Terrorism Risk Research Articles

Histological assessment of intestinal injury by ionizing radiation.

Given the potential risk of radiological terrorism and disasters, it is essential to develop plans to prepare for such events. In these hazardous scenarios, radiation-induced gastrointestinal (GI) syndrome is one of the many manifestations that may happen after the organism is exposed to a lethal dose of ionizing radiation. Therefore, it is critical to better understand how the intestinal tissues initiate and orchestrate regeneration following severe radiation injury. In this chapter, we aimed to provide several key considerations for researchers who utilize histological assessment to study radiation-induced intestinal injury. Rigor and reproducibility are critical in experimental design and can be achieved by maintaining proper radiation administration, maintaining consistency in sample collection, and selecting and using appropriate controls. We also provided technical details of histological preparation of the intestines with tips on dissecting, cleaning, fixing, and preserving. Step-by-step descriptions of both bundling and Swiss rolling are provided with discussion on how to choose between the two approaches. In the following section, we detailed several histological assessment methods and then provided suggestions on how to use histological assessment to study cellular dynamics in the small intestines. Finally, we touched on some non-histological assessments. We hope that the information provided in this chapter will contribute to the research society of radiation-induced intestinal injury with an ultimate goal of promoting the development of radiation countermeasures against the GI acute radiation syndrome.

Evaluating Security of Big Data Through Fuzzy Based Decision-Making Technique

In recent years, it has been observed that the disclosure of information increases the risk of terrorism. Without restricting the accessibility of information, providing security is difficult. So, there is a demand for time to fill the gap between security and accessibility of information. In fact, security tools should be usable for improving the security as well as the accessibility of information. Though security and accessibility are not directly influenced, some of their factors are indirectly influenced by each other. Attributes play an important role in bridging the gap between security and accessibility. In this paper, we identify the key attributes of accessibility and security that impact directly and indirectly on each other, such as confidentiality, integrity, availability, and severity. The significance of every attribute on the basis of obtained weight is important for its effect on security during the big data security life cycle process. To calculate the proposed work, researchers utilised the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP). The findings show that the Fuzzy AHP is a very accurate mechanism for determining the best security solution in a real-time healthcare context. The study also looks at the rapidly evolving security technologies in healthcare that could help improve healthcare services and the future prospects in this area.

A study on Terrorism Risk in Multinational Corporations

This paper discusses the circumstances that may prompt fresh thinking about risk and its management at the policy and MNCs (multinational corporations) levels. How do MNCs deal with the strategic management risk associated with attacks like 9/11, which affects their decisions regarding internationalisation and cross-border business operations? It has been noted that multinational corporations (MNCs) are expanding the concept of political risk. Expanding the traditional risk-return analysis is recommended to include the impact of terrorism on investment, location, logistics, supply-chain, and other performance-linked decisions across the global value chain. The paper accomplishes this primarily through analysis and differentiation of the most vulnerable links in firms' value chain, for which adjustments need to be made in the face of terrorism threat, act, and aftermath. In an age of global risk and uncertainty, this paper seeks to advance comprehension of international management.

THE GROWTH OF ALERT CAPACITIES FOR TERRORIST RISKS

The problem of terrorism has become during the last few years a hot topic for military and governmental institutions involved with managing the security of civil society and not only. The latest events have emphasized the necessity of knowing the modes of action of terrorist attacks. Each of these incidents had as an effect the change of laws and regulations and the implementation of new sets of measures for preventing and countering this phenomenon. At the same time, each incident has allowed states to evaluate again the necessity of establishing, equipping and training specialized structures for intervention in these cases. All of these events have determined the publication of studies which would lead to a better understanding of problems and to the establishment of efficient measures for combating and countering this reality we are facing nowadays. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the importance of alert capabilities for terrorist risks. Hence, in the first paper of the paper we will analyze the notion of terrorism, we will call to attention structures with a role in countering terrorism and we will present one identified means of fighting against terrorist risks and the importance of mass media in accomplishing this fight. Also, we will underline the necessity of creating a specialized structure for fighting this phenomenon, as well as the necessity of the capabilities which are at ourdisposal and of the present legislation.

Evaluation of the maritime security threats and issues to the future of the shipping industry – Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships

Nowadays traditional manned commercial sea-going vessels are facing several difficulties, including shipping accidents that are mainly caused by human errors and the shortage of seafarers with the associated increased manning cost. In 2021, the International Maritime Organisation Maritime Safety Committee (IMO MSC) had finished the Regulatory Scoping Exercise (RSE) regarding Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) at its 103rd session, taking its first step towards autonomous shipping that does not involve human vectors. This paper analyses the security issues that are potentially involved in fully autonomous ships (Degree Four of Autonomy) (DOA 4) of MASS operations and recommend measures to adjust and mitigate the issues. This paper reviews six conventional maritime security threats that could threaten a DOA 4 vessel, including piracy and armed robbery at sea, terrorism, smuggling and trafficking, stowaways, cyber security threat and hybrid security threat. The research methodology of this paper reviews different literature as the source of both quantitative data and qualitative evidence. This paper analyses the experience of the security incidents in other comparable sectors and systems in order to identify the characteristics and behaviour of the security threats. Then the information is analysed against the specific characteristics of MASS operations to consider whether the characteristics of MASS operations may become more vulnerable if exploited by perpetrators of security threats. Potential issues and scenarios of the security threats in the operations are also discussed. Risk assessments are applied to explore the risk level of the security threats in DOA 4 MASS. This paper demonstrates that the characteristics of DOA 4 MASS operations may still pose vulnerabilities that can be exploited by all the six security threats. The risk of terrorism, smuggling and trafficking, cyber security, and hybrid security threats are high in DOA 4 MASS operations, while the risk of piracy and armed robbery at sea and stowaways are medium. Both the aspects of cyber security, detection/monitoring equipment, reliability of vessel systems, security in Shore Control Centres (SCC) and security in ports contribute significantly to the security of DOA 4 MASS operations against these security threats. This paper recommends all the aspects mentioned in the above findings should be considered in the development of future instruments regarding DOA 4 MASS operations. The stakeholders involved in DOA 4 MASS operations should apply any possible cyber security and detection/monitoring measures even beyond the legal requirement. The security and personnel management of SCC should be ensured too. Finally, further research on the identified security threats on DOA 4 MASS operations is recommended once more practical data on the operations are available, further research on different DOA of MASS operations and different security threats are also recommended.

Terrorism as an interactive process: a tool for the assessment of terrorist affiliation degree

ABSTRACT The present paper proposes an instrument to measure the risk of terrorist conflicts through the concept of affiliation to a terrorist organization. The proposed instrument is called the Tool for the Assessment of Terrorist Affiliation Degree (TATAD) and measures how close the respondents are to a complete affiliation, on a scale of four degrees. Based on the Methodology for the Analysis of Computerised Textual Data, each degree is characterized by specific interactive modalities that differ in the ways they contribute to conflict or to community cohesion. Based on the degree of affiliation, it is possible to anticipate acts of conflict that are coherent with the modality of interaction measured by TATAD. By considering the interactive modalities, and not only the contents linked to terrorism, the process of affiliation is the same independently of the type of terrorist society and its beliefs (ideological, religious, etc.). Therefore, TATAD can be used independently of the specific context and motives of terrorism. By detecting critical modalities of interaction, TATAD can be used to support decision making and plan interventions to promote community cohesion in prisons and migration services, and to evaluate the efficiency of counter-terrorism strategies, policies and projects aimed at promoting social cohesion.

Health Care Management during a Major Planned Event in Italy.

Events involving a high number of participants should be planned and implemented with the primary objective of guaranteeing the highest possible level of safety, which is ever more essential in the recent years due to the risk of terrorism, violence, and highly transmissible pathogens like coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).The aim of this study was describing health care management of the Vasco Modena Park July 1, 2017 concert by the artist Vasco Rossi that involved 220,000 participants, more than doubling the population of Modena (Italy), the city hosting the event.Data were retrospectively collected from all health care registers used during the concert. Descriptive data regarding the event were recorded, as well as the medical records generated by the advanced medical posts.For analysis, patients were divided into two groups: the LOW-Severity (admission code green) and HIGH-Severity (admission codes yellow and red). The number of patients within the inclusion period was 1,088; there were 953 green discharge codes (97.74%), 16 yellow (1.64%), and six red (0.61%). Patients who needed a second-level assessment were 5.85% (57 events). HIGH-Severity patients needed to be further evaluated in 45.45% of the cases versus 4.93% of the LOW-Severity patient group (P value <.001).The health care management proved adequate to the number of participants and the severity of patients. Descriptive data reported add the mass-gathering database useful for further events.

The Politics of Perception: Political Preference Strongly Associated with Different Perceptions of Islamist and Right-Wing Terrorism Risk

ABSTRACT Islamist and extreme right-wing (XRW) terrorism represent about equal levels of risk in terms of casualties in the U.S. over the past decade, yet Islamist terrorists receive far more news coverage, have more serious charges filed against them, are considered more deserving of torture and detainment, and receive harsher prison sentences than XRW terrorists. That Islamist and XRW terrorism elicit such different responses raises the question: Do Americans perceive the risk of Islamist and XRW terrorism differently? To investigate, we measured risk perceptions for Islamist and XRW terrorism in a nationally representative sample of 405 U.S. residents. How Americans perceived the risk of terrorism was strongly associated with their political preferences, such that conservatives perceived Islamist terrorism as the greater risk and liberals perceived XRW terrorism as the greater risk. The political orientation of the news media participants consumed was also significantly related to which type of terrorism they perceived to be a greater risk, in the same pattern. Our results indicate that perceived risk for these types of terrorism tends to be polarized along political fault lines, with implications for risk communication regarding terrorism.

Detecting terrorism risk behaviours in prisons: a thematic analysis

ABSTRACT Detecting and monitoring prisoners who present a risk of committing terrorism is an important objective of prison authorities. A key practice in many prison services is for prison staff to observe prisoner behaviours that may indicate such risk. However, there is a dearth of research that systematically examines which behaviours signify, or prison staff consider to signify, terrorism risk. This study addresses this issue by systematically examining the nature and prevalence of different behaviours indicated across a large and unique international data set of both open and closed sources, which primarily focusses on Islamist groups and ideologies. Reflexive thematic analysis identifies 29 distinct behaviours (subthemes), brigaded under 6 domains of functioning (main themes). Tentative findings suggest that many behaviours are consistently identified across open and closed data sources, indicating these are similar in different jurisdictions – although how they manifest locally may not be – and in both the fields of research and practice. Whilst some behaviours may (also) signify general non-compliance in prisons, others appear more distinct in potentially signifying terrorism risk. Finally, this practice appears over-focussed on prisoner behaviours that signify risk, rather than protection or resilience. Findings are discussed in relation to theoretical, methodological, and operational issues.

The Connection between the Risk of Terrorism and Its Economic and Political Determinants, Analysis, and Application for Forecasting

ABSTRACT The paper is focused on studying the relationship between the risk of terrorism and economic and political development of 13 European countries, quantified using a set of socio-economic and political indicator variables. Numbers of terrorist attacks are used as a terrorist activity indicator. A method of categorization of the numbers of terrorist attacks into a level of risk of terrorism index is presented. Proportional odds multinomial logit generalized linear model is used to describe the connection between the level of risk and the socio-economic and political indicator variables. The presented findings imply that the connection is significant for 9 out of the 13 studied countries. Furthermore, a possible application of the model for obtaining short time predictions of the probability of the levels of risk is presented using a real data set.

Do terrorist attacks matter for currency excess returns?

This paper provides a novel investigation into how currency excess returns react to terrorist attacks. We construct a terrorism risk factor and demonstrate that it significantly matters to excess returns of both carry trade and individual currencies. Furthermore, we form a currency portfolio by simply buying terrorism-sensitive currencies and selling less terrorism-sensitive currencies, which yields economically positive and statistically significant returns. It has shown that this newly proposed terrorism risk factor could provide a marginal improvement for exchange rate pricing facing terrorist attacks.

COLLABORATION STRATEGY IN THE PENTA-HELIX CONCEPT: DERADICALIZATION PROGRAM FOR TERRORIST SEPARATISM GROUPS IN PAPUA

On 29 April, 2021, The Indonesian Government declared the Armed Criminal Group (KKB) as a Separatism Terrorist Group (KST), in response to the casualties, both from the military and civilian parties. In particular, the death of the Kabinda of Papua and Bharada Komang was a catalyst for this announcement as previous conflict resolution steps failed to address the ongoing conflict in Papua. The increased risk of terrorism in the Papuan region is driven by the lack of research into focused deradicalization programs. In this article, the author seeks to address how a targeted deradicalization program is an appropriate conflict approach to this situation. This paper proposes the Penta-Helix concept as a suitable program, which seeks to facilitate the specific needs for deradicalisation in this region. The Penta-Helix concept is based on five factors: the history of separatism in Papua, the traditions of the Papuan people, the variance between religious and secular radicalism, the concept of deradicalisation and disengagement, and the TNI-Polri Operasi Penggalangan and the current deradicalization program in Indonesia. The collaboration and cooperation of the Pentahelix concept’s five factors, in the form of representative actors, are essential in the development and implementation of three stages of the proposed deradicalization program: identification, psychological adjustment, and aftercare. Finally, this paper outlines eight recommendations, called the “Optimization Strategy for the Deradicalization Program”, which intend to be applied for sustainable deradicalisation of Papuan terrorism separatists.

Moving into Terrorism: How Climate-Induced Rural-Urban Migration May Increase the Risk of Terrorism

ABSTRACT How can we expect climate change to affect terrorism? Research on climate-conflict links argues that climate and conflict are unlikely to exhibit a direct relationship. Instead, these links are likely to be indirect, often through negative shocks to agriculture. Even then, politics remains a far stronger influence on conflict than climate. Terrorism appears particularly unlikely to be directly linked to climate change, since climate change disproportionately affects rural areas and terrorism disproportionately affects urban areas. Yet, we argue that there is a process through which climate change could increase the risk of terrorism. This process involves failure to adapt in rural areas, rural-urban migration, and then a failure of cities to incorporate new population influxes. Meanwhile, rural-urban migration is likely to trigger path-dependent urbanization processes that will increase the share of the world’s population living near country borders. We expect this process to increase the motivation and opportunity for terrorism as climate change continues. Policies that help rural areas adapt through new livelihood strategies and cities adapt to large population influxes are critical to reducing this threat.

Assessment of the impact of ethnic economic inequality on terrorism threat

Subject. The article addresses the impact of horizontal or group inequality on terrorism. Objectives. The purpose is to quantify the impact of ethnic economic inequality on terrorism threat. Methods. The study draws on regression analysis. Results. The paper established that a higher degree of ethnic inequality spurs a greater number of terrorist acts and a greater number of people killed or injured. It shows that countries with a high degree of political freedom and high quality of public administration, as a rule, are less likely to suffer from terrorism. Conclusions. The promotion of economic equality of ethnic groups can potentially reduce the risk of domestic terrorism.

A combined finite element and deep learning network for structural dynamic response estimation on concrete gravity dam subjected to blast loads

Social infrastructures such as dams are likely to be exposed to high risk of terrorist and military attacks, leading to increasing attentions on their vulnerability and catastrophic consequences under such events. This paper tries to develop advanced deep learning approaches for structural dynamic response prediction and dam health diagnosis. At first, the improved long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are proposed for data-driven structural dynamic response analysis with the data generated by a single degree of freedom (SDOF) and the finite numerical simulation, due to the unavailability of abundant practical structural response data of concrete gravity dam under blast events. Three kinds of LSTM-based models are discussed with the various cases of noise-contaminated signals, and the results prove that LSTM-based models have the potential for quick structural response estimation under blast loads. Furthermore, the damage indicators (i.e., peak vibration velocity and domain frequency) are extracted from the predicted velocity histories, and their relationship with the dam damage status from the numerical simulation is established. This study provides a deep-learning based structural health monitoring (SHM) framework for quick assessment of dam experienced underwater explosions through blast-induced monitoring data.

Terrorism Risk During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak Period

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, causes negative consequences for states in terms of political, economic, sociological, psychological and security. Due to the problems that have occured during the pandemic period, the capacities of states are under pressure. Terrorist organizations aim to put pressure on governments in line with their political objectives by creating anxiety, fear, and panic on the civilian population with their attacks. This study investigates how the COVID-19 process affects terrorism, and tries to answer the question whether there is a relationship between trust in authority and terrorist activities during this period, or not. Just as states were unprepared for terrorism, they were also caught unprepared for the pandemic. The responses of some states to COVID-19 may further broaden public concern and create conditions that are favorable to terrorism. According to the study, it is explicit that this anxiety environment created by COVID-19 is regarded as an opportunity by terrorist organizations, and it is also obvious that the concern among the population is used and led by terrorist organizations. Curfews and travel restrictions also create mitigating conditions for the terrorist threats in most parts of the world during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is pathogen reduction an acceptable alternative to irradiation for risk mitigation of transfusion-associated graft versus host disease?

Transfusion-associated graft versus host disease (TA-GVHD) is a highly morbid and often fatal adverse event associated with transfusion of cellular blood products [platelets, red blood cells (RBCs) and whole blood] and more rarely with never-frozen plasma products. It is caused by residual viable donor T-lymphocytes that proliferate and actively target recipient tissues. Selective or universal irradiation of blood components using gamma-irradiation and more recently, X-ray irradiation, are the most commonly applied interventions and have been validated by the demonstration of in vitro T-lymphocyte inactivation, in murine models of TA-GVHD and by years of clinical experience. Irradiation, however, has multiple limitations including a sharp dose-response curve that renders quality control of dosage critically important, the use of radioactive radiation sources that are a terrorism risk, and selective implementation in many countries that leads to inadvertent omission and patient risk exposure. Certain pathogen reduction technologies (PRT) for platelets have been approved by regulatory authorities and endorsed by professional societies as an alternative to irradiation for reducing the risk of TA-GVHD, and PRT for RBCs and whole blood are in development. While the mechanism of action of T-lymphocyte inactivation differs from gamma/X-ray irradiation, the impact on T-lymphocyte inactivation for PRT is equivalent or superior to that of irradiation as demonstrated by sensitive in vitro lymphocyte proliferation assays and in vivo mouse models that approximate human TA-GVHD. Clinical trials and cumulative routine-use experience attest to the efficacy of PRT when used as an alternative to irradiation. While T-lymphocyte inactivation efficacy varies between PRT platforms, the implementation of PRT for platelets increases blood safety for patients beyond the mitigation of TA-GVHD, by decreasing the risk of transfusion transmitted infections with known viruses, bacteria and parasites as well as emerging pathogens.

Factors affecting risk perception during terrorist attacks

The purpose of this study is to investigate the risk perception of a community when responding immediately after a terrorist attack in Iraq. Primary data has been collected through intensive interviews with 10 respondents, all of whom participated in responding to the 2010 four separate, sequential bombings of the Hilla Textile Company, to elicit the factors that could influence the risk perception of people. A storytelling data collection method was used to extract information and to examine how the communities perceive risks when responding to terrorist attacks despite the fact that they may be targeted by other sequential bombings.Primary and secondary data analysis shows that a number of factors influence the risk perception of people. By considering the similarities and their key characteristics, these factors have been broadly divided into three main themes, namely, knowledge about the hazard, personality factors, and membership in a cultural group. The empirical evidence of the study is closely aligned with the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). It shows that how attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behaviour control has influenced the behaviour of people when responding to such attacks. Accordingly, local government can use the findings of this study to improve their terrorism risk management.

Terrorist attacks and bank financial stability: evidence from MENA economies

This study examines the impact of terrorism on bank stability, represented by bank risk and financial performance. We consider banks from 14 countries located in the Middle East and North Africa region for the period 2010–2018 using both the three-stage least-square and the generalised method of moments. The results provide strong evidence that banks located in countries with high exposure to terrorist attack exhibit low financial stability, due to high bank risk (i.e., high credit and insolvency risk). However, these banks show high financial performance (i.e., high profitability and cost efficiency), on average. Our results also show differential impacts on bank stability for countries marked as more (less) exposed to risk of attacks. For banks located in high-income-generating countries, we find that exposure to terrorism is associated with low financial performance and high credit risk, which is the opposite case for low-income-generating countries. Our results also indicate high systemic risk for listed banks operating under high terrorism risk exposure.

Analysis of the impact of political isolation of ethnic groups on the growth of terrorism

The presented work examines terrorist violence at the subnational level, taking into account the fact that the regions of residence of politically excluded ethnic groups are exposed to a higher terrorist risk. Moreover, this risk may be exacerbated by the high population density of the region, the level of economic development and the type of political regime of the country. There is some reason to believe that the influence of political isolation may also be more likely to motivate cases of ethnic violence when this exclusion is combined with numerous local and country conditions that increase awareness of group competition and unequal distribution of socio-economic resources. The study uses geocoded incidents of terrorist attacks within States in combination with a set of data on ethnic groups' access to political power in the country and an additional set of control variables. The analysis focuses on the assessment of domestic terrorism incidents for 185 countries in 1970-2019. Logistic regression with random effects was used to verify the assumptions made. In general, it was found that ethnic political isolation is an important risk factor for local terrorist violence. It was also revealed that more densely populated and affluent regions are at much greater risk of violence if at least one excluded ethnic group is present in them. These trends are much more pronounced in democratic countries, in which cases of political isolation are deviations rather than the norm.