Sea Surface Temperature Tendency Research Articles

Extremely long-lived marine heatwave in South China Sea during summer 2020: Combined effects of the seasonal and intraseasonal variations

South China Sea (SCS) experienced an exceptionally long-lived marine heatwave (MHW) event in summer 2020, which broke the historical records in terms of its time duration since 1982. This long-lasting MHW was primarily attributed to the combined effects of the seasonal cycle (SC) and 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) components of anomalous atmospheric circulations. During the SC developing phase, the superimposed anticyclonic circulation regimes of the SC and 30–60-day ISO jointly contributed to the first warming sea surface temperature (SST) peak over the central SCS in July, via the combined effects of net downward shortwave radiation (SWR) and latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. In contrast, during the SC decaying phase, the SCS MHW-related warming SST tendency was mostly due to 30–60-day ISO signals. During the growth phase of ISO, the joint warming effect of the SWR and LHF anomalies was the dominant factor maintaining the SCS MHW. In the decaying phase of 30–60-day ISO, however, the second MHW-related warming peak around Beibu Gulf in September was mainly contributed by the sharply reduced LHF loss due to strong southwesterly anomalies over the northern SCS on the 30–60-day timescale. The varying SC component plays a crucial role in the occurrence and maintenance of MHWs, while the 30–60-day ISO can effectively regulate the development and pattern of SCS MHWs. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of the SC component, the 30–60-day ISO should also be considered for fully understanding the extreme MHW events.

The rate of information transfer as a measure of ocean–atmosphere interactions

Abstract. Exchanges of mass, momentum and energy between the ocean and atmosphere are of large importance in regulating the climate system. Here, we apply for the first time a relatively novel approach, the rate of information transfer, to quantify interactions between the ocean surface and the lower atmosphere over the period 1988–2017 at a monthly timescale. More specifically, we investigate dynamical dependencies between sea surface temperature (SST), SST tendency and turbulent heat flux in satellite observations. We find a strong two-way influence between SST and/or SST tendency and turbulent heat flux in many regions of the world, with the largest values in the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans, as well as in western boundary currents. The total number of regions with a significant influence by turbulent heat flux on SST and on SST tendency is reduced when considering the three variables (this case should be privileged, as it provides additional sources of information), while it remains large for the information transfer from SST and SST tendency to turbulent heat flux, suggesting an overall stronger ocean influence compared to the atmosphere. We also find a relatively strong influence by turbulent heat flux taken 1 month before on SST. Additionally, an increase in the magnitude of the rate of information transfer and in the number of regions with significant influence is observed when looking at interannual and decadal timescales compared to monthly timescales.

Role of ocean dynamics in the evolution of mixed-layer temperature in the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon

Earlier studies suggest that the mixed-layer (ML) temperature or sea surface temperature (SST) of the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon is determined primarily by air–sea fluxes. We use an oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) to show that oceanic processes also play a significant role. Model heat-budget computations show that horizontal and vertical advection, constituting the direct role of dynamics, contribute significantly to the SST tendency in the western bay. The eastern limit of this direct-role regime is determined by downwelling Rossby waves, which are forced largely from the equatorial Indian Ocean, but are modified by alongshore winds at the eastern boundary and Ekman pumping along their westward path across the bay. The current and, as a result, advection weaken behind the Rossby waves. To the east of the Rossby wavefront, the thermocline is deep, permitting a deeper ML, but the actual ML depth (MLD) depends on the wind speed, with salinity also playing a role in the northern bay. Yet, there is negligible change in the SST even when MLD changes significantly because the deep thermocline decouples the changes in MLD and SST. In contrast, the shallower thermocline in the western bay limits the potential MLD, leading to larger changes in SST. The upwelling (downwelling) Rossby wave essentially conditions the upper ocean by decreasing (increasing) the potential depth of the mixed layer. SST variation weakens only when the thermocline deepens during downwelling events, which occur later in the western bay because Rossby waves propagate westward. The significant, but subtle, role of the Rossby waves in decoupling the changes in MLD and SST via downwelling is indirect, unlike the direct role of advection estimated in a standard heat-budget computation, and has been largely ignored in earlier studies.

Oceanic drivers and empirical prediction of interannual rainfall variability in late summer over Northeast China

Northeast China (NEC) is located between the subtropical monsoon and temperate-frigid monsoon regions and exhibits two successive rainy seasons with different natures: the northeast cold vortex rainy season in early summer (May–June) and the monsoon rainy season in late summer (July–August). Summer rainfall over NEC (NECR) has a fundamental influence on society, yet its successful seasonal prediction remains a long-term scientific challenge to current dynamical models. The poor NECR prediction skill is partly attributed to the large NECR variability at both the interannual and interdecadal time scales. Here, we focus on the oceanic drivers of the late summer NECR variability and associated physical processes at interannual time scale. Then, we establish an empirical prediction model to predict the interannual variability of summer NECR at 1-month lead time (in June). The analysis of observations spanning 40 years (1963–2002) reveals three physically and synergistically influencing predictors of the late summer NECR interannual variability. Above-normal NECR is preceded in the previous spring by (a) warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical northern Indian Ocean, (b) a positive thermal contrast tendency in the tropical West–East Pacific SST, and (c) a positive tendency of the North Atlantic tripolar SST. These precursors enhance the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific and southerly anomalies over NEC in late summer, which are beneficial to enhancing NECR. An empirical prediction model built on these three predictors achieves a forecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.72 for 1961–2019, and a 17-year (2003–2019) independent forecast shows a significant TCC skill of 0.70. The skill is substantially higher than that of five state-of-the-art dynamical models and their ensemble mean for 1979–2019 (TCC = 0.24). These results suggest that the proposed empirical model is a meaningful approach for the prediction of NECR, although the dynamical prediction of NECR has considerable room for improvement.

Statistical prediction of Sri Lankan rainfall during October to December

Sri Lanka receives most rainfall during October to December (OND). Here we construct multiple linear regression models to forecast the OND Sri Lankan rainfall during 1979-2012 for lead times of 1 and 2 months. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between Sri Lankan OND rainfall and global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Three independent predictors were identified through partial least square regression method which includes the southern Atlantic SST tendency, southern Pacific SST tendency and western Pacific and Maritime Continent SST tendency at two different lead times. Three-year-out cross validation concludes that the multiple linear regression models can produce forecast the OND rainfall forecast at correlation coefficient skill of 0.69 and 0.68 for the 1 and 2 month lead times respectively. The physical processes associated with these three predictors show that they contribute to increase in OND rainfall of Sri Lanka.

How Does the Winter Jet Stream Affect Surface Temperature, Heat Flux, and Sea Ice in the North Atlantic?

AbstractThe role of the atmospheric jet stream in driving patterns of surface heat flux, changes in sea surface temperature, and sea ice fraction is explored for the winter North Atlantic. Seasonal time-scale ensemble hindcasts from the Met Office Hadley Centre are analyzed for each winter from 1980 to 2014, which for each year includes 40 ensemble members initialized at the start of November. The spread between ensemble members that develops during a season is interpreted to represent the ocean response to stochastic atmospheric variability. The seasonal coupling between the winter atmosphere and the ocean over much of the North Atlantic reveals anomalies in surface heat loss driving anomalies in the tendency of sea surface temperature. The atmospheric jet, defined either by its speed or latitude, strongly controls the winter pattern of air–sea latent and sensible heat flux anomalies, and subsequent sea surface temperature anomalies. On time scales of several months, the effect of jet speed is more pronounced than that of jet latitude on the surface ocean response, although the effect of jet latitude is important in altering the extent of the ocean subtropical and subpolar gyres. A strong jet or high jet latitude increases sea ice fraction over the Labrador Sea due to the enhanced transport of cold air from west Greenland, while sea ice fraction decreases along the east side of Greenland due either to warm air advection or a strong northerly wind along the east Greenland coast blowing surface ice away from the Fram Strait.

On the Emergence of the Atlantic Multidecadal SST Signal: A Key Role of the Mixed Layer Depth Variability Driven by North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractDespite its wide-ranging potential impacts, the exact cause of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation/variability (AMO/AMV) is far from settled. While the emergence of the AMO sea surface temperature (SST) pattern has been conventionally attributed to the ocean heat transport, a recent study showed that the atmospheric stochastic forcing is sufficient. In this study, we resolve this conundrum by partitioning the multidecadal SST tendency into a part caused by surface heat fluxes and another by ocean dynamics, using a preindustrial control simulation of a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. In the model, horizontal ocean heat advection primarily acts to warm the subpolar SST as in previous studies; however, when the vertical component is also considered, the ocean dynamics overall acts to cool the region. Alternatively, the heat flux term is primarily responsible for the subpolar North Atlantic SST warming, although the associated surface heat flux anomalies are upward as observed. Further decomposition of the heat flux term reveals that it is the mixed layer depth (MLD) deepening that makes the ocean less susceptible for cooling, thus leading to relative warming by increasing the ocean heat capacity. This role of the MLD variability in the AMO signature had not been addressed in previous studies. The MLD variability is primarily induced by the anomalous salinity transport by the Gulf Stream modulated by the multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation, with turbulent fluxes playing a secondary role. Thus, depending on how we interpret the MLD variability, our results support the two previously suggested frameworks, yet slightly modifying the previous notions.

Role of the Surface Boundary Conditions in Boreal Spring on the Interannual Variability of the Multistage Evolution of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractThe seasonal movement of the upper-level jet plays a key role in the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). However, it remains unresolved how interannual changes in surface boundary conditions can influence the upper-level flow over East Asia, thereby modulating the onset of the EASM. Here we capture the timing of multistage evolution over East Asia using the upper-level zonal wind in a two-phase linear regression model. In addition, we show the impact of two surface boundary conditions on the timing of the EASM onset related to the strength of the upper-level zonal wind: 1) eastern Eurasian snow cover and 2) western North Pacific (WNP) sea surface temperature (SST) tendency. The eddy heat fluxes induced by the enhanced eastern Eurasian snow cover develop an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the northwest, which causes anomalous warm southwesterly flow toward the north. These can make a reversal of the meridional temperature gradient, which results in the early monsoon onset via changes in the upper-level jet. The upper-level jet also responds to the SST tendency in April over the WNP via thermal wind balance and the resultant changes in transient eddy-induced heat transport. Our findings suggest potential sources for seasonal predictability in the interannual EASM onset dates.

Effects of monsoon onset vortex on heat budget in the mixed layer of the Bay of Bengal

We investigated the effects of monsoon onset vortex (MOV) on the mixed layer heat budget in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in spring 2003 using the reanalysis datasets. The results suggest that the solar radiation flux penetrating the mixed layer and the existence of barrier layer are both able to modulate the effects of MOV on the evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) in the BOB. Prior to the formation of BOB MOV, the local SST raised quickly due to mass of solar radiation reaching the sea surface under the clear-sky condition. Meanwhile, since the mixed layer was shallow before the onset of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), some solar radiation flux could penetrate to directly heat the deeper water, which partly offset the warming effect of shortwave radiation. On the other hand, the in-situ SST started to cool due to the upwelling of cold water when the MOV generated over the BOB, along with the rapidly increased surface wind speed and its resultant deeper mixed layer. As the MOV developed and moved northward, the SST tended to decrease remarkably because of the strong upward surface latent heat flux over the BOB ascribed to the wind-evaporation mechanism. However, the MOV-related precipitation brought more fresh water into the upper ocean to produce a thicker barrier layer, whose thermal barrier effect damped the cooling effect of entrainment upwelling on the decrease tendency of the BOB SST. In other words, the thermal barrier effect could slow down the decreasing trend of the BOB SST even after the onset of ASM, which facilitated the further enhancement of the MOV.

Insights into Decadal North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Variability from an Eddy-Permitting Coupled Climate Model

Abstract An ocean mixed layer heat budget methodology is used to investigate the physical processes determining subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) variability on decadal to multidecadal time scales using the state-of-the-art climate model HadGEM3-GC2. New elements include development of an equation for evolution of anomalous SST for interannual and longer time scales in a form analogous to that for OHC, parameterization of the diffusive heat flux at the base of the mixed layer, and analysis of a composite Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) event. Contributions to OHC and SST variability from two sources are evaluated: 1) net ocean–atmosphere heat flux and 2) all other processes, including advection, diffusion, and entrainment for SST. Anomalies in OHC tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal time scales with a clear relationship to the phase of the AMOC. AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies, which in turn lead OHC tendencies in both the eastern and western SPNA. OHC and SST variations in the SPNA on decadal time scales are dominated by AMOC variability because it controls variability of advection, which is shown to be the dominant term in the OHC budget. Lags between OHC and SST are traced to differences between the advection term for OHC and the advection–entrainment term for SST. The new results have implications for interpretation of variations in Atlantic heat uptake in the CMIP6 climate model assessment.

Revisiting the predictors for the long‐range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia with a focus on Pakistan

The predictors of the south Asian summer monsoon used in statistical long‐range forecasting by the Indian and Pakistan Meteorological Departments have, in recent decades, had their validity reassessed. The results of such studies, including this one, show that the relationships between numerous predictors and the monsoon rainfall have changed over time, and many predictors have lost or gained significance. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as a robust new predictor, having been found to exhibit a significant correlation with monsoon rainfall in northern Pakistan as well as with Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed on the Pakistan monsoon rainfall data in order to identify the dominant coupled modes of variability, on interannual timescales, for the classification of two sub‐regions of Pakistan. Overall, few predictors showed significant correlations with the monsoon rainfall across Pakistan. However, with respect to rainfall over northern Pakistan, significant correlations were found for the tropical Atlantic SST anomaly, equatorial southeast Indian Ocean SST anomaly and quasi‐biennial oscillation anomaly. With respect to rainfall over southern Pakistan, warm water volume anomaly, North Asia sea level pressure tendency and Nino3.4 SST tendency showed significant correlations. Although the predictability of Pakistan summer monsoon rainfall is low, a simple multiple linear regression model has nevertheless been developed for its prediction. The model has shown good predictive skill for the primary monsoon region of Pakistan

An Episodic Weakening in the Boreal Spring SST–Precipitation Relationship in the Western Tropical Pacific since the Late 1990s

Abstract We found that a positive sea surface temperature (SST)–precipitation relationship in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) during boreal spring, in which higher SSTs are associated with higher precipitation, episodically weakens from the late 1990s to the early 2010s. During 1980–98, warm SSTs induce positive precipitation and low pressure in the WTP. The associated enhanced convection dampens the initial warm SSTs by reflecting incoming solar radiation. The reduced incoming solar radiation into the ocean leads to a SST cooling tendency. In contrast, the associated southwesterly wind anomalies reduce oceanic mixing by decreasing the mean wind, contributing to an SST warming tendency, though relatively small. Therefore, the cloud–radiation effect is a dominant process of the negative SST tendency. By contrast, during 1999–2014, although an SST cooling tendency is similarly induced by warm SST anomalies, the cooling tendency is enhanced by anomalous ocean advection, as a result of enhanced easterly wind anomalies in the southern part of the WTP. This results in a weakening of a positive relationship of the SST and precipitation during 1999–2014. As such, the associated anomalous convective heating in the WTP during 1999–2014 is weak, changing the atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the midlatitude and surface air temperature anomalies in western North America and northeastern Eurasia.

Summer Intraseasonal Surface Heat Flux‐Sea Surface Temperature Relationship Over Northern Tropical Indo‐Western Pacific in Climate Models

AbstractThe present study documents the relationship between intraseasonal net surface heat flux (NHF, positive for downward flux) and sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the North Indian Ocean and tropical western North Pacific during May through September in climate models. A distinct NHF‐SST relationship is identified in the NCC.NorESM1‐M model. NHF has a weak correlation with the SST tendency but a large negative correlation with SST in the NCC.NorESM1‐M model, whereas NHF has a large positive correlation with the SST tendency and a weak correlation with SST in observations and some other climate models. The sea‐air humidity difference has a dominant contribution to latent heat flux variations in relation to a bias toward larger mean wind speed in the NCC.NorESM1‐M model. In contrast, surface wind speed overcomes the sea‐air humidity difference in contributing to latent heat flux variations due to a bias toward larger mean sea‐air humidity difference in the INM.inmcm4 model. Detailed analysis reveals different processes in intraseasonal SST variations in the South China Sea between the INM.inmcm4 and NCC.NorESM1‐M models. In the INM.inmcm4 model, atmosphere‐induced shortwave radiation and latent heat flux have a main contribution to the SST change. In the NCC.NorESM1‐M model, the SST change is mainly due to oceanic processes. The ocean‐induced positive SST anomalies increase evaporation and surface air humidity. This destabilizes the atmospheric boundary layer in favor of convection and reduced downward shortwave radiation. NHF has a damping effect on the SST change.

The 30–60-day Intraseasonal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea dur1ing May–September

This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the South China Sea (SCS) on the 30–60-day timescale during boreal summer (May–September). TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30–60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10–90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30–60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive (negative) SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies (southwesterlies). The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough–ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30–60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux (MNHF) contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the 30–60-day SST variability in the SCS.

Representation of Ocean-Atmosphere Processes Associated with Extended Monsoon Episodes over South Asia in CFSv2

In the present study, we analyze 30-years output from free run solutions of CFSv2 coupled model to assess the model’s representation of extended (>7 days) active and break monsoon episodes over south Asia. Process based diagnostics is applied to the individual and composite events to identify precursor signals in both ocean and atmospheric variables. Our examination suggests that CFSv2, like most coupled models, depict systematic biases in variables important for ocean-atmosphere interactions. Nevertheless, model solutions capture many aspects of monsoon extended break and active episodes realistically, encouraging us to apply process-based diagnostics. Diagnostics reveal that sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the northern Bay of Bengal where the climatological mixed-layer is thin, lead the in-situ precipitation anomalies by about 8 (10) days during extended active (break) episodes, and the precipitation anomalies over central India by 10-14 days. Mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates for a close correspondence between SST tendency and net surface heat flux (Q_net). MSE budgets indicate that horizontal moisture advection to be a coherent precursor signal (~10 days) during both extended break (dry advection) and active (moist advection) events. The lead timings in these precursor signals in CFSv2 solutions will be of potential use to monitor and predict extended monsoon episodes. Diagnostics, however, also indicate that for about 1/3 of the identified extended break and active episodes, inconsistencies in budget terms suggest precursor signals could lead to false alarms. Apart from false alarms, compared to observations, CFSv2 systematically simulates a greater number of extended monsoon active episodes.

Scale Dependence of Midlatitude Air–Sea Interaction

Abstract It has traditionally been thought that midlatitude sea surface temperature (SST) variability is predominantly driven by variations in air–sea surface heat fluxes (SHFs) associated with synoptic weather variability. Here it is shown that in regions marked by the highest climatological SST gradients and SHF loss to the atmosphere, the variability in SST and SHF at monthly and longer time scales is driven by internal ocean processes, termed here “oceanic weather.” This is shown within the context of an energy balance model of coupled air–sea interaction that includes both stochastic forcing for the atmosphere and ocean. The functional form of the lagged correlation between SST and SHF allows us to discriminate between variability that is driven by atmospheric versus oceanic weather. Observations show that the lagged functional relationship of SST–SHF and SST tendency–SHF correlation is indicative of ocean-driven SST variability in the western boundary currents (WBCs) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). By applying spatial and temporal smoothing, thereby dampening the signature SST anomalies generated by eddy stirring, it is shown that the oceanic influence on SST variability increases with time scale but decreases with increasing spatial scale. The scale at which SST variability in the WBCs and the ACC transitions from ocean to atmosphere driven occurs at scales less than 500 km. This transition scale highlights the need to resolve mesoscale eddies in coupled climate models to adequately simulate the variability of air–sea interaction. Away from strong SST fronts the lagged functional relationships are indicative of the traditional paradigm of atmospherically driven SST variability.

Contributions of Surface Heat Fluxes and Oceanic Processes to Tropical SST Changes: Seasonal and Regional Dependence

Abstract The present study employs six surface heat flux datasets and three ocean assimilation products to assess the relative contributions of surface heat fluxes and oceanic processes to the sea surface temperature (SST) change in the tropical oceans. Large differences are identified in the major terms of the heat budget equation. The largest discrepancies among different datasets appear in the contribution of vertical advection. The heat budget is nearly balanced in the shortwave-radiation- and horizontal-advection-dominant cases but not balanced in some of the latent-heat-flux- and vertical-advection-dominant cases. The contributions of surface heat fluxes and ocean advections to the SST tendency display remarkable seasonal and regional dependence. The contribution of surface heat fluxes covers a large geographical area. The oceanic processes dominate the SST tendency in the near-equatorial regions with large values but small spatial scales. In the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, the SST tendency is governed by the dynamic and thermodynamic processes, respectively, while a wide variety of processes contribute to the SST tendency in the Indian Ocean. Several regions have been selected to illustrate the dominant contributions of individual terms to the SST tendency in different seasons. The seasonality and regionality of the interannual air–sea relationship indicate a physical connection with the mean state.

Feedback of 10–20-day intraseasonal oscillations on seasonal mean SST in the tropical Western North Pacific during boreal spring through fall

The present study documents the factors for year-to-year changes in the intensity of 10–20-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) and investigates the feedback of the 10–20-day ISO intensity on seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) change in the tropical western North Pacific during boreal spring through fall. An analysis of local correlation reveals a significant negative correlation of the 10–20-day ISO intensity and the seasonal mean SST tendency in the tropical western North Pacific during spring, summer, and fall, suggesting a plausible feedback of the ISO intensity on seasonal mean SST anomaly. The 10–20-day ISO intensity change over the tropical western North Pacific is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through modulation of vertical shear of zonal winds, lower-level moisture, and upward motion. Due to the phase dependence of location of these ENSO-induced background field changes, the ISO intensity is subject to ENSO influence in different regions during the three seasons. The feedback of the 10–20-day ISO intensity on local seasonal mean SST change in the tropical western North Pacific is demonstrated by separating latent heat flux anomalies into components on different time scales. The ISO-induced latent heat flux anomalies may accumulate in a season and overcome interannual anomalies due to seasonal mean changes. Thus, the ISO-induced surface heat flux change may play an important role in the seasonal mean SST anomaly in the tropical western North Pacific.

UK′37 temperature estimates from Eemian marine sediments in the southern coast of Hainan Island, tropical China

This study concerns high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) changes for the Eemian interglacial period reconstructed from the southern coast of Hainan Island, China. The lower marine unit in the sediment core is composed of monotonous mud (31m thick), dated to be from the Eemian interglacial period or lower part of marine isotope stage 5 (MIS 5), determined by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). The high sedimentation rate and the richness of organic matter and marine fossils provide good opportunity for the study of palaeo-environments in the northern margin of the South China Sea (SCS). Sediment grain-size, foraminifer, sediment color index and long-chain alkenone were used to reveal the near-shore sedimentary environments and temperature at millennial-scale. Specifically, a high-resolution UK′37-SST record was reconstructed for the Eemian interglacial period. The new evidence in northwestern margin of SCS shows that the maximum value of SST during the Eemian interglacial is approximately 29°C and the lowest is 26.5°C. The trend of decreasing SST from 29°C throughout the marine sequence is consistent with the variations in sediment grain size, reflecting the cooling trend of SST and sea-level lowering tendency during the last interglacial period. This new Eemian SST result agrees with other records in the region of SCS, showing a coherent descending trend, but spatial heterogeneity exists in timing and amplitude. The insolation changes might be the main force for initiating the SST evolution during the penultimate interglacial period.

Retrospective seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over West Central and Peninsular India in the past 142 years

Prediction of Indian summer (June–September) rainfall on regional scales remains an open issue. The operational predictions of West Central Indian summer rainfall (WCI-R) and Peninsular Indian summer rainfall (PI-R) made by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had no skills during 2004–2012. This motivates the present study aiming at better understanding the predictability sources and physical processes governing summer rainfall variability over these two regions. Analysis of 133 year data reveal that although the lower boundary forcing that associated with enhanced WCI-R and PI-R featured a similar developing La-Nina and “east high west low” sea-level pressure (SLP) dipole pattern across the Indo-Pacific, the anomalous high sea surface temperature (SST) over the northern Indian Ocean and weak low pressure over northern Asia tended to enhance PI-R but reduce WCI-R. Based on our understanding of physical linkages with the predictands, we selected four and two causative predictors for predictions of the WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The intensified summer WCI-R is preceded by (a) Indian Ocean zonal dipole-like SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (b) tropical Pacific zonal dipole SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (c) central Pacific meridional dipole SST tendency (north-cooling and south-warming), and (d) decreasing SLP tendency over northern Asia in the previous season. The enhanced PI-R was lead by the central-eastern Pacific cooling and 2-m temperature cooling tendency east of Lake Balkhash in the previous seasons. These causative processes linking the predictors and WCI-R and PI-R are supported by ensemble numerical experiments using a coupled climate model. For the period of 1871–2012, the physics-based empirical (P-E) prediction models built on these predictors result in cross-validated forecast temporal correlation coefficient skills of 0.55 and 0.47 for WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The independent forecast skill is significantly higher than the skill of operational seasonal forecast made by the IMD for the period of 2004–2012. These prediction models offer a tool for seasonal prediction and their retrospective forecast skills provide an estimation of the lower bound of the predictability for WCI-R and PI-R.