Theory Of Voting Research Articles

Alles eine Frage von Kosten und Nutzen? Eine Aggregatdatenanalyse der Abstimmungsbeteiligung in den deutschen Bundesländern zwischen 1946 und 2019

AbstractDirect democracy in Germany is primarily practiced at the state level. However, little research has analysed why participation rates vary, sometimes drastically, between individual referendums in Germany. The following article addresses this research gap with an analysis of a new aggregate dataset of participation in referendums in the federal states between 1946 and 2019. Based on the Rational Choice Theory of voting, three main factors may explain the variance in participation rates. Higher participation rates can be anticipated when the expected benefit for voters is high (state‐initiated referendums, constitutional or restructuring referendums); when the participation costs are reduced (by combining referendums with salient parallel elections); and when the result is expected to be close. The article demonstrates the analytical usefulness of the Rational Choice Approach. It can serve as a starting point for future empirical referendum participation research, which is hardly developed in Germany, especially at the individual level.

Political polarization, voting and democratic representativeness: Too much or too little?

This contribution evaluates the mediating role of different political contexts and levels of democratic consolidation on the effect of party system polarization on ideological vote and discusses how this relationship enhances democratic representativeness. The influence of party system polarization on ideological voting is analyzed in two areas: the voters' competence in identifying parties' ideological positions; and the voters’ tendency to vote for the most ideologically proximate party, which is one of the key features of the spatial theories of voting. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) from 1996 to 2019 and multilevel modelling techniques, the paper compares how those features vary across different types of countries, particularly older and newer democracies, and different regions of the world.

The Voter Basis and the Admissibility of Tree Characters

Let ≽ be a total order on the power set of a finite set [n]. A subset S ⊂ [n] is separable when for any X,Y ⊂ S and any Z ⊂ [n] − S, the ordering of X and Y is the same as the ordering of X ∪ Z and Y ∪ Z. The character of a preference order is the collection of all separable subsets. Motivated by questions in the theories of voting, marketing and social choice, the admissibility problem asks which collections \(\mathcal {C} \subset \mathcal {P}({[n]})\) can arise as characters of preference orders. We introduce a linear algebraic technique to construct preference orders. Each vector in our 2n-dimensional voter basis induces a simple preference preorder (where ties are allowed) with nice separability properties. Given any collection \(\mathcal {C} \subset \mathcal {P}({[n]})\) that contains both ∅ and [n], and such that all pairs of subsets are either nested or disjoint, we use the voter basis to construct a preference order with character \(\mathcal {C}\).

Asian American Candidate Preferences: Evidence from California

The diversity of the Asian American population presents challenges for theories of bloc voting, partisan voting, and descriptive representation. What cues (if any) do Asian American voters rely on? How informative are racial and partisan cues to Asian American voters. This article looks at the candidate preferences of Asian American voters in the 2018 election. I look at elections where an Asian American candidate was on the ballot and compare outcomes within district to the gubernatorial race (a race with no minorities on the ballot). I use surname-coded voter registration records and precinct-level vote returns to estimate Asian American candidate preferences as a racial group and by national-origin. I find strong evidence of national-origin preferences (i.e. Vietnamese for a Vietnamese candidate) among Asian American voters. In instances where the national-origin of the candidate and the national-origin of the voter did not align, voters seem to rely on partisan cues. National-origin preferences are sufficient enough that in one instance voters switched parties within the same election to vote for a candidate of the same national-origin. These findings have implications for theories of minority vote choice and challenges the existing literature on the strength of partisan cues (replication data can be found at: https://sites.google.com/view/vivienleung/research).

Financial bailouts and the decline of establishment politics

This article identifies and tests a mechanism to explain how exposure to financial bailouts accounts for the electoral decline of establishment parties. Given the limitation of economic voting theories to fully explain the electoral shifts observed in Europe from 2010 onwards, this research develops a different explanation. Citizens who were exposed to the macroeconomic conditions of financial bailouts not only observed the consequences of drastic fiscal adjustment packages but, possibly, also underwent a process of political learning. By putting economic responsibility before policy responsiveness, establishment parties showed citizens that voting for these parties did not necessarily implied policy change. This political learning led some citizens not to vote for these parties in subsequent elections. These theoretical claims are tested using individual data from the sixth round of the European Social Survey as well as data from European and parliamentary elections observed between 1991 and 2019 in eleven countries of the Eurozone.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ВИБОРЧОЇ КАМПАНІЇ У США: ТЕОРІЯ І ПРАКТИКА КАМПАНІЇ 2014 РОКУ

The proposed article analyzes the motives for voter behaviour before and during the election. It is stated that understanding the patterns of their actions greatly mitigates the surprise of the election results. Recently, political scientists, sociologists, and analysts have learned a great deal about how voters actually make decisions that have a final impact on their choices, how important their views are for understanding democratic responsibility and social well-being. However, these studies have provoked more open-ended questions than answers. In the fall of 2014, the United States held by-elections to Congress. Scientists have another chance to test their versions of the American election results, to monitor the electoral behaviour patterns, to predict the results. Of particular interest, in terms of results, there is the behaviour of a voter known as swing voter. The article analyzes the social status of voters in this group, indicates the possible reasons for changing their electoral positions. Our study is based on a descriptive method and a method of systematic analysis of a number of procedures for collecting, primary analysis, and presentation of data and their characteristics. Administratively, we have focused our attention on the North-Eastern states, the findings of the study should be used responsibly to the situation in other regions of the country. The basic methodology is the most popular in the United States theory of retrospective voting. Its essence is that the political results should correspond to the indicators of competence and efficiency of the elected officials.

Estimating relative prevalence of competing issue voting rules in multiparty elections using finite mixture modeling

How do citizens of democratic polities translate their policy preferences into voting choices? Proximity and directional theories of issue voting offer different answers to this question that have strong implications for parties’ strategies. Controlled scenarios in imaginary two-candidate contests have gained popularity as a method to estimate proportions of proximity and directional voters in the population. However, this method is not always applicable in comparative research where scholars often have to study multiparty elections with observational data. In the present paper, I demonstrate how relative prevalence of different issue voting rules can be estimated using finite mixture modeling. Using both a paradigmatic and a recent case, I demonstrate that the mixture model predicts observed voting choices better than the alternatives. I also show how finite mixture modeling can be used to study individual-level characteristics of proximity and directional voters using education as an example.

Condorcet Voting Theory based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for Project Selection Problems

Condorcet Voting Theory based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for Project Selection Problems

The Incidence of Some Voting Paradoxes Under Domain Restrictions

Voting paradoxes have played an important role in the theory of voting. They typically say very little about the circumstances in which they are particularly likely or unlikely to occur. They are basically existence findings. In this article we study some well known voting paradoxes under the assumption that the underlying profiles are drawn from the Condorcet domain, i.e. a set of preference profiles where a Condorcet winner exists. The motivation for this restriction is the often stated assumption that profiles with a Condorcet winner are more likely than those without it. We further restrict the profiles by assuming that the starting point of our analysis is that the Condorcet winner coincides with the choice of the voting rule under scrutiny. The reason for making this additional restriction is that—intuitively—the outcomes that coincide with the Condorcet winner make those outcomes stable and, thus, presumably less vulnerable to various voting paradoxes. It will be seen that this is, indeed, the case for some voting rules and some voting paradoxes, but not for all of them.

ТЕОРИЯ РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНОГО ГОЛОСОВАНИЯ:

В последние годы в области объяснения поведения избирателей произошел ренессанс, в значительной степени обусловленный неожиданными исходами выборов. За минувшие пять лет ученые многое узнали о том, как избиратели на самом деле принимают решения и что их поведение подразумевает для демократической ответственности и общественного благосостояния. Тем не менее, эти достижения в области знаний также породили больше открытых вопросов, чем ответов. Ретроспективное голосование – это концепция в американской политической науке, суть которой сводиться к тому, что общество может оценивает прошлую политическую деятельность правительства. Избиратели рассматривают деятельность правительства по таким критериям как эффективность экономики, системы уголовного правосудия, социальной стабильности, экологические и медицинские результаты в сроки, установленные выборами (2-4 года), а потом через голосование на выборах граждане формулируют более успешные правительства.В Украине данная тема практически никогда не была освещена. Цель этой статьи дать системную оценку теории ретроспективного голосования, как ведущей теории современных электоральных демократий. Цель статьи была достигнута с помощью метода системного анализа.

Algebraic voting theory & representations of Sm≀Sn

We consider the problem of selecting an n-member committee made up of one of m candidates from each of n distinct departments. Using an algebraic approach, we analyze positional voting procedures, including the Borda count, as QSm≀Sn-module homomorphisms. In particular, we decompose the spaces of voter preferences and election results into simple QSm≀Sn-submodules and apply Schur's Lemma to determine the structure of the information lost in the voting process. We conclude with a voting paradox result, showing that for sufficiently different weighting vectors, applying the associated positional voting procedures to the same set of votes can yield vastly different election outcomes.

How do coalition signals shape voting behavior? Revealing the mediating role of coalition expectations

Existing empirical research suggests that there are two mechanisms through which pre-electoral coalition signals shape voting behavior. According to these, coalition signals both shift the perceived ideological positions of parties and prime coalition considerations at the cost of party considerations. The work at hand is the first to test another possibility of how coalition signals affect voting. This coalition expectation mechanism claims that coalition signals affect voting decisions by changing voters' expectations about which coalitions are likely to form after the election. Moreover, this paper provides the first integrative overview of all three mechanisms that link coalition signals and individual voting behavior. Results from a survey experiment conducted during Sweden's 2018 general election suggest that the coalition expectation mechanism can indeed be at work. By showing how parties' pre-electoral coalition behavior enter a voter's decision calculus, the paper provides important insights for the literature on strategic voting theories in proportional systems.

Pocketbook voting, social preferences, and expressive motives in referenda

We develop and test a theory of voting and turnout decisions that integrates self-interest, social preferences, and expressive motives. Our empirical analysis studies referenda among university students about whether to collectively purchase deeply discounted flat rate tickets for public transportation and cultural amenities. Individual usage data allow quantifying the monetary benefits associated with each ticket. We find that monetary benefits strongly influence participation and voting. However, social or expressive motives such as stated altruism are decisive for a significant minority. Based on our theory, empirical results rule out purely expressive voting.

Economic performance and electoral volatility: Testing the economic voting hypothesis on Indian states, 1957–2013

The consequences of variations in economic growth for vote volatility are analyzed on a panel of 14 Indian states between 1957 and 2013. Two measures of volatility are used: changes in party vote shares at the assembly level and changes in the state average of vote volatilities constructed at the constituency level. While the results find that both vary inversely with income growth rates, volatility at the constituency level is found to be more sensitive to growth rates. Examination of the periodicity of income growth’s impact finds that growth in the final year of governance has a stronger effect on volatility than does the average growth rate arising over the incumbent’s tenure. We confirm for Indian states that vote volatility responds more to negative changes than positive changes in the growth rate and, by decomposing volatility we find, contrary to most studies, that growth rates affect internal vote shifting more than shifting between exiting parties and newcomers. The responsiveness of volatility to economic and political characteristics of the state reinforces the hypothesis that theories of economic voting have an important role to play in understanding electoral volatility and may provide a more insightful way of approaching the political business cycle.

A modified method of discontinuity trace mapping using three-dimensional point clouds of rock mass surfaces

Abstract This paper presents an automated method for discontinuity trace mapping using three-dimensional point clouds of rock mass surfaces. Specifically, the method consists of five steps: (1) detection of trace feature points by normal tensor voting theory, (2) contraction of trace feature points, (3) connection of trace feature points, (4) linearization of trace segments, and (5) connection of trace segments. A sensitivity analysis was then conducted to identify the optimal parameters of the proposed method. Three field cases, a natural rock mass outcrop and two excavated rock tunnel surfaces, were analyzed using the proposed method to evaluate its validity and efficiency. The results show that the proposed method is more efficient and accurate than the traditional trace mapping method, and the efficiency enhancement is more robust as the number of feature points increases.

State Fiscal Constraints and Local Responses: Evidence from the Property Tax Limit Overrides in Massachusetts

AbstractThis research examines the determinants of the likelihood of property tax limit override attempts and successes in the context of Massachusetts's Proposition 2½. The authors apply the “Leviathan” government theory, median voter theory, and agenda‐setting theory to develop theoretical expectations and use data from Massachusetts municipalities for 1991–2013 as a sample for empirical tests. Override attempts are not randomly proposed; therefore, the two‐stage Heckman selection model is used to address selection bias in the investigation of the likelihood of override successes. Results show that a higher property tax rate reduces the likelihood of government officials’ override attempts, but previous override experiences have a positive influence. Voters bearing a higher property tax rate are less likely to approve the override, but override experiences in the previous year and the “menu” approach increase the likelihood of approval. Relatively more evidence supports the Leviathan government and agenda‐setting theories in explaining overrides of Massachusetts's property tax limit.

Election forecasts: Cracking the Danish case

Election forecasting models based on voting theories and estimated via regression analysis are routinely available for virtually all advanced industrial democracies. Denmark, however, offers an exception, for no such prediction equations have been published on the Danish case. This absence has sometimes been attributed to the puzzling nature of economic voting there, along with the complexity of its multi-party system, which renders formulation of the dependent variable problematic. We attempt to overcome these obstacles, offering a “synthetic” forecasting model for Danish national election outcomes, 1964–2015. The regression model, based on the variables of economic growth and vote intention, performs well, by various tests. Finally, we apply it, ex ante fashion, to the 2019 contest, where the prediction favored the Social Democratic led coalition, an outcome that came to pass.

Kde sa chodí voliť? Faktory ovplyvňujúce geografické rozloženie volebnej účasti v slovenských parlamentných voľbách

The main objective of the research was to test the predictive ability of five voter turnout theories in the conditions of Slovak society (the societal modernization theory, the theory of disenchanted voting, the socioeconomic status theory, the mobilization theory and the theory of habitual voting). To test the predictive ability of theories, three hypotheses were formulated and verified using quantitative methods such as multiple regression analysis and additional univariate statistical analyses. The results have shown that all five theories are relevant for explanation of the map of electoral participation in Slovakia. However, the interpretative contribution of individual theories has changed over time. While the theory of disenchanted voting was very relevant for explanation of regional differences in voter turnout in the 1990s and early 2000s, the societal modernization theory and the socioeconomic status theory gained more interpretative power in the 2010s. It was indicated by a significant contribution of independent variables such as the proportion university graduates or the net migration rate to the regression models for turnout. The effect of mobilization theory has been observed in the case of a positive contribution of the variable “the share of Roman Catholics in municipality” to the regression models, which has been steadily rising since 2006. On the contrary, the share of Roma population in municipality has been influencing the electoral turnout in a negative way. It can be interpreted as a sign of resignation on the opportunity to use elections to achieve collective objectives among the Roma community. However, the share of Roma population in municipality can also be a proxy for some other variables, such as the poverty rate, thanks to ecological fallacy of the regression models. The electoral turnout in the Hungarian-speaking municipalities has changed significantly in the last two parliamentary elections, from regions with significantly above-average turnout to regions with below-average turnout. It can be explained, in part, by a split among political parties representing Hungarian minority in Slovakia, following the mobilization theory. Finally, the high turnout in small municipalities and the significantly positive contribution of the share of seniors to regression models have proved the explanatory power of the habitual voting theory in contemporary Slovakia. The process of transition of voter behavior in Slovakia is geographically uneven, as is witnessed by a greater validity of modernization and socioeconomic status theories in the western regions and the theory of habitual voting and mobilization theory in the eastern regions. The explanation of regional and local differences in electoral participation is becoming more similar to models observed in the West European democracies. However, significant differences remain, which is one of the reasons for close observation of the electoral participation map of Slovakia in a future geographical research.

A theory of strategic voting with non-instrumental motives

Empirical studies have documented non-instrumental motives for voting. However, the theoretical literature on strategic voting has largely ignored these motives. In this paper, we examine voter behavior in multi-candidate elections in the presence of ethical, expressive, and instrumental concerns. Voters in our model derive utility from both the election outcome and the action of voting. A fraction of voters are ethical, who follow a group-welfare maximizing voting rule. The rule may require them to misalign their votes, that is, to vote for a candidate who is not their most preferred. We characterize the optimal rule for the ethical voters and provide comparative statics with respect to various electoral parameters. In particular, we find that the degree of misaligned voting is increasing in the importance of the election but is non-monotonic in the popularity of the Condorcet loser.

The political economy of Vermont’s anti-fracking movement

In 2012, Vermont became the first state in the US to ban hydraulic fracturing for natural gas and oil production despite having zero known natural gas reserves. We evaluate the role of legislator and median voter characteristics on Vermont General Assembly voting outcomes on Act 152, which essentially bans fracking in the state. Using a double-selection post-Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator approach, we find evidence that campaign donations and being a member of the Democratic Party are positively related to voting to ban fracking. Median voter characteristics appear not to play an essential role in shaping legislator voting behaviour, corroborating the theory of expressive voting on the decision to ban fracking in Vermont.