Abstract
Adaptation pathway approaches (APAs) have become an increasingly popular means of facilitating local and regional anticipatory planning under the influence of climate change. Many studies in this field of research identify path dependencies as a key barrier to adaptation efforts. However, their respective definitions of path dependency are often vague and impede a comprehensive integration of this concept into APAs. We fill this gap by systematically exploring the constituent characteristics and conditions of path dependency based on the original theoretical literature that emerged in the 1980s and early 2000s. We then propose an operationalization based on examples of flood risk management practice, and highlight ways in which APAs may contribute to revealing and anticipating technological and institutional path dependencies. This conceptual work serves as a comprehensive and systematic baseline for analyzing path dependency in empirical studies using APAs within and beyond the flood risk context.
Highlights
Introduction and problem framingAdaptation pathway approaches (APAs) have become increasingly popular for sequenced adaptation planning under deep uncer tainty (Haasnoot et al, 2013; Haasnoot et al, 2012; Ranger et al, 2013), and for fundamentally reconceptualizing adaptation itself as part of pathways of global and societal change (Wise et al, 2014)
We propose an operationalization based on examples of flood risk management practice, and highlight ways in which APAs may contribute to revealing and anticipating technological and institutional path dependencies
They were found wanting in two different dim ensions: i) its embeddedness in other societal pathways of change and the potential need for action that goes beyond existing insti tutional confines (Wise et al, 2014); and ii) the need to take into account multiple stakeholder perspectives and preferences (Bosomworth and Gaillard, 2019)
Summary
Adaptation pathway approaches (APAs) have become increasingly popular for sequenced adaptation planning under deep uncer tainty (Haasnoot et al, 2013; Haasnoot et al, 2012; Ranger et al, 2013), and for fundamentally reconceptualizing adaptation itself as part of pathways of global and societal change (Wise et al, 2014). Werners et al (2021) outline how the definition of adaptation pathways and respective analytical approaches have evolved since they first emerged around 2010, which was when threshold-oriented APAs were developed (Haasnoot et al, 2012; Haasnoot et al, 2013; Ranger et al, 2013): These first approaches are firmly built into existing institutional settings and address clearly defined goals and options for change They were found wanting in two different dim ensions: i) its embeddedness in other societal pathways of change and the potential need for action that goes beyond existing insti tutional confines (Wise et al, 2014); and ii) the need to take into account multiple stakeholder perspectives and preferences (Bosomworth and Gaillard, 2019). We turn to a forward-looking perspective and propose entry points regarding how path dependencies may be anticipated, overcome, or enabled using APAs (Section 4)
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