Temporal Climate Variability Research Articles

Predicting Indirect Effects of Predator–Prey Interactions

Predicting the effects of climate change on species and communities remains a pre-eminent challenge for biologists. Critical among this is understanding the indirect effects of climate change, which arise when the direct, physiological effects of climate on one species change the outcome of its interaction with a second species, altering the success of the second species. A diverse array of approaches to predicting indirect effects exists from mechanistic models, which attempt to build-up from physiological changes to ecological consequences, to ecological models that focus solely on the ecological scale. Here I review studies of the indirect effects of temperature on two predator-prey systems in rocky intertidal habitats. Laboratory and field studies have shown that temperature can indirectly affect interactions through both physiological and behavioral changes in predator and prey, but no model yet captures the full range of these effects. The three main categories of changes are metabolic rate effects, stress effects, and behavioral avoidance. Mechanistic models best capture the first two of these three dynamics, while ecological models have focused mainly on the last two. The challenge remains to correctly identify a species' vulnerability to climate change, which differs from its physiological sensitivity. The best approach may be to use detailed physiological-scale studies of indirect effect in a few systems to ground truth simpler models that can be applied more broadly. Model development and testing is also hampered by the small number of field studies of indirect effects in natural systems, particularly studies that examine natural temporal or spatial variation in climate.

Estimating Net Primary Productivity and Carbon Inputs by Soybean Crops in Argentina

ABSTRACTMonitoring crop net primary productivity (NPP) and its proportion returned to soil in the form of carbon (C) input is vital to better understand the ecological responses to environmental and anthropogenic changes. However, quantification of NPP and C inputs from cropping systems at a regional scale is challenging due to the temporal and spatial variability of soils, climate, and management practices. The aim of this study was to estimate (i) the NPP from soybean crop [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] and (ii) the C inputs from soybean residues into soils of the Pampas and Extra-Pampas regions of Argentina between 1993 and 2005 using a simple approach based on the crop yield census records, a C budget equation, and crop-specific conversion factors at regional scale. Soybean NPP (t ha−1 year−1) at a regional scale was estimated by grain yields and harvested areas reported in the long-term (1993–2005) National database for several districts within each province. The mean annual soybean NPP in the Pampas was 0.3 t ha−1 higher (P < 0.05) than in the Extra-Pampas, resulting in a higher C input from soybean residues of 0.4 t ha−1 year−1 in the Pampas region. Due to improved cultivars and higher nutrient inputs in the Pampas region, the mean NPP and C inputs increased by about 25% from 1999 to 2005. Crop NPP and C inputs from residues into soils play a major role in C dynamics and should be considered for further studies at different scales to understand soil organic C modifications through agricultural changes.

The application of high-resolution atmospheric modelling to weather and climate variability in vineyard regions

&lt;p&gt;Grapevines are highly sensitive to environmental conditions, with variability in weather and climate (particularly temperature) having a significant influence on wine quality, quantity and style. Improved knowledge of spatial and temporal variations in climate and their impact on grapevine response allows better decision-making to help maintain a sustainable wine industry in the context of medium to long term climate change. This paper describes recent research into the application of mesoscale weather and climate models that aims to improve our understanding of climate variability at high spatial (1 km and less) and temporal (hourly) resolution within vineyard regions of varying terrain complexity. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the weather and climate in the complex terrain of the Marlborough region of New Zealand. The performance of the WRF model in reproducing the temperature variability across vineyard regions is assessed through comparison with automatic weather stations. Coupling the atmospheric model with bioclimatic indices and phenological models (e.g. Huglin, cool nights, Grapevine Flowering Véraison model) also provides useful insights into grapevine response to spatial variability of climate during the growing season, as well as assessment of spatial variability in the optimal climate conditions for specific grape varieties.&lt;/p&gt;

The application of high-resolution atmospheric modelling to weather and climate variability in vineyard regions

Grapevines are highly sensitive to environmental conditions, with variability in weather and climate (particularly temperature) having a significant influence on wine quality, quantity and style. Improved knowledge of spatial and temporal variations in climate and their impact on grapevine response allows better decision-making to help maintain a sustainable wine industry in the context of medium to long term climate change. This paper describes recent research into the application of mesoscale weather and climate models that aims to improve our understanding of climate variability at high spatial (1 km and less) and temporal (hourly) resolution within vineyard regions of varying terrain complexity. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the weather and climate in the complex terrain of the Marlborough region of New Zealand. The performance of the WRF model in reproducing the temperature variability across vineyard regions is assessed through comparison with automatic weather stations. Coupling the atmospheric model with bioclimatic indices and phenological models (e.g. Huglin, cool nights, Grapevine Flowering Véraison model) also provides useful insights into grapevine response to spatial variability of climate during the growing season, as well as assessment of spatial variability in the optimal climate conditions for specific grape varieties.

Integrating viability and fecundity selection to illuminate the adaptive nature of genetic clines.

Genetically based trait variation across environmental gradients can reflect adaptation to local environments. However, natural populations that appear well‐adapted often exhibit directional, not stabilizing, selection on ecologically relevant traits. Temporal variation in the direction of selection could lead to stabilizing selection across multiple episodes of selection, which might be overlooked in short‐term studies that evaluate relationships of traits and fitness under only one set of conditions. Furthermore, nonrandom mortality prior to trait expression can bias inferences about trait evolution if viability selection opposes fecundity selection. Here, we leveraged fitness and trait data to test whether phenotypic clines are genetically based and adaptive, whether temporal variation in climate imposes stabilizing selection, and whether viability selection acts on adult phenotypes. We monitored transplants of the subalpine perennial forb, Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), in common gardens at two elevations over 2–3 years that differed in drought intensity. We quantified viability, and fecundity fitness components for four heritable traits: specific leaf area, integrated water‐use efficiency, height at first flower, and flowering phenology. Our results indicate that genetic clines are maintained by selection, but their expression is context dependent, as they do not emerge in all environments. Moreover, selection varied spatially and temporally. Stabilizing selection was most pronounced when we integrated data across years. Finally, viability selection prior to trait expression targeted adult phenotypes (age and size at flowering). Indeed, viability selection for delayed flowering opposed fecundity selection for accelerated flowering; this result demonstrates that neglecting to account for viability selection could lead to inaccurate conclusions that populations are maladapted. Our results suggest that reconciling clinal trait variation with selection requires data collected across multiple spatial scales, time frames, and life‐history stages.

Temporal changes in the climate sensitivity of Norway spruce and European beech along an elevation gradient in Central Europe

Norway spruce has experienced unprecedented forest declines in recent decades, leading to extensive salvage logging. Currently, because of the conversion of conifer forests into more natural mixed forests in Central Europe, spruce has begun to be replaced, mainly by European beech. The frequently discussed changing climate has a crucial effect on the vitality of both species. To improve our understanding of spruce and beech responses to climate change, including more frequent temperature and drought extremes, we investigated the impact of temporal climate variability on the growth of these species along an elevation gradient. In total, 79 spruce and 90 beech trees were used to build species-specific tree-ring width chronologies representing the altitudinal range in which both species grow (450, 650, 800, and 950m asl) under the conditions of the Czech Republic. The climate–growth relationship indicates strong dependence of spruce and beech tree-ring growth on spring temperature (Mar–May) at all sites and summer (Jun–Aug) water availability at lower altitudes. Significant temporal shifts in the climate–growth relationships of both species indicate an increasing negative effect of summer temperature and positive effect of water availability in summer. The increasing drought and temperature sensitivity of both species suggest a significant impact of the predicted climate change on such forest ecosystems. Discussion emphasizes the current importance of adaptive forest management strategies.

Temporal variability in the way local habitat affects duck population growth

AbstractClimate change is expected to lead to greater temporal climatic variability across broad spatial extents. A potential consequence is that shifts in climatic conditions might alter how local habitat affects the population growth of animals dependent on those habitats for at least part of their life cycle. We tested whether such a phenomenon occurred when the North American Prairie Pothole Region transitioned through periods of wet and dry conditions by modeling the population growth of seven duck species over 52 years (1961–2012). We found that the influence of local habitat quality—indexed by wetland availability—on duck population growth varied in magnitude and direction on an annual basis. While the effect of wetlands was relatively small in most years, there were some years in which wetlands strongly affected duck population growth in both positive and negative directions (e.g., negative in 2002 and positive in 2008). Contrary to our expectation, inter‐annual variability in the effect of wetlands on duck population growth did not depend on regional precipitation. We also found that for two species—American Wigeon (Anas americana) and Green‐winged Teal (A. carolinensis)—duck population growth in the presence of wetlands rarely differed from what would be expected solely under density dependence. Our study is the first to demonstrate that the effect of local habitat on population growth varies over time even if the cause of that variation remains unexplained. Consequently, any study that attempts to identify a species’ critical habitat using time series abundance data must consider that local relationships are non‐stationary. More complicated measures of climate change may reveal how local drivers of population growth depend on broader temporal climatic patterns.

Joint palaeoclimate reconstruction from pollen data via forward models and climate histories

We present a method and software for reconstructing palaeoclimate from pollen data with a focus on accounting for and reducing uncertainty. The tools we use include: forward models, which enable us to account for the data generating process and hence the complex relationship between pollen and climate; joint inference, which reduces uncertainty by borrowing strength between aspects of climate and slices of the core; and dynamic climate histories, which allow for a far richer gamut of inferential possibilities. Through a Monte Carlo approach we generate numerous equally probable joint climate histories, each of which is represented by a sequence of values of three climate dimensions in discrete time, i.e. a multivariate time series. All histories are consistent with the uncertainties in the forward model and the natural temporal variability in climate. Once generated, these histories can provide most probable climate estimates with uncertainty intervals. This is particularly important as attention moves to the dynamics of past climate changes. For example, such methods allow us to identify, with realistic uncertainty, the past century that exhibited the greatest warming. We illustrate our method with two data sets: Laguna de la Roya, with a radiocarbon dated chronology and hence timing uncertainty; and Lago Grande di Monticchio, which contains laminated sediment and extends back to the penultimate glacial stage. The procedure is made available via an open source R package, Bclim, for which we provide code and instructions.

Effects of common raven and coyote removal and temporal variation in climate on greater sage-grouse nesting success

Predator removal has been simultaneously proposed and criticized as a mitigation measure for low reproductive rates of prey species, including greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter “sage-grouse”). Depredation of sage-grouse nests can limit their productivity. In Wyoming, lethal removal of common ravens (Corvus corax: hereafter “ravens”) and coyotes (Canis latrans) has been conducted by USDA/APHIS/Wildlife Services (WS) for the protection of livestock. During 2008–2011, we evaluated sage-grouse nest success in study sites (1) where WS initiated a raven removal program, (2) WS removed coyotes, and (3) WS did not manipulate ravens and/or coyotes. Precipitation and temperature were analyzed individually and as interactive effects with coyote removal numbers as sources of annual variation in nest success. Over the course of our study, raven densities decreased at study sites with WS raven removal, while sage-grouse nest success in those study sites was higher during years with reduced raven density. Temperature effects on nest success were dependent on timing with successful nests having cooler temperatures prior to the nesting season (conditions promoting water retention and grass growth) and warmer temperatures the week before nest fate (conducive to degradation of sage-grouse odorants used by mammalian predators). Lower nest success was associated with more lethally removed coyotes interacting with greater precipitation suggesting mesopredator release. Raven removal may have a place in sage-grouse management as an interim mitigation measure when sage-grouse populations are subjected to high densities of ravens. However, long-term solutions are necessary, such as reducing supplemental food sources and perch structures used by ravens.

Yield gap analysis of rainfed wheat demonstrates local to global relevance

SUMMARYAustralia has a role to play in future global food security as it contributes 0·12 of global wheat exports. How much more can it contribute with current technology and varieties? The present paper seeks to quantify the gap between water-limited yield potential (Yw) and farmer yields (Ya) for wheat in Australia by implementing a new protocol developed by the Global Yield Gap and Water Productivity Atlas (GYGA) project. Results of past Australian yield gap studies are difficult to compare with studies in other countries because they were conducted using a variety of methods and at a range of scales. The GYGA project protocols were designed to facilitate comparisons among countries through the application of a consistent yet flexible methodology. This is the first implementation of GYGA protocols in a country with the high spatial and temporal climatic variability that exists in Australia.The present paper describes the application of the GYGA protocol to the whole Australian grain zone to derive estimates of rainfed wheat yield gap. The Australian grain zone was partitioned into six key agro-climatic zones (CZs) defined by the GYGA Extrapolation Domain (GYGA-ED) zonation scheme. A total of 22 Reference Weather Stations (RWS) were selected, distributed among the CZs to represent the entire Australian grain zone. The Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) Wheat crop model was used to simulate Yw of wheat crops for major soil types at each RWS from 1996 to 2010. Wheat varieties, agronomy and distribution of wheat cropping were held constant over the 15-year period. Locally representative dominant soils were selected for each RWS and generic sowing rules were specified based on local expertise. Actual yield (Ya) data were sourced from national agricultural data sets. To upscale Ya and Yw values from RWS to CZs and then to national scale, values were weighted according to the area of winter cereal cropping within RWS buffer zones. The national yield gap (Yg = Yw–Ya) and relative yield (Y% = 100 × Ya/Yw) were then calculated from the weighted values.The present study found that the national Yg was 2·0 tonnes (t)/ha and Y% was 47%. The analysis was extended to consider factors contributing to the yield gap. It was revealed that the RWS 15-year average Ya and Yw were strongly correlated (R2 = 0·76) and that RWS with higher Yw had higher Yg. Despite variable seasonal conditions, Y% was relatively stable over the 15 years. For the 22 RWS, average Yg correlated positively and strongly with average annual rainfall amount, but surprisingly it correlated poorly with RWS rainfall variability. Similarly, Y% correlated negatively but less strongly (R2 = 0·33) with RWS average annual rainfall, and correlated poorly with RWS rainfall variability, which raises questions about how Australian farmers manage climate risk. Interestingly a negative relationship was found between Yg and variability of Yw for the 22 RWS (R2 = 0·66), and a positive relationship between Y% and Yw variability (R2 = 0·23), which suggests that farmers in lower yielding, more variable sites are achieving yields closer to Yw. The Yg estimates appear to be quite robust in the context of estimates from other Australian studies, adding confidence to the validity of the GYGA protocol. Closing the national yield gap so that Ya is 0·80 of Yw, which is the level of Yg closure achieved consistently by the most progressive Australian farmers, would increase the average annual wheat production (20·9 million t in 1996/07 to 2010/11) by an estimated 15·3 million t, which is a 72% increase. This indicates substantial potential for Australia to increase wheat production on existing farmland areas using currently available crop varieties and farming practices and thus make a substantial contribution to achieving future global food security.

Spatial and temporal variations in denudation rates derived from cosmogenic nuclides in four European fluvial terrace sequences

The denudation of landscapes is affected by temporal and spatial variations in tectonics, climate, and vegetation. However, deciphering the contributions of these different processes has proven challenging. In this study, cosmogenic nuclide-derived modern and paleo catchment-wide denudation rates in four European rivers are investigated. We present 12 new and 4 recalculated cosmogenic nuclide-derived denudation rates from modern river sediments and 14 paleo-denudation rates from terraces deposited over the last 2 Ma. The catchments studied are located in regions with minimal Quaternary tectonic activity and span different climates over 12o latitude. Results indicate that modern denudation rates range between 16 ±11 and 51 ±7 mm/ka with no clear latitudinal variation. Modern denudation rates are compared with catchment geomorphic indices including slope, fluvial steepness index, and relief. The denudation rates correlate better to catchment topographic indices (R2 ≈ 0.4) rather than climate. Paleo-denudation rates range from 8 ±7 to 56 ±7 mm/ka and are associated with a possible increase in the average paleo-denudation rates over the past 2 Ma. Taken together, the results indicate that quantification of catchment-wide denudation rates over long (Quaternary) time scales because of climate change is difficult. Future work to study climate influence on denudation rates should focus on the successes of previous work that document transient denudation rates over shorter and more recent time scales, i.e., from the Last Glacial Maximum to present.

Continuous measurement of soil carbon efflux with Forced Diffusion (FD) chambers in a tundra ecosystem of Alaska

Soil is a significant source of CO2 emission to the atmosphere, and this process is accelerating at high latitudes due to rapidly changing climates. To investigate the sensitivity of soil CO2 emissions to high temporal frequency variations in climate, we performed continuous monitoring of soil CO2 efflux using Forced Diffusion (FD) chambers at half-hour intervals, across three representative Alaskan soil cover types with underlying permafrost. These sites were established during the growing season of 2015, on the Seward Peninsula of western Alaska. Our chamber system is conceptually similar to a dynamic chamber, though FD is more durable and water-resistant and consumes less power, lending itself to remote deployments. We first conducted methodological tests, testing different frequencies of measurement, and did not observe a significant difference between collecting data at 30-min and 10-min measurement intervals (averaged half-hourly) (p<0.001).Temperature and thaw depth, meanwhile, are important parameters in influencing soil carbon emission. At the study sites, we observed cumulative soil CO2 emissions of 62.0, 126.3, and 133.5gCm−2 for the growing period, in sphagnum, lichen, and tussock, respectively, corresponding to 83.8, 63.7, and 79.6% of annual carbon emissions. Growing season soil carbon emissions extrapolated over the region equated to 0.17±0.06 MgC over the measurement period. This was 47% higher than previous estimates from coarse-resolution manual chamber sampling, presumably because it better captured high efflux events. This finding demonstrates how differences in measurement method and frequency can impact interpretations of seasonal and annual soil carbon budgets. We conclude that annual CO2 efflux-measurements using FD chamber networks would be an effective means for quantifying growing and non-growing season soil carbon budgets, with optimal pairing with time-lapse imagery for tracking local and regional changes in environment and climate in a warming Arctic.

Long-term variability of the leading seasonal modes of rainfall in south-eastern Australia

Abstract Knowledge of temporal and spatial variability of climate and rainfall can improve agriculture production and can help to manage risks caused by climate variability. Available high-quality monthly rainfall data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 1907–2011 was used to investigate the leading seasonal mode of the long-term rainfall variability over south-eastern and eastern Australia. Spatio-temporal variations of seasonal rainfall and their connection to oceanic-atmospheric predictors were analysed. The links between the first two Principal Components of rainfall of each season with lagged Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) were season-dependent. The relationship between these climatic indices changed within both inter-seasonal and decadal time scales. Spring and winter rainfalls were continuously positively correlated with lagged (SOI). However, summer rainfall variations indicated negative correlations with lagged SOI which increase from 1970. The correlations between lagged SOI and autumn variations were weak and change to a stronger relationship from 1990. Correlations between lagged (IOD) which varied across all seasons have recently been increasing. Variations in rainfall across all seasons were highly correlated with Southern Annular Mode (SAM) with different signs. Overall, the relationship between predictors and seasonal rainfall has changed after 1970. The results of running correlations between leading modes of seasonal rainfall and lagged SOI, SAM, and IOD indices indicates non-stationary in these links. The relationships of climatic indices and leading modes of seasonal rainfall changed since 1970, with stronger evidence in case of IOD. Recent changes in the relationships between climatic indices and rainfall need to be considered in climate prediction systems. The results of this study suggests that improvement in statistical regional rainfall forecast system with fixed climatic indices for each season and region is achievable by using suitable seasonal and regional climatic indices.

Evaluating predictive performance of sensor configurations in wind studies around buildings

A great challenge associated with urban growth is to design for energy efficient and healthy built environments. Exploiting the potential for natural ventilation in buildings might improve pedestrian comfort and lower cooling loads, particularly in warm and tropical climates. As a result, predicting wind behavior around naturally ventilated buildings has become important and one of the most common prediction approaches is computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. While accurate wind prediction is essential, simulation is complex and predictions are often inconsistent with field measurements. Discrepancies are due to the large uncertainties associated with modeling assumptions, as well as the high spatial and temporal climatic variability that influences sensor data. This paper proposes metrics to estimate the expected predictive performance of sensor configurations and assesses their usefulness in improving simulation predictions. The evaluations are based on the premise that measurement data are best used for falsifying model instances whose predictions are inconsistent with the data. The potential of the predictive performance metrics is demonstrated using full-scale high-rise buildings in Singapore. The metrics are applied to assess previously proposed sensor configurations. Results show that the performance metrics successfully evaluate the robustness of sensor configurations with respect to reducing uncertainty of wind predictions at other unmeasured locations.

Radiative analysis of global mean temperature trends in the middle atmosphere: Effects of non-locality and secondary absorption bands

In this paper, we provide a refined and extended assignment of past and future temperature changes relative to previous analyses and describe and evaluate the relevance of vertical coupling and non-linear and secondary radiative mechanisms for the interpretation of climatic temperature variations in the middle atmosphere. Because of their nature, the latter mechanisms are not adequately accounted for in most regression analyses of temperature trends as a function of local constituent variations. These mechanisms are examined using (1) globally averaged profiles from transient simulations with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances and (2) a one-dimensional radiative-equilibrium model forced using the diagnosed global mean changes in radiatively active constituents as derived from the CMAM model runs. The conditions during the periods 1975 to 1995 and 2010 to 2040 (during which the rates of change in ozone and CO2 differ) provide a suitable contrast for the role of the non-linear and non-local mechanisms being evaluated in this paper to be clearly differentiated and evaluated. Vertical coupling of radiative transfer effects and the influence of secondary absorption bands are important enough to render the results of multiple linear regression analyses between the temperature response and constituent changes misleading. These effects are evaluated in detail using the 1D radiative-equilibrium model using profiles from the CMAM runs as inputs. In order to explain the differences in the CMAM temperature trends prior to and after 2000 these other radiative effects must be considered in addition to local changes in the radiatively active species. The middle atmosphere temperature cools in response to CO2 and water vapor increases, but past and future trends are modulated by ozone changes.

Phenological shifts in climatic response of secondary growth allow Juniperus sabina L. to cope with altitudinal and temporal climate variability

The long-term persistence of Mediterranean high mountain flora is challenged by global warming. Understanding plant responses to different climatic drivers along altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to predict the response of Mediterranean mountain systems to the ongoing increase in drought intensity and severity. We selected the prostrate shrub Juniperus sabina L. as a model species and explored its growth response to climatic variability over the last six decades through dendrochronological methods at four sites along a 750m altitudinal gradient. Secondary growth was maximal at lower altitudes, where growing seasons are longer. Water availability was the main factor controlling secondary growth variability along the whole gradient, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with altitude. Earlier and stronger signals were detected in lower sites, where a combination with late summer signals suggested the existence of a second growth pulse in response to longer growing seasons. J. sabina adjusted its secondary growth to the changing climatic conditions by shifting the timing of its climatic response to favorable climatic windows, with earlier responses to spring rainfall in lower sites and an expanded growing season at the highest site during the second half of the study period. Our results show that at least some Mediterranean plants can grow faster at the drier edge of their range even under intense climate pressure, indicating that the response to drought stress may be highly idiosyncratic. The plastic nature of J. sabina secondary growth combined with its role as a nurse plant in Mediterranean mountains may be key to maintaining the high diversity levels of these particular ecosystems.

Spatial and temporal variations in solar climate of the earth in the present epoch

The results of studying the spatial–temporal variability of the solar climate of the Earth in the present epoch are given with account for periodic perturbations of its orbital motion and the inclination of its axis of rotation due to precession and nutation. Based on the calculations carried out, specific features of temporal variability of the solar radiation coming to the Earth (in the absence of atmosphere) and peculiarities of its spatial distribution over the surface of the Earth’s ellipsoid are determined.

Does the stress‐gradient hypothesis hold water? Disentangling spatial and temporal variation in plant effects on soil moisture in dryland systems

Summary The nature of the relationship between water limitation and facilitation has been one of the most contentious debates surrounding the stress‐gradient hypothesis (SGH), which states that plant‐plant interactions shift from competition to facilitation with increasing environmental stress. We take a closer look at the potential role of soil moisture in mediating plant‐plant interaction outcomes by assessing effects of climate and soil texture on plant modulation of soil moisture. Using an empirically‐parameterized soil moisture model, we simulated soil moisture dynamics beneath shrubs and in un‐vegetated coarse and fine soils for 1000 sites in the Western United States with &lt;700 mm mean annual precipitation. This threshold reflects the transition from dryland (&lt;600 mm precipitation) to mesic ecosystems. Positive effects of shrubs on shallow soil moisture (i.e. the difference between shrub and interspace soil moisture) decreased along the aridity gradient when long‐term average conditions were considered, contrary to expectations based on the SGH. Negative effects of shrubs on deeper soil moisture also increased with aridity. However, when extreme years were considered, positive effects of shrub on soil moisture were greatest at intermediate points along the spatial aridity gradient, consistent with a hump‐backed model of plant‐plant interactions. When viewed through time within a site, shrub effects on shallow soil moisture were positively related to precipitation, with more complex relationships exhibited in deeper soils Taken together, the results of this simulation study suggest that plant effects on soil moisture are predictable based on relatively general relationships between precipitation inputs and differential evaporation and transpiration rates between plant and interspace microsites that are largely driven by temperature. In particular, this study highlights the importance of differentiating between temporal and spatial variation in weather and climate, respectively, in determining plant effects on available soil moisture. Rather than focusing on the somewhat coarse‐scale predictions of the SGH, it may be more beneficial to explicitly incorporate plant effects on soil moisture into predictive models of plant‐plant interaction outcomes in drylands.

Climate changes during the Early–Middle Triassic transition in the E. Iberian plate and their palaeogeographic significance in the western Tethys continental domain

Until recently the climate of the Early–Middle Triassic at low latitudes was broadly considered as generally temperate-warm with no major climate oscillations. This work examines the climate of this period through a detailed study of the sedimentary, plant, soil and mineral records of continental rocks (Buntsandstein facies) in eastern Iberian basins. Our findings indicate temporal climate variations for these near equator (10°–14°N) regions and unveil the significance of such variations in the southern Laurasian domain.The climate of Iberia's Early Triassic was mainly dominated by alternating brief (<0.4ma) arid and semi-arid climate periods, with two main arid periods documented at the end of the Smithian and middle Spathian. However, an initial short subhumid to semi-arid period was also observed in the late Spathian. Remarkably, this latter period appears just after an unconformity related to the tectonically induced Hardegsen Event in western Europe. It is also of interest that this short subhumid climate period is concurrent with the beginning of faunal and floral recovery in the basins examined. The Early Triassic ended again with a short very arid period.Although the beginning of the Anisian (Aegean) was represented by alternating arid and semi-arid to subhumid intervals, during the Bithynian and Pelsonian clearly wetter climates are recorded by the succession consisting of alternating semi-arid to semi-humid intervals. This general tendency was interrupted by three short but marked intervals, two humid intervals in the late Bithynian, and one arid period near the Bithynian/Pelsonian boundary.Iberia was crossed by prominent irregular highs separating marked corridors or isolated areas. This palaeogeography, prevailing since Variscan tectonics, clearly conditioned dominant climates and their geographical distribution. No clear climate belts developed in these conditions. However, isolated internal climate zones separated by elevated areas are identified. This palaeogeographic configuration and the low latitudinal position of Iberia determined central Iberia highs in the southernmost border of Laurasia, beyond which more humid conditions clearly extended towards the equator reaching the present-day Moroccan Meseta and Argana Basin.

Impacts of weather on long‐term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six data sets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.