Causal Theory Research Articles

Analyzing the association of policy narratives with problem tractability in the implementation of EU decisions: Evidence from the phytosanitary policy area

AbstractThe Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) suggests that narratives can be employed to define and contest policy problems. Yet, few NPF studies have explicitly addressed the narrative portrayal of problem intractability. What role do narratives play in a situation of uncertainty about the causes and solutions of the problem, when strong divergences regarding the values and interests of the policy actors exist? The article anchors the NPF to the literatures on problem definition and implementation to advance two propositions about (a) how differences in the use of narrative elements can be suggestive of the degree of problem (in‐)tractability; and (b) whether other elements of tractability, namely the presence of a valid causal theory, are associated with the usage of narrative strategies. I test the propositions by analyzing media commentaries surrounding the implementation of European decisions to tackle a tree‐killing epidemic in Italy. The findings suggest that narratives can helpfully illustrate the intractability inherent in the policy debate. However, narratives can also develop independently of factors that the implementation literature understands as conducive to lowering intractability, namely knowledge accumulation. The NPF may represent a promising alternative to understand policy implementation processes.

Conditional causal decision theory reduces to evidential decision theory

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The Klinefelter Syndrome and Testicular Sperm Retrieval Outcomes

Klinefelter syndrome (KS), caused by the presence of an extra X chromosome, is the most prevalent chromosomal sexual anomaly, with an estimated incidence of 1:500/1000 per male live birth (karyotype 47,XXY). High stature, tiny testicles, small penis, gynecomastia, feminine body proportions and hair, visceral obesity, and testicular failure are all symptoms of KS. Endocrine (osteoporosis, obesity, diabetes), musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, autoimmune disorders, cancer, neurocognitive disabilities, and infertility are also outcomes of KS. Causal theories are discussed in addition to hormonal characteristics and testicular histology. The retrieval of spermatozoa from the testicles for subsequent use in assisted reproduction treatments is discussed in the final sections. Despite testicular atrophy, reproductive treatments allow excellent results, with rates of 40-60% of spermatozoa recovery, 60% of clinical pregnancy, and 50% of newborns. This is followed by a review on the predictive factors for successful sperm retrieval. The risks of passing on the genetic defect to children are also discussed. Although the risk is low (0.63%) when compared to the general population (0.5-1%), patients should be informed about embryo selection through pre-implantation genetic testing (avoids clinical termination of pregnancy). Finally, readers are directed to a number of reviews where they can enhance their understanding of comprehensive diagnosis, clinical care, and fertility preservation.

Systematic Theory Mapping: Deciphering Causal Complexity of Brand Externalities

This paper presents Systematic Theory Mapping (STM), a comprehensive and systematic method, as the first step toward defining and dealing with complex and wicked problems. Social systems exhibit a messy, multifaceted, and multi-level composite of problems characterized by causal complexities and non-linear interactions of numerous contributing variables. Exploring such a wicked composite of problems for causal explanations and theory building through reductionist empiricism is unrealistic, expensive, and futile. Systems thinking is required to understand the configurations driving wicked problems and navigate their causal complexities. We construed brand externalities as a wicked problem and provided an illustrative example for STM. A systematic narrative review is used to amalgamate diverse stakeholder perspectives and capture the structures and processes that generate brand externalities. System dynamics, employing a causal loop diagram, is used to organize the findings and develop a causal theory of brand externalities. The proposed method can help scholars, managers, and policymakers better define complex managerial and social problems and identify the likely consequences of their actions.

Boolean Difference-Making: A Modern Regularity Theory of Causation

Abstract A regularity theory of causation analyses type-level causation in terms of Boolean difference-making. The essential ingredient that helps this theoretical framework overcome the problems of Hume’s and Mill’s classical accounts is a principle of non-redundancy: only Boolean dependency structures from which no elements can be eliminated track causation. The first part of this paper argues that the recent regularity theoretic literature has not consistently implemented this principle, for it disregarded an important type of redundancies: structural redundancies. Moreover, it is shown that a regularity theory needs to be underwritten by a hitherto neglected metaphysical background assumption stipulating that the world's causal makeup is not ambiguous. Against that background, the second part then develops a new regularity theory that does justice to all types of redundancies and, thereby, provides the first all-inclusive notion of Boolean difference-making.

Reframing the clouded scientific spectacles of the Flynn effect: A view through two lenses

Flynn argued that the Flynn effect was due to an increasing use of “scientific spectacles” among the general population (Flynn, 2010), yet the Flynn effect itself has been viewed through clouded scientific spectacles. Most research has focused on Flynn's main finding: IQ scores have increased over time. Flynn (1987) presumed the effect was a cohort (generational) effect, yet a variety of within- and between-person processes could give rise to the observed secular changes. Many theories have been put forth as to the fundamental cause of the Flynn effect. Frequently ignored is what a specific cause implies the Flynn effect would look like at different levels of analysis and in the context of different research designs. In this paper we present two ‘lenses’ with which to view a potential causal model of the Flynn effect, in the hopes of closing some of the current gaps emerging from past research. First, we propose an examination of within- versus between-person processes. Relatedly, we propose that the exclusive focus on normed measures of intelligence has hampered understanding of what functional form the Flynn effect might take, particularly during development. Consideration of “raw” intelligence is likely to be fruitful. For our second lens, we consider the framework of age-period-cohort modeling to categorize what kind of effect a given model implies. We examine several causal theories of the Flynn effect through these lenses. Viewed through our lenses, we find that certain causal theories are, perhaps, somewhat incomplete in their specification of all the relevant processes.

Causal theories of spacetime

AbstractWe develop a new version of the causal theory of spacetime. Whereas traditional versions of the theory seek to identify spatiotemporal relations with causal relations, the version we develop takes causal relations to be the grounds for spatiotemporal relations. Causation is thus distinct from, and more basic than, spacetime. We argue that this non‐identity theory, suitably developed, avoids the challenges facing the traditional identity theory.

Almog was Right, Kripke’s Causal Theory is Trivial

Almog was Right, Kripke’s Causal Theory is Trivial

A content-aware corpus-based model for analysis of marine accidents

In the past decades, marine accidents brought the serious loss of life and property and environmental contamination. With the accumulation of marine accident data, especially accident investigation reports, compared with subjective reasoning based on expert experience, data-driven methods for analysis and accident prevention are more comprehensive and objective. This paper aims to develop a content-aware corpus-based model for the analysis of marine accidents to mine the accident semantic features. The general research framework is established to combine accident data, expert prior knowledge, and semi-automated natural language processing (NLP) technology. The NLP models are optimized, fused, and applied to the case study of ship collision accidents. The results show that the proposed model can accurately and quickly extract hazards, accident causes, and scenarios from the accident reports, and perform semantic analysis for the latent relationships between them to extend the accident causation theory. This study can provide a powerful and innovative analysis tool for marine accidents for maritime traffic safety management departments and relevant research institutions.

Inference of Factors for Labor Productivity Growth Used Randomized Experiment and Statistical Causality

The study of causal dependencies in economics is fraught with great difficulties, that it is required to consider not only the object structure, but also take into account a huge number of factors acting on the object, about which nothing is either known or difficult to measure. In this paper, we attempt to overcome this problem and apply the theory of statistical causality for labor productivity management. We suggest new technology that provides the inference of causal relations between the special programs implemented in the company’s and employee’s labor productivity. The novelty of the proposed technology is that it is based on a hybrid object model, combines two models: 1—the structural object model about its functioning and development to provide a causal inference and prediction the effect of explicit factors; 2—the model based on observed data to clarify causality and to test it empirically. The technology provides integration of the theory of causal Bayesian networks, methods of randomized controlled experiments and statistical methods, allows under nonlinearity, dynamism, stochasticity and non-stationarity of the initial data, to evaluate the effect of programs on the labor effeciency. The difference between the proposed technology and others is that it ensures determination the synergistic effect of the action of the cause (program) on the effect—labor productivity in condition of hidden factors. The practical significance of the research is the results of its testing the proposed theoretical provisions, methods and technologies on actual data about food service company. The results obtained could contribute to the labor productivity growth over uncertainty of the external and internal factors and provide the companies sustainable development and its profitability growth.

Hopf monoids, permutohedral cones, and generalized retarded functions

The commutative Hopf monoid of set compositions is a fundamental Hopf monoid internal to vector species, having undecorated bosonic Fock space the combinatorial Hopf algebra of quasisymmetric functions. We construct a geometric realization of this Hopf monoid over the adjoint of the (essentialized) braid hyperplane arrangement, which identifies the monomial basis with signed characteristic functions of the interiors of permutohedral tangent cones. We show that the indecomposable quotient Lie coalgebra is obtained by restricting functions to chambers of the adjoint arrangement, i.e., by quotienting out the higher codimensions. The resulting functions are characterized by the Steinmann relations of axiomatic quantum field theory, demonstrating an equivalence between the Steinmann relations, tangent cones to (generalized) permutohedra, and having algebraic structure internal to species. Our results give a new interpretation of a construction appearing in the mathematically rigorous formulation of renormalization by Epstein–Glaser, called causal perturbation theory. In particular, we show that operator products of time-ordered products correspond to the H-basis of the cocommutative Hopf monoid of set compositions, and generalized retarded products correspond to a spanning set of its primitive part Lie algebra.

Causal shadow and non-local modular flow: from degeneracy to perturbative genesis by correlation

Causal shadows are bulk space-time regions between the entanglement wedges and the causal wedges, their existence encodes deep aspects of the entanglement wedge reconstruction in the context of subregion duality in AdS/CFT. In this paper, we study the perturbation theory of the causal shadows and their relation to the properties of the associated modular flows. We first revisit the cases of degenerate causal shadows based on known examples, and discuss the origin for their degeneracy via the local nature of the modular flow. We then focus on the perturbative case in which the CFT subregion consists of two spheres separated by a large distance L ≫ R1,2. The RT surfaces still agree with the causal horizons, giving a degenerate causal shadow classically. We compute the corrections to the quantum extremal surfaces (Q.E.S) from the bulk mutual information, which then give rise to a non-degenerate causal shadow at order GN. We end by discussing the causal shadow perturbation theory more generally, in particular we explore the possibility of extracting the positivity conditions characterizing perturbative causal shadows in the boundary CFTs.

Combining realist evaluation and transformative evaluation to advance research in palliative care: The case of end of life companionship

Background: Palliative care requires innovative methods to understand what works, for whom, in what circumstances and why. Realist evaluation has become one prominent approach due to its preoccupation with building, and testing, causal theories to explain the influence of contextual factors on outcomes. Undertaking realist evaluation is not without challenges and may amplify issues of underrepresentation, disempower those working in palliative care, and produce results with poor ecological validity. Complementary approaches are needed which mitigate these challenges, whilst producing credible findings that advances knowledge. Purpose: In this article it is outlined how realist evaluation provides a toolkit to advance research to explain, and empirically test, the complex contours of palliative care. Moreover, it is proposed that transformative evaluation can provide a catalyst to engage and empower those within palliative care, create the opportunity for care transformation, and produce more informed and authentic theories. Discussion: Contemporary issues in palliative care pertain to the complexity of palliative care, the insufficiency of experimental designs alone, and the challenges of achieving inclusive research participation. In this article it is argued that theory led, participatory, opportunistic and naturalistic approaches can provide an antidote to the issues in the literature. The combination also mitigates many methodological critiques of the individual approaches, by increasing the transformative potential of realist evaluation, and explanatory potential of transformative evaluation.

New Diseases, Newer Categories: Ayurveda’s Engagement with Epidemics in Travancore

The advent of Western modernity in India, as a by-product of British colonialism, brought about considerable strain within Indian medical traditions. Indigenous medical traditions which were operating within the broad humoral theory of disease causation came to be subjected to the logic of biomedicine. By the late nineteenth century, as the British in India consolidated their state systems and the princely states modelled their administrative structures in accordance with the British state, there was an increased acceptance of biomedical standards against indigenous medical norms. This was further accentuated by the fear of epidemics, which suggested that diseases spread from person to person and could affect large geographic areas bringing death and suffering in its wake. Disease control and management had, therefore, become a major concern for both the state systems in the British presidencies and in the princely states. The prevalence of contagious diseases offered a challenge to reorganize the public health systems of the states, yet they also provided an opportunity to legitimize state sovereignty over the bodies of its subjects. Diseases that were previously seen as localized and situated within culturally specific locales were now increasingly subjected to the governing mechanisms of the state. This paper examines how the medical bureaucratization of Travancore, in the south-western part of the Indian subcontinent, affected local healthcare traditions in the face of expanding fear of epidemics, ultimately led to the reshaping of indigenous medical systems.

A Framework for Resilient City Governance in Response to Sudden Weather Disasters: A Perspective Based on Accident Causation Theories

With climate change, urban resilience is becoming a critical concept for helping cities withstand disasters and accidents. However, current research often focuses on concept identification, leaving a gap between concept and implementation. This study aims to investigate the lack of urban resilience in the face of sudden weather disasters, with a focus on the inadequate capacity of urban systems to effectively govern such events. The Zhengzhou subway flooding accident on 20 July 2021, serves as a case study for this research, and the accident causation theories, such as the Swiss cheese model, Surry’s accident model, and trajectory intersection theory are used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the accident’s causes. Through this analysis, the paper identifies vulnerabilities in the natural, technical, and man-made systems of the urban system, and reveals deficiencies in four aspects of urban resilience: natural, technological, institutional, and organizational. Based on this analysis, the study proposes a resilient city governance framework that integrates the “Natural-Technical-Man-made” systems, offers relevant recommendations for urban resilience governance, and discusses potential challenges to urban resilience implementation.

Aptness and means-end coherence: a dominance argument for causal decision theory

Why should we be means-end rational? Why care whether someone’s mental states exhibit certain formal patterns, like the ones formalized in causal decision theory? This paper establishes a dominance argument for these constraints in a finite setting. If you violate the norms of causal decision theory, then your desires will be aptness dominated. That is, there will be some alternative set of desires that you could have had, which would be more apt (closer to the actual values fixed by your sensibility/ what you intrinsically care about) no matter which world is actual. If we care about having apt desires, then, we should never let ourselves violate these norms of means-end rationality. This argument shares a form with now-standard accuracy arguments for probabilism, opening up a new terrain for that discussion. I show that the foundational assumptions about the shape of accuracy and of aptness required to run the arguments for means-end rationality and for probabilism run closely parallel. I show the argument is robust under different theories of subjective actual value, including nonclassical treatments of indeterminacy in actual value; I show the argument may (but need not!) be generalized to objective theories of value. The upshot is that aptness-domination arguments for decision theories should be added to the philosophical playbook.

Impact of blue economy sectors using causality, correlation and panel data models

IntroductionBlue economics research is a research field that is achieving more and more interest among international scientists. This study adds more knowledge as it aims to investigate the causal relationships between blue economic factors – living and non-living resources, ocean energy, port activities, shipbuilding and repair, maritime transport, coastal tourism, human development indicator, per capita income, fish capture, internal renewable water resources per capita, marine protected areas, greenhouse gas emissions and population density, all factors related to maritime activities – and the blue economy (BE) itself.MethodsIn order to reach these objectives, some special analytical and econometric methods are used. Among them the multivariate Granger causality theory, the correlation analysis and panel data techniques are employed. This set of methods helps us to study the complex set of relationships among the various factors related to the BE and their influence on per capita income (PCI) and economic growth. The data used to conduct this research were collected from the Eurostat, the E.U. statistical database. Several European countries and the span period 2010-2018 are used too.ResultsThe analysis showed evidence that per capita income is associated to other factors of the blue economy, that PCI (Granger) causes coastal tourism and population density, and that there are five other factors that positively influence PCI growth, namely, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), maritime transport, nonliving resources and ports’ activities. This paper adds some new understandings to theory and calls the attention to society, in general, and the blue economics, in particular. For instance, if policymakers want to increase income per capita of these regions, they should take action on some variables such as human development indicator (HDI), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, living resources, maritime transport and ocean energy. The results reveal that blue economy is a good alternative to promote both economic growth and PCI.DiscussionThe concerns that make up the blue economy, such as ocean energy, port activities, ship building and repair, maritime transport, coastal tourism, HDI, maritime fish capture, marine protected areas, and GHG reductionare good factors to stimulate economic growth. Among these, the most influencing are maritime transport, living resources and the production of ocean energy. This study adds knowledge to theory, innovates in the methods and techniques used, in the results discovered, in its discussion, and in the mixture of blue economic factors, too. As far as we know, it is one of the first papers that fills this gap in the literature regarding the more and more important blue economy.

The Timing Problem for Dualist Accounts of Mental Causation

Setting aside all exclusion-style worries about the redundancy of postulating additional, non-physical mental causes for effects that can already be explained in purely physical terms, dualists who treat mental properties as supervening on physical properties still face a further problem: in cases of mental-to-mental causation, they cannot avoid positing an implausibly coincidental coordination in the timing of the distinct causal processes terminating, respectively, in the mental effect and its physical base. I argue that this problem arises regardless of whether one treats the mental cause as causing both the mental effect and its physical base, or whether one treats the latter as having instead been caused by some physical state, and that the problem also does not depend on which theory of causation one adopts. A third option of treating the mental cause and its physical base as producing the mental effect and its physical base by a single causal process that they both contribute to is found to come up short as well.

Bhāviveka and Avalokitavrata on the Two So-Called Non-cause Theories (ahetuvāda) of the Lokāyatikas

Abstract The article discusses Bhāviveka’s Prajñāpradīpavṛtti and Avalokitavrata’s Prajñāpradīpaṭīkā commentaries on the “not without a cause” (nāpy ahetutaḥ) alternative of Nāgārjuna’s Mūlamadhyamakakārikā 1.1ab, from which it emerges that at least two distinct theories of causality can be attributed to the Lokāyata school. The first one is a physicalist theory that confines all causal relations within the sphere of material elements and is assimilated to accidentalism. The second one is a naturalist theory that attributes causal power to inner nature (svabhāva). The paper discusses the theoretical differences between these two approaches, considers Bhāviveka’s and Avalokitavrata’s counter-arguments and concludes that some of the conjectures that modern scholars have put forward on the relation between svabhāvavāda, accidentalism and Lokāyata should be revised.

Making the invisible visible: Using a qualitative system dynamics model to map disparities in cumulative environmental stressors and children's neurodevelopment

BackgroundThe combined effects of multiple environmental toxicants and social stressor exposures are widely recognized as important public health problems, likely contributing to health inequities. However, US policy makers at state and federal levels typically focus on one stressor exposure at a time and have failed to develop comprehensive strategies to reduce multiple co-occurring exposures, mitigate cumulative risks and prevent harm. This research aimed to move from considering disparate environmental stressors in isolation to mapping the links between environmental, economic, social and health outcomes as a dynamic complex system using children's exposure to neurodevelopmental toxicants as an illustrative example. Such a model can be used to support a broad range of child developmental and environmental health policy stakeholders in improving their understanding of cumulative effects of multiple chemical, physical, biological and social environmental stressors as a complex system through a collaborative learning process. MethodsWe used system dynamics (SD) group model building to develop a qualitative causal theory linking multiple interacting streams of social stressors and environmental neurotoxicants impacting children's neurodevelopment. A 2 1/2-day interactive system dynamics workshop involving experts across multiple disciplines was convened to develop the model followed by qualitative survey on system insights. ResultsThe SD causal map covered seven interconnected themes: environmental exposures, social environment, health status, education, employment, housing and advocacy. Potential high leverage intervention points for reducing disparities in children's cumulative neurotoxicant exposures and effects were identified. Workshop participants developed deeper level of understanding about the complexity of cumulative environmental health risks, increased their agreement about underlying causes, and enhanced their capabilities for integrating diverse forms of knowledge about the complex multi-level problem of cumulative chemical and non-chemical exposures. ConclusionGroup model building using SD can lead to important insights to into the sociological, policy, and institutional mechanisms through which disparities in cumulative impacts are transmitted, resisted, and understood.