Technological Path Dependence Research Articles

Patent analysis based technology innovation assessment with the lens of disruptive innovation theory: A case of blockchain technological trajectories

The technological innovation period has reduced drastically in the current era giving rise to constantly new disruptive technologies, which may seem discreet; however, their evolution is also derived from the previous technological path. This study aims to identify the technology trajectory and evolution phases of disruptive technology, Blockchain, with respect to its predecessor technologies. Within the context of disruptive innovation theory, patent citation analysis employing the key-route main path method was utilized for this study. The data collection was based on keywords and IPC codes to retrieve US patents from the webpat database. The data obtained included 10,919 initial patents and 6206 final patents after simple family merge. The results acquired ranged from the year 1974 to 2021. The study identified five significant technology clusters based on the key-route main path analysis and framed the evolution path of the technology. The findings reveal the technological path dependence and knowledge flow of technological innovation. The novelty of this study lies in its approach to mapping DI theory characteristics with patent analysis to identify the path dependence of disruptive innovations, which aids researchers and decision-makers in understanding and assessing their innovation strategies.

The enabling and constraining connections between trust and digitalisation in incumbent value chains

Digitalisation is a disruptive socio-technical process that goes beyond digital technologies and their use within an organisation, and involves besides (in many cases radical) technological change, social, institutional and economic change. This creates uncertainties for value chain actors and the trust relationships between them. In this paper we aim to understand the connections between trust and digitalisation. We investigate how trust relations affect digitalisation, and how digitalisation affects trust relations among value chain actors, using the Dutch flower sector as a case study. Our findings show that the sector has a high level of interpersonal trust, but limited institutional trust, as the relationships between companies are highly competitive and transactional. In this context, limited trust hinders digitalisation in multiple and mutually reinforcing ways, inducing a vicious cycle whereby existing distrust or limited trust results in limited digitalisation, which in turn causes more distrust due to uncertainties around the digitalisation process, further increased by existing (technological) path dependencies. Hence there is a need for 1) awareness of mutually reinforcing (dis)trust dynamics and vicious (or virtuous) cycles in relation to digitalisation are needed; 2) higher levels of understanding of what digitalisation entails and 3) joint strategy building and foresighting in the value chain.

Identifying technology lock-in and tracing knowledge source trajectories: a case study of lithography

ABSTRACT This article presents an overview of the trajectories of lithography technology with a particular focus on technology lock-in. Based on the theory of technological evolution, the paper exploits the contribution of different knowledge sources. The results show that four phases of technological development characterise the evolution of lithography. Phases 2 and 3 from 2002 to 2011 are characterised by the persistence of particular standard technology and path dependence, suggesting the existence of technology lock-in. By highlighting the characteristics of technology lock-in and path dependence, we discuss the core technology gap between incumbents and latecomers. We find that the lithography industry was dominated by U.S., German, and Japanese core technologies in the early stages. However, knowledge diversity has gradually increased in recent years, with Korea and Taiwan contributing more to the current lithography technology, possibly breaking out path dependence. This study contributes to the existing literature on indicators and connotations of technological lock-in and path dependence. It provides insight into the window of opportunity for latecomers by identifying core lithography technologies.

From the What to the How of Keeping 1.5°C Alive: Methodological Innovations

Much attention is rightly being devoted to what cities need to do and the targets they need to meet in order to fulfill the 1.5°C agenda. The field of technical innovation is also vibrant, with bold marketing of new solutions a daily occurrence. Adopting them uncritically or in inappropriate contexts can often incur great expense and create technological lock-ins and path dependencies without sufficient positive impacts. By contrast, comparatively little innovation is occurring in methods to understand how changes and innovations might be received by different groups of urban residents or, indeed, what their often conflicting perceptions and priorities are in relation to individual and collective behavioural changes in adapting to climate change and promoting urban sustainability and resilience. This intervention explains some of the innovative methods available that have recently been tried and tested in diverse urban contexts. These involve bringing different stakeholders together to build shared understandings of local problems and to explore and co-produce appropriate strategies and solutions. These constitute deep and extended forms of participation that recognize the value of different forms of knowledge and seek to address unequal power relations rather than assuming that experts know best. On the basis of extensive comparative research, guidelines of good practice and how to adapt methods to local contexts have been developed. This article summarizes these guidelines and signposts to the full manual available on open access.

Technology trajectory in aviation: Innovations leading to value creation (2000–2019)

This study identifies relevant innovations and discusses value creation in the aviation industry between 2000 and 2019. Aviation experts with experience in innovation were selected and invited to complete a survey identifying the leading innovations in the industry. This study contributes to recent aviation history by offering a list of innovations and a discussion of technological path dependency and value proposition with examples. This overview is helpful to academics and practitioners to verify how these innovations have shaped the industry worldwide, making it more efficient, agile, sustainable, and safe. The innovations selected comprise consolidated technologies and emerging advances introduced in the timeframe proposed. 33 innovations primarily related to incremental and technical typologies that add value to products were mapped. In addition, this study provides insightful findings by classifying the value created for the aviation sector into five innovation clusters: (1) aircraft technology, adding value in terms of efficiency and sustainability; (2) innovation in passenger services, creating more personalized services and enhancing the customer experience; (3) innovation in flying, adding value in terms of safety and the security environment; (4) business and operational management, improving procedures and revenue; (5) and general applications, adding value in terms of Aviation 4.0 (increases in automation and data exchange, including cyber-physical systems, the Internet of Things (IOT) and cloud computing).

Policies and exploitative and exploratory innovations of the wind power industry in China: The role of technological path dependence

Exploitative innovation emphasizes the refinement of technologies. For example, the super long and super flexible blade is an improvement on the traditional blade. Exploratory innovation emphasizes the breakthrough of technological trajectories. The floating offshore wind turbine represents a revolutionary innovation. For survival and prosperity, wind power enterprises need to excel simultaneously at both exploitative and exploratory innovations. The Chinese government has issued a series of wind power innovation policies, but their impact on exploitative and exploratory innovations is not clear. Moreover, technological path dependence describes the connection between intertemporal innovations. The prevalence of QWERTY keyboard is the best case. While the effect of technological path dependence on the impact of innovation policies is also unknown. Using micro-data from listed Chinese wind power enterprises from 2006 to 2019, this study clarifies the effects of innovation policies on exploitative and exploratory innovations, and assesses the moderating effect of technological path dependence. Our results indicate that the effects of wind power innovation policies are significant, yet ambiguous. All categories of policies improve exploitative innovation, but negatively impact exploratory innovation. Besides, technological path dependence positively moderates the positive relationship between policy and exploitative innovation and the negative relationship between policy and exploratory innovation.

Defining and operationalizing path dependency for the development and monitoring of adaptation pathways

Adaptation pathway approaches (APAs) have become an increasingly popular means of facilitating local and regional anticipatory planning under the influence of climate change. Many studies in this field of research identify path dependencies as a key barrier to adaptation efforts. However, their respective definitions of path dependency are often vague and impede a comprehensive integration of this concept into APAs. We fill this gap by systematically exploring the constituent characteristics and conditions of path dependency based on the original theoretical literature that emerged in the 1980s and early 2000s. We then propose an operationalization based on examples of flood risk management practice, and highlight ways in which APAs may contribute to revealing and anticipating technological and institutional path dependencies. This conceptual work serves as a comprehensive and systematic baseline for analyzing path dependency in empirical studies using APAs within and beyond the flood risk context.

The Combinative Effect of Organizational and Technological Eco-innovations in R&D-intensive Companies

This study aims to investigate the influence of organizational and process eco-innovations on the introduction of product eco-innovations in R&D-intensive companies. We covered theory gaps by empirically demonstrating to what extent non-technological and technological eco-innovations are related. We used the Survey method to investigate a sample of Brazilian manufacturers from the electrical and electronics sectors, and we processed the data through Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The findings of this study evidenced that non-technological eco-innovations are able to influence technological eco-innovations, both process and product, suggesting that the organizational eco-innovation strategy leads to sustainable technological path dependence in R&D-intensive companies. Additionally, findings demonstrated that the association between organizational and product eco-innovation is stronger whether mediated by process eco-innovation, so the result confirms an evolutionary perspective regarding the differentiated types of eco-innovation. We conclude that by investing in eco-innovative R&D projects, new environmental systems, teams' formation, information flow, and trends monitoring, the company creates a path dependence for technological eco-innovation of process and products.

The local variations in regional technological evolution: Evidence from the rise of transmission and digital information technology in China's technology space, 1992–2016

While earlier studies have extensively evidenced the path-dependent character of technological evolution - whereby the rise of new technologies is heavily constrained by the portfolio of preexisting technologies in a certain city, surprisingly little is known about the local variations in the degree of path-dependency and the factors underlying this spatial heterogeneity. Based on a case study of transmission and digital information technology (H04L patents) in China, we perform a geographically and temporally weighted regression to unveil the local variations in regional technological path-dependency. To explain these variations, we further dissect the extent to which local actors may dislodge regional economy from path-dependent technological regimes, and the extent to which their path-breaking capabilities may diverge geographically. The model reveals that while all cities in China are subject to path-dependency in the development of H04L technology, the effect of technological relatedness is especially pronounced in the southern coastline, where industrial innovation enables a much larger impact of technological relatedness on H04L technological progress. By contrast, the technological path-dependency withers in the vicinity of eastern coastline, particularly in the Jing-Jin-Ji area, Yangtze River Delta and their western hinterlands, where university innovation exerts a relatively higher degree of path-breaking effect on H04L technology. Additionally, local governmental support is also conducive to inducing H04L technological discontinuities for latecomers by dislodging them from path-dependent technological regimes.

To continue to burn something? Technological, economic and political path dependencies in district heating in Helsinki, Finland

The transition away from fossil fuel based infrastructure for heating and cooling has to happen on a scale and timetable with no historical precedent. As the systems are large and networked, path-dependencies constrain the transition that is further complicated by the diversity of stakeholders. Here we analyze the case of transitioning the district heating system in the city of Helsinki, Finland, within the target of a carbon neutral metropolitan area. Despite relatively advanced climate policies, path-dependencies on the political, technological-material and economical levels interact in creating a ”wicked” problem with no obvious solution and potential for backsliding. It is in this context that a possibility of a green paradox arises: despite the explicit commitment of all stakeholders toward carbon dioxide emission reductions, the combination of the path-dependencies may result in a transition that increases emissions. Our results highlight policy implications of path-dependencies for researchers, government and business.

Drivers and barriers of eco‐innovation types for sustainable transitions: A quantitative perspective

AbstractFirms are influenced by internal factors (resources and capabilities) and external factors (e.g., regulation) when taking the decision to eco‐innovate. However, the analysis of the internal factors has received much less attention than the external ones. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature by analyzing the role of resources, competences, and dynamic capabilities (RCCs) as determinants (drivers and barriers) of different eco‐innovation (EI) types. Those EI types contribute differently to the sustainable transition of the economy and society, that is, towards the circular economy. The statistical analyses reveal that RCCs are quite relevant as determinants of EIs, and that different RCCs are more or less relevant for different EI types. In particular, the determinants of systemic and radical EIs substantially differ from those for continuous improvements. Our results suggest that physical RCCs, involvement in green supply chains, an EI‐friendly corporate culture, technology‐push and market‐pull, and internal financing resources represent drivers to these EIs, whereas cooperation, organizational learning, an ISO (International Organization for Standardization) ecological certification, and technological path dependency are barriers. The results may guide firms to pursue competitive and sustainable advantage by innovating through certain EI types corresponding to available and dedicated RCCs. They may also be useful to policy makers who are willing to promote specific EI types.

Behavioral instruments in renewable energy and the role of big data: A policy perspective

There has been a surge in the application of behavioral insights for environmental policymaking. It is often presented as an easy and low-cost intervention to alter individual behavior. However, there is limited insight into the cost effectiveness of these attempts and the impact of inserting behavioral policy instruments into an existing mix of traditional tools in a particular policy sector. Furthermore, there has been little focus on the intersection of large behavioral datasets and how they could complement behavioral insights. We present a conceptual overview of how the intersection of big data and behavioral knowledge would work in the renewable energy sector. We indicate that inserting behavioral insights into the energy instrument mix is complex due to technological trajectories, path dependencies and resistance from incumbent industries to change production patterns. We also highlight the underutilized role of large behavioral datasets that can inform not only policy implementation, but also policy design and evaluation efforts. Drawing on these findings, we introduce future research streams of government capacity in combining behavioral insights and data, the compatibility of this information with existing policy instruments and how this affects policy change.

“We Started Building Green IT Back in the 1970s”: Making Sense of Sustainable ICT through Organizational History

Traditionally, research related to Sustainable Information and Communication Technology (Sustainable ICT) has focused on the technological aspects, but there is an emerging stream of research, which looks at Sustainable ICT from the viewpoint of the social sciences. In this paper, we build on and contribute to this research by emphasizing the role of history in the shaping of Sustainable ICT. Rather than seeing the importance of history as pure technological determinism or path dependency, we draw on the historical turn in organizational studies to highlight the idea that history is malleable. This implies that organizational actors can reshape their past from the present, thus creating new conditions for the future. To highlight the importance of this theoretical conceptualization of history, we present a case study of the Nordic ICT company Tieto, where the heat recovery system of the Älvsjö data center (finished in 1978) was reconceptualized as “green” following the Green Information Technology (Green IT) trend in 2007. This way of theorizing organizational history could be used more widely within research into Sustainable ICT in order to understand why Sustainable ICT has become what it is, which also implies that we can re-interpret this history to shape the future of Sustainable ICT.

Unpacking Big Systems -- Natural Language Processing Meets Network Analysis. A Study of Smart Grid Development in Denmark.

Studies within the detection of technological trajectories and technology forecasting tend traditionally to rely on patent or bibliometric data. The main drawback of these invention-focused approaches is their inability to account for many mainly non-technical factors related to the social and institutional framing of technology. Value driven policies, technological and institutional path dependencies or user expectations and routines have major impact on the technological outcomes in a particular context. This paper suggests a new method for the mapping and analysis of large (technical) systems and contained technological trajectories on a national level using a combination of methods from statistical natural language processing, vector space modelling and network analysis. The proposed approach does not aim at replacing the researcher or expert but rather offers the possibility to algorithmically structure and to some extent quantify unstructured text data. The utilized filtered corpora consist of two types of Danish text-documents: 99 R&DD project descriptions and 574 (initially before filtering 813) non-academic/industrial journal publications dealing with the development of the smart energy grid in Denmark. Results show that in the explored case it is not mainly new technologies and applications that are driving change but innovative re-combinations of old and new technologies.

Sticky Transformation – How path dependencies in socio-technical regimes are impeding the transformation to a Green Economy

Many works in innovation research use path dependencies to explain the fact that change is often difficult to achieve. With regard to a transition to a green economy specific path dependencies are identified in the sectors of energy, mobility, housing and food in Germany. The paper looks into technological, economical, organizational, user-specific and legal path dependencies. For a successful transition to a green economy, the role of the state seems to be central. In many areas of transition, transitional regulation is full of loopholes and does not work. Activity of lobby groups prevents society from setting path-changing regulation.

Network variations at the intersection of national capability orientation and technological path dependence – patent citation network analysis of the hydrogen energy and nano-tech sectors

ABSTRACTHow do national factors intersect in network formation in different emerging sectors? Scholars have focused on these regarding networking phenomena: the effects of national and sectoral factors. In spite of their theoretical contributions, attempts have been neglected in identifying and/or linking the factors from both national and sectoral innovation systems within the networks. This paper examines the cross-country differences within a sector, and the cross-sectoral differences within a country, as the consequences of sectoral–national intersections. Longitudinal patent citation networks in two emerging sectors, the hydrogen energy sector and nano-tech sector have been analysed for a time period from 2004 to 2012, in four diverse developed countries. The results convey that the two sectors demonstrate significantly varied networking activities, notably influenced by national capability orientations. On the other hand, cross-country differences in networking activities are also varied by technological path dependence.

Decarbonizing Finance Recent Developments and the Challenge Ahead

Societies around the world are faced with a multitude of social and environmental challenges as the negative effects of human activity on the Earth’s ecosystem are becoming increasingly evident. At COP21 in Paris, 195 countries agreed to work together to limit global warming to 2°C and aim for net zero carbon emissions by the second half of the 21st century. This will require large-scale investment in renewable energy, energy efficient buildings, protection of forests, sustainable production processes and materials, and innovative solutions to social problems. Niche finance and public sector funds alone will not be sufficient to address this challenge. Thus, mainstream investment must be aligned with sustainable development – a process already under way, although hobbled by challenges such as carbon-locked legacy infrastructure, technological path dependence, financialization, lack of patient capital for innovation, and underdeveloped policy frameworks and markets for mainstreaming impact-driven investment. While the financial sector has been grappling with the environmental and social implications of climate change for at least a decade, the Paris Agreement could represent a tipping point for Sustainable Finance. However, a systemic response has been left so late that even with increased mitigation action, warming of 2°C can still be expected, leading to climate migration and growing social and political tensions. This article maps the current landscape of Sustainable Finance and key challenges that lay ahead.

Incremental innovations, information contagion, and path dependence: the case of drinking water purification technologies in urban India

Recent scholarship on technological path dependence has questioned the credibility of many previous studies for basing their analyses on cases settled in the past. Such cases often do not provide adequate insights into the historical contingencies, nature of incremental innovations, and the type of feedback mechanisms between consumers and producers of technologies. In addition, most of the cases dealing with path dependence focus on firms as users of technology, and miss out on the influence the consumers may have in shaping path dependence. We take the case of water purification technologies in India, where the technologies are still evolving, and analyze the path dependence implications of their evolution by taking the case of urban households with piped water supply. Using patent data, scientific studies, as well as interviews with firms and individuals, we analyze how through various incremental innovations and information contagion, reverse osmosis technologies demonstrate the features of path dependence, leading, possibly, to lock-in.

Object-based Path Dependence - Strategic Realignment of Organizations with their Environment

As a well-known concept, technological path dependence gives us valuable insights in how technologies become dominant in their markets. From organizational path dependence we already know a lot abo...

Spillovers, path dependence and the productive performance of European transportation sectors in the presence of technology heterogeneity

Adopting a metafrontier framework and a second stage system GMM estimation procedure, the technology isolation assumption is relaxed and the role of technological spillovers and path dependence on the productive performance of Air, Land and Water transportation industries of seventeen European countries for the period 1999–2006 is explored. Our main findings suggest that path dependence is a major determinant of the productive performance of the European transportation systems while the technological spillovers are in full operation when the technological advancements are taken into account. Grounded in the empirical results, divergence and clustering processes are sketched out in the productive performance of European transportation systems.