Terrorist Targets Research Articles

‘Pay for It Heavily’: Does U.S. Support for Israel Lead to Anti-American Terrorism?

ABSTRACTAfter the 9/11 attacks in particular, there has been a controversial discussion in the academic and public arena on whether the United States’ close relationship with Israel has made it a likelier target of transnational terrorism. Indeed, foreign terrorist organizations with various ideological profiles have repeatedly justified attacks against U.S. interests as punishment for the (purported) special relationship between the United States and Israel. We analyze the effect of various measures of U.S. support for Israel (e.g. U.S. military assistance to Israel) on anti-American terrorism for the period 1970–2014. Using both time-series and panel approaches, we do not find that more U.S. support for Israel systematically translates into more anti-American terrorism. Rather, other systemic (e.g. U.S. dominance in the international system) and local conditions (e.g. local state failure) are found to predict the patterns of anti-American terrorism. However, as a qualification to these general findings, we also provide some (preliminary) evidence that for terrorism originating from the Middle East and Northern Africa a favorable U.S. policy stance towards Israel may indeed contribute to more anti-American terrorism.

Cluster Analysis of Pakistani Terrorism Events to Support Counterterrorism

The frequency of terrorist events in Pakistan has increased considerably in the past several years. These events are frequent and not random, making it important to identify useful patterns in their occurrences to assist counterterrorism organizations. In this paper, we conducted such an analytical activity for the first time in Pakistan. We acquired data of terrorist events from reliable online sources and applied data preprocessing techniques followed by cluster analysis. Based on statistical correlation, we discovered clusters over the following combinations: (1) “Event of Terrorism—Target of Terrorism”; and (2) “Event of Terrorism—Method of Terrorism”. A more significant clustering is one which groups distinct combinations into separate clusters. We analyzed these clusters along three dimensions: (1) Annually for the time period 1988–2012; (2) for each Pakistani province; and (3) for different types of terrorist events. We also proposed a statistic for gauging the intensity of terrorism and analyzed it along the same three dimensions. Our results were extensive, but generally indicated significant Event–Target and Event–Method clusters, as well as increasing and decreasing trends in terrorism intensity. These can assist counterterrorism authorities in thwarting future attacks and arresting the responsible criminals.

Do Foreign Aid Projects Attract Transnational Terrorism?

Abstract Governments and NGOs establish aid projects in order to improve the quality of life for local residents around the world. While recent news stories about aid workers being kidnapped or killed by terrorist groups are alarming, they mask a broader question: Are aid projects effective in promoting humanitarian aims and pacifying the areas to which it is sent? Or, conversely, does their presence actually attract more violence? Although humanitarian assistance is ostensibly non-political, aid projects themselves may make popular targets for terrorist groups. In addition to increasing resources available to plunder, aid provides an appealing foreign target, allowing terrorist groups to reach wider audiences with their attacks and to reinforce the narrative that the government lacks capacity to protect and provide for civilians. In this paper we combine subnational, project-level aid data with newly-assembled subnational data on transnational terrorism to explore terrorist targeting of aid locations. After presenting our matched-sample analysis of terrorist targeting of aid, we outline avenues for future inquiry using high-resolution, subnational data to investigate the strategic vulnerabilities of foreign aid projects.

Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism: An Analysis of the Current Considerations and Barriers Inhibiting the Adoption of Counterterrorism Protective Security Measures

While much of the literature concerning counterterrorism focuses on policies and strategies aimed at removing either the terrorist environment and/or the groups or individuals willing to utilize political violence to achieve their goal(s), there is a much smaller body of work concerned with antiterrorism, namely those defensive measures that are designed to prevent or deter terrorist attacks. Increasingly, crowded places have become popular targets for terrorists and the research presented in this article connects the planning, design, and development of real estate with respect to the adoption of protective counterterrorism measures. It seeks to develop new understandings of the considerations that real estate developments have toward terrorism, as well as the barriers that may inhibit counterterrorism protective security measures in future development projects. The analysis is based on qualitative research, namely semi-structured interviews conducted in the United Kingdom, United States, and Australia with professionals involved in all core strands of the real estate development process. The findings suggest that considerations toward terrorism vary considerably as a consequence of a range of factors and that while expected factors such as cost and aesthetics are important determinants for decision making, a range of other barriers exist.

The local geography of transnational terrorism

Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where transnational terror attacks occur within targeted countries. To date, quantitative terrorism research identifies country- or region-level correlates of terrorism, neglecting possible local factors. In this study, we posit five local-level factors that increase the likelihood of a terror attack: security of a target, accessibility, symbolism, material harm, and exclusion. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including multilevel, negative binomial, and propensity score matching models, we regress new sub-national geographically coded transnational terrorism data on various sub-national measures that might theoretically increase the likelihood of a terror attack. The results demonstrate that although country- and region-level factors matter, numerous local-level conditions, including where civil violence occurs, sub-national economic activity, and proximity to capitals and urban areas, are equally, if not more, important. The results help to substantiate the analytical benefits of adopting the sub-national level of analysis in the study of transnational terrorism.

Integrated risk management of hazardous processing facilities

Processing facilities handling large amounts of hazardous substances are attractive targets for terrorists. Thus, these work sites are exposed not only to accidents but also to intentional threats. Some research has separately studied risk caused by either potential accidental events or terrorist acts. However, studies focusing on integrated risk assessment and management (dealing with both safety and security issues) are lacking. This paper proposes an approach to assess and manage integrated risks. This method is based on an influence diagram which incorporates safety and security‐related factors into one framework. It considers the effects of management actions on both accidental and intentional risks. This method can help to detect hidden risk (i.e., the risk not recognized during design and operation stages) and ensure to reduce the real risk to an acceptable level by guiding the selection of management actions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated using the overfilling risk management of an oil tank. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Process Saf Prog 38: 42–51, 2019

Implementation of an empirical tool for fast prediction of bomb airblast loading

As terrorist attacks continue all over the world and, therefore, the alarming rate of countries governments as well as the awareness of people about danger is significantly increasing, in recent years high explosive airblast effects assessment and protection have become a fundamental concern for structural designers. In this article, the implementation of an original predictive tool based on the literature empirical data to develop analyses of blast loading consequent to a bomb explosion is described. The in-house developed model enables the fast calculation of the distribution of the main blast wave parameters around and over three-dimensional complex geometries virtually reproducing potential attractive targets for terrorists. Considering these capabilities, the use of the proposed novel methodology is desirable in the preparatory and retrofit design in view of evaluating blast-induced adverse consequences and, accordingly, to identify and effectively set up the most appropriate protective strategies and countermeasures.

CCP game: A game theoretical model for improving the scheduling of chemical cluster patrolling

Chemical clusters can be attractive targets for terrorism, due to the extreme importance of them as well as due to the existence of dangerous materials. Patrolling is scheduled for better securing chemical clusters. However, the current patrolling strategies fail on competing with intelligent attackers and therefore can be non-optimal. The so-called chemical cluster patrolling (CCP) game is proposed in this paper. The CCP game employs game theory as a methodology, aiming at randomly but strategically scheduling security patrols in chemical clusters. The patroller and the attacker are modelled as the two rational players in the CCP game. The patroller's strategy is defined as probabilistically traveling within the cluster or patrolling some plants while the attacker's strategy is formulated as a combination of an attack target, the start time of the attack, and the attack scenario to be used. The Stackelberg equilibrium and a robust solution which takes into consideration of the patroller's distribution-free uncertainties on the attacker's parameters are defined for predicting the outcome of the CCP game. Results of the case study indicate that the patrolling strategy suggested by the CCP game outperforms both the fixed patrolling route strategy and the purely randomized patrolling strategy.

Emergency Organization of Child Psychiatric Care Following the Terrorist Attack on July 14, 2016, in Nice, France.

In the actual context of terrorism targeting children and families, it seems essential to describe different experiences of pediatric psychological emergency devices after such unexpected mass trauma. Here we testify our experience of the psychological emergency care setup dedicated to children and families during the first 48 hours after the terrorist attack of Nice, France, on July 14, 2016. Activated within the hour following the attack, the device included two child psychiatry teams turning over each day, receiving at least 163 individuals (99 children and 64 adults) within the first 2 days. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:144-146).

Not in My Back Yard: Public Perceptions and Terrorism

Why does the public care more about some terrorist attacks than others? In recent years, there has been a wave of terrorist attacks carried out by similar terrorist organizations, but these attacks have produced disparate public responses. Existing research shows that terrorist attacks are more traumatic for people who live near terrorist targets, but this research cannot explain differences in public attitudes about attacks occurring in other countries. We argue that threat perceptions are shaped by the physical and personal proximity of terrorist attacks. The identities of the victims are rarely known. People impute the characteristics of victims based on the country where the attack occurred. These perceived identities determine the empathy people feel toward victims and affect perceptions of terrorist threats. People feel a greater sense of vulnerability when attacks occur near their borders. We test these arguments using a series of online experiments. We find that the location of the attack and the race and nationality of the victims drive threat perceptions.

Monetary Reward and Punishment to Response Inhibition Modulate Activation and Synchronization Within the Inhibitory Brain Network.

A reward or punishment can modulate motivation and emotions, which in turn affect cognitive processing. The present simultaneous functional magnetic resonance imaging-electroencephalography study examines neural mechanisms of response inhibition under the influence of a monetary reward or punishment by implementing a modified stop-signal task in a virtual battlefield scenario. The participants were instructed to play as snipers who open fire at a terrorist target but withhold shooting in the presence of a hostage. The participants performed the task under three different feedback conditions in counterbalanced order: a reward condition where each successfully withheld response added a bonus (i.e., positive feedback) to the startup credit, a punishment condition where each failure in stopping deduced a penalty (i.e., negative feedback), and a no-feedback condition where response outcome had no consequences and served as a control setting. Behaviorally both reward and punishment conditions led to significantly down-regulated inhibitory function in terms of the critical stop-signal delay. As for the neuroimaging results, increased activities were found for the no-feedback condition in regions previously reported to be associated with response inhibition, including the right inferior frontal gyrus and the pre-supplementary motor area. Moreover, higher activation of the lingual gyrus, posterior cingulate gyrus (PCG) and inferior parietal lobule were found in the reward condition, while stronger activation of the precuneus gyrus was found in the punishment condition. The positive feedback was also associated with stronger changes of delta, theta, and alpha synchronization in the PCG than were the negative or no-feedback conditions. These findings depicted the intertwining relationship between response inhibition and motivation networks.

Countering Jihadist Terrorism: A Comparative Analysis of French and German Experiences

ABSTRACTAs France and Germany have become major targets of jihadist terrorism, the calls for stronger cooperation in counterterrorism at the European level have grown in earnest. However, a comparative analysis of the national experiences from both countries evidences significant differences in terms of political culture, institutional division of labor, and legal oversight. Counterterrorism practices can be described following a typology of three broad categories: a military-oriented policy that aims to prevent, deter and retaliate against terrorists; a regulatory policy that strengthens the legal and judicial resources to address the terrorist threat; a diplomatic approach that focuses on negotiations, and sometimes accommodation. Whereas France moved after the 2015 attacks towards a military-oriented policy, Germany has so far opted to sustain its traditional regulatory approach. This article details the differences between Paris and Berlin regarding the contemporary public debate on jihadist terrorism, to the law enforcement framework, to the deradicalization programs as well as to the role of armed forces. The paper identifies a clear divergence in each of these sectors. As the future extent of bi- and multilateral lateral efforts in the field of counterterrorism are likely to rise, these differences should be better taken into account.

Evropska finansijska mreža islamističkog terorizma

In this paper the author analyses one of the most important aspects of global Islamist terrorism on the territory of Europe - the terrorism financing network. Although Europe has become on of the main targets of Islamist terrorists in recent years, its answer to the rising terrorism threat has, to this day, proven to be mild and ineffective. The same can be said regarding the European security officials' fight against the financial networks of terrorist organisations. While the US, after the attacks on New York and Washington in 2001, established the 'Patriot Act', Europe did not follow through, which made it a perfect location for terrorists who were forced to withdraw their funds from America. The absence of a global and homogenous legislation comparable to the American 'Patriot Act' can be partially explained by the fact that Europe does not possess the equivalent of a federal legislation because the degree of the political integration of the European Union members is much weaker than that of the American states. The lack of homogeneity of the European structures has allowed members of terrorist organisations to take advantage of gaps that exist in the local legislation of every country. Apart from the fact that the EU does not have a common set of anti-terrorism laws, its problem also lays in the fact that liberal- democratic European political elites place too much emphasis on the notion of human rights, which is, in fact, crippling their security forces and making it very hard for them to properly investigate individuals and organisations suspected of financing terrorist activities.

Presidential Policy Guidance: Procedures for Approving Direct Action Against Terrorist Targets Located Outside The United States and Areas of Active Hostilities

With the rise of terrorist threats emanating from outside the territory of the United States and simultaneous advancements in armed drone technology, the United States began a rapidly escalating lethal drone program in the years after 9/11. While the first U.S. drone strike occurred in Yemen in 2002 during the George W. Bush administration, President Barack Obama dramatically increased the number of drone strikes during his first term.

Generosity Is a Dangerous Game: Aid Allocation and the Risks of Terrorism

ABSTRACTWhile evidence has suggested that international assistance projects become the targets of violence, political science research has often addressed this relationship at the state level and not the aid location itself. Given the heterogeneous nature of aid distribution and terrorist behavior within a state, it is important to study this relationship using higher resolution data. Using geocoded terrorist attack and multilateral aid distribution data, coupled with the PRIO-GRID cell structure, our approach sheds light on whether areas in which aid is distributed are more likely to be targeted by terrorist groups. Our results show that areas where aid is being distributed are targeted more heavily than areas without aid distribution. The modality of specific multilateral aid projects is also shown to impact whether they are more likely to be targeted. Further, we show that terrorists select different types of targets in aid locations than they do in non-aid locations, lending support to the notion that terrorists seek to intimidate local populations from collaboration with the government and to dissuade further government efforts. The results not only highlight and expand upon the dangers associated with aid distribution, but also the notion that aid content is a factor in terrorist targeting preferences.

Mock terrorists decisions’ concerning use of the internet for target selection: a red-team approach

ABSTRACTIn this study we sought to identify which locations appear more, or less, attractive to a terrorist in planning an attack and to investigate what attributes of those locations influence preferences. A sample of undergraduate university students (N = 147) were given the role of terrorists, and provided with five potential attack locations, including a pedestrian mall, a shopping center, a train station, a university and an airport. After using the Internet to learn about the target locations, participants placed the locations in rank-order from most to least preferred as targets and indicated why they had selected those targets. Results showed both a clear rank-order of target preferences: locations perceived as being more crowded were more preferred, while locations with a greater security presence were less preferred. Results also demonstrated a moderate positive correlation between the amount of online information viewed for a specific location and the preference for that location as a terrorist target, where participants who viewed more online content for a particular location were more likely to also prefer that location as a terrorist target. Findings from this study can potentially be used to reduce the likelihood of a terrorist attack occurring on specific locations, by altering the publicly available information on that location regarding the security and how crowded that location is.

Concessions or Crackdown: How Regime Stability Shapes Democratic Responses to Hostage taking Terrorism

A prominent view in the terrorism literature is that democracies make soft targets for terrorists due to their citizenry’s low tolerance for civilian casualties. This study tests this claim in the context of hostage taking terrorism, which is a unique form of violence that coerces the target state into negotiating over its citizens’ lives under public scrutiny. I argue that democratic accountability generates softer responses to hostage crises only in mature democracies, where leaders’ concern over being held accountable for the human costs of a no-concessions policy outweighs the reputational costs of conceding to terrorists’ demands. Using data on government responses to hostage incidents from 1978 to 2005, I find that regime type becomes a significant predictor of target concessions only at higher levels of regime stability. To test the accountability mechanism proposed by theory, I examine the effect of electoral cycles on target response; as expected, while nearing elections soften democratic responses to hostage crises, in general their positive effect on the likelihood of concessions is stronger in consolidated democracies.

Michele R. McPhee, Maximum Harm: The Tsarnaev Brothers, The FBI, and the Road to the Marathon Bombing (ForeEdge, 2017)

At 2.49 p.m. on April 15 2013 two home-made bombs wreaked carnage at the annual Boston Marathon. As a symbolic target of jihadist terror, the marathon’s finishing line area was particularly well chosen: a crowd celebrating individual runners’ achievements under an array of international flags symbolised an entire Western-led global order. Three died in these explosions; hundreds more were injured (of whom no less than 17 lost limbs). Two more policemen were to die in the four-day manhunt that followed before the bombers, Chechen-American brothers, Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, were finally stopped. General rejoicing greeted the news that Tamerlan had been killed, and Dzhokhar arrested. As Michele McPhee comments simply: ‘I know a lot of police officers who didn’t have to pay for a round of beers that night’ (p. viii).

Mitigating capital flight through military expenditure: Insight from 37 African countries

The purpose of this study is to assess the thresholds at which military expenditure modulates the effect of terrorism on capital flight. We employed a panel data of 37 African countries from 1996 to 2010. The empirical evidence was based on: (i) baseline contemporary and non-contemporary OLS, (ii) contemporary and non-contemporary fixed effects regressions to account for the unobserved heterogeneity, (iii) the Generalised Method of Moments to account for the capital flight trap and (iv) Quantile Regressions (QR) to account for initial levels of capital flight. The study found that the thresholds are apparent exclusively in Quantile Regressions with military expenditure thresholds ranging from: 4.224 to 5.612 for domestic terrorism, 5.734–7.363 for unclear terrorism and 4.710–6.617 for total terrorism. No thresholds are apparent in transnational terrorism related regressions. Depending on the terrorist target, the findings broadly show that a critical mass of between 4.224 and 7.363 of military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is needed to reverse the negative effect of terrorism on capital flight. In spite of the growing consensus of the need to utilise military expenditure to help combat terrorism, our understanding of the threshold at which military expenditure completely dampens the negative effect of terrorism on capital flight remains largely underexplored. We capitalize on panel data of 37 African countries to address this lacuna in our understanding of this important issue.

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