Tight Labor Market Research Articles

Japan 2016: Slow Economic Growth but an Affluent Society

Japanese economy grew steadily in 2016. However, household consumption remained weak and inflation was far below the 2% target. The Japanese government substantially adjusted both monetary and fiscal policies to support economic growth. Despite a tight labour market, the meagre increase in base salary could not stimulate consumption. However, Japan remains an affluent society, with a large amount of liquid assets and relatively low debts. Japanese overseas assets have risen significantly and is a major source of national income.

World Economic Prospects

Overview: A world with higher inflation Our world GDP growth forecasts are unchanged this month, at 2.6% for 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. But we expect a sizeable increase in inflation, to 3.3% in 2017 from an estimated 2.8% in 2016, as the effect of higher oil prices feeds through. Global indicators continue to point to a pick‐up in activity towards the end of last year, driven by stronger manufacturing activity. The global manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level in almost three years in December, while the composite index – which includes services – was at a 13‐month high. World trade should be underpinned by stronger growth in the US (2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018), bolstered by the anticipated effects of President Trump's expansive fiscal policies. That said, uncertainties around our central forecast are unusually high given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration. Encouragingly, there are increasing signs that the tighter labour market is leading to a pick‐up in wage inflation in the US, which will support consumers. Given these reflationary trends, we expect two increases in the Federal funds rate this year and US bond yields are likely to continue to rise. The widening of interest rate differentials between the US and the Eurozone will drive the euro down to parity with the US dollar by end‐2017 for the first time since 2002. We have revised our Brexit assumptions this month. We now assume that the two‐year period of exit negotiations is followed by a transitional arrangement lasting 2–3 years. This would provide breathing space to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU. Emerging market growth on the whole will improve in 2017 but performance will differ across countries: Russia and Brazil will exit recession, but countries with weak balance of payments positions, high dollar debt and exposure to possible US protectionist actions will be at risk. In China, policymakers are moving to greater emphasis on reducing financial risks and less focus on the 6.5% GDP growth target for 2017. Continued action is also likely to dampen further depreciation of the CNY.

Person - job fi t and the work commitment of IT Personnel

Introduction: There have been given a much higher importance to employee commitment and retention since India is experiencing the highest attrition rate globally Economic Times, 2015. Hence, considering the factors of Person-job fi t to interpret the impact towards work commitment is very well essential, especially in the current scenario. Work Commitment is a vital element in any organization which has outstanding impact on productivity and functioning and hence it is very much vital to have a committed workforce which is necessary in this competitive environment and tight labour market. In the same way, there is considerable amount of evidence that if P-J fi t is high then it will have a direct impact on organization commitment also. Person-job fi t is the compatibility between person’s competency and abilities and the requirements of the job Zheng et al.2. If there exists a mismatch between person-job fi t then the consequences might result in poor work commitment, low job satisfaction and extremely lower involvement in the job. Objective: This study analyzed the key factors that contribute to Person- job compatibility among IT workers and also analyzed the relationship and impact of Person- job compatibility towards work commitment. Methods: Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was used to fi lter the key factors initially, followed by a linear regression technique to determine the impact of Person- job compatibility factors in work commitment on a sample of 300 employees. EFA used Principal Component analysis for extraction and Promax for rotation. Finally regression analysis was carried out to predict the work commitment through statistically significant person-job compatibility variables. Results: The impact of person-job compatibility on work commitment was studied through regression analysis and it imply that for every unit increase in HR Policy, a 0.52 (unstandardised coeffi cients) increase in work commitment is predicted and it has been turned out as a most impacting variable to predict work commitment. The coeffi cients for Relationship (B =.330, sig =.000), HR Policies (B =.519, sig =.000), Pay and Benefi ts (B =.386, sig =.000) and Employee Growth (B =.290, sig =.001) were statistically significant, since its p-value is .000 which is smaller than .05. The coeffi cients for Work Autonomy (B =.154, sig = .081) was not statistically signifi cant, since its p-value is 0.081 which is greater than.05. Conclusion: The major factors responsible for creating work commitment among IT employees are Relationship, HR Policies and strategies, Pay and benefi ts, Work autonomy and Employee growth. The most contributing regressors which accounts for creating work commitment are HR policies, Pay and benefi ts, Employee growth and work autonomy.

Germany: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany

This paper discusses the economic performance of Germany. The economy of Germany is projected to slowly rebalance, with domestic demand supported by tight labor market, accommodative monetary conditions, and, in 2016, a fiscal expansion. Declining medium-term growth prospects, however, continue to hold back domestic investment and push up savings, preventing faster rebalancing. Progress has been slow on addressing needs in public infrastructure and stimulating competition in services sector, while mounting aging costs and a successful labor market integration of women and refugees require further policy action. Full use of the room available under fiscal rules to finance additional public investment and growth-friendly structural reforms would be appropriate.

The trend toward pre-graduation professional work experience for Australian young planners: essential experience or essentially exploitation

ABSTRACTThis paper explores the changing employment expectations that frame the early professional work experiences of young planners in Australia. In particular, it considers the rising popularity of pre-graduation professional work experience as a precursor to formal entry into the workforce as a practising planner. This shift is being driven in part by employer expectations that graduates will already have ‘real world’ and relevant work experience. However, an equally significant driver appears to be a growing desire for early career and graduate planners to find ways to distinguish themselves from their peers in an increasingly tight labour market. Using data from an ongoing research project into the formative work experiences of young people this paper describes the three main types of pre-graduation professional work experience undertaken by young planners. It highlights the potential challenges and benefits of pre-graduation work experience from a legal, social and ethical perspective as well as from the perspective of young planners themselves. The paper concludes by reflecting on the role of the planning profession – employers, peak bodies and planning educators – in managing the tensions between producing ‘work ready’ graduates and safeguarding the employment conditions of early career planning professionals.

The Risk of Future Labor Shortages in Different Occupations and Industries in the United States

In the next 10 years, there is likely to be a tight labor market, largely due to the ongoing retirement of baby boomers. This paper focuses on the details of occupations, industries, and regions in which there will be the highest risk of labor shortages in the United States. Twelve determinants of labor shortages were investigated to compile indices of labor shortage risk. These indices are presented and discussed for those occupations and industries that face the highest risks of labor shortages.

Fly‐In/Fly‐Out, Flexibility and the Future: Does Becoming a Regional FIFO Source Community Present Opportunity or Burden?

AbstractThe resources boom in Australia has resulted in considerable competition for labour, particularly in remote mining areas. Shortage of skilled labour has led mining companies to source workers from far afield, while the high incomes created by a tight labour market draw labour from across the country through long‐distance commuting arrangements such as fly‐in/fly‐out (FIFO). While much recent literature has focused on the impacts on receiving communities of these long‐distance commuters, less attention has been given to the experience of source communities. This paper compares the situation between two regional towns in which long‐distance commuters reside. The first, Busselton in Western Australia, is among several chosen by Rio Tinto to be labour source communities. The second, Stawell in Victoria, is looking to long‐distance commuting as a response to the impending closure of their existing gold mine. Hence the case studies offer not only insights into source communities' experience of long‐distance commuting, but also a comparison between the bottom‐up approach of Stawell in trying to establish FIFO with the experience of Busselton as an example of top‐down labour sourcing. This paper seeks to highlight some of the development challenges encountered by communities and offer solutions as to how these might be addressed for the future.

Zorgen overheidsbestedingen voor extra banen?

Do Government expenditures create additional jobs? Do Government expenditures create additional jobs? Government expenditures often aim at creating jobs. This article presents a simple model to predict the impact of additional government expenditures on employment. The model takes account of the availability of labour. In the long run, the labour market will tend towards equilibrium. If additional jobs are created, wages will rise, causing other jobs to disappear over time. Also, labour supply will go up.Two case studies show that the size of the effect on employment depends on the economic sectors in which employment grows, and on the business cycle. Involvement of the Netherlands in the production of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) airplane will create jobs in a tight labour market for technicians, leading to a strong displacement of other jobs. On the other hand, subsidies for investments in energy saving in buildings will create many jobs for unemployed persons.Government expenditures do not only reduce unemployment. They also increase productivity as workers move towards jobs with a higher productivity. And government expenditures involve costs. This implies that a social cost-benefit analysis is needed to get a full picture of the effects.

Labor market conditions and social insurance in China

This paper provides micro-level evidence on the relationship between labor market conditions and social insurance participation among Chinese industrial firms. I find that the increased scarcity of labor over this period was a quantitatively important driver of participation. Moreover, a comparison of the responses in different segments of the labor market shows that the response was relatively stronger in sectors with larger shares of uninsured workers, namely in private firms, those with a larger share of low-educated workers, and those without labor unions. The results suggest that a tighter labor market in the years ahead can aid policy makers to implement social insurance programs and combat insurance inequality.

High‐Technology Entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley

The economic expansion of the late 1990s created many opportunities for business creation in Silicon Valley, but the opportunity cost of starting a business was also high during this period because of the exceptionally tight labor market. A new measure of entrepreneurship derived from matching files from the Current Population Survey (CPS) is used to provide the first test of the hypothesis that business creation rates were high in Silicon Valley during the “Roaring 90s.” Unlike previous measures of firm births based on large, nationally representative datasets, the new measure captures business creation at the individual‐owner level, includes both employer and nonemployer business starts, and focuses on only hi‐tech industries. Estimates indicate that hi‐tech entrepreneurship rates were lower in Silicon Valley than the rest of the United States during the period from January 1996 to February 2000. Examining the post‐boom period, we find that entrepreneurship rates in Silicon Valley increased from the late 1990s to the early 2000s. Although Silicon Valley may be an entrepreneurial location overall, we provide the first evidence that the extremely tight labor market of the late 1990s, especially in hi‐tech industries, may have suppressed business creation during this period.

The Euro Crisis: Mission Accomplished?

The Euro Crisis: Mission Accomplished?

Whither ‘training and development’ in Vietnam?: learning from United States and Japanese MNCs' practice

This paper focuses on training and development (T&D) policies and practices to explore how multinational companies (MNCs) localise their human resources within their subsidiaries in a developing country. It uses qualitative research methods to examine three US and three Japanese MNCs operating in the automotive and fast‐moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry in Vietnam. The paper identifies both home‐ and host‐country effects as significant factors in the transfer of MNCs' T&D policies and practices. Clear home‐country effects are evident in rigorous attempts of both US and Japanese MNCs to transfer and implement formalised and centrally controlled training programs. Host‐country effects manifest themselves in the instability of the institutional environment, weak associations among employers’ groups, and fragmented bargaining practices that encourage employer and employee opportunism, particularly ‘poaching’ and ‘job‐hopping’. These lead to MNCs' hesitation to invest in T&D, and the lack of job rotation and a tendency to train ‘specialists’ rather than ‘generalists’ in the Japanese firms. The paper also discusses the interaction of foreign owned and indigenous firms in a very tight labour market at the highly skilled end that results in a ‘brain drain’ phenomenon on human resource development (HRD).

Harnessing the value of data in asset management for production assurance and to lower operating costs

With rising costs, a tight labour market, and prolonged global economic uncertainty, it is unsurprising that investment decisions are being re-evaluated across Australia's resources and energy industry. Amid this tough market environment, effective asset management has never been more important. Asset management was first adopted by Australia's oil and gas industry in the early 90s and is now well entrenched. There is widespread acknowledgement that it breaks down project complexity and plays a critical role in maximising project net present value. If done well, asset management takes a long-term view of asset life-cycles–from concept and creation, to services that deliver production assurance and lower costs. While these principles are well understood across the market, asset data capture and analysis–a critical element to successful asset management–requires ongoing review. Accurate and comprehensive asset data is the basis on which all good asset-management decisions are made. Developments in geographic information systems, SAP, and cloud-based technology are redefining the way asset data is collected, stored, analysed, and fed back into asset-management decisions. Asset managers of oil and gas assets should, therefore, be asking themselves three important questions: Are we using the latest technology to collect, store, and analyse asset data? Which project stakeholders need to interact with the data? Do our existing or planned asset-management models have the capacity to integrate and evolve with new technology as it develops?

Employment branding at Google: a challenge to attract and/or build talent

Many organisations are realising that it is better to develop the leaders of tomorrow from within the organisation and that development is a critical strategic objective. Development helps to retain talent and ensure leaders are prepared to succeed strategically, operationally and culturally. This paper looks at the topic of recruitment and talent selection through the eyes of Google. Google has extraordinary appeal, which helps attracting not only the top talents in computer science and information technology but also throughout various industries from all levels of employment. This paper attempts to fi ne-tune their recruitment approach to optimise the scanning and selection of these applicants as this will be fundamental in ensuring good organisational and job fi t, timely processing and minimising discrimination and biases. Effective talent management is crucial in today’s tight labour market and skill and balancing a buy and build talent policy will position Google well for its future.

Revisiting the seafarer shortage problem: the case of Singapore

Earlier in the Baltic International Maritime Council (BIMCO)/International Shipping Federation (ISF) 2005 report, the issue of seafaring shortage had already been identified as a global issue. The most recent BIMCO/ISF 2010 report still highlights that crewing would be likely a future challenge as continuing tight labour market would lead to recurrent shortages for some officers. In this paper, we aim to explore how the shipping industry and its associated seafaring career can be marketed more effectively to enhance its image and attract and increase the supply of suitably qualified seafarers. Several interviews were conducted with regulatory bodies and ship management companies, followed by a survey with students of nautical studies at Singapore Maritime Academy. It is found that those tangible and intangible benefits attached to an Employer of Choice (EOC) such as salary, bonus, good welfare aboard ships and corporate social responsibility are critical to retain seafarers, while efforts to attract students to the seafaring career right from the secondary level should focus on the employment brand that provides a challenging and unique career, stable income and guaranteed employment. This study suggests that employers with a successful EOC strategy will likely develop a strong employment brand that will increase the levels of recruitment and retention. It is also recommended that the tripartism between maritime governing bodies, training institutions and shipping and ship management companies will be essential to the effective attraction and retention of quality seafarer for the maritime industry.

A Study on Causes of Low Fertility in Korea - Focusing on Family Value -

Today low fertility countries are characterised by low female labour force participation, low gender equity, robust marriage institution, and strong family values. It is presumed that the conflicts between an advanced socioeconomic system and robust family patterns is an important cause of low fertility. Korea is a typical case where the conventional family pattern results in disharmony with socioeconomic development and depresses fertility. The direct cost of children has been rising rapidly due to the Confucian value of education and strong family value. The tight labour market conditions and the increasing uncertainty concerning the future are depressing not only nuptiality, but martial fertility. The robustness of traditional gender role division controls the improvement in compatibility between work and the family and keeps the high opportunity cost of childbearing. Even though the Korean government declared an ambitious pronatal policy, the budget is so limited that its effect is questionable. Moreover, lowest low fertility is attributed to cultural patterns and is beyond family policy.

Human Capital Development For Programmers Using Open Source Software

A firm can upgrade relevant skills of its programmers by ensuring their participation in carefully chosen open source projects. Highly skilled programmers are more valuable for the firm but participating in open source projects reduces the time they spend doing the firm's projects. This tradeoff determines the optimal extent of programmer participation in open source for the firm. The extent of open source participation may also be influenced by the minimum compensation that must be paid to hire a programmer in the labor market. This is because providing better skills is a way of compensating the programmers by improving their future market value. Hence the firm may want to increase open source participation to keep direct wage payments in check. We develop an analytical model based on optimal control theory to characterize the employment contract that features the best mix of open source participation and wage payments. We also find that the firm benefits more from the presence of open source in a tight labor market (i.e., when programmers have good options besides the employment offered by the firm). On the other hand, programmers are compensated better in the presence of open source opportunities when they have few outside options. This benefit is more for less skilled programmers.

Should the government stimulate enrolment in science and engineering studies?

In many countries there is a deep concern about shortages of Science and Engineering workers (S&E). This article focuses on the effectiveness of policies aimed at stimulating the supply of S&E workers in the Netherlands. Despite the ‘common wisdom’ of severe and increasing shortages, we do not find evidence for a tight labour market of S&E workers. Instead, the data suggest that S&E workers have become less scarce since 1996. Stimulating enrolment in S&E studies may not be an effective policy for increasing R&D activity in the Netherlands because the majority of Dutch S&E freshmen do not end up working in R&D. They drop out during their S&E study or choose other jobs. In addition, the internationalization of the market for S&E workers tends to counter the effects of supply-side policies because the growing supply of foreign S&E graduates puts downward pressure on wages. As a result, demand-side policies may be more effective because they are directly targeted at fostering R&D.

Analysing the ‘Black Box’ of HRM: Uncovering HR Goals, Mediators, and Outcomes in a Standardized Service Environment

abstractThis multi‐level study analyses the ‘black box’ of HRM in an Australian cinema chain, a standardized service environment. Management's espoused goals for the casual workers who run the cinema service include attempts to build customer‐oriented behaviour, both directly and via empowerment, and also efforts to ensure compliance with company policies and to enhance employee commitment. Our analysis of an employee survey and supervisory performance ratings shows that it is behavioural compliance that is positively associated with rated performance rather than customer‐oriented behaviour. While customer service is an important value, it is willing engagement with a highly scripted, efficiency‐oriented work process that makes it happen, not a more empowering form of work design. On the other hand, the management process also fosters a level of employee commitment, which has some value in a tight labour market. The study demonstrates the way in which actual models of HRM can contain a complex and ‘contradictory’ set of messages, consistent with critical accounts of the labour process and suggesting that notions of ‘internal fit’ need to recognize such tensions. It underlines the importance of identifying the multiple goals in management's espoused theories of HRM and then assessing their links via managerial behaviour and employee responses to performance outcomes.

Foreign firms and host-country productivity: does the mode of entry matter?

Foreign direct investment is considered an important source of knowledge spillovers. We argue that the efiects of foreign presence on host country productivity may difier depending on the mode of foreign entry. Using a long panel from the Norwegian Manufacturing Census, we flnd that greenfleld entry both in the same industry and in the same labour market region has a negative impact on the productivity of domestic plants, while entry via acquisition afiects the productivity of domestic plants in the same industry positively. The positive efiect from acquisitions is consistent with knowledge spillovers as these plants have pre-established linkages within the industry. The negative efiects from greenfleld entry can be attributed to increased competition both in the product market and for qualifled employees in a tight labour market. This may help to explain the ambiguity of results in the empirical literature that relates overall foreign presence to host country productivity.