Complex Systems Theory Research Articles

Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme

The Transition Path Theory (TPT) of complex systems has proven to be a robust means to statistically characterize the ensemble of trajectories that connect any two preset flow regions, say 𝒜 and ℬ, directly. More specifically, transition paths are such that they start in 𝒜 and then go to ℬ without detouring back to 𝒜 or ℬ. This way, they make an effective contribution to the transport from 𝒜 to ℬ. Here, we explore its use for building a scheme that enables predicting the evolution of an oil spill in the ocean. This involves appropriately adapting TPT such that it includes a reservoir that pumps oil into a typically open domain. Additionally, we lift up the restriction of the oil not to return to the spill site en route to a region that is targeted to be protected. TPT is applied on oil trajectories available up to the present, e.g., as integrated using velocities produced by a data assimilative system or as inferred from high-frequency radars, to make a prediction of transition oil paths beyond, without relying on forecasted oil trajectories. As a proof of concept, we consider a hypothetical oil spill in the Trion oil field, under development within the Perdido Foldbelt in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. This is done using trajectories integrated from climatological and hindcast surface velocity and winds as well as produced by satellite-tracked surface drifting buoys, in each case discretized into a Markov chain that provides a framework for the TPT-based prediction.

Recent Advances in Control Theory for Complex Systems

Complex systems are characterized by their intricate interdependencies and emergent behavior, posing significant challenges for traditional control theory methodologies. Recent advances in control theory have emerged to address these challenges, enabling the effective control and optimization of complex systems across diverse domains. This abstract highlights key developments in control theory for complex systems, encompassing both theoretical advancements and practical applications.

The Interaction Mechanism and Dynamic Evolution of Digital Green Innovation in the Integrated Green Building Supply Chain

Although building enterprises are actively developing towards the direction of an integrated building supply chain (IBSC), they still face many difficulties in digital green innovation (DGI) activities. The purpose of this study is to reveal the interaction mechanism between the digital integration degree, green knowledge collaboration ability, and the DGI performance of IBSC enterprises in DGI activities under the influence of environmental characteristics of the integrated supply chain. In this study, firstly, a hierarchical regression method and a structural equation model are used to empirically study the static mechanism of DGI among enterprises in the IBSC. Secondly, this study adopts a complex system theory to construct a logistic dynamic analysis model to explore a dynamic evolution mechanism. The results of the study are as follows. (i) The digital integration degree and green knowledge synergy ability of the IBSC are conducive to improvements in digital green innovation performance among the enterprises involved in this chain. The digital integration degree of this chain is the dominant factor affecting the performance of digital green innovation among these enterprises. (ii) The digital network capability of this chain has a significant impact on its digital integration degree but has no significant effect on green knowledge synergy ability. The quality of digital relationships in the IBSC affects both the digital integration degree and green knowledge synergy ability. It has a higher impact on the digital integration degree than on the synergy ability of green knowledge. The resilience of the IBSC can effectively promote the improvement of digital integration and green knowledge synergy ability, but has no significant effect on digital green innovation performance. (iii) In the early stage of an IBSC, the effect of the digital integration degree on DGI performance is more obvious. Over the long term, under the effect of different digital relationship qualities of the IBSC, green knowledge collaboration ability plays a pivotal role. Improving this ability is conducive to the continuous improvement of DGI performance.

Generating inclusive services for children, youth and families: A shift to using complex systems theory

AbstractService systems for children and families have been shaped by standard approaches to knowledge‐building, which reflect a reductionist approach and assume linearity and/or that individuals and experiences are normally distributed. Yet, these approaches may be inadequate for clients most at‐risk, especially those who would be analytic ‘outliers’. A complexity lens focuses on the whole system and seeks to identify patterns, including the dynamic interactions between components of the system. Social work scholars have begun to apply complexity theory to social work research efforts, demonstrating the conceptual potential of incorporating this theoretical approach into social work theories and models such as the person‐in‐environment framework and the ecosystems perspective. Yet, frameworks informed by complexity theory may require ontological and epistemological shifts in thinking and new methodological approaches in order to fully embody a complexity approach. Complexity theory offers the opportunity to consider social work clients who are most at‐risk, as it is better suited for power law distributions. We can, therefore, reconceptualize the most ‘at‐risk’ clients as being in a state of transition, which is also the space of most creativity and possibility.

An introduction to retrodictive qualitative modeling as an emerging method on affective variables in SLA research.

Investigating second language acquisition (SLA) via a complex dynamic systems theory (CDST) involves much intuition, and operationalizing the dynamic constructs is hard in research terms. In the present study, we contend that the commonly used quantitative data analysis methods such as correlational works or structural equation modeling fail to examine variables as part of a system or network. They are mostly based on linear rather than non-linear associations. Considering the major challenges of dynamic systems research in SLA, we recommend that innovative analytical models such as retrodictive qualitative modeling (RQM) be used more. RQM manages to reverse the usual direction of research by actually beginning from the end. More especially from certain outcomes and then moves backward to find why specific elements of the system led to one outcome rather than the others. The analytical procedures of RQM will be elaborated on and also exemplified in the SLA research, more specifically for investigating language learners' affective variables. The limited body of research using RQM in the SLA domain is also reviewed followed by some conclusive remarks and suggestions for further research into the variables of interest.

The Laws of Nature and the Problems of Modern Cosmology

The notion that nature is subject to laws is exciting from many different viewpoints. This paper is based on the context of modern cosmology. It will list the significant interdisciplinary implications generated by various aspects of the contemporary scientific discussion about the status of laws of nature, especially their dynamic nature. Recent work highlights how multiple aspects of the observed universe still lack explanation and that several problems of standard cosmology still form the object of debate. Considering these issues, several proposals have been made that entail a revision of the concept of the law of nature, according to which the nature of time and of the relation between causality and natural laws ought to be reconsidered using approaches or viewpoints which point to philosophical issues. We argue that Tim Maudlin’s concept of Fundamental Law of Temporal Evolution (FLOTE) and Nancy Cartwright’s notion of the nomological machine provide new insights and valuable tools that can be used in the analysis of the status of laws in the context of cosmology and of complex systems theory. The limits of the traditional approach to laws of nature and their mathematical formulation are highlighted in this context, as well as the fact that many of the ultimate properties of nature may turn out to be formally unpredictable or uncomputable.

Exploring the state of research on motivation in second language learning: a review and a reliability generalization meta-analysis

Abstract We present a thematic review and analysis of the variables affecting language learning motivation (LLM) (2008–2022). The second-language motivational self-system (L2MSS) model was found to be the most applied construct in measuring LLM. Complex systems theory was also another method gaining prominence in LLM research to explain the interactions between micro- and macro-structures surrounding the learner in influencing motivation. Other factors such as socioeconomic status, dialogism and anagnorisis were also identified as variables relating to LLM. For instance, research on dialogism and dialogue has indicated the role of conversation in shaping identity, motivation, and meaning for learners. However, our review found that much of the focus in LLM research has been on the L2MSS learning or teaching experience, while daily living has been largely neglected. We further conducted a reliability generalization meta-analysis. Our analysis found an average reliability of 0.84 (CI = 0.816–0.856), with 34% of reliability coefficients falling below the lower bound of CI. A meta-regression analysis revealed that 16% of the variance in the reliability coefficients was predicted by the number of items in the instruments. Questionnaires with an internal consistency below the lower bound of 0.816 had an average of 4.14 items, while the rest had an average of 5.71 items. We further found significant publication bias. Based on our findings, we suggest areas for future research in LLM.

Attractor States in Second Language Development

Identifying changing patterns of stability and variability is crucial when examining second language development (SLD) from a complex dynamic systems theory (CDST) perspective (Larsen-Freeman, 2020). By studying attractor states, or recurrent patterns of stability, light can be shed on the underlying dynamics of a complex dynamic system (van Geert & Verspoor, 2015). In the context of SLD, attractor states can be observed in individuals’ linguistic behaviors, as well as learners’ interactions with others (Hiver, 2014; van Geert & Verspoor, 2015). As such, attractor states have been cited in recent SLD literature (e.g., Amerstorfer, 2020; Evans & Larsen-Freeman, 2020; Syed et al., 2021; Gillies & Roger, 2022). The conceptual unpacking of attractor states can therefore be invaluable for SLD scholars seeking to enter the realm of CDST. Accordingly, serving as a stepping stone for those looking to foray into the CDST paradigm, this forum piece offers a definition of attractor state, identifies and describes different types of attractor states, clarifies some possible misconceptions about attractor states, and provides a few examples of attractor states in SLD.

Promoting value emergence through digital platform ecosystems: Perspectives on resource integration in China

Although value co-creation of user-enterprise platforms has been investigated in recent decades, only a few empirical efforts have been made to explore the value emergence of digital platform ecosystems from the perspectives of the enterprise, supplier, government, and user interactions, specifically concerning the complexity and emergence of interactions arising out the integration of micro-, meso-, and macro-level resources in China. To address this research gap, this study examines the relationship between user whole-process engagement, value emergence, resource integration, and firm performance from the perspective of resource integration combined with complex systems theory. A questionnaire survey of 377 digital enterprises in different industries in China was conducted; subsequently, the theoretical model was tested by using empirical and experimental methods. The empirical results showed that the emergence of efficiency and integrated value played a mediating role in the relationship between user whole-process engagement and firm performance. Resource integration positively moderated the relationship between user whole-process engagement and value emergence. Simultaneously, value emergence promoted the improvement of multidimensional performance of enterprise platforms, and its impact on a firm's social performance was greater as compared to that on the firm's economic performance. Thus, the research has interesting implications for theory, enterprises, and government.

Enabling health potential: exploring nonlinear and complex results of osteopathic manual medicine through complex systems theory.

Osteopathic medicine is a holistic, patient-specific approach. Explaining the impact of osteopathic manipulative medicine (OMM) has been problematic because many of its effects are nonlinear. Complex systems theory (CST) is explored as a mechanism of understanding the interplay of the body's anatomy and physiology, an illness process, and the effects of OMM. Tensegrity is discussed as an example of an emergent property of the body's systems that affects notonly biomechanics but also pathophysiology. Previous explanations of osteopathic philosophy are reviewed. The Host+Disease=Illness paradigm is a way to think through the impact of host and disease factors on an illness state, and how targeted interventions may affect the illness. The Osteopathic 5 Models are another way to view the body's complexity. The area of greatest restriction (AGR) screen can be understood to direct OMM in a way that respects complexity and enables asymmetric and nonlocal results torealize health potential. The impact of this framework isin coherently explaining the impact of osteopathic philosophy and OMM and exploring new approaches to research.

Analysis of the coupling coordination degree of the Society-Economy-Resource-Environment system in urban areas: Case study of the Jingjinji urban agglomeration, China

The fast growth of China's economy and society has brought severe consequences on the country’s environmental quality and natural resources. In order to overcome these obstacles, the Chinese government proposed the concept of high-quality development in 2017, aiming to promote the comprehensive, sustainable and balanced development of society, economy, resources and the environment. Exploring the interactions within the Social-Economic-Resource-Environment (SERE) system in urban agglomeration regions can help policy-makers achieve high-quality sustainable urban development. On account of the concept of high-quality development and the theory of complex systems, we constructed the SERE system. Taking the Jingjinji (JJJ) urban agglomeration from 2011 to 2019 as a research sample, we first evaluated the comprehensive quality of the SERE subsystems at two scale levels using the entropy method. Then, the level of coordinated development among the subsystems was studied by building a coupling coordination degree (CCD)model. Finally, the effect of the four subsystems on the CCD was analyzed by using a panel regression model. The results of the study found that first, the SERE system’s comprehensive development quality at the scale of the whole JJJ urban agglomeration showed an upward trend from 2011 to 2019. The resource subsystem always contributed the most, the economic and social subsystem contributed moderately, and the environmental subsystem contributed the least. Secondly, the comprehensive quality of all cities’ SERE subsystems showed different degrees of growth, with notable spatial differences. The comprehensive quality levels of social, economic and resource subsystems in Beijing and Tianjin were significantly higher than those in Hebei. Thirdly, the SERE system’s CCD in each city showed various growth tendencies. The proportion of severely unbalanced cities decreased from 84.62% to 61.54% during the study period, and regional development became more coordinated. However, there were still obvious spatial differences; Beijing and Tianjin consistently performed better, and the scores of cities in Hebei province were generally low. Fourthly, the degree of coupling coordination among the subsystems was positively correlated with their comprehensive quality. The elasticity of the environmental subsystem was the largest, which was essential to the coordinated development of the SERE system. These findings can offer governments valuable references for adopting appropriate policy measures which promote high-quality, sustainable and coordinated urban development.

Decision model of mine shaft development mode based on ISM-GAHP-FCA

Mineshaft development mode design and decision-making is a complex system theory problem with significant implications for the mine’s investment cost, operational safety, and production efficiency. Because of the many factors that influence mine shaft development mode decision-making, various decision-makers have different worries and inclinations, resulting in greater subjectivity and uncertainty in the decision-making process. The concept of a specialty chain was born out of a belief in group decision-making. By merging and assessing the decision-making information of different groups in the same specialty chain, a systematic decision-making index database of the mine shaft development model was created. To elucidate the correlation model and hierarchical link between the decision-making indexes, the Interpretative Structure Model (ISM) was applied. The multilevel decision-making index system of mine shaft development mode was established. The decision-making group structure was optimized. The relative importance of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was modified to determine the scale. A collaborative weight determination method of multiple decision-making groups was established to reduce the influence of individual subjective consciousness on decision-making results. The ISM-GAHP-FCA decision-making model of mine shaft development mode was built in conjunction with Fuzzy Comprehensive Analysis (FCA) to increase fuzzy decision-making information’s integration and analysis ability. The decision-making outcomes from the analysis of 10 typical mine shaft types in China are adaptable to the actual situation. The model can effectively express the hierarchy, significance, and fuzziness of mine shaft development mode decision-making indexes and limit the interference of decision-maker subjectivity on decision-making results.

Restructuring moratoriums through an information-processing lens

ABSTRACT Using insights from complex systems theory, it is argued that financially distressed large corporates will seek the protection of a moratorium when the benefits it brings outweigh its signalling and information-processing problems – likely to be in the later stages of distress. Applying this insight, the article offers a somewhat gloomy assessment of the Part A1 moratorium introduced in the UK by the Corporate Insolvency and Governance Act 2020. It is suggested that the UK administration moratorium may be more fit for purpose, but that serious signalling and information processing concerns remain. After touching on possible adaptations of the tools, the article concedes that there may have been a deliberate decision to restrict the usefulness of both of them. The article ends by arguing that if this the case, the decision may not be sustainable in a rapidly changing economic environment, and that recent suggestions for reform should be supported.

Nonlinear mathematical model of an economic soliton

In modern conditions of economic transformation, the functioning and development of production systems is characterized by instability, nonlinearity and dynamism of the main indicators and parameters. The financial and production system is affected by a large number of market, inflationary, social and other disturbances, which leads to the losses in financial stability, a decrease in production volumes, a decrease in demand for manufactured products, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to have an effective management system and operational decision-making. The relevant direction for solving this problem is the development of a flexible intelligent control system that makes it possible to diagnose quickly the unfavorable state of the financial and production system and activate promptly the mechanisms that return the system to equilibrium. In this case, information becomes the main resource of management, which performs an integrating role and is a necessary component when using all other resources. All this predetermines the use of information technology management. With a high dynamism and instability of the external environment, it becomes necessary to apply the methods and approaches of the new science of management, concentrating its attention on the theory of complex systems and nonlinear dynamics, with the help of which complex control systems can cope effectively with uncertainty and rapid changes. The development and use of modern information technologies for enterprise management are based on the introduction of integrated information processing technology and the creation of mathematical methods and computer modeling tools. In the work of information technologies, management is implemented by creating an integrated intelligent computerized system based on the use of economic and mathematical methods, computer technology and communication means, i.e. implements a fundamentally new management platform, which is based on the integration of management information through a mechanism for generalizing the information database and knowledge.

The exact solutions of the fractional-stochastic Fokas-Lenells equation in optical fiber communication

<abstract><p>The fractional-stochastic Fokas-Lenells equation (FSFLE) in the Stratonovich sense is taken into account here. The modified mapping method is used to generate new trigonometric, hyperbolic, elliptic and rational stochastic fractional solutions. Because the Fokas-Lenells equation has many implementations in telecommunication modes, complex system theory, quantum field theory, and quantum mechanics, the obtained solutions can be employed to describe a wide range of exciting physical phenomena. We plot several 2D and 3D diagrams to demonstrate how multiplicative noise and fractional derivatives affect the analytical solutions of the FSFLE. Also, we show how multiplicative noise at zero stabilizes FSFLE solutions.</p></abstract>

What is learning? A complex conceptual systems analysis of conceptualizations of learning

Beliefs about the nature of learning have implications for learner agency, empowerment, and justice. Conceptualizations held by learning scientists and STEM professors were analyzed as complex conceptual systems and were found to be different for each group. A Transfer-Acquisition conceptualization of learning was dominant in the STEM professor group, and a Construction-Becoming conceptualization was dominant in the learning scientists group. The practices emergent in the Transfer-Acquisition conceptualization were found to be inconsistent with critical pedagogy. The insights in this study not only support claims in the literature that conceptualizations of learning impact practices in teaching and learning, but also suggest that complex systems theories and methodologies may be a fruitful new approach to understanding the relationships between conceptualizations and practices.

Spanish economy through the prism of complex systems theory. Experience of conceptual modeling

The crisis shocks of recent decades (first of all, the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the coronacrisis of 2020) created a spiral of restraining Spain's economic growth, exacerbated internal socio-political contradictions and weakened Madrid's international position. It was the "ragged" rhythm of economic development that emphasized the relevance of the task of "rebooting" the economic policy of the Spanish state, adopting a new growth model. The formation of such a model, which responds to modern geo-economic challenges, has taken a dominant place in the agenda of the current Spanish government, focused on reforming the economy in order to modernize it and adapt it to rapidly changing national, European and global realities. The main problem is that it is necessary to reform a complex and contradictory system, which is the modern Spanish economy. In practice, this means simultaneously solving a wide variety of problems and requires taking into account a wide range of heterogeneous factors interacting with each other and with the external environment. The task is complicated by the fact that the reform process is taking place in an atmosphere of acute internal political struggle, intensifying in connection with the general elections scheduled for 2023.

AMESH

Beginning in about 1990 and continuing into the present, an international network of researchers has developed and tested a methodology for integrating complex systems theories into sustainable development projects. Drawing on a theoretical understanding of complex systems and combining it with Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology and best practices of community engagement drawn from a wide variety of sources, we have developed a methodology that is theoretically sound and practically effective. AMESH, an Adaptive Methodology for Ecosystem Sustainability and Health, has emerged from, and been tested in, Nepal, Kenya, Canada, and Peru.

현대건축에서 인간과 자연의 공존을 위한 복잡계 특성에 관한 연구

In the 21st century, the industrial society based on materials and capital has changed into a dynamic digital society based on knowledge and information. The principles of various phenomena are also evolving into a new paradigm that includes variability and non-foreseenness.
 Complexity science was formed in the second half of the 20th century as a new trend of looking at the complexity of these various areas as a frame.
 Based on the complexity theory presented since the 1980s, this study tries to grasp the trends and characteristics of modern architecture from the perspective of social phenomena and examine the three methods recently applied to the works of architect Fujimoto Sou. First, we will understand the characteristics of new trends in the complexity theory and modern architecture, secondly, we will understand the characteristics of the complexity from Fujimoto's architecture concept and method, and thirdly, we will explore the diversity of approaches in complex architecture by comparing design concepts of modern architect and techniques with Fujimoto’s approach.
 Fujimoto emphasized coolness in his architectural ideas and focused on natural motifs as a design concept. Furthermore, while implementing this principle spatially, Fujimoto focused on experience and evolution, which is interaction with humans, and explored primitive future architecture oriented toward new architecture as the main principle of complex system theory. This is a paradox of existing architecture, and the architect tried to express uncertainty, nonlinearity, and non-measurability that did not exist in the existing architectural composition. Therefore, new human-centered architecture will need to continue to seek ways to approach new architecture for humans by enhancing a fundamental understanding of nature, namely primitive future architecture in Fujimoto's terminology, by increasing understanding of complex system theory focusing on natural order.

Lotmanian Perspective on Complexity in Cultural Systems

This article sets out to discuss the potential of Juri Lotman’s semiotic theory to serve as a ground from where a new understanding of cultural complexity could emerge. While the connection between Lotman and complex systems theory is quite well established, what is yet to be clarified is the ways in which his approach differs from the universally accepted understandings of complex dynamics, i.e., what makes Lotman’s perspective on complexity unique? The article also explores the possibility of developing Lotman’s ideas further in the context of the contemporary paradigm of complex thought with the aim of clarifying the specifics of complexity in cultural systems. In order to fill these aims, the article will first compare Juri Lotman’s ideas with a generally recognized understanding of complexity to delineate a common ground. Then, the paper will address the issue of how studying complexity differs in physical systems and cultural systems, focusing on how this matter has been discussed in semiotics. The final part of the article will propose some initial lines of thoughts regarding how Lotman’s ideas could be advanced further to grasp the phenomenon of complexity in culture.