Third Wave Of Democratization Research Articles

Domestic Constraints in the Genesis of Western Style of Democracy in China

The last decade of the twentieth century is full of some form of democratic transition all around the world. Samuel P. Huntington described this phenomenon as the “Third Wave of Democratization” in his book The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. There is this Modernisation Theory which explains the phenomenon of transition of the state into a democratic form of government by analyzing the economic and social progress of the states. China undoubtedly has progressed a lot economically in the last three decades and with the increasing affluence, society is also changing simultaneously. As modernization theory explains that economic progress is followed by political reforms. But still, China has managed to carry its economic growth trajectory up and improved the lives of hundreds of millions of people without making many concessions in the political field. It is still governed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which is more or less authoritarian. China is among one of the few states which are still undemocratic in nature in western scholar perspectives. There is a lot of speculation about China’s future and its political system. But democracy does not have just one form in which every political system has to be fit. Chinese government and Academicians claim that China has its form of democracy. The Chinese government claims that they are regularly carrying political reform but these political reforms are far away from the western style of democracy. Some domestic constraints constrained the growth of the western style of democracy in China.

Emergent Programmatic Politics and Gradual Demise of Neopatrimonial Tendencies* in Ghana’s Electoral Democracy

Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa experienced regime change after the thawing of the cold war. Ghana like other countries in the sub-region, arranged for multiparty elections to displace years of authoritarian rule. After three decades of the second independence, the Africanist literature on electoral politics has generated a debate on the continuity of neopatrimonialism, weak parties and voting intentions largely based on ethnic and clientelistic tendencies. But there have been relevant works that have challenged these narratives. Relying on secondary literature, online news items, centre for democratic development (CDD) pre-election survey and some field notes, this article positions it itself within the ongoing debate by challenging the simplistic narratives how Ghana’s democracy has spurred neopatrimonialism, where parties are weak and present no credible policy positions and thus the linkage mechanism between voters and parties are predominantly ethnic and clientelistic. It argues that for about three decades after the third wave of democratization, there is an emergent programmatic politics in Ghana.

Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization

AbstractVarious theories in political science point to temporal heterogeneity in relationships of interest. Yet, empirical research typically ignores such heterogeneity or employs fairly crude measures to evaluate it. Advances in models for change point detection offer opportunities to study temporal heterogeneity more carefully. We customize a recent such method for political science purposes, for instance so that it accommodates panel data, and provide an accompanying R-package. We evaluate the methodology, and how it behaves when different assumptions about the number and abrupt nature of change points are violated, by using simulated data. Importantly, the methodology allows us to evaluate changes to different quantities of interest (for various estimators). It also allows us to provide comprehensive estimates concerning uncertainty in the timing and size of changes. We illustrate the utility of this flexible change point methodology on two types of regression models (Probit and OLS) in two empirical applications. We first re-investigate the proposition by Albertus (2017) that labor-dependent agriculture had a more pronounced negative effect on democratic survival before the “third wave of democratization.” Next, we utilize data extending from the French revolution to the present, from V-Dem, to examine the time-variant nature of the income–democracy relationship.

Demokrasiye Geçiş ve Ordu: İspanya ve Türkiye Karşılaştırması

Democratic transitions may have unintended consequences. Modes of transition exert significant influence on post-transition outcomes. Here, I focus on two most similar cases; Spain and Turkey, included in the ‘Third Wave of Democratization’. After an evaluation of critical junctures by using Croissant, Kuhn, Chambers and Wolf (2010)’s framework, I argue that civil-military relations during transitions are key to explain post-transitional outcomes. The extent to which military power was influential in transitional decision making creates a long-lasting impact for the political regimes. Hereby, I recall the importance of a comparative analysis of historical cases to develop an understanding of emerging democracies in an era of democratic decline.

Theoretical Framework of Democratic Transition: Mechanisms of Democratization

Democratic transition from authoritarian rule has been an important focus of scholarly interest since 1970s. The democratic transition literature presented many concepts, theoretical arguments, methodological and analytical approaches to tackle with this phenomenon. This huge academic accumulation came in conjunction with what was called the third wave of democratization which started in the mid-seventies beginning from southern Europe, and extended during the decades of the eighties and nineties to include many countries around the globe. Democratic transition can be defined as a political process of establishing or enlarging the possibility of democratic participation and liberalization. This process reflects the redistribution of power between the state and the civil society. It is accompanied by the appearance of different centers of power and the introduction of the political debate. The article concentrates on the mechanisms which lead to the consensus between political actors which perform this democratic transformation. Democratic transition thus always requires a mechanism of negotiations, political talks, facilitating compromises between authoritarian politicians and democratic opposition and engendering a minimum level of trust between these parties. The strategy of political compromise has a major impact on the stability of society during the democratic transition period. This article addresses the concept of democratic transition alongside with general theories of democratization and the emergence of democratic transition studies. It focuses on some aspects in explaining the democratic transition theory. The negotiations, political talks and their impact on democratic transitions are also explored by the author. The article specifies the ways and methods through which the democratic transition is taking place in the global world.

Constitutional courts in transitions to democracy: Limits, critiques and possibilities in Brazil and Argentina

After World War II, a court-centered model of democratization and transitional justice has developed and consolidated. Trough adjudication, courts could promote the consolidation of liberal democratic governance, protecting fundamental rights, limiting state power and promoting stability and predictability in the interpretation of the law, to attract investments. However, decades after the start of the third wave of democratization, analyses of the jurisprudence of these courts reveal a less convincing performance of its democratizing role. We ask whether the courts have effectively advanced the consolidation of liberal democracy, by analyzing its two fronts: the protection of fundamental rights and the consolidation of liberal economic policies. Based on case studies of key decisions made by the constitutional courts in Brazil and Argentina, of a qualitative nature, we argue that the performance of the courts does not match the high expectations of the model of court-centric democratization.

Participatory constitution-making: Introduction

Abstract At least since the late eighteenth century, constitutions have been understood as emanations of the will of “the People,” as the ultimate expression of an inherent popular sovereignty. In the form of theories of constituent power, accounts of constitutional foundations blended notional or conceptual “descriptions” of the People, which anchored the political legitimacy of constitutional orders in the idea of hypothetical consent, with empirical claims that the nation’s actual people were represented in constitution-making processes through elected delegates and thereby were the authors of and gave consent to its fundamental law. As part of the third wave of democratization, there was an important shift in what popular participation consisted of—from indirect participation by elected representatives to direct, popular participation in the constitution-making process. As a matter of constitutional process, this led to the growing practice, and expectation, that major constitutional changes should be ratified through referenda.

The Perils of Parliamentarism: Chasing the Flows of the Third Wave of Democratization in Asia

What is the present state of democracy among the Asian countries that were (re)democratized during the third wave of democratization? What makes the differences? Why some specific factors play prominent role on the deepening of democracy among them? These are the primary questions of this study. The findings from ten young Asian democracies are as follows. First, all the Asian countries that (re)democratized during the third wave of democratization are practicing democratic system at present. Six of them experienced the breakdowns, while four remain as a continuous democracy. Second, out of eleven structural and institutional factors, examined in this research, only the presidential system has clearer positive impact and economic development has a partial effect on the deepening of democracy. Indirect dictatorship or dominancy of family politics in the parliamentary democracies is found as main reason for the perils of parliamentarism among young Asian democracies.

The foundations of hybrid authoritarian state capitalism in Hungary

Authoritarian capitalist practices are gaining foothold not only in non-democratic states, such as China, but even in countries with strong liberal institutions. From Greece to the US, an increasing number of countries show its symptoms: curtailing democratic contestation in order to stabilise accumulation. Hungary is one of the most puzzling cases. Hungarian elites followed the good governance blueprints of international institutions, implementing liberal political and economic reforms between 1990 and 2010. For long, the country was considered to be a frontrunner of the third wave of democratisation, yet now it is seen as the prime example of the illiberal turn. Orbán’s political-economic model, hybrid authoritarian capitalism institutionalised by the accumulative state, has been stable for eight years now. To understand the emergence, stability and potential vulnerability of this regime, this article digs deeper into the contradictions of post-socialist liberal policies.

The Evolution of Legitimation, Cooptation and Repression in Authoritarian Regimes: Singapore and Ethiopia in Comparative Perspective

Following a dramatic shift in the geopolitical environment after the Cold War, the world ushered in a new age of democratic expansion. This third wave of democratization, described by Samuel P. Huntington as a global trend that saw countries undergo some form of democratic transition, heralded new democratic governments in regions such as Eastern Europe, hitherto stalwart bastions of socialist dictatorship. But were these political developments a wave, or just a ripple? Did this period truly mark a global and decisive shift toward more egalitarian and democratic governance? Critics suggest that it does not, pointing to the survival of authoritarian regimes in other regions of the world, such as in South-East Asia and Africa. For these regimes, the twin pressures of democratization and globalization may have necessitated a choice between maintenance of retrograde dictatorship and democratic transition, but their desire to remain in power only provided sufficient incentive to disguise authoritarianism behind the facade of democracy. This study thus seeks to decipher the design and dynamics of contemporary authoritarian regimes as contributing factors for their longevity. It delves into the changing nature of the measures of legitimation, co-optation, and repression that the regimes in Singapore and Ethiopia have adopted to placate their critics, citizens, and challengers. It seeks not just to describe why these autocratic states repress, but crucially, also how they do so against the backdrop of calls for democratization.

A Lost Decade for Third-Wave Democracies?

By comparing results based on expert and popular surveys, this article finds that popular support for democracy was dwindling even in the decade before expert surveys (such as Freedom in the World and V-Dem) began to show the reality of democratic retreat. Decreasing support for democracy is tied to low satisfaction with how democracy works in practice, and it contributes to the rise of populist leaders who concentrate power in the executive branch. These phenomena reflect the waning capacity of the state to improve governance across all countries. As a result, democracy is likely to face another lackluster decade if both structural and institutional problems are left unsolved.

Parties, Civil Society, and the Deterrence of Democratic Defection

The third wave of democratization has given way to a reverse wave of autocratization. A critical question is what can be done to prevent democratic breakdowns and make democracy endure. A large body of historical-narrative and small-N comparative scholarship has suggested that an active mobilized civil society and institutionalized political parties can be mobilized to protect democracy from authoritarian takeovers. We provide the first rigorous set of empirical analyses to test this argument using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project for the period from 1900 to 2010. We find that both exert a robust, independent, and substantial effect on the survival of democracies. These findings have important policy implications for the international community.

Revocatoria de mandato en América Latina: ¿democracia directa o democracia electoral?

En este artículo se indaga por el alcance de la revocatoria de mandato como mecanismo de democracia directa. La revocatoria de mandato es un mecanismo de control ciudadano adoptado por varios países latinoamericanos tras la tercera ola de la democratización y en el contexto de una crisis de la representación. Algunas reglamentaciones prevén una campaña para que los partidos y sus líderes informen al votante e influyan políticamente su decisión en el referéndum (mediación electoral). Otras, dejan al ciudadano en completa libertad para elaborar su propia opinión (autogobierno). Para lograr este objetivo se efectúa un estudio normativo de las constituciones y leyes nacionales de los Estados latinoamericanos que allí la incluyen. En el análisis se concluye sobre los obstáculos interpuestos por las normas al ejercicio directo de la soberanía popular.

Beyond the differential gains model: the effects of authoritarian orientation, social media use, and political discussion on political participation in Taiwan and South Korea

ABSTRACTIn an attempt to investigate the roles of authoritarian orientation, social media use, and political discussion in shaping political participation in transitional democracies, this study analyzes nationwide surveys (N = 1,637; N = 1,200) from two third-wave democracies: Taiwan and South Korea, within the theoretical framework of the Differential Gains Model (DGM). The hierarchical regression indicated that in both societies, the effects of social media use and political discussion were positively associated with political participation; authoritarian orientation was only negatively associated with political participation in Taiwan. No significant moderation effects of the two communication variables emerged, whereas a significant-moderated moderation effect among the three predictors emerged in South Korea. This study extends the existing literature on DGM in three ways. First, it optimizes the conventional DGM through incorporating a new ideological variable – authoritarian orientation; second, it buttresses previous findings but also reveals results that were at odds with the extant body of knowledge; third, it bridges the gap of single contextualization by extending the DGM research to the non-Western democracies.

Law and Development of Constitutional Democracy in China: Problem or Paradigm

China is frequently portrayed as a problem case for the law and development movement and modernization theories. For some, the problem is that China has enjoyed remarkable economic growth in the last several decades, apparently without the benefit of “the rule of law,” thus challenging the prevailing view that a legal system that enforces property rights is necessary, if not sufficient for sustained economic growth. For others, the problem is political in nature. China has resisted the third wave of democratization, and remains an officially socialist state, even if a unique twenty-first century version of a socialist state that has endorsed a market economy and rule of law. Some fear that “since China is an increasingly important and influential country in world affairs, China’s continuous anti-democracy diplomacy would have significant impact on the diffusion of . . . democracy throughout the world.” Indeed, some believe that Russia’s recent tilt toward authoritarianism reflects the influence of the success of the Chinese model of markets without democracy.

Post-Cold War autocratization: trends and patterns of regime change opposite to democratization

AbstractThe so-called third wave of democratization is over and scholars are increasingly alert to the apparently growing number of regime changes in the opposite direction. However, there is little agreement concerning how many distinct forms these processes can take, and even less systematic cross-regional analysis of the phenomenon, which diminishes our ability to seize its actual import. Accordingly, this article pursues a twofold goal. First, we present a framework for the analysis of the processes opposite to democratization. Specifically, we build on the notion of ‘autocratization’, identify similarities and differences between the various forms it can take, and catalogue how it can happen. Second, we provide new data on post-Cold War cases across the world and use these data to map the prevailing trends. The analysis confirms the increasing empirical relevance of the phenomenon, and reveals the existence of a few geographical and historical patterns in the forms and modes of contemporary autocratization.

Presidential Term Limit Contravention: Abolish, Extend, Fail, or Respect?

Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted by many states during the third wave of democratization, 221 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their term(s) in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits, resulting in either full abolition, one-term extensions, or failure. What explains these divergent trajectories? I argue that trends in electoral competition over time best predict term limit outcomes, with noncompetitive elections permitting full abolition, less competitive elections allowing for one-term extensions, and competitive elections leading to failed bids. This is because electoral trends provide informational cues to the president’s co-partisan legislators and constitutional court judges (the actors who ultimately rule on constitutional term limit amendments) about the cost/benefit analysis that voting to uphold or repeal term limits would have on their own political survival. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally.

Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization

Various theories in political science point to temporal heterogeneity in relationships of interest. Yet, empirical research typically ignores such heterogeneity or employs fairly crude measures to evaluate it. Advances in models for change point detection offer opportunities to study temporal heterogeneity more carefully. We customize a recent such method for political science purposes, for instance so that it accommodates panel data, and provide an accompanying R-package. We evaluate the methodology, and how it behaves when different assumptions about the number and abrupt nature of change points are violated, by using simulated data. Importantly, the methodology allows us to evaluate changes to different quantities of interest. It also allows us to provide comprehensive and nuanced estimates concerning uncertainty in the timing and size of changes. We illustrate the utility of the change point methodology on two types of regression models (Probit and OLS) in two empirical applications. We first reinvestigate the proposition by Albertus (2017) that labor-dependent agriculture had a more pronounced negative effect on democratic outcomes before the `third wave of democratization'. Next, we utilize data extending from the French revolution to the present, from V-Dem, to examine the time-variant nature of the income-democracy relationship.

Регіональні процеси демократизації на африканському континенті з погляду транзитології та теорії «демократичних хвиль».

The study of the problem of democratization on the African continent in the current political situation is updated due to the increasing role of Africa in the international arena and the careful attention of researchers to the real results of transit in individual countries in the post-colonial period. The author’s motivation to develop a specific topic is due to the revealed differences in the definition of models and concepts of transition, including in the interpretation of its stages, varieties, role of the state, etc., and ambiguous expert assessments of the scientists of the potential of the third wave of democratization in African countries. The purpose of the study is to analyze the specifics of the course of regional processes of democratization in the African continent and their consequences in terms of transitology and the theory of democratic waves. As a result of elaboration of the topic, the genesis of the basic concepts of the study – transitology and the theory of democratic waves is revealed. On the basis of the analysis of scientific sources, it was revealed that the theoretical constructs as scientific assumptions of scientists with the practical results of transit of the countries of different regions and parts of the world were not matched. On the basis of the worldview (cultural, ethno-national, religious, mental) and socio-economic aspects of the development of the peoples of the continent, the content of the category democratic transition has been clarified regarding the peculiarities of the political transformations in individual countries of Tropical and South Africa: Nigeria, Niger, Guinea, Mali an so on. The stages of democratization are analyzed on the example of South Africa as a model of democracy on the continent and the establishment of a unitary republic model with elements of federalism on the basis of political consensus between the African National Congress, Zulu, and Boer national parties. The empirical part of the study projected theoretical models of transit into the sociopolitical processes of the countries of Tropical and South Africa and formulated appropriate generalizations of the deterministic democracy with traditionally established regional developmental features. The impact on social transformations of external and internal factors, political parties, nationalcivic movements and individual leaders was evaluated. The specifics of regional processes aimed at eliminating autocracy and establishing new political regimes in Africa have been clarified. The reasons for slowing down change on the continent and possible ways of overcoming them are identified. Conclusions have been formulated on the gradual and unpredictable transit of establishing a new political order.

ПОРТУГАЛИЯ: РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ ПОСТРЕВОЛЮЦИОННЫХ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЙ

In 2019, 45 years of the “Carnation Revolution” (the Revolution in the Portuguese Republic on April 25, 1974) – an outstanding historical event of national and cross-border scale – are celebrated. The Portuguese Revolution resulted from both the internal development of the Portuguese Republic and a chain of important historical events on a global level. The end of the World War II, the collapse of fascism, struggle for elimination of the colonial system led mankind to understanding the need for social and political modernization. A fresh wind of change in the early 1970s also touched Portugal. The past decades have shown that the April Revolution was part of a global process of authoritarian and totalitarian regimes collapse in all regions of the world, known as the “third wave of democratization”. The value of Portuguese events went beyond one country. They were the impetus for the development of democratic processes in other regions, particularly in Europe and South America. The “Carnation Revolution” launched the process of decolonization that has created on the site of the Portuguese colonies a number of independent states. During the relatively small period (by historical standards), Portugal has made significant progress in economic and social spheres, has established a stable political system capable of responding to external and internal challenges. Because of the democratic transformation, a decrepit colonial empire with a closed authoritarian regime was transformed into a country open to the world, with a European-style political system which respects the rule of law, guarantees fundamental rights and freedoms for citizens. The Portuguese have changed without changing themselves, preserving the national identity and traditions, the unique place that the country occupies in world history and at present. The Revolution has not only changed the trajectory, but also radically expanded the horizons of interaction between Lisbon, the states of the European continent and other parts of the world. In the current, extremely complex international situation, Portugal aims to strengthen its position on the world stage, expand the circle of trade, economic and political counterparts. One of important partners in the system of Portugal’s foreign economic ties is the Russian Federation. Despite many problems of the last time, Russian-Portuguese relations based on mutual interest maintain positive dynamics.