Threshold Vector Error Correction Model Research Articles

Unravelling the nexus between energy prices and exchange rate in Malaysia: Fresh insights from a non-linear perspective using threshold cointegration analysis

This paper proposes a nonlinear threshold cointegration framework to study how energy prices affect Malaysia's nominal exchange rate, considering the money supply, income, and interest rate. The study employs a threshold cointegration approach utilizing threshold autoregressive and momentum threshold autoregressive models. The momentum threshold vector error correction model determines the short-run adjustment of exchange rate deviation from the long-run equilibrium level. The findings reveal that the nonlinear adjustment process to capture the short-run deviation in the long-run equilibrium path is primarily influenced by energy prices, money supply, and interest rates. These results highlight the importance of considering the impact of energy prices on exchange rate policies when formulating and implementing economic policies in Malaysia. The findings can also be valuable for decision-makers to comprehend the future dynamics of exchange rates and make well-informed decisions.

Modeling and Analysis Data Production of Oil, and Oil and Gas in Indonesia by Using Threshold Vector Error Correction Model

Data in the fields of finance, business, economics, agriculture, the environment and weather are commonly in the form of time series data. To analyze time series data that involves more than one variable (multivariate), vector autoregressive (VAR) models, vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models are generally used. If the variables discussed have cointegration, then the VAR model is modified into a vector error correction model (VECM). The relationship between short-term dynamics and deviation in the VECM model is assumed to be linear. If there is a nonlinear relationship between short-term dynamics and deviation, then a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) can be used. The variables used in this research consist of oil production and Indonesian oil and gas production from January 2019 to March 2021. The research results show that the best model for data on oil production and oil and gas production is the TVECM 2 Regime model. Based on the TVECM 2 Regime model, further analysis, namely Granger causality and Impulse Response Function are discussed.

Research of the non-linear dynamic relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and crude oil prices

This paper examines the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU, Global economic policy uncertainty refers to the fact that market actors cannot accurately predict whether the government will change the current economic policy, if so, when the government will make changes, and what the content of the current policy changes will be. These are difficult for economic actors to accurately predict.) and crude oil prices from a global perspective within a non-linear analytical framework. Firstly, the non-linear dynamic trends between GEPU and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices are examined using the VAR-filtered BDS test, followed by the test of the non-linear Granger causality, which shows significant non-linear causal relationship between GEPU and WTI oil prices. Further, this paper use threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR) and threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) to analysis the long-term and short-term non-linear dynamic adjustment processes between GEPU and WTI oil prices, the result shows that there is an optimal threshold between GEPU and WTI. In the low global economic policy uncertainty regime, the relationship between GEPU and WTI is mutually beneficial, while in the high global economic policy uncertainty regime, the relationship between GEPU and WTI is mutually inhibited. Meanwhile, the TVECM results show that in the first regime, GEPU adjusts towards equilibrium at a faster rate, while in the second regime, WTI adjusts towards equilibrium at a faster rate.

Threshold Cointegration and Price Transmission in Commodity Marketsof India

The purpose of this research work is to examine the relationships and price dynamics between agricultural commodities in India, i.e.maize, wheat, barley and soybean. Our approach is to study the long-term relationship using the method of modelling the price transmission for both linear and threshold autoregressive (AR) models and vector error correction (VEC) models. Results revealed that all the price series are well integrated, and threshold error correction models prove that all price series move to restore the long-run relationship, whereas commodity stock prices respond slightly faster than market prices in the short-run. Conclusions from this study show that understanding the price transmission flow and its impact on pricing might help in making better trading strategies. It also regulates the public policy implications of the active participation of farmers in national-level commodity exchanges.

HOW DOES U.S. REDUCE THE FOOD WASTE BY PREDICTING FOOD AWAY FROM HOME AND FOOD AT HOME?

This study examines the relationship among consumer confidence, food away from home (FAFH) and food at home (FAH) in the U.S. to figure out the high potential food sector for reducing food waste. Specifically, this paper uses the monthly data from January 2010 to December 2020 and the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) for the analysis. Our test results of Johansen cointegration and threshold cointegration show that pairs of consumer confidence–FAFH and consumer confidence–FAH have a nonlinear long-run relationship. According to TVECM results, consumer confidence has a positive long-run Granger causation on FAFH approximately 93% (regimes 2 and 3), and on FAH over 5.4% (regime 3). About 7% of periods (regime 1) not included for a long-run Granger causation of consumer confidence on FAFH, and 5.4% period on FAH pertain to the COVID-19 period. Therefore, we conclude that a positive long-run Granger causation of consumer confidence on food consumption in the U.S. exists only in the FAFH. Based on our results, the policy implication is that the U.S. should focus on the FAFH to reduce food waste by predicting food demand to manage food stock.

Threshold vector error correction model and transaction cost variation

ABSTRACT Our study assesses the performance of a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) for the analysis of spatial price transmission. We specifically determine how inference about price regimes and the process of price adjustment to the established long-run equilibrium is affected when the stochastic transaction cost is exogenously or endogenously determined in fixed and flexible threshold models. The study first generates non-stationary but cointegrated price series and transaction costs based on true price transmission parameters: percentage of violations of spatial equilibrium, speed of price adjustment, threshold and inaction band using Monte Carlo simulations. Then, the generated data are used to estimate TVECMs under various assumptions on transaction cost variation and threshold specification. Finally, estimates of price transmission parameters are compared with the true parameters to evaluate the performance of model specifications. Our results indicate that the flexible TVECM accounting for transaction cost variation outperforms the standard fixed TVECM, which is consistent with findings from many previous studies in the literature. Our study also finds that although the flexible TVECM performs better than the fixed TVECM, it may not fully address the limitation of linear models when a real-world data represents a complex nonlinearity in the spatial price transmission.

China's trilemma: Exchange rate marketization, RMB internationalization, and exchange rate pricing power

We employ a threshold vector error correction model approach to investigate the impact of China's exchange rate marketization reform in August 2015 on the linkage between renminbi (RMB) onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) exchange rates and the impact of post-reform policy interventions by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) on CNY–CNH linkage. We find that, after the reform, price power over the RMB exchange rate changed from the onshore to the offshore market, in which the CNH significantly leads the CNY, and the CNY ceased to lead the CNH. Since the reform, the PBoC has faced a trilemma of exchange rate marketization, RMB internationalization, and maintenance of the onshore market's pricing power over the RMB exchange rate. The PBoC regained its RMB pricing power by reinforcing control over the onshore exchange rate and tightening offshore RMB liquidity, at the expense of setbacks in both exchange rate marketization and RMB internationalization.

TVECM TO ANALYZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NET FOREIGN ASSETS AND CURRENCY CIRCULATION

In the analytical balance sheet of the base money monetary authority, Bank Indonesia explained that net foreign assets (NFA) affected the circulation of base money, including currency. This gives an assumption regarding the indication of a causal relationship between currency circulation and NFA. In addition to the causality test, the primary purpose of this study is to identify long-term equilibrium relationships between NFA and Currency Circulation. The cointegration test obtained r = 1, indicating cointegration (long-term equilibrium). Time series data plots of these two variables tend to have a trend and are not stationary. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied as an analytical method used to correct long-term relationships between variables that are not stationary. However, in the concept of VECM deviation and short-term dynamics, the association is assumed to be linear. At the same time, in applying economics, the relationship between economic variables is not necessarily linear. The significance test for the presence of a threshold using a fixed regressor bootstrap shows a threshold effect or nonlinear VECM, so it is necessary to use an analytical method that can combine nonlinearity and cointegration through the Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM). In this study, modeling of TVECM 2 regimes and three regimes were carried out. TVECM 3 regimes obtain the best model with two threshold values ​​of -310850 and -260156.

Spatial Market Integration, Price Transmission and Transaction Costs in Major Onion Markets of India

The price information is one of the prime objectives of marketing strategies, and the farmers are unable to determine the marketing strategies without knowing the price movements of the agricultural commodities. In this context, the study has examined the spatial price integration among four major onion markets using the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) that takes into account transaction costs in the price adjustment process. Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests for unit root suggest that the time series is I(1). The application of the Johansen cointegration technique supports the presence of long-run price association and equilibrium in all pairs of onion markets. The Granger Causality test unveils that Bengaluru Granger causes all the markets except Kolkata. The Hansen and Seo supreme Lagrange Multiplier ( SupLM) test of linearity suggests that non-linear TVECM with one threshold and two regimes is best fit for the underlying data for three pairs of markets. While the rest of the three pairs, the SupLM test rejects the null of linearity, therefore, linear vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Finally, VECM and TVECM results reveal that Mumbai and Bengaluru are dominant markets in price formation in rest of the markets. Against these findings, it is suggested that the prices should be stabilised in the dominant markets so that the price shocks are not transferred to other markets. The threshold parameter, which is analogous to transaction cost, reveals the high transaction costs between the selected markets pairs, especially Mumbai and Delhi. One of the reasons for the high transaction costs may be the inefficiencies in infrastructure and communication. While a more correct explanation for this difference can be attributed to the differences in marketing fees, taxes, commission charges, license fees, etc., across the spatially separated agricultural markets. JEL Codes: Q1, Q13, D4, C22, D23

When cointegration is interrupted: Price transmission analysis in the Italian dairy‐feed industry

AbstractWe analyze price transmission dynamics in the under‐investigated feed supply chain, applying a special case of the Threshold Vector Error Correction model where the cointegrating relationship is interrupted. Weekly Italian dairy feed and corn prices are used, finding evidence of asymmetric price transmission when the feed industry's margins are squeezed and highly volatile. The proposed Interrupted Threshold Cointegration model represents a valid complement to existing threshold and regime‐switching techniques, allowing for the application of an agile nonstructural error correction model when standard cointegration tests fail to detect any long‐run relationship between price series. [EconLit Citations: Q11, Q13, C24].

Threshold effects of renewable energy consumption by source in U.S. economy

• We established a threshold model for data from REC by source in U.S. • Nonlinear relationship b/w REC by source and GDP. • The effect of REC on GDP depends REC by source used. • Effect is positive if U.S. use REC by source above a threshold. • Effect is negative if U.S. use REC by source below a threshold. With the climate challenges and the depletion of fossil resources, the renewable energy option seems to be a wise choice; this renews the debate on the relationship between renewable energy sources consumption and economic growth. This study relies on a threshold effects regression model to explore and evaluate the non-linear relationship between the series in the United States during the period 1984Q1–2021Q3. Using the threshold detection method proposed by Hansen and Seo (2002), the results of this method show that the renewable energy sources consumption/GDP relationship is non-linear. They also reveal, for all the different sources, an optimal renewable energy sources consumption/GDP threshold of 5.535; 2.715; 1.988 and 8.925% for BIO, GEO, Solar and HPower, respectively. The results indicate the presence of mixed directions of causality between the renewable energy sources consumption and GDP, using the Threshold Vector Error Correction model (TVECM). The findings of this paper suggest that if the United States aim to realize positive economic growth from their investment to renewable energy, they need to surpass a certain threshold of renewable energy sources consumption.

Market integration and price transmission in wheat markets of India: a transaction cost approach

PurposeWheat, which is one of the major staple food grain crops in India, continues to depict occasional fluctuation in the prices though Union government has adopted administered price policy for wheat by intervening in its procurement at assured prices and distribution. Such fluctuations in prices are usually attributed to inefficient functioning of the agricultural markets. Since spatially separated markets also play an important role to determine efficiency of the agricultural markets, the study has used market integration as one of the tools to analyze the price transmission across the spatially separated markets to identify causes of price fluctuations and suggest ways to stabilize wheat prices.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilizes monthly wholesale prices for January, 2006 to May, 2016 for dara wheat. First, the study employs augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) tests to check stationarity in wheat prices. Second, Johansen's cointegration test is applied to assess the integration of wholesale prices between selected pairs of wheat markets to determine long-run relationship among them. Third, Granger casualty test is used to find the direction of causality between the wheat market pairs. Finally, threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) and likelihood ratio (LR) tests are employed to examine long-run adjustment of prices towards the equilibrium in selected wheat markets.FindingsSince wheat wholesale prices for the selected markets are found to be integrated of the order one, that is [I(1)], Johansen's test of cointegration is employed and its findings reveal that the selected wheat market pairs exhibit cointegration and show a long-run price association among themselves. There exists a bi-directional causality among the wheat market pairs. Since LR test is in favor of threshold model (except for Etawah–Delhi pair), one and two threshold models were also performed accordingly. Findings show that wholesale prices of wheat in Delhi markets remain higher than the prices of all other regional markets as regional markets are found to adjust their prices towards Delhi market. Distance of the wheat markets from each other is directly associated with threshold parameters, which are analogous to the transaction costs. Geographically dispersed wheat markets incorporate high transaction and vice versa.Research limitations/implicationsThe study argues that there is need to improve rural infrastructure and connectivity of the agricultural markets and remove market asymmetries through unified market regulating mechanisms across the states. This will enable price adjustment process from primary wholesale markets (in production regions) to the secondary wholesale markets (in scarcity regions) quickly.Originality/valueThe contribution of the study in the existing literature lies in the fact that there are no empirical evidences in the context of India that use price transmission as a tool of market integration among spatially separated wheat markets using TVCEM as this model examines role of transaction costs in efficient functioning of the agricultural markets.

An Empirical Study on Relationship between Residents’ Disposable Income and CPI Based on TVECM: Application of Bootstrap SupLM Testing for Threshold Cointegration

Based on the fluctuation characteristics of residents’ disposable income and CPI (Consumer Price Index) in different periods, this article introduces a nonlinear threshold cointegration theory, establishes a TVECM (Threshold Vector Error Correction Model) of the residents’ disposable income and CPI. We propose an algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimation under the condition of cointegration vector and threshold value which are unknown and then propose a SupLM test for the presence of a threshold. The asymptotic distribution of the SupLM statistic is analyzed, and it appears to depend on the moment functionals, so tabulated critical values are unavailable. We discuss how the residual bootstrap can be used to calculate asymptotic critical values and p values, investigate the size and power of the SupLM test using Monte Carlo simulation, and find that the test works quite well. In the empirical section, we apply our methods to test and estimate the TVECM of residents’ disposable income and CPI. According to the experimental results, the causal relationship between residents’ disposable income and CPI under different mechanisms is tested and compared with the test results under the linear cointegration hypothesis. The empirical results show that the disposable income of residents and CPI belong to a two-mechanism nonlinear threshold cointegration system. When the deviation from the equilibrium state exceeds the threshold value, the system may adjust to the equilibrium state, and the adjustment speed of CPI shall be faster than that of the residents’ disposable income.

Long-run relationship between the unemployment rate and the current account balance in the United States: An empirical analysis

In recent years, political rhetoric implying international trade hinder employment has gained momentum. We argue that the dynamics between the unemployment rate and the current account balance have both economic and political relevance. The presence of cointegration between the unemployment rate and the current account balance to GDP ratio and the nature of their short-run fluctuations will help us analyze the dynamics between the two objectively to evaluate the political rhetoric. We use quarterly data from 1948: Q1 to 2020: Q1 on the unemployment rate and current account balance to GDP ratio in the United States. Traditional cointegration tests fail to detect any cointegration. However, threshold cointegration tests confirm statistical evidence of threshold cointegration between the two. The estimated threshold vector error-correction model shows statistically significant evidence of falling unemployment rate coupled with deteriorating current account balance. This finding indicates that as unemployment rates go down, the current account balance deteriorates to maintain the long-run co-movement. Arguably, as the unemployment rate decline, concurrently imports rise faster than exports causing the current account balance to deteriorate. This finding thereby refutes the political rhetoric.

Gold-oil dynamic relationship and the asymmetric role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from Bayesian pdBEKK-GARCH with regime switching

The crude oil and gold markets have affected economies in various aspects and are highly sensitive to geopolitical risks. However, the literature remains understudied with studies on the relationship between the link of gold-oil and geopolitical risks. To examine nonlinear and asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on the relationship of gold-oil, this paper first employs the Bayesian positive diagonal BEKK-GARCH model to capture the time-varying correlation between gold market and oil market. Secondly, the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) results reveal a transmission running from geopolitical risks to the relation of gold-oil in the long run. Thirdly, our study further shows diversity in different time scales using the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT) method. Specifically, the geopolitical risks volatility is affected by the gold-oil in the short term and gradually becomes independent in the medium-long term. Finally, we find that geopolitical risks play a dominant role in the extreme regime. These findings are of great significance for investors with different horizons to understand the relation of gold-oil markets under the impact of the geopolitical risks and to make suitable diversification of portfolios.

THE IMPACTS OF PARTICIPATION BANKS ON REAL ECONOMY: A CASE OF TURKEY

Bu çalışmada, 2003:01-2019:08 dönemi için Türkiye’de katılım bankalarının reel ekonomi üzerindeki asimetrik etkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu kapsamda katılım bankaları tarafından kullandırılan fonların reel ekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri Hansen-Seo eşbütünleşme testi ve eşik değişkenli vektör hata düzeltme modeli (TVECM) aracılığıyla analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, katılım bankaları tarafından kullandırılan fon miktarının düşük olduğu rejimde, fon miktarında meydana gelen artışın ithalat, ihracat ve reel sektör güven endeksini arttırdığını; fon miktarının yüksek olduğu rejimde ise fon miktarında meydana gelen artışın ithalat, ihracat, sanayi üretim endeksi ve reel sektör güven endeksini pozitif olarak etkilediğini göstermektedir.

Is there a long-run relationship between the unemployment insurance and the labor force participation rate in the USA? A nonlinear analysis

PurposeThis paper explores the evidence of a long-run co-movement between aggregate unemployment insurance spending and the labor force participation rate in the USA. The unemployment insurance (UI) program tends to expand during an economic downturn and contract during an expansion. UI may incentivize unemployment and may also facilitate better matching in the labor market. Statistical evidence of the presence of a co-movement will thus shed new light on their dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThis research applies time-series econometric approach using monthly data from 1959:1 to 2020:3 to test threshold cointegration and estimate a threshold vector error-correction (TVEC) model. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics.FindingsThe Enders and Siklos (2001) test find evidence of threshold cointegration between the two indicating the presence of long-run co-movement. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics find evidence that the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in labor force participation rate adjust simultaneously to maintain the long-run co-movement above the threshold in the short run. The author also observes the same short-run dynamics for the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in the labor force participation rate for females.Research limitations/implicationsThis model is bi-variate by construction and does not address causality.Practical implicationsThe author argues that the UI program positively impacts the female labor market outcomes, for example, better matching. This finding may explain the upward trend in the labor force participation rate for females in the USA.Social implicationsThe research findings may justify the transfer programs for minority and immigrants.Originality/valueThis is first research that analyzes the UI programs impact on the labor force participation using a macroeconometric approach. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study in this genre.

Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Case of Wheat in India

In the present paper, horizontal and vertical integration was carried out on the wholesale and retail prices of wheat in the major markets of India. On confirming cointegration between the wholesale and retail prices of wheat in all needs, the vector error correction model (VECM) was applied to find the speed of adjustment in the corresponding price channel. The results revealed that price signals are transmitted across regions, indicating that price changes in one market are consistently related to price changes in markets and can influence the prices in other markets. In addition to studying cointegration, threshold autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum TAR (MTAR) models were applied to test for asymmetric cointegration. Hasen and Seo’s test was used to test for the presence of threshold cointegration. It revealed a significant presence of asymmetric and nonlinear cointegration in many markets. Accordingly, a threshold VECM (TVECM) model with two regimes was applied. The results indicate that the retail price significantly responds to the deviations from the long-run equilibrium compared to the wholesale price.

ANALYZING PRICE TRANSMISSION IN THE NIGERIAN CATTLE MARKET

The study analysed price transmission in the Nigerian cattle market. Time series price data, for ten states (Borno, Cross River, Edo, Kano, Nassarawa, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Yobe and Zamfara) for the years, 2002-2017 were used for the analysis. The summarised result on Threshold Vector Error Correction model showed that positive and negative deviations for eight states (Borno, Cross River, Edo, Nassarawa, Osun, Plateau, Yobe and Zamfara) exceeded their respective threshold values. Also all the values of the above threshold values are not equal to the below threshold values,indicating the presence of asymmetric transmission. The presence of asymmetric transmission showed price changes along the chain (from farmer/marketer to consumer) was greater than the market costs of handling cattle and agents will be in a greater position to implement price changes before transmission takes place. This indicates strong asymmetric price transmission since price changes moved from bottom of the chain to the top. There is need to improve on the market information system in the country so that information will flow to all the markets.

Do protectionist trade policies integrate domestic markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute

We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States. The benefits of trade liberalization are widely acknowledged, including better domestic-to-foreign price transmission due to reduced tariffs and lower trade costs between countries. Yet in recent years we see efforts to protect specific domestic groups, including producers, through a revival of protectionist trade policies. Such policies could improve the domestic price transmission across domestic markets as consumers may seek lower-cost alternatives domestically. We investigate these ideas using a bi-variate three-regime threshold vector error-correction model to examine the spatial price transmission between Canadian and U.S. markets and within U.S. domestic markets. We do that by introducing a structural break at the start of an effective free trade period within our sample. The results suggest that duty-free treatment for imported Canadian softwood lumber substantially lowers the transaction costs between the two nations. Prices are more easily transmitted from the Canadian market to the U.S. at a higher speed, but the speed of price transmission in the reverse direction is not statistically significant. The U.S. domestic market experienced a higher speed of price adjustment across domestic regions prior to the free trade period, which provides evidence that protectionist policies lead to better domestic market integration.