Times Of High Prices Research Articles

Consumers' purchase behavior reactions: a focus on the steady devaluation of currency, compounding increase in inflation rates in Egypt

PurposeThis study investigates consumer purchase behavior during the steady devaluation of currency, which led to increase in inflation rates in Egypt.Design/methodology/approachThis study collected and analyzed numerical data to test the causal relationships found among the research model variables. Administrated questionnaires were distributed March 2023 in cross-sectional timeframe in several visits to hypermarkets, supermarkets and grocery stores in Cairo and Alexandria, applying nonprobability sample. Structure equation model path analysis was used to test the hypotheses.FindingsThis study shows compulsive buying, sense of anxiety, value shopping, attitude toward private label, attractiveness of local brands and materialistic behaviors impact consumers' acceptance of alternative brands; compulsive buying, sense of anxiety and materialistic behaviors impact the continuance of purchasing accustomed brands.Practical implicationsRetailers, government and policymakers can use this study as a guide to know how consumers react during times of high prices so to provide solutions to their needs. Policymakers should take into account the findings in managing the economy.Originality/valueThis study shows the effect of inflation on consumer spending to contribute to the body of knowledge in literature on the factors that influence consumer behaviors. A model was developed to frame the possible manners that might surface among consumers during times of high inflation; it reflected whether compulsive buying, sense of anxiety, value shopping, attitude toward private label, attractiveness of local brands and materialistic behaviors impact consumers acceptance of alternative brands and/or the continuance of purchasing accustomed brand.

Bilateral Contracting and Price-Based Demand Response in Multi-Agent Electricity Markets: A Study on Time-of-Use Tariffs

Electrical energy can be traded in liberalized organized markets or by negotiating private bilateral contracts. Competitive markets are central systems where market players can purchase and sell electrical energy. Bilateral contracting consists typically in a private negotiation of power over several months or years between two parties. Price-based demand response considers the active participation of consumers in electricity markets. Consumers adopt demand response programs when responding to market prices or tariffs, as they change over time. Those tariffs can be proposed by retailers by considering their load shape goals, influencing consumers to change their behavior. Consumers may adopt strategies from two different groups, namely by curtailing energy at times of high prices (e.g., peak and intermediate periods) and rescheduling energy away from those times to other times (shifting). This article considers bilateral contracting in electricity markets with demand response. It investigates how curtailment and shifting affect the energy quantity and energy cost of consumers that adopt a time-of-use tariff involving three block periods (i.e., base, intermediate and peak periods). The results indicate that consumers respond to changes in energy price according to their consumption flexibility, while retailers do not always change energy price in response to consumers’ efforts to change their consumption patterns. On average, by considering a 5% consumption reduction in the intermediate and peak periods by a consumer agent, a retailer agent reduces the energy price only by 1.5%.

Multiobjective Decision-Making Model for Power Scheduling Problem in Smart Homes

The aim of this study was to solve power scheduling issues in smart homes to enable demand response in smart grids. The objective of demand response is to match demand with supply by reflecting supply expectations through consumer price signals, and especially to avoid peak demand during times of high prices and when supply is limited. Three objectives were considered: first, economic rationing by minimizing the total costs for consumers with the given hourly prices; second, to achieve better efficiency in terms of supply and greater stability in a power system by reducing peaks in usage or load, which is defined by minimizing the percentage of power rate; third, related to consumer comfort levels, by reducing variance in the schedule of appliances to actual usage periods requested. This multiobjective power scheduling problem for smart homes (PHPSH) was explored using a nondominated sorting genetic algorithm, called NSGA-II. The results showed that the Pareto-optimal solutions from NSGA-II are compatible with the weighted-sum-based model from the literature, and viable alternatives are available for end users with different weighted objectives.

Separating Nuclear Reactors from the Power Block with Heat Storage to Improve Economics with Dispatchable Heat and Electricity

Markets are changing as the result of (1) the addition of variable wind and solar that causes highly volatile electricity prices and (2) the goal of a low-carbon economy. These changes require economic low-carbon dispatchable electricity, which is now provided by natural gas turbines, and dispatchable heat for industry and commerce. Moreover, nuclear plant requirements have changed in the last 50 years with high capital costs in western countries. An alternative plant design is described with the nuclear island separated from a nonnuclear power block by large-scale heat storage. All heat from the reactor is sent to heat storage. The nuclear reactor operates at base load and is sized to meet average energy demand over a period of days. Heat storage provides variable heat to industry and/or the power block. The nonnuclear power block is sized to provide peak electricity capacity (kilowatts) several times the nuclear reactor base-load power output to maximize revenue by sale of electricity at times of high prices. The power block capital cost (heat exchanger, turbine, and generator) per unit of generating capacity (kilowatt) is less than a conventional gas turbine that includes heat generation (compressor and burner) and the power block (turbine and generator). Nuclear reactor capital cost is reduced by fewer requirements on the nuclear system (not connected to the grid) and nuclear-quality construction for only the reactor. Operating costs (security, maintenance, etc.) are minimized by separation of the nuclear reactor plant from balance of plant. Low-cost heat storage provides a competitive economic advantage to heat-generating technologies (nuclear, concentrated solar power) over electricity-generating technologies (wind, solar, photovoltaic) with more-expensive battery or other electricity storage systems in providing dispatchable electricity to the grid.

Leadership Sentiment and Price Fluctuations

The relationship between prices and leadership mood was examined using the example of crude oil prices and the sentiment of the CEOs of 5 leading oil production companies between 2014 and 2019. The crude oil market was chosen due to recent price fluctuations and upcoming challenges, and for its significant for the global economy. This study uses an empirical approach based on a mood analysis of the CEO's natural language. 160 speech transcripts were analyzed using a leading aspect-based sentiment analysis machine learning algorithm to obtain sentiment data. The relation between sentiment and oil price was tested using linear regression. The results of this study show in detail that the sentiment correlates positively in times of low prices and negatively in times of high prices. The average threshold price calculated using this method was 63 USD per barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in the observed period. This corresponds to analysts who estimated the ideal oil price for 2018 at USD 60 to 70. Finally, the restrictions and prospects are discussed. Findings of this study could aid investors decision making and advance the use of sentiment analysis in economic sciences.

Modeling and Investigation of Demand Response Uncertainty on Reliability Assessment

Demand Response (DR) provides an opportunity for customers to reduce their loads during times of high prices and therefore to shave the peak loads. The power outputs of large-scale generator units can be predicted and controlled easily; therefore, the pricing and reliability of conventional power utilities can be assessed straightforwardly. However, the customer loads are very variable and difficult to predict and control; therefore, the integration of DR might cause uncertainty issues on pricing and reliability and is essential to be further investigated. A novel uncertainty model for load reduction is proposed in this paper. The probability intensities of load reduction are first estimated from the measured load reduction variations. A multi-state probability model is then proposed for load reduction and the Markov process is used to calculate the state probabilities. A stochastic analysis scheme using Monte Carlo simulation for pricing and reliability taking the DR uncertainty into account is then investigated. Several cases are designed to compare the effects of DR uncertainty. Simulation results show that the proposed uncertainty model can be integrated into conventional economic dispatch to precisely evaluate the DR uncertainty on system operation and reliability.

Market Basis for Salt-Cooled Reactors: Dispatchable Heat, Hydrogen, and Electricity with Assured Peak Power Capacity

Energy markets are changing because of (1) the addition of nondispatchable wind and solar electric generating capacity and (2) the goal of a low-carbon energy system. The large-scale addition of wind and solar photovoltaics results in low wholesale electricity prices at times of high wind and solar output and high prices at times of low wind and solar input. The goal of a low-carbon energy system requires a replacement energy production system with assured peak energy production capacity. To minimize costs, capital-intensive nuclear reactors should operate at base load. To maximize revenue (minimize sales at times of low prices and maximize sales at times of high prices), the power cycle should provide variable heat and electricity. This requires the power cycle to (1) include heat storage that enables peak heat and electricity output that may be several times base-load reactor output and (2) provide assured peak power production. Assured peak power production requires the capability to efficiently burn low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen and biofuels. Alternatively, nuclear systems with base-load reactors can be built to produce peak electricity and storable hydrogen for industry, biofuels, and other markets. All power reactors with appropriate system designs can meet these requirements. The lowest-cost technologies for heat storage, assured peak power production, and hydrogen production require high-temperature heat. This economically favors salt-cooled reactors with the average temperature of delivered heat of about 650°C versus heat delivered at lower average temperatures from other reactors such as light water reactors: 280°C, sodium-cooled reactors: 500°C, and high-temperature helium-cooled reactors: 550°C. Salt-cooled reactors include (1) Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors (FHRs) with solid fuel and clean salt, (2) Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) with fuel dissolved in the salt, and (3) fusion reactors with salt blankets. Future energy markets, nuclear systems (heat storage, assured peak energy production capacity, and hydrogen production) designed for such markets and the power cycle technologies that economically favor salt reactors are described.

Environmental and social consequences of the increase in the demand for ‘superfoods’ world‐wide

Abstract The search for healthy diets has led to a surge in the demand for functional foods or ‘superfoods’, which have now become popular among the middle‐ and high‐income fractions of the society in developed regions of the world. ‘Superfoods’ are predominantly consumed far from their centres of origin and out of their cultural context with different environmental and social effects. Here, we present a series of case studies to provide an overview of the different environmental impacts driven by superfood expansion. We show that if these crops are to follow the path of other global commodities, then strong environmental impacts and large carbon footprints are expected in terms of land clearing, use of agrochemicals and transportation during times of high prices (boom) and social problems as farmers have to abandon their livelihoods when prices sink below the cost of production (bust). We also showcase how a combination of management practices, consumer choices and policy changes could help in alleviating the ecological footprint of these crops. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Protests of Abundance: Distributive Conflict Over Agricultural Rents During the Commodities Boom in Argentina, 2003–2013

Whereas the scholarship on rural contention mostly focuses on austerity and busts, we study protests by agricultural export producers in times of high agricultural prices. Aware of price volatility, farmers seek to take advantage of cycles’ upswings to maximize their income and resist sharing the rents generated by higher prices. When farmers lack the formal political influence to avert redistribution, they are more likely to protest as their tax burden increases although they benefit from higher prices. Their strongest protest tool is lockouts, which halt commercialization activities and have significant economic consequences, but require coordination by farmer associations. Membership homogeneity and lower exposure to state retaliation by these organizations heightens contention. We test this argument using a local-level data set on rural lockouts across Argentine departments between 2003 and 2013, a time of high prices for Argentina’s key export commodity: soybeans. We complement our empirical strategy with in-depth, semi-structured elite interviews.

Long-term electricity production planning of a flexible biogas plant considering wear and tear

The German Renewable Energy Resources Act 2012 provides incentives for operating biogas plants in a flexible way, i.e., producing electricity in times of high prices and storing biogas during times of low prices. Frequent starts and shutdowns of the combined heat and power unit (CHP), however, lead to excessive and irregular wear and tear. Conventional maintenance schedules just take the CHP’s operating hours into account, thus implying constant wear and tear. Therefore, their use is not appropriate for a flexibly operated plant. Applying such an inappropriate maintenance strategy might lead to a lower availability of the plant and lost revenues. To overcome this gap, we introduce the Long-term Electricity production Planning Problem (LEPPP) that determines both the long-term strategy for electricity production and the optimal dates for scheduled maintenance activities simultaneously. Furthermore, we present the numerical results of a case study using data of an existing biogas plant.

Operation Scheduling of Household Load, EV and BESS Using Real Time Pricing, Incentive Based DR and Peak Power Limiting Strategy

Abstract Demand response (DR) programs have become powerful tools of the smart grids, which provide opportunities for the end-use consumers to participate actively in the energy management programs. This paper investigates impact of different DR strategies in a home-energy management system having consumer with regular load, electric vehicle (EV) and battery-energy storage system (BESS) in the home. The EV is considered as a special type of load, which can also work as an electricity generation source by discharging the power in vehicle-to-home mode during high price time. BESS and a small renewable energy source in form of rooftop photovoltaic panels give a significant contribution in the energy management of the system. As the main contribution to the literature, a mixed integer linear programming based model of home energy management system is formulated to minimize the daily cost of electricity consumption under the effect of different DR programs; such as real time price based DR program, incentive based DR program and peak power limiting DR program. Finally, total electricity prices are analysed in the case studies by including different preferences of the household consumer under mentioned DR programs. A total of 26.93 % electricity cost reduction is noticed with respect to base case, without peak limiting DR and 19.93 % electricity cost reduction is noticed with respect to base case, with peak limiting DR.

Real-time demand response of thermostatic load with active control

The dynamic pricing strategies provide several advantages for both users and operators. The users have opportunity to reduce electricity consumption by responding price changing. It enables the user to save money while the operator is able to manage demand side. However, demand response potential cannot be fully utilized due to lack of automation system and difficulty for users to operate their appliances optimally in response to price changing. In this study, active control mechanism is applied to second-order model of thermostatically controlled heat ventilation air conditioner and electric water heater which consumed 60% of energy in the buildings and highly available for demand response applications. Active control is performed via smart meter (SM) and active control units (ACU) equipped to each appliance. While electricity prices are sent by the smart grid to ACU via SM, the users introduce comfort temperature zone and demand response participation rate to ACU. Set points of the devices are updated by ACU using network information and the user preferences. Power consumption quantity and cost of thermostatic loads with default settings are compared to quantity and cost with adjusted setting by active control. Simulation results show that the active control of appliances provides significant decrease in power consumption during high price time. Also, the users economically benefit from responding to time-varying prices.

Concentrating solar power for less than USD 0.07 per kWh: finally the breakthrough?

The cheap power purchase agreements (PPAs) for two recent concentrating solar power (CSP) projects in Australia (Aurora) and Dubai (DEWA IV) raise questions of how such low costs can be achieved, and whether this could mark the commercial breakthrough of this technology. Here, we investigate these projects with the information available, and seek reasons for the low PPAs. Both projects have low technology costs – which are prerequisites but insufficient as explanations for the low bids. For Aurora, a key explanation is its business model that allows it to sell power outside the PPA, during high-price times when the sun sets and the growing PV fleet goes offline, revealing the market value of CSP. For DEWA IV, a key factor is its extraordinarily long PPA duration, but we expect that it also has very low financing costs. We conclude that both projects can probably be replicated, either in places with an increasing PV fleet and strong “duck curve” problems (replicating Aurora) or in places with low policy risks and access to cheap capital (replicating DEWA IV); such places could include the US, Southern Europe, or the Gulf region.

New EMS to Incorporate Smart Parking Lots Into Demand Response

Demand response (DR) seeks to involve end-use customers in modifying their electricity usage and to offer incentive payments to encourage lower electricity use at times of high prices. This paper provides an approach that realizes DR by developing an energy management system for incorporating aggregated plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in parking lots. This approach includes real-time interaction between the aggregator and PEV owners, whereby the aggregator proposes a number of offers and the owner responds based on his/her preference. The optimization problem is defined as mixed integer nonlinear programming. An extensive performance evaluation using MATLAB/GAMS simulation of the 38-bus test system verifies the success and effectiveness of the proposed method.

The lean times in the Peruvian economy

ABSTRACTThe growth rate of “nonprimary gross domestic product (GDP)” (Perú’s urban economy) dropped to 3.6 percent in 2014 and to 2.4 percent in 2015, far below the annual average of 7.3 percent recorded over the previous decade; moreover, an equally low growth rate of 2.8 percent per year is projected in 2016. In the macroeconomic history of Peru, the times of plenty —that is, the more or less prolonged booms—are also times of high prices of the commodities that the country exports; meanwhile, the lean times—that is, the more or less intense recessions in which economic activity slows down—are times of low commodity prices. This article describes the negative external shock undergone by the Peruvian economy and its recessionary and inflationary effects over 2014–15, analyzes the fiscal and monetary policies applied in response to the external shock, and outlines the macroeconomic challenges faced by the new government of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.

A field study using an adaptive in-house pricing model for commercial and industrial customers in Korea

Demand response programs provide customers with economic incentives for load reductions at times of high market prices and system reliability constraints. One type of demand response programs, price-based program, induces customers to respond to changes in product rates. However, some large-scale customers find it difficult to change their electricity consumption patterns, even with rate changes, because their electricity demands are commercial and industrial. This study proposes an adaptive in-house pricing model for large-scale customers, particularly those with multiple business facilities, for self-regulating price-based program. The adaptive in-house pricing model charges higher rates to customers with lower load factors by employing a peak-to-off-peak usage ratio in order to reduce usage at times of high prices at each facility. This study analyzes the daily electricity consumption patterns of large-scale customers through a field trial of the proposed pricing model at a telecom company with 447 offices and worksites for one month. The results show that the pricing model corresponds to average reductions of 3.54–28.69% during peak-demand times for four different types of workplaces. However, reductions in electricity consumption during off-peak periods did not show a significant difference. The results of this study prove that this proposed pricing model can be successfully applied to large-scale operations.

A real-time demand response algorithm for heterogeneous devices in buildings and homes

The growing demand for electricity, coupled with increased efficiency requirements, creates new opportunities for the development of demand-side management systems. Here we describe an approach for load allocation among different classes of device. We adopt the concept of strategic choice to determine the optimal strategy for a given situation. Electricity resources are allocated based on demand, priority, fairness, the available electrical resources, and the budget, so that even when the unit price is high (i.e., the available resources are restricted), higher-priority devices continue to operate without interruption. When the price falls, resources are distributed to satisfy the requirements of a larger number of devices. We include ESSs (energy storage systems) in the algorithm to reserve energy during low-price times for use during high-price times. The algorithm described here can be used to allocate resources among heterogeneous devices, and has potential not only to reduce peak demand but also to increase the overall efficiency of the system.

Russian Colonial Society in Tashkent, 1865–1923 by Jeff Sahadeo (review)

reviews 757 thisconflict and ofthedeeplyproblematic roleplayedbytheUnitedNations Protection Force (UNPROFOR). Whilstdetailsofthepoliticaland military developments oftheconflict are provided,Donia once again interprets the essenceof thisperiodof Sarajevo's history as a battlebetweenthosewho fought to protect thecity'scommonlifeand those,liketheformer Bosnian Serbleaderand ICTY indictee Radovan Karadzic,whowantedtodestroy it. Whilst Sarajevo'stradition ofdiversity survived theshockoftheSecondWorld War, it seemsuncertain thatitwillsurvive thewar of 1992-95.'The city's commonlifehangsin thebalance' notesDonia (p. 352),and scholarsand analysts ofpost-war Bosniaare indeeduncertain thatthestatewillsurvive in itspresent form, or ifitspolitical boundaries willneedtobe re-drawn. Donia's knowledge of the history, politicsand cultureof Bosnia and of Sarajevothroughout theagesis evident throughout thisbook,he is equallyat ease describing thepositionofnon-Muslim SarajevansunderOttomanrule as he isdescribing theatmosphere inthecity whilst ithostedthe1984Winter Olympiad. Perhapsthere isa tendency inthebooktowards eulogization whilst describing thepassing ofmulticulturalism inSarajevo.Donia occasionally slips intothetragic mode,callingthesiegeofSarajevo(1992-96)an 'epic struggle to preserve a cherished way oflife'(p. 287),and thenagain latercanepic struggle ofwills'(p. 317).One suspects he is occasionally caughtup inthepity ofthething; butthenso manypeoplehavelookedatBosnia'shistory through the prismof war and seen nothingbut interminable hostility. Sarajevo: A Biography is a persuasive riposteto thisapproach,it provesempirically that therehas been and can be a commonlifein thecity. SchoolofHistory andArchives University College Dublin JohnPaul Newman Sahadeo, Jeff.Russian ColonialSociety in Tashkent, 1865ig2j . Indiana University Press, Bloomington andIndianapolis, 2007.xi+ 316pp.Maps. Illustrations. Notes.Bibliography. Index.$45.00. JeffSahadeo has made an immensely valuablecontribution tobothcolonial and urbanhistory withhisnewstudy ofRussiansettlers in Tashkentwhich, unusually, bridges the1917dividetocarry thestory from theRussianconquest in 1865through theRevolution and theearliest yearsofSovietRule to 1923. Sahadeo has done extensive research in archives and libraries in Uzbekistan, but perhapsthe moststriking aspect of his book is the use he makes of the historiography of the Britishand FrenchEmpires,and in particular the richliterature of postcolonialstudies.To some extentthen thisis a comparative study, situating RussianTashkentfirmly in thewidercontext of nineteenth-century Europeanimperialism. Sahadeo describesa city with multiplepersonalities, some of which pre-dated itscapture byGeneralCherniaevin 1865(pp. 12-21).Tashkent was atonetimea majorstaging-post on theEastWesttrading routeloosely known 758 SEER, 88, 4, OCTOBER 2OIO as theSilkRoad, buthad maintained itsprosperity throughout thesupposedlystagnant seventeenth and eighteenth centuries as thestarting and terminal pointfortheNorth-South caravanswhichcrossedtheKazakh Steppeto Russia. Tashkentmarkedthe frontier betweenthe steppesand the oasis regions totheSouth,and as suchithad a chequeredpolitical history, at times falling undertheauthority oftheKazakh Khans,at others disputed between theEmirofBukharaand theKhan ofKokand,and fora timein thelate eighteenth and earlynineteenth centuries it was an independent city-state undertheruleofYunus Khoja. In 1865,however, Tashkentwas partofthe Kokand Khanate,and it was Kokand's mostfamousmilitary commander, Alimqul,who was slain beforethe citywalls priorto Cherniaev'sfinal, successful, assault.Tashkent's careeras a colonialcapitalhad begun,and this wouldsee thecityprofoundly transformed. As withthecantonments ofBritish India or theNouvelles Villes ofFrench NorthAfrica,the racial, religiousand culturaldividebetweencolonizers and colonizedwas reflected in urbanplanning.The Russiansbuilta new 'European' townnextto the old 'native'city,and dividedfromit by the Anharcanal. Here theregulargridpattern ofthetree-lined boulevards, the neatwhitebungalows, churches and latergrander, brick-built official edifices weresupposedtoprojectan imageofsuperior rationalEuropeanmodernity, in contrast to theteeming, dirty alleyways oftheold city(pp. 32-46). However ,as Sahadeo skilfully shows,reality rarely conformed to thisimage.The earliest buildings ofRussianTashkent werelittle morethanwoodenand mud huts,and it was over tenyearsbeforethe citybegan to acquire any real feeling ofpermanence. The fledgling settler community found itself dependent on the 'Sarts'ofthenativecityforfoodand othercommodities, whilst the canal whichsuppliedtheir wateralso flowed first through 'Asiatic'Tashkent. The imageofthecannyMuslim'speculator' and trader exploiting thesettler population was one thatwouldrecurrepeatedly throughout thecolonialand earlySovietperiods, leadingtoriots(often led byRussianwomen)at timesof highprices(pp.89-90, 170-76). Mosthumiliatingly ofall,Russiansettlers were deficient in knowledge, whether ofthelocal languages, irrigation techniques, methods offarming or treatments forunfamiliar diseases.Local intermediaries , such as SattarKhan Abdulghafarov and MuhiddinKhoja Ishan,both Qazis(Muslim judges)playedan important roleinthecolonialadministration (pp. 83-84). Whilstretaining whatoften seemeda fragile military superiority overthe 'natives'of Turkestan, in otherrespects the Russiansfeltdisturbinglyvulnerable .Various tacticswere used to combat these feelingsof impermanenceand insecurity: the welcomingof the Governor-General ofTurkestan to his capitaland thecommemoration ofthefallofTashkent rapidly evolvedintoelaboraterituals (pp.47-56).The smallcircleofRussian intellectuals in Tashkent, mostofthemfrom a military background, felt their isolationveryacutely,and respondedby establishing learnedsocietiesand publishing learnedarticleson the history, ethnography and agriculture of Turkestanin the pages of Turkestanskiia Vedomosti, the official newspaper. Konstantin Petrovich vonKaufman, thefirst Governor-General ofTurkestan, encouraged'scientific' pursuitsamongstofficers servingin Turkestanand personally recruited manyexperts, suchas theorientalists Alexander Kun and reviews 759 NikolaiOstroumov, to servein the...

Turning CO2 Capture On and Off in Response to Electric Grid Demand: A Baseline Analysis of Emissions and Economics

Coal consumption accounted for 36% of America’s CO2 emissions in 2005, yet because coal is a relatively inexpensive, widely available, and politically secure fuel, its use is projected to grow in the coming decades (USEIA, 2007, “World Carbon Dioxide Emissions From the Use of Fossil Fuels,” International Energy Annual 2005, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/carbon.html). In order for coal to contribute to the U.S. energy mix without detriment to an environmentally acceptable future, implementation of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology is critical. Techno-economic studies establish the large expense of CCS due to substantial energy requirements and capital costs. However, such analyses typically ignore operating dynamics in response to diurnal and seasonal variations in electricity demand and pricing, and they assume that CO2 capture systems operate continuously at high CO2 removal and permanently consume a large portion of gross plant generation capacity. In contrast, this study uses an electric grid-level dynamic framework to consider the possibility of turning CO2 capture systems off during peak electricity demands to regain generation capacity lost to CO2 capture energy requirements. This practice eliminates the need to build additional generation capacity to make up for CO2 capture energy requirements, and it might allow plant operators to benefit from selling more electricity during high price time periods. Post-combustion CO2 absorption and stripping is a leading capture technology that, unlike many other capture methods, is particularly suited for flexible or on/off operation. This study presents a case study on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electric grid that estimates CO2 capture utilization, system-level costs, and CO2 emissions associated with different strategies of using on/off CO2 capture on all coal-fired plants in the ERCOT grid in order to satisfy peak electricity demand. It compares base cases of no CO2 capture and “always on” capture with scenarios where capture is turned off during: (1) peak demand hours every day of the year, (2) the entire season of peak system demand, and (3) system peak demand hours only on seasonal peak demand days. By eliminating the need for new capacity to replace output lost to CO2 capture energy requirements, flexible CO2 capture could save billions of dollars in capital costs. Since capture systems remain on for most of the year, flexible capture still achieves substantial CO2 emissions reductions.

Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.