Identifying technology lock-in and tracing knowledge source trajectories: a case study of lithography

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article presents an overview of the trajectories of lithography technology with a particular focus on technology lock-in. Based on the theory of technological evolution, the paper exploits the contribution of different knowledge sources. The results show that four phases of technological development characterise the evolution of lithography. Phases 2 and 3 from 2002 to 2011 are characterised by the persistence of particular standard technology and path dependence, suggesting the existence of technology lock-in. By highlighting the characteristics of technology lock-in and path dependence, we discuss the core technology gap between incumbents and latecomers. We find that the lithography industry was dominated by U.S., German, and Japanese core technologies in the early stages. However, knowledge diversity has gradually increased in recent years, with Korea and Taiwan contributing more to the current lithography technology, possibly breaking out path dependence. This study contributes to the existing literature on indicators and connotations of technological lock-in and path dependence. It provides insight into the window of opportunity for latecomers by identifying core lithography technologies.