Evaluation of Vietnam air emissions and the impacts of revised power development plan (PDP7 rev) on spatial changes in the thermal power sector

Abstract

Emission reduction in the thermal power sector is highly prioritized by the Vietnam government to combat climate change and air pollution. This study developed an updated 2019 Vietnam emission inventory (base-year) using a bottom-up approach and the future emission projections up to 2030 to evaluate the potential emission changes due to regulatory measures from the Power Development Plan 7 Revision (PDP 7 rev). Results show that emission contributions from coal-fired thermal power plants (TPP) to total emissions (i.e., SO2, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5) ranged from 67.8% to 97.0% in 2019, and the annual emissions of global warming potential are expected to increase more than double (i.e., 335.8 Tg CO2e) due to the increased coal-fired TPPs between 2019 and 2030. A gradual reduction in NOx is anticipated from 2025, resulting from the scheduled installation of selective catalytic reduction systems, which would trigger a shift of NOx hotspots from Northern Midland to North Central in 2030. Overall, the study illustrated that even though NOx emissions are expected to decrease in 2030 due to effective pollution controls, carbon emissions would still escalate due to the intensive use of coal-fired TPPs. It poses a challenge to Vietnam's future carbon neutrality process.