How Does the Winter Jet Stream Affect Surface Temperature, Heat Flux, and Sea Ice in the North Atlantic?

Abstract

AbstractThe role of the atmospheric jet stream in driving patterns of surface heat flux, changes in sea surface temperature, and sea ice fraction is explored for the winter North Atlantic. Seasonal time-scale ensemble hindcasts from the Met Office Hadley Centre are analyzed for each winter from 1980 to 2014, which for each year includes 40 ensemble members initialized at the start of November. The spread between ensemble members that develops during a season is interpreted to represent the ocean response to stochastic atmospheric variability. The seasonal coupling between the winter atmosphere and the ocean over much of the North Atlantic reveals anomalies in surface heat loss driving anomalies in the tendency of sea surface temperature. The atmospheric jet, defined either by its speed or latitude, strongly controls the winter pattern of air–sea latent and sensible heat flux anomalies, and subsequent sea surface temperature anomalies. On time scales of several months, the effect of jet speed is more pronounced than that of jet latitude on the surface ocean response, although the effect of jet latitude is important in altering the extent of the ocean subtropical and subpolar gyres. A strong jet or high jet latitude increases sea ice fraction over the Labrador Sea due to the enhanced transport of cold air from west Greenland, while sea ice fraction decreases along the east side of Greenland due either to warm air advection or a strong northerly wind along the east Greenland coast blowing surface ice away from the Fram Strait.