Understanding the Impact of Demographic Factors and Education Policy on Enrollment Trends: A Study in China

Abstract

This study addresses the complex interplay between demographic factors and educational enrollment trends in China, with a focus on understanding how population dynamics and education policies influence enrollment patterns. Utilizing a cross-sectional design and time series data from 2010 to 2020, the research examines the effects of population size, structure, distribution, and birth rate on enrollment trends, moderated by education policy assessments. The findings reveal significant correlations between demographic factors and enrollment trends. Specifically, as population size increases, enrollment tends to decrease, while decreasing birth rates are associated with increased enrollment. Urban areas show higher enrollment rates compared to rural areas, reflecting disparities in access to educational resources. However, the study finds mixed evidence regarding the influence of population average age on enrollment trends. Moreover, the research investigates the moderating effect of education policy assessments on demographic factors. While education policies have a positive moderation effect on population size and birth rate, the study suggests limited impact on the relationship between population average age and enrollment trends. This study provides valuable insights for educational planning and policy development, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments to accommodate changing population dynamics and ensure continued access to quality education. Additionally, the predictive model developed in this study offers a practical tool for understanding enrollment patterns and guiding policy decisions in the educational sector. However, the study acknowledges limitations related to generalizability and the complexity of external factors influencing enrollment trends, highlighting avenues for future research to enhance the predictive model and deepen understanding of enrollment dynamics.