Terrorist Targets Research Articles

What drives the frequency of terrorist attacks? Thematic analysis of a rapid evidence assessment

ABSTRACT Understanding how and why the frequency of terrorist attacks can change is clearly a critical issue and an increasing amount of research has focused on this subject. This article presents the results of a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) of research published from 2012 to 2022 on this area. A total of 50 articles were identified which met the review’s criteria thresholds. Thematic analysis identified eight core themes across the research which affected the frequency of terrorist attacks: Regime Type and Domestic Politics; Economic factors; Military Intervention and Foreign Fighters; Migration; Climate Change and Natural Disasters; Terrorist Organisational Qualities; Terrorist Target Selection Practices; and Media Coverage. The article also considers the research methods used across the studies and, in particular, reflects on the heavy reliance placed on the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Potential implications in terms of policy as well as recommended avenues for future research are discussed.

Deadly consequences: lessons from the evolution of terrorist attacks against United States diplomats

ABSTRACT This article sheds light on the complex relationship between adaptive terrorist behaviours and U.S. diplomacy by investigating the interplay between diplomatic security reform and terrorist target selection. A longitudinal study (1970–2019) of 555 terrorist attacks against U.S. diplomats suggests that terrorists targeted U.S. diplomats between 1970 and 1998 because they were perceived as soft, yet symbolic, targets. In response to increasing attacks on diplomats, the U.S. began improving diplomatic security, but an inability to grasp how terrorists operate caused this process to be inefficient and flawed. Terrorists, in turn, exploited these security conditions for decades until, after the deadliest series of coordinated attacks against U.S. diplomats occurred in 1998, security improved to a level where diplomats were no longer a viable target. The findings underscore the critical role of security enhancements and lessons learned in deterring terrorists, emphasising the need for effective intelligence systems and policies. The analysis therefore has numerous implications for understanding how we can learn from our inaction and demonstrates how we should use our understanding of terrorist rationality to predict tomorrow’s terrorist threats.

When the Messengers Are Targets of Terrorism: Restricted Media, State and Domestic Terrorism

Terrorist organizations are argued to have a symbiotic relationship with media. Despite the mutually beneficial relationship, media personnel and media outlets are frequently targeted by terrorist organizations across the world. This study explores this puzzle by arguing that the symbiotic relationship between media and terrorism is conditioned by the level of restrictions a state exercises on the media. State restrictions diminish media's utility to the terrorists who would view the restricted media as a proxy for the state, prompting the groups would attack the media targets and deliver a political message to the state. This conjecture is tested on a global cross-national dataset of domestic terrorism between 1970 and 2012, showing strong support for the hypothesized positive relation between media restrictions and terrorist attacks on media targets.

Study of Target Selection for Philippine Terrorism Attacks

The Philippine terrorist group is classified as foreign terrorist fighters who carry out acts of terrorism abroad with the aim of, among other things, establishing their own state in the southern Philippines. Of course, apart from committing acts of terrorism within the Philippines. Even though there is a connection between terrorists from Indonesia and terrorists from the Philippines, Filipino terrorists are not indicated to have carried out acts of terror in Indonesia as the target country. This research identifies that terrorist target selection always pays attention to targets, including geographical factors; calculation of political, social and religious factors; rationally and the choice takes into account ideology; terrorist capabilities; probability of attack success (risk with resulting number of victims); as well as, social ties and economic incentives. This target selection can be included in rational choice theory. Based on the perspective of rational choice theory, criminals tend to evaluate before committing by considering the probability of being discovered and caught, the effectiveness and impact of punishment that may be imposed, the potential value of existing crime proceeds and their short-term needs for crime proceeds; strong interactions between ideologies; operational motivations and choices, external mitigating influences. Keywords: Indonesia, Philippine, target selection, terrorism attacks

Socio-Economic Effects of Terrorism in Developing Countries: A Case of Kenya

Developing countries across the world have in the recent past become popular targets for terrorists and this has negatively impacted the performance of their social and economic development efforts. Based on its nature, terrorism is currently mainly categorized under international terrorism, domestic terrorism and transnational terrorism. Some of the causes of terrorism in developing countries include oppression from the ruling governments, ideological differences which include religious differences, poverty, as well as porous geographical borders which contribute to the growth of international terrorism. This paper will thus conceptualize the effects of terrorism in relation to social and economic growth in developing countries such as Nigeria, Somalia, Mali, Tanzania and Uganda, with specific reference to Kenya as the case study. Kenya has experienced sporadic terrorist attacks since the 1980s to date (January 2024) and these attacks have so far caused effects on the social and economic developments of Kenya as a developing country. This paper will highlight the types and causes of terrorism in Kenya and expound further on the effects of terrorism on social and economic developments in Kenya. This paper will be underpinned by the Henry Tajfel’s social identity theory of intergroup behaviour and discussed further under the theoretical framework.

Influence node analysis based on neighborhood influence vote rank method in social network

Social Networks are used for various purposes like advertising, product launches, sentiment analysis, opinion mining, and event detection etc. Terrorist targets social network users to spread the terrorism. Influence analysis is used in social networks to find the influence of users and the impact of the messages, mainly for advertising. In this research, the Neighborhood Influence – Vote Rank (NI-VR) method is proposed to analyze the terrorism and social network datasets temporally to find the influence node in Social networks. The Global Terrorism Dataset (GTD) was used to analyze the terrorism activity and temporal analysis on Social Network data to find the influence node. The Neighborhood node influence is measured and considered in the Social Network data to effectively find the influence node. The nodes’ vote score and vote ability were measured to rank the nodes based on influence. The neighborhood influence is measured to update the vote score and vote ability based on influence value. The neighborhood influence method is applied to rank the node has the advantage of analyzing the probability of affected nodes and recover nodes that help to effectively find the influence nodes. The outcomes illustrate that the proposed NI-VR achieved a maximum spread influence of 843 and the existing Greedy method has a higher spread influence of 840 in influence node analysis.

Insights from Evidence-Based Medicine Method for Building Security Systems Against Terrorist Attacks in Hospitals.

Hospitals have become soft targets for terrorism, with increasing terrorist attacks observed in the last two decades. Not only the counter-terrorism and law enforcement agencies but the hospitals also need to be actively involved and undertake the responsibility of safeguarding hospital security by establishing an effective security system. Evidence-based medicine emphasizes the significance of scientific evidence, and in practice, research methods for the generation, collection, and utilization of evidence may offer new insights to overcome the issue of terrorism. The present study discusses the potential application of methods in evidence-based medicine for developing security systems against terrorist attacks in hospitals. First, hospitals can use simulated scenarios of terrorist attacks to generate evidence. For example, combining virtual technology with virtual reality technology and selecting appropriate algorithms or models to generate evidence. Second, they can apply tabletop exercises to propose measures, as a means of collecting evidence. The collection of data can be obtained through questionnaires or interviews. Some biological methods, such as collecting salivary markers of acute stress (α-amylase and secretory immunoglobulin A), can also be used to assess emotional states. Third, they can use the collected evidence to practically test and refine the implemented measures. To verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the formulated solutions in real-life scenarios, simulations, models, drills, and similar methods can be used. This approach may provide new perspectives for the development of hospital security systems.

BNPT's Strategy In Anticipating Terrorism Crimes Through Cross-Sectoral Cooperation Synergy In Indonesia

The development of global terrorist crimes has shown a significant increase in mode, quantity and quality, with Indonesia becoming one of the targets of terrorism. It was revealed that the local militant network had links to international networks. Terrorist activities utilize ideology and religion as tools to influence society and achieve their goals. Therefore, the Indonesian government faces the phenomenon of terrorism wisely, analyzing various aspects of national life to fight terrorism together with the international community. Terrorism aims to create fear and uncertainty, create panic, disrupt social stability and disrupt the relationship between society and government. Terrorism, both on an international and local scale, can hamper efforts to create a conducive investment climate within the country. Serious challenges arise from the failure of several key terrorist figures to be caught and the emergence of new forms of terrorist acts. Factors such as individual and group interests, social inequality, religious beliefs, injustice in law enforcement, and socio-cultural changes influence the development of terrorism. Countering terrorism requires a synergistic cross-sectoral cooperation strategy to create domestic security stability. Even though efforts have been made to deal with terrorism, public awareness of the dangers of terrorism is still weak. Effective strategies in anticipating terrorism include steps that support aggressive and diversified strategies, including increasing community resilience, revising laws, as well as deradicalization and communal rehabilitation programs. In a global context, terrorism has become a serious focus for countries around the world and is a UN program in its efforts to prevent and overcome it. The history of terrorism in Indonesia records an increase in the number and impact of acts of terrorism, including incidents such as the Bali Bombing, the JW Marriott hotel explosion, and the attack in front of the Australian Embassy Building. Joint efforts to confront and prevent terrorism in Indonesia must take into account regional characteristics, potential and influencing aspects, without sacrificing national interests and ethnic and religious sensitivities.

Assessing Public Attitudes toward Random versus Symbolic Terrorist Targets: Survey Experimental Evidence

Abstract Do citizens react more adversely to terrorism that strikes random or symbolic targets? Despite the relative neglect of this question by conflict scholars, few attributes of terrorist attacks are more scrutinized by the public. In this article, we field a pair of preregistered, national survey experiments in the United Kingdom that measure the impact of random and symbolic targeting on public demands for armed retaliation. We find that results appear to vary depending on the level of stylization with which the attack is presented. In the abstract, citizens support more retaliation for terrorism directed at random targets. Yet when more concrete details are presented, citizens become similarly defensive of national symbols. We attempt to reconcile this apparent discrepancy by drawing on insights from political psychology, which lead us to propose that changes to the stylization of stimuli may induce citizens to emphasize different cognitive and emotional responses related to random and symbolic targeting. Our results call for more study into how the presentation of terrorist attacks affects public reactions.

GTD를 활용한 군(軍) 대상 테러 발생 현황 및 유형 분석 연구

At a time of heightened terrorism threats from terrorism organizations and increasingly realistic threats such as North Korea's drone incursions, few studies have focused on the military, despite the fact that it is one of the biggest targets of terrorism. Therefore, this study utilized the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) to conduct an in-depth analysis of terrorism incidents and military-related terrorism damage data over the past 50 years to face the reality and risk of terrorism against military facilities and to propose alternatives.
 The analysis revealed that the number of military victims and the percentage of victims are increasing, the number of deaths per incident is higher in military-related terrorism incidents than in general terrorism incidents, and the type of attack in military-related terrorism incidents is becoming more complex, while the type of attack in general terrorism incidents is becoming more monolithic with explosions. As a result of this analysis, it is necessary to adjust the priority of counter-terrorism alternatives according to the proportion of targeted facilities, and establish defense measures for each targeted facility. We hope that this study will serve as a basis for the military's future terrorism prevention measures and provide a foundation for further research.

Reviewing terrorism threat on China after the cold war

ABSTRACT Over the past three decades, terrorism has directly threatened China's national security and has played a key role in its foreign policy. The nature of terrorism in China is changing, as is the Chinese government's response to the threat. Despite the issue's importance, there is still little knowledge about the changing face of terrorism in China. Thus, this study fills the gap in the literature on this subject by reviewing the terrorism threat against China after the Cold War from 1989 through 2020, based on the global terrorism database. The study's main findings reveal that China is not a significant target of terrorism when compared to other powers. Terrorism in China is domestic and concentrated in four specific districts, chiefly caused by the Uyghurs Uprising. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the BRI did not cause a dramatic increase in terrorist attacks against Chinese citizens outside China.

Evaluation of the VVIP Security System in Cases of Terrorism in Indonesia

Acts of terrorism targeting Very Very Important Person (VVIP) have occurred several times in Indonesia. This shows that VVIP is one of the targets of terrorist attacks. So that the evaluation of the VVIP security system is mandatory, so that VVIP do not become victims of terrorist attacks again. The human factor, namely the mistakes of VVIP security officers, became the dominant factor in the success of terrorist attacks on VVIP. Strict sanctions against security officers who violate applicable rules need to be implemented so that other security officers do not repeat them. The implementation of a strict VVIP security system SOP is a must so that no more terrorist attacks against VVIP occur. In routine activity theory, a capable guard system can prevent a person from becoming a target for crime (terrorism).

From Local Conflicts to Global Terrorism: Can Refugees and Regional Security Problems Jeopardise the Renewal of Kenya

Over the last decade or so the African continent has continued to experience political changes of monumental proportions. Monumental not only because of the drastic restructuring of social and economic and political spaces, but also because of the introduction of new forms of politics and political actors. These changes were driven a great deal by the developments in the global system, in particular, the demise of the Soviet Union as a nation and super power, the triumph of the market, and more importantly, the end of the Cold War. In relation to these changes, the African continent has equally been characterisedby a succession of large-scale refugee movements, internal population displacements and mass repatriation movements. In a number of countries – Angola, Burundi, Liberia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Somalia, for example, large proportions of the population have been uprooted, forced to abandon their homes by communaland ethnic conflict, persecution and violence. Most of these refugees have ended up in Kenya with a number of arms or religious fundamental ideologies. The process has witnessed an influx of arms in Kenya, helping fuel intra-ethnic and inter-border conflicts. Kenya has witnessed massive devastating terrorist attacks beginning with the bombings of the US Embassy and now Kenya has become an easy prey and target for terrorist activities. The reasons for this trend have been a concern for academics around the globe. A close look at intra-state conflicts in East Africa reveals a common pattern, for example: rebellion against central authority; inter-communal ethnic or religious conflicts; sporadic short lived conflicts related to resource around livestock; and generalised violence which is banditry-related. This study is a historical investigation of the development of

Machine learning-based target prediction for terrorist attacks

To address the problem that terrorist attacks are frequent and attack targets are widely difficult to predict, we use multidimensional features of terrorist attacks to predict terrorist targets based on a quantitative statistical analysis of data in the global terrorism database (GTD) from 1970 to 2019. In this paper, a machine learning-based prediction model (i.e., a classifier framework) is proposed. The model pre-processes GTD data and uses the OneHotEncoder and KBinsDiscretizer methods for data category transformation, classifies terrorist targets by four algorithms—SVM, decision trees, KNN and DNN. Each algorithm was trained with their parameters optimised, and the performance of the proposed model was tested and evaluated. The experimental results show that the prediction model achieved good performance in predicting the attack targets. The neural network had the best prediction performance in predicting twenty-two attack targets with 100% accuracy, indicating that the proposed model is accurate and effective.

Examining the relevance of ‘EVIL DONE’ to the current terrorist threat landscape in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT Since the release of the Clarke and Newman’s ‘EVIL DONE’ framework in 2006, there has been limited empirical research on its capacity to predict target attractiveness and vulnerability as intended. This study investigated the utility of the framework in the context of the current United Kingdom (UK) threat landscape, including additions from the [Marchment, Z., & Gill, P. (2022). Spatial decision making of terrorist target selection: Introducing the TRACK framework. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 45(10), 862–880. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2020.1711588] TRACK framework using UK terrorist incidents between 2015 and 2021 (n = 184). For the UK as a whole ‘EVIL DONE’ may not be the best approach to predicting and mitigating the threat. Analysis of cases from Great Britain only demonstrates greater usefulness of the framework in explaining the attractiveness of targets.

머신러닝을 활용한 테러리즘 빅데이터 분석

The purpose of this study is to analyze terrorism-related structured and unstructured big data using machine learning techniques for big data analysis to confirm the predictability of terrorism and derive implications. To this end, big data on terrorism was obtained from research institutes specializing in terrorism, articles and documents posted on various portals and SNS were collected, put into machine learning, and analyzed and learned, and the results were confirmed. The analysis results are as follows. First, as a result of conducting K-Means Clustering, a representative unsupervised learning among machine learning techniques, eight regional clusters of terrorism occurred around the world in 2021 (near Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia). Next, as a result of clustering by type of terrorism, assassination using weapons excluding explosives, kidnapping or kidnapping targeting key facilities were identified. In addition, as a result of clustering around the means used in terrorism, it was confirmed that there were many explosives ahead, but there were differences according to the cluster. Finally, clusters of military, police, government personnel, civilians, and private property were identified as a result of clustering centered on targets of terrorism. Second, as a result of sentiment analysis by setting unstructured texts on terrorism events as research subjects, it was confirmed that there were differences in views on terrorism between terrorism researchers and the general public. Based on these research results, policy suggestions were made on ways to prevent terrorism.

Agent-Based Model of Mass Campus Shooting: Comparing Hiding and Moving of Civilians

The follow-up impact of the campus shooting incident is enormous. Due to a large number of minors (vulnerable groups) and complex building environments, the school is one of the main targets of terrorists. The Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in 2012 poses a challenge to social and public security. Considering the dichotomous characteristics of the people shot and the impact of the refuge area on the crowd movement in the shooting incident, we use an agent-based model to restore the real target case. Based on the optimal solution, we explore the effects of the number and location of building exits, the scale of the shooter's attack, and the time to find shelter on the shooting results. For building exits, we found that for the environment in the case, the exit location has little impact on the number of casualties, but the increase in the number of exits provides more evacuation routes for the crowd and reduces the number of casualties. Panic will increase the probability of collision and injury. Hiding in a refuge area away from the shooter is effective to avoid shooting injury. At the same time, we propose the critical point of hiding probability. When it is greater than 40%, the faster the escape speed is, the higher the safety is; escape is more likely to replace avoidance in hiding probability less than 40% of environments. These findings are helpful to guide the building evacuation channel construction and emergency evacuation training.

A Descriptive Analysis of the Health Care Aspects of Industrial Disasters Around the World

Introduction:Industrial disasters can have a myriad of repercussions ranging from acute deaths, injuries, and long-term adverse health impacts on nearby populations to political fallout and environmental damage. This is a descriptive epidemiological analysis of industrial disasters occurring between 1995 and 2021 which may provide useful insight for health care systems and disaster medicine specialists to better prevent and mitigate the effects of future industrial disasters.Method:Data was collected using a retrospective database search of the Emergency Events Database (EM-DATS) for all industrial disasters occurring between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2021.Results:1,054 industrial disasters were recorded from 1995 to 2021. The majority of these disasters occurred in Asia (720, 68.3%), with 131 (12.4%) in Africa, 107 (10.2%) in Europe, 94 (8.9%) in the Americas, and 2 (0.2%) in Oceania. Half of these disasters were explosions (533, 50.6%), 147 (13.9%) were collapses, 143 (13.6%) were fires, 46 (4.4%) were chemical spills, 41 (3.9%) were gas leaks, and 34 (3.2%) were poisonings. There were 6 (0.6%) oil spills and 3 (0.3%) radiation events.Conclusion:A total of 29,708 deaths and 57,605 injuries were recorded as a result of industrial disasters and they remain a significant contributor to the healthcare risks of both workers and regional communities. The need for specialized emergency response training, the potential devastation of an industrial accident, and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure as terror targets highlight the need to better understand the potential immediate and long-term consequences of such events and to improve healthcare responses in the future.

Pakistani Journalist: In the Line of Fire

This study aims to identify the challenges posed by Pakistan's Journalists and Media workers during the war on terror. Pakistan being the strategic ally of US interests became the combined foe of terror groups. Its citizens too became the target of terrorism. Since its inception; Pakistan has been struggling to hold on to the criterion of a stable state. Its constantly deteriorating state of affairs had left deep marks on the lives of its people. The ones who had suffered and sacrificed the most for their professional obligations were the media workers. They have been held at gunpoint by both the state and non-state actors. Their steadfastness in the face of terrorism, treason charges, torture and threats had made a remarkable chapter in the history of Pakistan.

Terrorist Attacks against Health Care Targets that Provide Abortion Services.

Terrorist attacks against hospitals and health care providers have disproportionally increased during the last decades. A significant proportion of these attacks targeted abortion clinics and abortion providers. In the light of the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, an increase of anti-abortion terrorist attacks is anticipated. Therefore, it becomes imperative to gain further insight into the risk and characteristics of past terrorist attacks. This study aimed to review terrorist attacks against health care targets providing abortion services from 1970 through 2020. Data collection was performed using a retrospective database search through the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The GTD was searched using the internal database functions for all terrorist attacks against abortion health care providers from January 1, 1970 - December 31, 2020. Temporal factors, location, attack and weapon type, and number of casualties or hostages were analyzed using descriptive statistics. In total, 262 terrorist attacks were identified in five different countries. The majority (96.6%) occurred in the United States, with the highest counts during the last 20 years of the 20th century. Facility and infrastructure attacks were the most common attack types, followed by bombings and explosions. The attacks resulted in 34 injuries and nine fatalities. Kidnapping took place in three incidents. Of all successful attacks, 96.9% resulted in property damage. Abortion-related health care facilities and providers have repeatedly been the target of terrorists over the past decades. Nearly all of these attacks took place in the United States, with the highest counts during the last 20 years of the 20th century.