Temperature-dependent Development Research Articles

Optical Phonon Decay and Improved Thermoelectric Efficiency in p-Type Mg3Sb2.

The Mg3Sb2-based layered compounds exhibit exceptional thermoelectric properties over a wide temperature range and possess the potential to supplant traditional Bi2Te3 modules with reliable and economical Mg3Sb2-based thermoelectric devices, contingent upon the availability of a complementary p-type Mg3Sb2 material with high thermoelectric efficiency comparable to that of n-type Mg3Sb2. We provide a simpler method involving the codoping of monovalent atoms (K and Na) at the Mg site of the Mg3Sb2 lattice to improve the thermoelectric performance of p-type Mg3Sb2. K-Na codoping results in a peak power factor of around 0.85 mW/mK2 at 675 K in Mg2.97K0.02Na0.01Sb2 by enhancing the carrier concentration at the Fermi level. Furthermore, the temperature-dependent development of the Raman modes substantiates the existence of significant lattice anharmonicity in Mg2.97K0.02Na0.01Sb2, ascribed to volumetric quasi-anharmonicity and three- and four-phonon interactions. As a result, decay of optical phonon happens at higher temperatures, yielding an exceptionally low lattice thermal conductivity of 0.38 W/mK at 675 K in Mg2.97K0.02Na0.01Sb2, the lowest recorded in p-type Mg3Sb2 materials. The thermoelectric figure of merit for Mg2.97K0.02Na0.01Sb2 attains 0.9 at 675 K, representing the highest documented value for double-doped p-type Mg3Sb2 materials thus far. Our extensive findings validate the optical phonon decay and improvement in thermoelectric efficiency of p-type Mg3Sb2 via codoping with monovalent atoms for midtemperature thermoelectric applications.

Insect size responses to climate change vary across elevations according to seasonal timing.

Body size declines are a common response to warming via both plasticity and evolution, but variable size responses have been observed for terrestrial ectotherms. We investigate how temperature-dependent development and growth rates in ectothermic organisms induce variation in size responses. Leveraging long-term data for six montane grasshopper species spanning 1,768-3 901 m, we detect size shifts since ~1960 that depend on elevation and species' seasonal timing. Size shifts have been concentrated at low elevations, with the early emerging species (those that overwinter as juveniles) increasing in size, while later season species are becoming smaller. Interannual temperature variation accounts for the size shifts. The earliest season species may be able to take advantage of warmer conditions accelerating growth during early spring development, whereas warm temperatures may adversely impact later season species via mechanisms such as increased rates of energy use or thermal stress. Grasshoppers tend to capitalize on warm conditions by both getting bigger and reaching adulthood earlier. Our analysis further reinforces the need to move beyond expectations of universal responses to climate change to consider how environmental exposure and sensitivity vary across elevations and life histories.

Implications of temperature-dependent development and survival of Hemipteroseius adleri Costa, 1968 on its distribution in central Europe

Otopheidomenidae include 30 species of parasites of insects. These mites occur in areas with warm and hot climates. The only exception is Hemipteroseius adleri, the distribution of which reaches the central European region, which is characterised by a moderate climate with below-zero temperatures in winter. In Europe, H. adleri only parasitises the red firebug (Pyrrhocoris apterus). Field observations indicate that only fertilised females of H. adleri survive winter conditions. The aim of the study therefore was to evaluate the impact of air temperature on the development and survival of H. adleri. A research model was established involving mites parasitising red firebugs in laboratory conditions at 15, 20, 25 and 30 °C. After oviposition, no egg development was possible at 15 °C. Egg development began at 20 °C, however the egg-to-adult period lasted for 13 days and larval mortality was significantly higher at this temperature than at 25 and 30 °C. At the latter tem temperatures, mites matured fastest (five and four days, respectively). The net reproductive rate (R0) was 10.8, the mean generation time was (T) 14.4 (SD = 0.273), the intrinsic rate of population increase (rm) was 0.165 (SD = 0.003), and the finite rate of population increase (λ) was 1.12. At 25 °C, H. adleri required 4.2 days to double its population. The results indicate that the thermal conditions prevailing in early spring in central Europe are highly unfavourable for the effective reproduction of H. adleri. The presence of northern populations of this mite is discussed in the context of behavioural thermoregulation mechanisms adapted by its host, P. apterus.

Development of Idaea inquinata (Lepidoptera Geometridae) at different constant temperatures and relative humidities under controlled conditions

The rusty wave moth Idaea inquinata is an insect pest that infests dried herbs, above all when stored in warehouses. Infestations were historically localised, but the recent climatic change might increase the incidence of this pest in many areas of north Italy. The artificial regulation of the environmental conditions of warehouses is one of the most common techniques to control pests, often combined with thermal treatments just after the introduction of the stocks. The optimisation of the warehouse conditions, however, requires a deep knowledge on how the species react to variations in temperature and relative humidities. This information is to date missing for I. inquinata and this work aimed to fill this gap in knowledge. The life tables at 35% and 70% RH, and at different constant temperatures were obtained for the egg, larval, and pupal stages by combining datasets provided by 20 years of continuous rearing of this species. A second part of the study, instead, concerned the estimation of the parameters of the temperature-dependent development rate functions, laying the foundations for further formulations of mathematical models to be applied in decision support systems. Life tables showed that conditions of low relative humidities and low temperatures are a good compromise that slows down the development time of the preimaginal stages. The upper thermal limit for the development of this species, instead, is around 40 °C, a threshold that can be considered for further thermal treatments to disinfest warehouses before the introduction of pest-free stocks or as a controlling action in case of infestations.

The Arabidopsis splicing factor PORCUPINE/SmE1 orchestrates temperature-dependent root development via auxin homeostasis maintenance.

Appropriate abiotic stress response is pivotal for plant survival and makes use of multiple signaling molecules and phytohormones to achieve specific and fast molecular adjustments. A multitude of studies has highlighted the role of alternative splicing in response to abiotic stress, including temperature, emphasizing the role of transcriptional regulation for stress response. Here we investigated the role of the core-splicing factor PORCUPINE (PCP) on temperature-dependent root development. We used marker lines and transcriptomic analyses to study the expression profiles of meristematic regulators and mitotic markers, and chemical treatments, as well as root hormone profiling to assess the effect of auxin signaling. The loss of PCP significantly alters RAM architecture in a temperature-dependent manner. Our results indicate that PCP modulates the expression of central meristematic regulators and is required to maintain appropriate levels of auxin in the RAM. We conclude that alternative pre-mRNA splicing is sensitive to moderate temperature fluctuations and contributes to root meristem maintenance, possibly through the regulation of phytohormone homeostasis and meristematic activity.

Low-temperature adhesive curing in timber engineering: About the relationship between curing kinetics and mechanical properties

Adhesive bonding plays a pivotal role in timber engineering, enhancing structural integrity, sustainability, and aesthetic appeal, while also addressing environmental concerns. The assessment of strength in adhesively bonded timber joints involves cohesive strength, adhesive strength, and substrate failure, all of which are crucial considerations for designing dependable timber structures. A comprehensive investigation was carried out with the aim of improving adhesive bonding for construction by revealing the relationship between curing progress and mechanical adhesive properties. For that, dynamic DSC measurements, kinetic modelling, tensile tests to determine the cohesive and adhesive strength, as well as tests for the evaluation of stiffness and hardness were performed using a two-component polyurethane adhesive. The investigation yielded valuable insights, particularly regarding the time- and temperature-dependent development of the curing degree and the aforementioned material properties. Additionally, the correlation between the curing degree and the respective material properties could be determined, showing that cohesion and stiffness built up occurs quite similar while the build-up of adhesive strength correlates well with hardness. It was thus concluded that Shore D hardness might represent a practical indicator for monitoring the progress of curing at low temperatures, which is a suitable means of improving adhesive applications in the construction industry.

Temperature-dependent development and population growth of the invasive pest Cassida vittata vill. In sugar beet crops

The sugar beet flea beetle, Cassida vittata Vill. is an invasive pest that significantly damages sugar beet crops in Morocco by affecting the leaves. To gain a deeper understanding of how temperature influences the development and reproduction of C. vittata and to facilitate its population management, laboratory-based experiments were conducted. Individuals were subjected to a range of constant temperatures spanning from 15 °C to 36 °C. The most extended lifespans for both adult females and males were recorded at 30 °C, with respective longevities of 62.8 and 62.5 days. The highest likelihood of eggs maturing into the adult stage occurred at 25 °C, with survival rates of 39.0% for females and 37.5% for males. Preadult survival rates displayed significant variability with temperature, with the highest survivorship observed at 25 °C (76.5%). The maximum average number of offspring produced per female reached 225.1 eggs at 25 °C. Daily reproduction, maximum total fecundity, and maximum daily fecundity were also notably higher at 25 °C. The population growth parameters exhibited their most favorable values at 25 °C, with r (0.0933 d−1), and R0 (87.15 offspring per female) being highest at this temperature. The temperature thresholds for the complete pre-adult stage (1st instar larva to adult) were estimated to be 9.4 °C for females and 9.0 °C for males. The thermal constants from the 1st instar larva to the adult stage were calculated to be 526.3 and 476.2 DD, respectively. These findings indicate that the most favorable temperature range for the population growth of this invasive pest falls between 25 °C and 30 °C.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick, 1909) Voltinism: Implications for Fruit Production in Southern Brazil.

The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-TL)(TH-T)1/2) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil.

Assessing dengue risk globally using non-Markovian models

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak conditions and quantifying the outbreak risk. Given that the life cycle of Aedes mosquitoes is strongly influenced by habitat temperature, numerous studies have utilized temperature-dependent development rates of these mosquitoes to construct virus transmission and outbreak risk models. In this study, we contribute to existing research by developing a mechanistic model for the mosquito life cycle that accurately captures its non-Markovian nature. Beginning with integral equations to track the mosquito population across different life cycle stages, we demonstrate how to derive the corresponding differential equations using phase-type distributions. This approach can be further applied to similar non-Markovian processes that are currently described with less accurate Markovian models. By fitting the model to data on human dengue cases, we estimate several model parameters, allowing the development of a global spatiotemporal dengue risk map. This risk model employs temperature and precipitation data to assess the environmental suitability for dengue outbreaks in a given area.

Modeling insect growth regulators for pest management.

Insect growth regulators (IGRs) have been developed as effective control measures against harmful insect pests to disrupt their normal development. This study is to propose a mathematical model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of IGRs for pest management. The key features of the model include the temperature-dependent growth of insects and realistic impulsive IGRs releasing strategies. The impulsive releases are carefully modeled by counting the number of implements during an insect's temperature-dependent development duration, which introduces a surviving probability determined by a product of terms corresponding to each release. Dynamical behavior of the model is illustrated through dynamical system analysis and a threshold-type result is established in terms of the net reproduction number. Further numerical simulations are performed to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of IGRs to control populations of harmful insect pests. It is interesting to observe that the time-changing environment plays an important role in determining an optimal pest control scheme with appropriate release frequencies and time instants.

Incubation and Larval Development Durations of Sterlet (A. ruthenus LINNAEUS 1758) in River Water Rearing under Near-Natural Conditions

Day-degrees [°D], also known as accumulated thermal units (ATUs), have been used to predict the duration of early development for fish. For most sturgeon species, the available data in the literature were determined under temperature-constant conditions. However, there is a lack of information on ATUs of early development for sturgeons under natural or near-natural temperature conditions. The aim of this study was to observe the duration of incubation and the duration from hatch until feeding of sterlets (Acipenser ruthenus) under near-natural conditions. This study was embedded within the LIFE-Sterlet and LIFE-Boat 4 Sturgeon project and data were gathered from the year 2017 to 2023. The rearing of fish larvae took place in the project hatchery container with Danube water without biological, chemical, or thermal water treatment to simulate natural conditions. Temperatures [°C] were monitored on a daily basis and day-degrees were calculated by summing the temperature over time. Results indicated slower larval development than described in the literature. Hatching started earliest after 7 days at 106 °D and latest after 151 °D. Feeding started between 155 and 271 °D. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the temperature-dependent development of sterlet larvae under near-natural conditions and can assist in the design of optimal rearing of sturgeons for conservation efforts.

Forecasting the seasonal phenology of Agrotis ipsilon in Oregon grass seed and vegetable agroecosystems.

Agrotis ipsilon (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a significant pest in Oregon grass seed and vegetable production systems. Effective management of this species relies on timely foliar insecticide applications targeting immature A. ipsilon larvae before crop damage is observed. Regionally specific phenological models serve as a critical component of effective areawide pest management plans to inform the timing of pest monitoring and management action. Seasonal modeling of A. ipsilon phenology is complicated by their migratory behavior and limited knowledge of temperature-dependent development on affected crop hosts. Growth chamber experiments at five constant temperatures (12 to 32°C) were conducted to determine the temperature-dependent development of A. ispsilon life stages on an artificial and perennial ryegrass diet. The completion of one A. ipsilon generation (egg-to-adult) required 658.71 ± 31.49, 601.98 ± 16.01, 648.47 ± 21.35 degree days with a base temperature threshold of 9.8°C for artificial diet, perennial ryegrass diet, and across both diet types, respectively. The timing of migrant adults was predicted with surface air temperature using non-linear regression with A. ipsilon abundance data collected from pheromone-baited traps in 77 total commercial grass seed (n = 57) and vegetable (n = 20) production fields across 19 sampling years (1996 to 2023). Developmental parameters and predictions of adult arrival were used to develop general and grass seed specific phenology model projections for A. ipsilon populations in Oregon. Regionally validated phenology models can be incorporated into decision support tools to forecast the spatiotemporal occurrence of crop-damaging life stages of priority insect pests.

Winter is not coming: evaluating impacts of changing winter conditions on coregonine reproductive phenology

Fishes in northern latitude lakes are at risk from climate-induced warming because the seasonality in water temperature is degrading, which can change ecosystem properties and the phenology of life-history events. Temperature-dependent embryo development models were developed for a group of cold, stenothermic fishes (Salmonidae Coregoninae) to assess the potential impacts of climate-induced changes in water temperature on cisco (Coregonus artedi) from two populations in Lake Superior (Apostle Islands [USA] and Thunder Bay [Canada]) and one in Lake Ontario (USA), vendace (C. albula) in Lake Southern Konnevesi (Finland), and European whitefish (C. lavaretus) in lakes Southern Konnevesi, Constance (Germany), Geneva (France), and Annecy (France). Water temperatures for each study group were simulated and changes in reproductive phenology across historic (1900–2006) and three future climatic-warming scenarios (2007–2099) were investigated. Models predicted that increases in water temperatures are likely to cause delayed spawning, shorter embryo incubation durations, and earlier larval hatching. Relative changes increased as warming scenarios increased in severity and were higher for littoral as compared to pelagic populations. Our simulations demonstrated that slower cooling in the autumn and (or) more rapid warming in spring can translate into substantial changes in the reproductive phenology of coregonines among our study groups. We expect that the changes in reproductive phenology predicted by our models, in the absence of thermal or behavioral adaptation, will have negative implications for population sustainability.

Previously introduced braconid parasitoids target recent olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae) invaders in Hawai’i

The olive fruit fly Bactrocera oleae (Diptera: Tephritidae) was detected on Maui and Hawai’i Islands in 2019, affecting yields and quality of the state’s emerging olive oil industry. Given previous parasitoid releases to control other invasive frugivorous tephritids in Hawai’i, we were interested in determining whether these parasitoids were naturally targeting recent olive fly invaders in field, if local olive cultivar differences affected parasitization rates, and if there was a seasonal pattern of parasitization that could inform future management decisions. To address these questions, we collected data from olive growing in Hawai’i during 2021 and 2022. During the fruiting season we collected monthly samples and reared out B. oleae in the lab. We detected two previously introduced braconid wasps: first Diachasmimorpha tryoni during 2021 and 2022 and later Fopius arisanus during the 2022 collection. Cultivar effects were limited to a single site in our study, where more D. tryoni were reared from ‘Arbequina’ olives. Seasonality of olive fruit fly and parasitoid activity was earlier in lower elevation sites, as expected based on tree phenology and temperature-dependent insect development. This represents the first report of D. tryoni parasitism activity against B. oleae and may reflect elevational effects combined with the ecological complexity in interactions between multiple invasive arthropod pests, their invasive and cultivated plant hosts, and introduced braconid parasitoids.

Effects of Temperature and Host Plant on Hedgehog Grain Aphid, Sipha maydis Demographics.

The hedgehog grain aphid (HGA), Sipha maydis Passerini (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is a cereal pest in many regions of the world. It was first documented in the United States in 2007, and it has a range that appears to be expanding. Understanding the effects of temperature and the host plant on HGA development, survival, and reproduction is crucial for understanding its population dynamics, potential distribution, and management strategies. In this study, we investigated the effects of different temperatures and host plants on the demographic parameters of HGA and determined the supercooling point (SCP) for their first instars, apterous adults, and winged adults. Our findings revealed that temperatures between 20 °C and 25 °C were optimal for HGA development and reproduction, with parthenogenetic females producing approximately 60 offspring in their lifetimes. However, HGA development was hindered below 10 °C and above 35 °C. The SCP for HGA was similar (mean ± S.E.: -16.280 ± 0.532 °C) among nymphs, apterous adults, and winged adults. We compared the HGA demographics with the demographics of the sorghum aphid (SA), Melanaphis sorghi (Theobald, 1904), on wheat, millet, and three cultivars of sorghum under a constant temperature. The HGA completed its life cycle on all the tested host plants with a similar reproduction, demonstrating a lack of resistance to HGA by a sorghum that is resistant to SA. By expanding our knowledge of host plant- and temperature-dependent development, reproduction, and mortality in S. maydis, we can better predict and manage future HGA populations in small grain crops.

Development of a Phenology Model for Egg Hatching of Walking-Stick Insect, Ramulus mikado (Phasmatodea: Phasmatidae) in Korea

The walking-stick insect Ramulus mikado is occasionally considered a forest pest, as its mass occurrence can cause severe defoliation. It overwinters as eggs on the ground surface, and the hatched nymphs climb up to the host trees in spring. In this study, temperature-dependent development experiments were performed on R. mikado eggs under three constant temperatures (23.3, 28.3, and 29.2 °C) to extend the previously reported thermal response. The development times of eggs collected in summer and winter were also compared to investigate how development status is influenced by the seasons. The lower and upper developmental thresholds and thermal constants of R. mikado eggs were estimated to be 6.1 °C, 29.2 °C, and 1707.8 DD, respectively. The starting point for effective temperature effects on the eggs was estimated to be 1 August, based on the results of the experiment on field-collected eggs. A phenology model was constructed by using a development completion model scaled by the thermal constant, with a starting point of degree-day accumulation. The model showed good agreement, with a deviation of 3.2 ± 2.95 days between prediction and observation. The developed phenology model is useful for determining the appropriate timing for management decision-making regarding this insect.

Temperature-dependent development of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) at constant temperatures: instar pathways and stage transition models with semifield validation.

Temperature-dependent development of Helicoverpa armigera (Hüber) fed with an artificial diet was studied at different temperatures. The instar pathway (IPW) defined as the number of instars prior to pupation significantly affected larval development time, with higher IPW leading to longer larval development time. The IPW was determined at the fifth instar to proceed to 6-7 IPW, when the development time of fifth instar was largely shortened. Accordingly, the development time after the fourth instar was combined (i.e., the fifth-seventh instar) as a single stage to simplify the various IPW and applied to develop phenology models. In linear models, the lower threshold temperature (LT) and thermal constant (degree-days, DD) for each stage were estimated. DD based on the common LT of 10.7 °C were 43, 287, and 191 DD for eggs, larvae, and pupae, respectively. DD model (253.6 DD with LT 10.3 °C for larvae and 181.5 DD with 11.6 °C for pupae) showed good performance in predicting the 50% occurrences of pupae and adults. In nonlinear models, stage transition (ST) models were constructed using the development rate and distribution models to simulate the proportion of individuals shifted from one stage to the next stage. The ST model showed good performance, indicating an average discrepancy of 1.74 days at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 90% adult emergence. Our models developed here will be useful to predict the phenology of H. armigera in the field and to construct a deterministic population model in the future.

Modeling linear and nonlinear relationship between temperature and development rate of Amblyseuis swirskii (Acari: Phytoseiidae)

In recent years, the utilization of biocontrol agents to administer agriculture pests has received more attention, which has conduce to an growth in companies generating biocontrol agents, including predators and parasitoids. Amblyseius swirskii Athias-Henriot as a part of predatory communities in greenhouses is currently used worldwide as a biocontrol agent against small insects and various mites, especially to suppress the population of the two-spotted spider mite (TSSM), Tetranychus urticae Koch. To improve mass rearing of A. swirskii and optimize its application in integrated pest management programs, its development rate was determined at seven constant temperatures ranging from 15 to 34 (±1)°C, 50±10% RH and a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D) h under laboratory conditions. None of the eggs hatched at 34°C and no development was observed. To determine the lower temperature threshold (T0) and thermal constant (K) of different stages of the predator, two linear models (ordinary and Ikemoto) were used. In addition, 26 nonlinear models were fitted to evaluate the development rate at different temperatures. The lower temperature threshold (T0) and thermal constant (K) of total immature stages were estimated by the ordinary (3.72°C and 133.22 DD) and Ikemoto (10.64°C and 86.51DD) linear models. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the best model for the description of the temperature-dependent development rate of the egg, larval, protonymphal, and dutonymphal stages was the Ratkowsky model and for the whole pre-adult stage, it was the Logan-6 model. Our results provided a detailed evaluation of the thermal requirements of A. swirskii, which can be important in improving the role of this mite in biological control programs.

Temperature-dependent development of Agrotis ipsilon (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and its stage transition models

The black cut worm Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel) is a destructive crop pest worldwide and a typical cut worm damaging plant parts below the soil surface, which requires a thorough phenological prediction of the target stage for proper management. Temperature is an essential factor affecting the phenology and dynamics of insect populations. So, this study was conducted to evaluate the temperature-dependent development of A. ipsilon fed on Kimchi cabbage (Brassica campestris) in a wide range of temperatures (10 to 40 ℃) in the laboratory. The linear and nonlinear relationship between temperature and development rate (1/development time) was analyzed. The lower threshold temperatures (LT) for eggs, larvae, and pupae were estimated to be 12.1 °C, 9.6 °C, and 11.2 °C, respectively, with thermal constants (degree days for development completion) of 31.3, 342.2, and 181.3 DD at each stage, respectively. Additionally, the thermal constant for tracking the phenology of each stage was determined using a common LT of 10.4 ℃: 40.3 DD for eggs, 315.6 DD for larvae, and 199.6 DD for pupae. Consequently, we provided newly the stage transition models for all stages of A. ipsilon using two basic components of the nonlinear development rate and distribution models to simulate the proportion of individuals shifted from one stage to the next stage. These models in their current form will be useful for constructing a population model for A. ipsilon in the future. Furthermore, the variation in the development time of A. ipsilon reported in previous studies was discussed using 95% confidence limits of the estimated line of our nonlinear models.

Developmental Differentiations of Major Maize Stemborers Due to Global Warming in Temperate and Tropical Climates

While many insects are in decline due to global warming, the effect of rising temperatures on crop insect pests is uncertain. A capacity to understand future changes in crop pest populations remains critical to ensure food security. Using temperature-dependent mathematical models of the development of four maize stemborers in temperate and tropical regions, we evaluated the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on development time. While recognizing the limitations of the temperature-dependent development rate approach, we found that global warming could either be beneficial or detrimental to pest development, depending on the optimal temperature for the development of the species and scenarios of climate change. Expected responses range from null development to 1.5 times faster development than expected today. These results suggest that in the medium term, the studied species could benefit from global warming with an accelerated development, while in the long term, their development could either be delayed or accelerated, which may impact their dynamics with implications on maize cultivation.