Threat Of Change Research Articles

From Caves to the Savannah, the Mitogenome History of Modern Lions (Panthera leo) and Their Ancestors.

Lions (Panthera leo) play a crucial ecological role in shaping and maintaining fragile ecosystems within Africa. Conservation efforts should focus on genetic variability within wild populations when considering reintroduction attempts. We studied two groups of lions from two conservation sites located in Zambia and Zimbabwe to determine their genetic make-up, information that is usually unknown to the sites. In this study, we analysed 17 specimens for cytb and seven microsatellite markers to ascertain family relationships and genetic diversity previously obtained by observational studies. We then produced a standardised haplogroup phylogeny using all available entire mitogenomes, as well as calculating a revised molecular clock. The modern lion lineage diverged ~151 kya and was divided into two subspecies, both containing three distinct haplogroups. We confirm that Panthera leo persica is not a subspecies, but rather a haplogroup of the northern P.l. leo that exited Africa at least ~31 kya. The progenitor to all lions existed ~1.2 Mya, possibly in SE Africa, and later exited Africa and split into the two cave lion lineages ~175 kya. Species demography is correlated to major climactic events. We now have a detailed phylogeny of lion evolution and an idea of their conservation status given the threat of climate change.

The twin challenges of longevity and climate change in controlling antimicrobial resistance.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the global health challenges of the 21st century that is faced with the twin threats of global climate change and greater longevity, which pose a synergistic risk to the management of AMR. Antimicrobial agents are in high demand due to the challenges faced by increasing life expectancy and the dynamic changes in disease ecology prompted by climate change. In light of global aging and climate change, the complexity and importance of addressing antibiotic resistance are further highlighted by this interplay of issues.

Optimized model predictive control for solar assisted earth air heat exchanger system in greenhouse

Agricultural greenhouses play a crucial role in addressing the threat of climate change to agricultural systems. The greenhouse systems control exhibits nonlinear characteristics and large lag, both affecting the regulation of the greenhouse thermal environment. In this paper, a control strategy was designed to set the dynamic reference value of the control objective of the greenhouse model, considering factors such as solar radiation and the heating capacity of water body. A complete greenhouse model was developed using TRNSYS, and then the model predictive control building and optimization were implemented through MATLAB. The control effects of traditional proportional-integral-differentiation control, initial model predictive control, and optimized model predictive control were compared. The results showed that the regulation of greenhouse temperature was improved by 10.6 % in the coldest mouth compared to the conventional proportional-integral-differentiation control by the optimized model predictive control. During a typical cold month, the violation of constraints was reduced by 29.7 % by dynamically setting the target of the greenhouse with the optimized model predictive control. The performance of greenhouse climate control is enhanced by the proposed optimized model predictive control method, ensuring a stable regulation of the crop growth environment.

Seasonal Variation Of Wave Attenuation Capacity Of Canadian Saltmarsh Vegetation

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for coastal protection have been widely recognized as sustainable, economical, and eco-friendly alternatives to conventional grey structures, particularly under the threat of climate change (Temmerman et al., 2013). Living shorelines are a form of NbS, which incorporate natural elements (such as saltmarshes) that provide flood and erosion risk management benefits. Climate change impacts, such as rising sea levels and reducing sea-ice cover (Savard et al., 2016), are increasingly motivating communities in Canada to consider incorporating living shorelines in coastal protection schemes. The efficacy of wave energy dissipation by vegetation depends on both hydrodynamic conditions and plant characteristics. However, plant parameters, such as standing biomass exhibit seasonal fluctuations, leading to corresponding variations in attenuation capacity (Schulze et al., 2019). Hence, the design of NbS utilizing saltmarsh vegetation must account for seasonal variations to ensure sustained efficacy, especially within the context of Canadian regional climates, which are typically characterized by extended, stormy winters and shorter summer seasons. Few studies have quantified wave attenuation by real saltmarsh vegetation in large-scale laboratory facilities (Möller et al., 2014; Maza et al., 2015; Ghodoosipour et al., 2022), particularly for species native to the east coast of Canada. There is a knowledge gap on how seasonality affects wave attenuation by saltmarsh vegetation and how attenuation varies from the lower marsh to the higher marsh depending on species-specific plant traits. Research is needed to bridge this gap and develop technical guidance for the design of performant living shorelines in Canada.

Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

A comprehensive review on the impact of climate change on the ecology, breeding seasonality, abundance and distribution of birds and possible approaches to address and conserve bird populations

The purpose of this paper is to review and evaluate published literature on the impact of climate change on birds. A systematic method was utilized to access research works of literature on “Impact of Climate Change on Birds”. A total of sixty-seven (67) research papers published between the years 1962 to 2023 was accumulated and used for this review. A subjective approach was used to select the topics: impact of climate change and birds. In this paper, nine (9) threatening impacts of climate change on the bird populations were assessed and presented as well as three (3) detrimental impacts of climate change on birds inhabiting mangrove forests. Further, this paper assessed some birds that are threatened with extinction and it also provided a checklist of some migratory birds that are threatened due to the changing climate and that are found on the RED list of the IUCN. Approaches and strategies to enhance and address bird conservation to combat the effect of climate change was also presented in this review. The published works of literature established that the global bird population dynamics, ecology, breeding seasonality, abundance and distribution are all affected due to the threats of climate change. Climate change will affect birds indirectly in the future by modifying their habitats through sea level rise, changes in fire regimes, and changes in vegetation or land use. Birds are in particular vulnerable to environmental changes like climate change since they are subject to continuous changes that may be negatively connected. This review highlights the fact that more extensive studies on the impact of climate change on birds should be done in neotropical countries since there are gaps of such information on research and published data in these biodiversity rich regions.

Toward a Green Jobs Alternative: Examining the Politics of Internationalism and Labour Environmentalism in a Local Union Campaign

Industrial workers and their organizations are faced with two interrelated crises as the continued reorganization of production shutters plants and devastates communities while the existential threat of climate change grows. Addressing both crises at once often seems impossible. This article offers a critical analysis of a campaign by unionists and community allies to confront both crises at once, to see their shuttering auto plant taken over and retooled for socially useful production. The failure of the campaign to win its demands or build a critical mass of support within the union emphasizes the importance and difficulty of inspiring workers to imagine radical alternatives during times of crisis.

Shrimp Farmer’s Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies to the Threat of Climate Change in Bangil District, East Java

As one of the main stakeholders in the fishing industry, shrimp farmers are directly affected by climate change that causes changes in seawater temperature, rainfall, and unpredictable weather patterns. Related to the issue, the threat to income may be felt by shrimp farmers. Therefore, in this study, we highlight two objectives as a basis for drawing up this article, namely (1) to understand shrimp farmers’ perceptions of climate change, and (2) to identify factors that influence farmers’ decisions in implementing adaptation strategies. There are two types of analysis that we use, namely descriptive analysis and logit regression analysis. Our findings show that the majority of shrimp farmers consider climate change manifested in the form of changes in rainfall patterns (96.21%), increases in pond water temperatures (98.71%), decreases in yield production (95.41%), and increases in shrimp pests and diseases (96.23%). The results of our logit regression analysis show that the decision-making factors of shrimp farmers are significantly influenced. These results indicate that the implementation of adaptation strategies in the fisheries sector can generate significant growth and reduce the risks posed by climate change. As a result, the government needs to encourage the development of more suitable climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale shrimp farmers in Indonesia.

Innovative Applications of XR in Architectural Sustainability: Current Trends and Future Prospects

Due to the limited global resources and the threat of climate change, sustainable development has become a critical issue. This study aims to delve into the various applications of Extended Reality (XR), including Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), and Mixed Reality (MR), in sustainable architectural design. Through virtual experiences, visualisation of architectural ecosystems, BIM integration, and environmental simulations, XR technology provides designers with a more comprehensive dataset and perspective. However, despite showcasing the potential of XR technology, further research and practical implementation are necessary to deepen our understanding of its role in architectural sustainability and address potential technological and application challenges. The article emphasizes the need to holistically consider multiple dimensions of data when applying XR technology in architectural design, enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of the sustainability of design solutions.

Potential threats of glacial lake changes to the Sichuan-Tibet Railway

Abstract The Sichuan-Tibet Railway, China's second inland railway to Tibet, is currently being constructed and will run between Chengdu and Lhasa. It will cross the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and be surrounded by glacial lakes, some of which may pose a threat of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events. Both the specific location and the outburst susceptibility of these glacial lakes are largely unknown. In this study, we mapped the glacial lakes using declassified Corona KH-4 and Hexagon KH-9 from the 1960s and Sentinel-2 imagery from 2020 and assessed their spatio-temporal changes. GLOF-susceptibility criteria were established based on historical GLOF events. The results show that the total area (number) of glacial lakes has increased by 22% (20%) from 126.1 ± 2.4 km2 (1662 lakes) in the 1960s to 153.6 ± 11.1 km2 (1994 lakes) in 2020. Of these lakes, this study identified 38 very high and 85 high GLOF-susceptibility lakes; mainly distributed along the Bomi-Nyingchi railway section in the Parlung Zangbo River basin. Four of the very high GLOF-susceptibility glacial lakes may pose a threat to the railway and will require monitoring. The insights from this study can be used to mitigate the risk of GLOFs during the construction and maintenance of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway.

Design and application of coastal erosion indicators using satellite and drone data for a regional monitoring program

Coastal erosion is a complex issue that affects landforms at various spatio-temporal scales, with concerns rising due to the impending threats of climate change. Given the increasing availability of coastal shoreline data, we identify a gap in present coastal management methods: the need for a simple and cost-effective mechanism to track and compare shoreline trends, to inform high-level reporting, down to local management scales. This study introduces simplified, automated erosion indicators, demonstrated for 20 morphologically diverse beach sites across the temperate coast of Victoria, Australia. The methods utilise coastal drone surveys (2018–2023; 560 surveys) and satellite-derived shorelines (Digital Earth Australia Coastlines, 1988 to 2021). Two tools are introduced: (1) the Erosion Warning Indicator, for high-level reporting, reducing multiple aspects of shoreline change (long-term vs. short-term; widespread vs. hotspot) to a simplified scoring system allowing overall site assessment and comparison across sites; and (2) the Erosion Hotspot Detector, to aid local managers to automatically identify and analyse emerging erosion areas. Results for a 2-year period (2021-22) indicate one site with a high erosion warning level, and four sites with a moderate level. Tracking the indicator over time (2018–2022) identifies two sites with persistently high erosion warning levels (Apollo Bay and Marengo). Importantly, the indicators also highlight areas where recent erosion trends differ from longer-term patterns (e.g., Inverloch), allowing re-evaluation of short-term expenditure on management interventions, without impacting longer-term adaptation pathways. The erosion indicators presented here hold value for coastal managers in many parts of the world. If comparable approaches are introduced and shared at scale, we will collectively be better equipped and informed to respond to future challenges to our coastlines.

Environmental control of interannual and seasonal variability in dinoflagellate cyst export flux over 18 years in the Cape Blanc upwelling region (Mauritania)

The increasing threat of anthropogenic environment and climate change amplifies the urgency to investigate the effect of these changes on marine ecosystems. We provide information about the export flux of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts between 2003 and 2020 in the upwelling ecosystem off Cape Blanc (Mauritania), one of the world’s most productive regions. We compared the cyst export flux with variability in environmental parameters, such as wind speed, wind direction, dust emission, sea surface temperature (SST), SST difference between trap location and open ocean (SSTa), and chlorophyll-a concentration. This information is valuable to determine the ecological signal of dinoflagellate cysts that could be applied in recent and paleo records. The total export production of dinoflagellate cysts fluctuated between 0 - 1.18 x 105 cysts m-2 d-1 for the heterotrophs and 0 - 1.06 x 104 cysts m-2 d-1 for the photo-/mixotrophs. The export productions of both groups were in line with changes in upwelling intensity, which in most years, intensified in spring - summer. Dinoflagellate cyst association was dominated by heterotrophic taxa that formed an average of 94% of the association throughout the sediment trap record. A strong interannual variation in the cyst export fluxes, as well as the association composition was observed in the record. We identified five groups that showed comparable variability in export production with changes in environmental conditions: (1) maximal upwelling; Echinidinium delicatum/granulatum, E. transparantum/zonneveldiae, Echinidinium spp., Trinovantedinium spp., and Protoperidinium latidorsale, (2) combined maximal upwelling and dust input; Archaeperidinium spp., P. americanum, P. stellatum, and P. subinerme, (3) upwelling relaxation; Gymnodinium spp. and L. polyedra, (4) warm surface waters; Bitectatodinium spongium and Protoceratium reticulatum, (5) species with no specific relationship to the studied environmental variables; Brigantedinium spp., E. aculeatum, Impagidinium aculeatum, P. conicum, P. monospinum, Pentapharsodinium dalei, and Spiniferites spp. The sediment trap record documented a gradual shift in the cyst taxa association that co-occurred with the gradual increase of Saharan dust input to the region, notably after 2008. The cyst association contained five photo-/mixotrophic taxa that were formed by potentially toxic dinoflagellates. The latter could cause threats to the socio-economy of coastal communities.

Analysis of the Impact of Temperature Changes on the Productivity of Arabica Coffee Plants (Coffea arabica) Based on Coffee Farmer Adaptation Response

The productivity of coffee plants is highly dependent on changes in environmental temperature. This change caused several problems with its productivity, including: crop failure, decreased coffee bean quality, and decreased crop quantity. In addition, coffee farmers do not understand the impact it causes so that farmers are unable to make appropriate adaptation responses to the threat of changes in environmental temperature. This study aims to determine the impact caused by changes in environmental temperature on Arabica coffee plants based on the response of coffee farmers in Cipaganti village, Garut regency, Indonesia. The research method used is descriptive qualitative. Data collection was carried out using interviews, observation and documentation studies. Sampling using purposive sampling technique with the criteria of respondents who have their own land and have been farming for at least 5 years. The results showed that all farmers knew and felt changes in environmental temperature at the study site with an indicator of temperature rise. Changes in temperature have caused a decrease in productivity, a decrease in fruit quality, an increase in pest and disease attacks such as fruit borer, stem borer and leaf rust.

Accepting responsibility? Institutions and the security implications of climate change

Who has responsibility for addressing the security implications of climate change? States and the United Nations justify their existence on the promise of providing security. Yet, although the national and international security implications of climate change are increasingly acknowledged, incorporation of climate change in national security planning or institutional arrangements is far from universal, while debates in the UN Security Council about its role in addressing climate change have been characterized by contestation. This article examines key debates about the responsibilities these institutions have for providing security in the face of the threats posed by climate change, examining the extent to which these institutions accept responsibility for providing security in these contexts. Drawing on Toni Erskine’s notion of institutional moral agency, the article examines a 2017 inquiry into the national security implications of climate change in Australia, and the September 2021 UN Security Council debate on the international security implications of climate change. These two case studies explicitly focus on the question of institutional responsibility – of the Australian Government and the UN Security Council respectively – for addressing the threat of climate change. In both cases these institutions stop short of accepting responsibility for providing security in the face of climate change, with limited policy responses or institutionalization as the result. With the security implications of climate change increasingly apparent, and increasingly recognized by these (and other) actors, the failure to accept responsibility raises potentially significant questions about the legitimacy of these institutions themselves.

Clean energy transition and climate vulnerabilities: A comparative analysis of European and non-European developed countries.

Currently, the world faces an existential threat of climate change, and every government across the globe is trying to come up with strategies to tackle the severity of climate change in every way possible. To this end, the use of clean energy rather than fossil fuel energy sources is critical, as it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and pave the way for carbon neutrality. This study examines the impact of the energy cleanability gap on four different climate vulnerabilities, such as ecosystem, food, health, and housing vulnerabilities, considering 47 European and non-European high-income countries. The study considers samples from 2002 to 2019. This study precedes the empirical analysis in the context of a quadratic relationship between the energy cleanability gap and climate vulnerability. The study uses system-generalized methods of the moment as the main technique, while panel quantile regression is a robustness analysis. Fixed effect and random effect models have also been incorporated. The study finds that the energy cleanability gap and all four climate vulnerabilities demonstrate a U-shaped relationship in both European and non-European countries, implying that when the energy cleanability gap increases, climate vulnerability decreases, but after reaching a certain threshold, it starts to increase. Development expenditure is found to be negatively affecting food and health vulnerabilities in European nations, while it increases food vulnerability and decreases health vulnerability in non-European nations. Regarding industrialization's impact on climate vulnerabilities, the study finds opposite effects for the European and non-European economies. On the other hand, for both groups, trade openness decreases climate vulnerabilities. Based on these results, the study recommends speeding up the energy transition process from fossil fuel energy resources towards clean energy resources to obtain carbon neutrality in both European and non-European groups.

The evolving role of wildfire in the Maritimes region of eastern Canada

The Maritimes region of eastern Canada is not typically associated with wildfire, but the severe 2023 fire season has reminded “Maritimers” that despite its cool, damp climate and diverse, mixed forests, the region is not immune to burning. In this perspectives article, we review the relationship of wildfire and the Maritimes by first providing a brief history on the role fire has played in shaping the forests of the Maritimes and our part in that relationship. We then describe the current state of wildfire management, including strategies and technologies used to prevent fire, and identify some key important challenges moving forward. Overall, our review shows that the people of this region have a long history with wildfire, but that since European colonization (1600s) the local fire regime has undergone significant shifts. While the introduction of forest protection legislation and technology during the early 20th century has greatly reduced the occurrence of fire and substantially lengthened the fire return interval, the growing, sprawling population of the Maritimes presents new challenges for managing fire in the wildland–urban interface. Combined with the threat of climate change, which is likely to increase the occurrence of wildfire, new urban planning and forest management strategies must be developed to address these emerging dangers.

Climate-Affected Australian Tropical Montane Cloud Forest Plants: Metabolomic Profiles, Isolated Phytochemicals, and Bioactivities.

The Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA) in northeast Queensland is home to approximately 18 percent of the nation's total vascular plant species. Over the past century, human activity and industrial development have caused global climate changes, posing a severe and irreversible danger to the entire land-based ecosystem, and the WTWHA is no exception. The current average annual temperature of WTWHA in northeast Queensland is 24 °C. However, in the coming years (by 2030), the average annual temperature increase is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1.4 °C compared to the climate observed between 1986 and 2005. Looking further ahead to 2070, the anticipated temperature rise is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.2 °C, with the exact range depending on future emissions. We identified 84 plant species, endemic to tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) within the WTWHA, which are already experiencing climate change threats. Some of these plants are used in herbal medicines. This study comprehensively reviewed the metabolomics studies conducted on these 84 plant species until now toward understanding their physiological and metabolomics responses to global climate change. This review also discusses the following: (i) recent developments in plant metabolomics studies that can be applied to study and better understand the interactions of wet tropics plants with climatic stress, (ii) medicinal plants and isolated phytochemicals with structural diversity, and (iii) reported biological activities of crude extracts and isolated compounds.

Intergenerational concern relates to constructive coping and emotional reactions to climate change via increased legacy concerns and environmental cognitive alternatives

As the threat of climate change looms large, and we experience first-hand the impacts of rapid global warming, researchers and clinicians emphasize the need to better understand the impact of these changes on our mental health. Existing research suggests that coping with and emotional reactions to climate change can promote action to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change and reduce its negative impacts to one’s mental health. In this pre-registered study (N = 771) we examined whether people who display extreme intergenerational concern would also constructively cope with climate change. Empirically-identified individuals showing high intergenerational concern reported more problem-focused and meaning-based coping, and less avoidant coping strategies with climate change. Further, even though they felt guilty, angry, sorrowful and isolated, these individuals also felt hopeful about the future. These effects were explained by increased concerns about one’s legacy and higher access to environmental cognitive alternatives. By instilling values that highlight intergenerational concern as a key priority, we could thus not only increase pro-climate action, but also help individuals actively and constructively cope with changes produced by climate change.

ANALISIS STRATEGI PENGEMBANGAN KAMPUNG PERIKANAN BUDIDAYA RUMPUT LAUT DI DESA LONTAR KABUPATEN SERANG

The amount of seaweed production in Lontar Village which decreases every year needs to be analyzed to increase the amount of seaweed production in Lontar Village. In this study, an analysis of internal and external factors of seaweed cultivation business in Lontar Village will be conducted. Formulation of development directions using SWOT analysis. Based on the results of IFAS and EFAS analysis, internal and external factors have 5 factors. Strengths include people's interest in large seaweed farming businesses, labor is easy to obtain from families and communities, seaweed cultivation technology is simple and easy, large seaweed cultivation areas are available and harvesting and maintenance periods can be arranged. Weaknesses include lack of knowledge and skills in the cultivation business, seaweed is susceptible to pest and disease attacks, the quality and quantity of seeds are not supportive, there is no seaweed processing industry and poor water quality that affects harvesting. Opportunities include export market potential, superior products of government programs, seaweed processing industry, seaweed processing technology and facilities and infrastructure. Threats include the threat of climate change, lack of training from extension workers, fluctuating seaweed prices, loss of generations of seaweed farmers and assistance from the government has not met the needs of farmers and has not been evenly distributed. Based on the results of the matrix analysis, the right strategy applied to seaweed farming business in Lontar Village is the S-O (Progressive) strategy. The S-O (Progressive) strategy consists of investing in innovative technology and training, creating a sustainable seaweed processing industry, utilizing government program support, optimizing the use of cultivated areas and taking advantage of export opportunities. Keywords: SWOT analysis, Seaweed, Lontar Village.

A Neighbourhood Unit for Equitable Resilience

The early twentieth-century concept of the neighbourhood unit aimed to use spatial planning to redress problems associated with that era of urbanization in the US and Europe, including car traffic, pollution, and social alienation. We ask how this influential and controversial concept might be adapted to address today's most vexing urban challenges: climate change hazards and widening inequality. Drawing on a diverse array of global case studies, we argue that the neighbourhood can be a unit for 'equitable resilience', but only if we reconceptualize neighbourhoods in significant ways. First, 'neighbourhood' must be defined more capaciously to include not just the middle-class enclaves envisioned by Clarence Perry and other early neighbourhood planning advocates, but also places that are home to disadvantaged residents, from mixed-income communities to public housing, informal settlements, and manufactured home parks. Second, for neighbourhood interventions to bring lasting equitable resilience, they must be linked to analysis and action on wider spatial and political scales. Finally, to ensure resilience will be equitable, neighbourhood scale interventions must link built environment changes to institutional changes that improve conditions in the domains of livelihoods, environmental safety, governance, and security from displacement. In short, to be units for equitable resilience, neighbourhoods must help residents build the power to act in the face of climate change and other threats.