Radiative analysis of global mean temperature trends in the middle atmosphere: Effects of non-locality and secondary absorption bands

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a refined and extended assignment of past and future temperature changes relative to previous analyses and describe and evaluate the relevance of vertical coupling and non-linear and secondary radiative mechanisms for the interpretation of climatic temperature variations in the middle atmosphere. Because of their nature, the latter mechanisms are not adequately accounted for in most regression analyses of temperature trends as a function of local constituent variations. These mechanisms are examined using (1) globally averaged profiles from transient simulations with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances and (2) a one-dimensional radiative-equilibrium model forced using the diagnosed global mean changes in radiatively active constituents as derived from the CMAM model runs. The conditions during the periods 1975 to 1995 and 2010 to 2040 (during which the rates of change in ozone and CO2 differ) provide a suitable contrast for the role of the non-linear and non-local mechanisms being evaluated in this paper to be clearly differentiated and evaluated. Vertical coupling of radiative transfer effects and the influence of secondary absorption bands are important enough to render the results of multiple linear regression analyses between the temperature response and constituent changes misleading. These effects are evaluated in detail using the 1D radiative-equilibrium model using profiles from the CMAM runs as inputs. In order to explain the differences in the CMAM temperature trends prior to and after 2000 these other radiative effects must be considered in addition to local changes in the radiatively active species. The middle atmosphere temperature cools in response to CO2 and water vapor increases, but past and future trends are modulated by ozone changes.