: Income Inequality, Ethnonationalism, and Radical-Right Voting

Scholars have linked income inequality to the recent success of radical-right parties and movements. Yet research shows that inequality reduces participation among groups likely to support the radical right and promotes support for redistribution, an issue championed by the radical left. This raises questions about why, if at all, inequality matters for radical-right politics. The author reconciles previous arguments by developing a theory that connects these phenomena through the process of boundary consolidation. He argues that inequality generates status threats that prompt exclusionary shifts in national group boundaries. This promotes ethnonationalism, a restrictive conception of national membership and, ultimately, support for the radical right, whose mobilization relies on ethnonationalist appeals. Analyses of time-series cross-sectional data from 38 countries support this theory, revealing that inequality is associated with greater ethnonationalism, with distinct associations by income and ethnicity, and that ethnonationalism strongly predicts radical-right voting. The author thus demonstrates how long-term structural changes are linked to contemporary radical politics and how arguments setting economic and cultural causes of the radical right in opposition are inadequate.

Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper empirically analyses the relationship between Economic Growth measured in terms of GDP Growth and Government Expenditure, GDP and Population. It employs annual cross-section time series data of the concerned variable of 117 countries from 2001 to 2021. Random Effect model was used for the analysis. The pool-ability of data is tested by the Breusch and Pagan LM test which confirmed that Pooled OLS is not appropriate for the model. The Hausman Specification Test was then conducted for choosing between the Fixed Effect or Random Effect model. The Hausman Specification Test for the Model suggests the Random effect model is appropriate for the analysis of the data. Thus, Random effect regression is used to find the consequences of explanatory and the control variables on the dependent variable. Government Expenditure as an explanatory variable has a positive relationship with the Economic Growth, even in the case of controlling for Population and the Trade Openness. Both the control variable is depicted to have positive relationship with the Economic Growth.

Where there’s a will, there’s a way: Border walls and refugees

Over the last decade, there has been a notable surge in the movement of refugees across international borders, posing significant challenges for the international community. In response, various policy measures have been implemented, including the construction of border walls, with the aim of impeding refugee influx. However, scholars have expressed doubts regarding the effectiveness of these fortifications, suggesting that walls merely redirect migrants to alternative routes, discourage return migration, or alter migrants’ cost–benefit calculations. Despite these concerns, there has been a lack of rigorous testing to support or refute these claims beyond case-specific evidence. This article addresses this research gap by thoroughly examining the arguments surrounding the impact of border fencing on refugee flows. We conduct a systematic, cross-national test of these arguments with a two-way fixed-effects estimator, an equivalence test, and a recently developed matching estimator designed for use on time-series cross-sectional data. Our results strongly support those who are skeptical of the impact of walls. We consistently demonstrate either that border fencing has not had any causal impact on refugee flows between 1970 and 2017 or that the statistical state-of-the-art is incapable of discerning that true effect. In either scenario, the evidence suggests that border fences fail to deliver the anticipated outcomes. These findings hold significant implications as violence-driven refugee flows persist, underscoring that while walls may serve as politically attractive tools for populist leaders, their actual deterrent effects are highly questionable at best.

獨裁國家之下的權力個人化統治與社會福利支出：跨國資料分析

傳統觀點認為，因為選舉競爭促使民主國家領導人採取社會政策以爭取公民政治支持，所以民主國家比獨裁國家具有更多福利支出。然而，由於獨裁國家沒有選舉、或其選舉並不自由和／或不公平，因此本文的研究問題是：獨裁者與其盟友之間的權力分布如何影響福利支出？本文基於晚近發展的權力分享理論，討論權力分享結構對於威權國家福利支出的影響。當權力個人化統治程度較低，獨裁者面臨被其他精英取代的風險。我們認為，獨裁者藉由福利政策向公民分配資源，換取公民政治支持。當權力更集中於獨裁者，增加權力個人化統治將減少福利支出。我們使用1961年至2006年90個獨裁國家時間序列橫斷面資料檢驗我們論點。我們發現，總福利支出隨著獨裁者權力個人化統治的增加而減少。這種影響在不同模型設定中皆相當穩健。此一發現有助於理解獨裁國家權力個人化統治與福利支出間的聯繫。本文貢獻在於指出福利支出不僅由文獻認為的政權領導人需要公眾支持所決定，在獨裁國家中也是由其統治聯盟內部權力分布所決定。Conventional wisdom posits that democracies have more social welfare expenditure than dictatorships because electoral competition induces democratic leaders to adopt social policies in exchange for ordinary citizens’ political support. However, as elections are absent, unfree, and/or unfair in autocracies, the research question in this paper is: How does the distribution of power between dictators and their allies influence welfare spending? This paper discusses the power-sharing structure’s impact on welfare spending based on the theory of power-sharing in authoritarian regimes. When power is less personalized, dictators face the risk of being replaced by other elites. We argue that dictators allocate resources to citizens through welfare policies in exchange for their political support. Increasing personalism rules will reduce welfare spending when power is concentrated on dictators. We test our arguments using time-series cross-sectional data for 90 dictatorships from 1961 to 2006. We find that total welfare spending decreases as the personalization of power of the dictator increases. This effect is robust to different model specifications. This finding helps us to understand the connection between the personalization of power and welfare spending in dictatorships. This paper contributes to the literature by showing that welfare spending is determined by regime leaders’ need for public support as the conventional wisdom suggests, and by the power dynamics within their ruling coalitions in dictatorships.

Fiscal Moderating Effect for Sustaining the Upstream Petroleum Field Economics and Profitability: Inventory and Purchasing Performance

Introduction: The study literature's obvious limits with a complete fiscal term model for moderating variables are crucial to our investigation. In order to preserve petroleum field economics and profitability in Indonesia's petroleum business context, this study examines the relationship between material inventory performance, purchasing performance, and fiscal term moderating influence with an agglomeration approach. Theoretical Framework: Industry character strongly influences the inventory and purchasing performance relationship (Basu & Wang, 2011); Hofer et al., 2012); (Priniotakis & Argyropoulos, 2018). Despite circumstances and fiscal terms that were not adaptive to environmental dynamism (Acquah-Andoh et al., 2019), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Contractors' upstream field economics deteriorated compared to the initial (Paramita, 2022). Financial term in fossil sector draws investors, ensuring fair economic performance and cost balance (Mardiana et al., 2019; Yun et al., 2020). Methodology: Cross-sectional time series data were collected over five years from 26 Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Contractors from Indonesia's upstream oil industry in the preliminary Plan of Development (POD) phase. Econometric analysis using multivariate structural equation modeling will test the model. Results and Discussions: The results showed that different financial performance agglomerations showed an inconsistent relationship between inventory performance, petroleum field economics, and profitability, but purchasing performance showed a positive relationship in any scheme, and fiscal terms significantly strengthened the relationship between variables. Conclusion: This study sheds light on whether fiscal term strengthening variables in the upstream petroleum company affect decision-making.