Thermal Power Sector Research Articles

The Relationship Between Production Efficiency and Factor Allocation Efficiency: A Case Study Based on Thermal Power in China

This paper introduces a novel decomposition method for analyzing production efficiency based on the Data Envelopment Analysis framework, addressing the limitations of traditional approaches that often fail to isolate the contributions of individual factors. The proposed method disaggregates production efficiency into capacity utilization, labor utilization efficiency, energy utilization efficiency, and technological change, providing a more granular view of how different factors contribute to overall efficiency. By incorporating both contemporaneous and intertemporal perspectives, this approach enables a comprehensive understanding of efficiency dynamics and factor interactions over time. To demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the proposed method, we apply it to the thermal power industry using data from 30 Chinese provinces covering the period from 2011 to 2021. The empirical results validate the effectiveness of the decomposition framework, revealing distinct regional disparities in efficiency and providing insights for targeted resource optimization strategies. Based on these findings, we offer recommendations to enhance capacity utilization, improve energy efficiency, and support sustainable development within the thermal power sector. This research contributes a powerful analytical tool for disaggregating production efficiency and offers a theoretical foundation for future studies seeking to understand the nuanced relationships between comprehensive production efficiency and single-factor efficiencies, thereby supporting better policy and management decisions in complex production systems.

Stranded Asset Impairment Estimates of Thermal Power Companies Under Low-Carbon Transition Scenarios

The aspiration to reach the net zero carbon target has initiated new ideas for the sustainable development of the world economy. However, it has also accelerated the formation of stranded assets in high-carbon-emitting companies. Taking a Chinese thermal power company as an example, this paper proposes a model to estimate the degree of impairment loss for thermal power companies by integrating the net present value model with forward-looking carbon emission pathways under different policy intervention scenarios. The results show that under the low-carbon transition scenario with different policy interventions, the percentage of impairment loss of thermal power companies reaches up to 64.09%. Furthermore, impairment losses formed by stranded assets in the thermal power sector impose a severe shock on the national economy, as most of the impairment losses will ultimately be borne by the state treasury. Compared with conventional thermal power generation, new-energy power generation has a weak performance in delaying company bankruptcy caused by stranded assets. Therefore, in the process of a low-carbon transition, governmental departments should focus on the impairment loss of thermal power companies caused by stranded assets and should further integrate “green support” and “brown punishment” policies to effectively promote the low-carbon transition of thermal power companies.

Efficient Combustion of the Fixed Coal Layer in an Advanced Combustion Chamber Design for Low-Power Boilers

In the long term, coal will remain a competitive resource in the thermal power sector, primarily due to its abundant global reserves and low costs. Despite numerous factors, including significant environmental concerns, the global share of coal power generation has remained at 40% over the past four decades. Efficient and clean coal combustion is a high priority wherever coal is used as a fuel. An improved low-power boiler design has been proposed to enhance efficiency during fixed-bed coal combustion. This design reduces harmful emissions into the atmosphere by optimizing parameters and operating modes. In this study, mathematical modeling of gas velocity and temperature distribution during fixed-bed coal combustion was conducted for a conventional grate system and an improved grate-free system. Experimental methods were employed to develop descriptive airflow models in the fixed coal layer, considering nozzle diameter and air supply pressure in the furnace chamber without a grate system. Comparative evaluations of fixed-bed coal combustion rates were performed using an experimental laboratory setup with both grate and grate-free stove systems.

Reducing Measurement Costs of Thermal Power: An Advanced MISM (Mamba with Improved SSM Embedding in MLP) Regression Model for Accurate CO2 Emission Accounting.

Current calculation methods for the carbon content as received (Car) of coal rely on multiple instruments, leading to high costs for enterprises. There is a need for a cost-effective model that maintains accuracy in CO2 emission accounting. This study introduces an MISM model using key parameters identified through correlation and ablation analyses. An Improved State-Space Model (ISSM) and an IS-Mamba module are integrated into a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) framework, enhancing information flow and regression accuracy. The MISM model demonstrates superior performance over traditional methods, reducing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 22.36% compared to MLP, and by 9.65% compared to Mamba. Using only six selected parameters, the MISM model achieves a precision of 0.27% for the discrepancy between the calculated CO2 emissions and the actual measurements. An ablation analysis confirms the importance of certain parameters and the effectiveness of the IS-Mamba module at improving model performance. This paper offers an innovative solution for accurate and cost-effective carbon accounting in the thermal power sector, supporting China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Will fuel switching ever happened in China’s thermal power sector? The rule of carbon market design

Will fuel switching ever happened in China’s thermal power sector? The rule of carbon market design

Optimal CCUS Supply Chain toward Carbon Neutrality: Novel Framework for Thermal Power, Iron-Steel, and Cement Sectors

Optimal CCUS Supply Chain toward Carbon Neutrality: Novel Framework for Thermal Power, Iron-Steel, and Cement Sectors

Cost-benefits analysis of ultra-low emissions standard on air quality and health impact in thermal power plants in China

As China's largest energy infrastructure, thermal power plant consumed approximately half of China's coal over the past decade and threatened air quality, human health and socioeconomic development. Thus, a series of control policies have been implemented to alleviate those impacts in China. Particularly, China has witnessed unprecedented declines in air pollutant emissions from thermal power plants since the ultra-low emissions (ULE) standards were implemented. In contrast, the effect of the ULE policy on air quality, health and cost benefits remains poorly understood. Therefore, this study estimates the improved air quality and associated health and economic benefits under the ULE standards in the thermal power sector by using a measure-specific approach, combining a bottom-up emission inventory, an atmospheric model, a health assessment model and a cost analysis model. The results show that all the control measures lead to reduced air pollution, and renovating pre-existing units (RPU) is the most effective. Compared to without implementing the ULE policy, the population-weighted average PM2.5 and O3 concentrations decreased by 1.50 μg/m3 and 0.87 ppm, and 67,831 premature deaths could be avoided nationally. Furthermore, the results also show the net economic benefits of combining health benefits and costs due to control measures are 109.92 billion Yuan (in 2015 value) in China. The comprehensive results reveal that the health benefits outweigh the direct policy. Based on these empirical findings and the specific circumstances of China, we suggest that RPU should be further promoted to the entire of China, and if necessary, establish a long-term compensation mechanism for inter-provincial interests and institute and enforce comprehensive policies that carefully consider the health impacts of policies. This study provides strong arguments for China's policy-making and considering tightening emission standards for thermal power plants worldwide.

An assessment of demographic variables affecting employees’ organizational commitment in India’s thermal power sector

This study aims to analyze the impact of three demographic variables (gender, age, and work experience) on the commitment levels of employees in the Indian thermal power sector. 379 responses were collected through convenience sampling from the executives of NTPC Ltd, a major power utility in India. The facets of organizational commitment (affective commitment, normative commitment, and continuance commitment) were assessed using a standard scale. The quantitative research was done using statistical instruments of one-way ANOVA and independent sample t-test. The findings revealed a positive correlation between the three components of organizational commitment: affective, continuance, and normative. Further, the results highlighted that age plays an essential role in organizational commitment levels; it is found that commitment increases with the age of employees (F = 5.781, p < 0.01). However, gender is not making any variation in organizational commitment (F = –0.502, p < 0.01). Therefore, male and female employees enjoy equal commitment levels toward their work. The study further indicated that work experience significantly influences organizational commitment (F = 4.800, p < 0.01), and it is found to be greater for more experienced employees.

Can China achieve carbon neutrality without power shortage? A substitutability perspective

The thermal power sector is responsible for more than 40% of China's carbon mitigation targets, making it critical in achieving carbon neutrality. However, the adoption of the “one-size-fits-all” discontinuation and “campaign-style” mitigation, driven by mandatory national regulatory constraints, has triggered pressing livelihoods and economic shocks such as electricity restrictions and shortages. To balance the carbon mitigation targets with electricity security in China, this study utilizes Morishima elasticity of substitution to identify heterogeneous production strategies for each plant under carbon neutrality. More specifically, how thermal power plants respond to carbon reduction targets. Results indicate that almost half of the thermal power plants could reconcile national targets with corporate profits, while the remaining plants could only meet national binding targets by reducing production. Additionally, about 20% of inefficient plants will opt to transfer emissions, such as increasing weakly regulated emissions, to secure revenue. The basic characteristics of thermal power plants under different production strategies are also analyzed. Finally, this study discusses how to develop electricity-carbon synergies and prevent productive speculation under the carbon neutrality transition from the perspectives of corporate production and tax deferment policy, and propose corresponding policy suggestions.

Air pollution and associated health impact and economic loss embodied in inter-provincial electricity transfer in China

As the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world, China heavily relies on coal resources for thermal power generation. Owing to the unbalanced distribution of energy resources, electricity transfer among regions in China plays a key role in promoting economic growth and ensuring energy safety. However, little is known about air pollution and the related health impacts resulting from electricity transfer. This study assessed PM2.5 pollution and related health and economic losses attributable to the inter-provincial electricity transfer in mainland China in 2016. The results show that a large amount of virtual air pollutant emissions were transferred from energy-abundant northern, western and central China to well-developed and populated eastern coastal regions. Correspondingly, the inter-provincial electricity transfer dramatically reduced the atmospheric levels of PM2.5 and related health and economic losses in eastern and southern China, while increasing those in northern, western and central China. The health benefits attributable to inter-provincial electricity transfer were mainly found in Guangdong, Liaoning, Jiangsu and Shandong, whereas the extra health loss is concentrated in Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang. Overall, the inter-provincial electricity transfer led to an extra increase of 3600 (95 % CI: 3200–4100) PM2.5-related deaths and 345 (95 % CI: 294–389) million USD of economic loss in China in 2016. The results could assist air pollution mitigation strategies for the thermal power sector in China by strengthening the cooperation between suppliers and consumers of electricity.

The regional discrepancies in the contribution of China’s thermal power plants toward the carbon peaking target

China’s thermal power sector accounted for 45 % of total carbon emissions. Significant regional discrepancies exist between the plants to reach the carbon peaking target, which was overlooked in current research. This study investigates the regional discrepancies of the thermal power plants towards the carbon peaking target firstly. A thermal power plant database with ∼ 4500 power units in 298 cities to evaluate the emission reduction potential, expected carbon peaking period, and co-benefits. Results show that the carbon emission of the sector will experience a 7.2 % rise between 2019 and 2035, but the emission intensity decline by 27.6 g CO2/kWh. Nearly-one-third of the cities have risks not reaching the carbon peaking target before 2030, while most cities can reduce air pollutant emission. This study reveals the inconsistency between spatial carbon emissions and reduction potential of the thermal power plants and proposes several policy suggestions to the whole sector’s decarbonization.

Operational performance evaluation and efficiency assessment of thermal power sectors of Pakistan using data envelopment analysis

Operational performance evaluation and efficiency assessment of thermal power sectors of Pakistan using data envelopment analysis

Hybrid modeling-based digital twin for performance optimization with flexible operation in the direct air-cooling power unit

The thermal power sector, one of the major CO2 emissions sources, is urged quicker steps to come up with an action that enables coal savings and carbon emissions reduction in China. Flexible operation is a growing trend among thermal power plants owing to the ever-increasing installation of renewable energy power resources. However, flexible operation comes with performance degradation, energy consumption growing and CO2 emissions increment. This study proposes a digital twin system for a direct air-cooling unit to determine the optimal back-pressure and corresponding fan frequency modulation under various operating conditions to minimize the coal consumption and maximize the unit profit. Thus, a hybrid model of the digital twin system integrating an extreme gradient boosting algorithm tuned by a particle swarm optimization algorithm and a domain knowledge-based analytical formulation for the optimal back-pressure is proposed. The proposed digital twin system is applied to a 600 MW on-duty direct air-cooling power unit. In the industrial case study, the proposed system saved 535.526 tons of standard coal and decreased CO2 emissions by 1335.068 tons within two weeks, which is remarkable.

Exploring a Design of Carbon Tax for Coal- and Lignite-Based Thermal Power Sector in India

According to India’s ‘Third Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’, electricity production contributes half of India’s total carbon dioxide (CO2) emission (without land use, land-use change and forestry [LULUCF]) and 40% of CO2e (CO2 equivalent) emission in 2016. Coal- and lignite-based thermal power sector is the predominant source of electricity generation in India, and it contributes 74% in 2019–2020. In the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26), India has committed to achieve net zero (in CO2e emission) target by 2070. Therefore, any strategy to reduce the total CO2e emission in India cannot spare emission reductions from coal- and lignite-based thermal power plants (TPPs). To accelerate achieving India’s emission intensity reduction target to 45%, we explore a design of carbon tax for coal- and lignite-based TPPs. Given the constraints involved in designing carbon tax based on cost-benefit analysis as well as integrated assessment models, we estimate a revenue neutral rate of tax on CO2e emission by converting taxes on coal and lignite. Our carbon tax proposal sets the floor (minimum) rate, and it requires regular upward revisions to induce TPPs to take action. To reduce disruptions in tax administrations, we propose adjustments of input tax credits with carbon tax liability. JEL Classification: H23, Q54, Q4, P43

Evaluation of Vietnam air emissions and the impacts of revised power development plan (PDP7 rev) on spatial changes in the thermal power sector

Emission reduction in the thermal power sector is highly prioritized by the Vietnam government to combat climate change and air pollution. This study developed an updated 2019 Vietnam emission inventory (base-year) using a bottom-up approach and the future emission projections up to 2030 to evaluate the potential emission changes due to regulatory measures from the Power Development Plan 7 Revision (PDP 7 rev). Results show that emission contributions from coal-fired thermal power plants (TPP) to total emissions (i.e., SO2, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5) ranged from 67.8% to 97.0% in 2019, and the annual emissions of global warming potential are expected to increase more than double (i.e., 335.8 Tg CO2e) due to the increased coal-fired TPPs between 2019 and 2030. A gradual reduction in NOx is anticipated from 2025, resulting from the scheduled installation of selective catalytic reduction systems, which would trigger a shift of NOx hotspots from Northern Midland to North Central in 2030. Overall, the study illustrated that even though NOx emissions are expected to decrease in 2030 due to effective pollution controls, carbon emissions would still escalate due to the intensive use of coal-fired TPPs. It poses a challenge to Vietnam's future carbon neutrality process.

Examining the Effects of Installed Capacity Mix and Capacity Factor on Aggregate Carbon Intensity for Electricity Generation in China.

Promoting technological advancements and energy transitions in electricity generation are crucial for achieving carbon reduction goals. Some studies have examined the effectiveness of these measures by analysing the driving forces of “aggregate carbon intensity” (ACI) change. However, only a few studies have considered the effect of the installed capacity mix and capacity factor. Moreover, such analysis has never been applied at China’s provincial level after 2015. To alleviate this gap, our study applied a temporal and multi-regional spatial IDA-LMDI model to analyse the driving factors of ACI changes and disparities among the provinces of China from 2005 to 2019. The model notably includes the effects of the installed capacity mix, thermal capacity factor, and overall capacity factor. The analysis revealed that the decline in China’s ACI was diminished after 2015, while an ACI rebound was identified in five provinces. The changes in the ACI from 2015 to 2019 were mainly driven by the effect of the installed capacity mix rather than by the thermal efficiency and thermal capacity factor. The overall capacity factor was the only factor with a negative impact on the ACI change. We also found that its combined effect with the thermal capacity factor on increasing ACI can offset the effect of the installed capacity mix by reducing the ACI in provinces with significant additions of renewable energy installed capacity. The analysis of the influencing factors on the provincial ACI differences revealed that the share of hydropower installed capacity was significant. Moreover, the thermal efficiency and thermal capacity factor both played key roles in the ACI disparities in northeast, northwest, and central China. Overall, this study paves the way for data-driven measures of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals by improving the capacity factor of wind and solar power, leveraging the critical impact of hydropower, and narrowing the differences in the thermal power sector among provinces.

Comprehensive evaluation of electricity generation and emission reduction potential in the power sector using renewable alternatives in Vietnam

The electricity generation in developing countries is primarily fossil fuel-oriented, leading to substantial air and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is projected that Vietnam's GHG emissions will be increased significantly by 2030 due to heavy reliance on fossil fuel-fired power plants in rapid economic development. This study projected and evaluated the benefits of adopting green and renewable sources (i.e., municipal solid wastes (MSW) and solar power) in terms of its electricity generation and emission reduction (in CO2e) in 2030. The Life cycle assessment (LCA) was adopted to investigate the potential emission reduction per unit of electricity generation (kg CO2e/ kWh) from the waste-to-electricity process under different operational conditions (i.e., collection, operation, and disposal). The results show that for future solar power generation, 9557 GWh of electricity with 8219 Gg CO2e of GHG emission saving was projected in 2030 under the average estimation scenario, while for waste-to-electricity, 12,991 GWh of electricity with 4910.5 Gg CO2e saving was projected. Overall, the results illustrate appreciable GHG emission savings from adopting green and renewable energy practices. It sets out a good example for developing countries who are seeking ways of curbing their growing GHG emissions to combat global climate change. It should be aware that although a considerable emission reduction in the thermal power sector is anticipated through adopting renewable and green alternatives, it is still important for the Vietnam government to limit or stop the growth of fossil fuel-fired power plants (especially for coal-fired) for the future environmental sustainability.

Sustainable transition pathways with high penetration of variable renewable energy in the coal-based energy systems

The sustainable transition of an entirely coal-powered energy system is a challenge that can be solved by integrating variable renewable energy sources and considering the synergic effect between energy supply and different sectors of energy consumption. This research shows how the scaling-up in variable renewable energy sources uptake and sector coupling while maintaining high flexibility in thermal power plants can be achieved in a coal-based energy system. The Kosovo energy system is modelled in the EnergyPLAN model as a case study. Appropriate energy transition pathways have been defined to meet the national energy policies by 2030. Five different scenarios that took into account the increase of renewable production capacities, flexible operation of coal-based thermal power plants and sector coupling options for a suitable primary energy mix by 2030 are have been discussed. Significant differences in annualized technology and emission costs can be observed between scenarios. In addition, scenario three seems to be the least cost in comparison to other scenarios. The total CO2 emissions for projected scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in 2030 accounted for 4.78, 5.28, 4.48, 3.97 and 4.95 MtCO2/year, respectively. In addition, the total annual costs for projected scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in 2030 accounted for 2168, 1611, 1993, 2479 and 2817 MEUR, respectively.

Decomposing CO2 emission changes in thermal power sector: A modified production-theoretical approach

Carbon emission from the thermal power generation sector is one of the main contributors to global warming. It is critical to objectively evaluate the influence of relevant factors on carbon emissions, which may be beneficial for the implementation of policies and the formulation of development plans. However, the current decomposition approach based on production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) and weak disposability may cause deviation on potential emission reduction. This paper proposes a modified PDA model under the assumption of semi-disposability and decomposes the carbon emission changes of China's thermal power generation sector accordingly. The results show that provinces, which have the highest non-disposal degrees during the study period, are mostly located along the east coast of China. The growth in installed capacity is identified as the largest contributor to the increase in national carbon emissions, while the decrease in capacity utilization rate significantly benefits the carbon emission reduction. A cluster analysis is also conducted to give policy implications for provinces with similar characteristics. Compared with traditional methods under strong and weak disposability assumption, the proposed model shows great advantages in identifying the potential emission reduction and reflecting the real production process, which makes it more suitable for decomposing the changes of carbon emissions and other environmental pollutants.

Operational Performance Evaluation & Efficiency Assessment of Thermal Power Sectors of Pakistan Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Operational Performance Evaluation & Efficiency Assessment of Thermal Power Sectors of Pakistan Using Data Envelopment Analysis