Long-run relationship between the unemployment rate and the current account balance in the United States: An empirical analysis

Abstract

Listen

Translate article

In recent years, political rhetoric implying international trade hinder employment has gained momentum. We argue that the dynamics between the unemployment rate and the current account balance have both economic and political relevance. The presence of cointegration between the unemployment rate and the current account balance to GDP ratio and the nature of their short-run fluctuations will help us analyze the dynamics between the two objectively to evaluate the political rhetoric. We use quarterly data from 1948: Q1 to 2020: Q1 on the unemployment rate and current account balance to GDP ratio in the United States. Traditional cointegration tests fail to detect any cointegration. However, threshold cointegration tests confirm statistical evidence of threshold cointegration between the two. The estimated threshold vector error-correction model shows statistically significant evidence of falling unemployment rate coupled with deteriorating current account balance. This finding indicates that as unemployment rates go down, the current account balance deteriorates to maintain the long-run co-movement. Arguably, as the unemployment rate decline, concurrently imports rise faster than exports causing the current account balance to deteriorate. This finding thereby refutes the political rhetoric.