Tea Export Research Articles

Impact of COVID-19 on the Sri Lanka Economy

This study focuses on tracing the early economic impacts of COVID-19. The pandemic has unleashed a global shock impacting all economies in several ways. The lockdowns have brought economic activity to a standstill, with the closure of businesses and halting of travel, trade and commerce. Even as the impact on sensitive sectors as trade, tourism and remittances are already becoming visible, it is imperative to understand how these are impacting economies in Asia. This article studies these impacts on Thailand and Sri Lanka, both of which being wired to the globalized world, are witnessing adverse impacts on earnings through exports and tourism as well as a huge decline in inward remittances. Even as countries beef up their health infrastructure, they also seek to restart international travel and trade. Hence, the role of the state is critical to pull the economies out of the deglobalization trends that are expected to gain pace in and beyond 2020. This section discusses how the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic affects the various components of exports and imports of Sri Lanka. The impact on the industrial/ manufacturing sector exports and its major components such as export of textile and garment products, petroleum products and rubber products based on the availability of monthly data are examined. The impact on exports of tea, rubber, coconut and total agricultural exports and components of imports is also analysed separately.This review paper the economic impact of covid-19 on Sri Lankan economy and the specific objectives are to identify the outbreak on the key economic income earning sector such as tourism, food and agriculture, exports of apparels and textiles and small and medium scale enterprises and reinvigorate the Sri Lankan economy.

Export of Tea from India: Performance and Determinants

The study analyzed the trends in growth, instability, competitiveness, and determinants of tea export from India from 2001 to 2018. The analytical techniques applied in the study wereCompound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC), Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, and multiple linear regression analysis. The major importing countries of tea export from India were the Russian Federation, United Arab, United Kingdom, Iran, and United States of America. The CAGR in terms of tea export value to major importing countries was positive and significant in Russia, Iran, the United States of America, and the United Kingdom.The instability index was found to be more in United Kingdom (23.78percent), followed by the United Arab Emirates (22.86percent), Russia (15.35percent),the United States of America (7.89percent), andIran (6.26percent).NPCindicated that tea was a competitive export product from India, but its competitiveness decreased during the study period. The estimated regression model of determinants of tea export showed a positive and significant relationship with international price and export price. The other three variables, such as exchange rate, domestic consumption, and lagged production, were non-significant.

Green with Milk and Sugar: When Japan Filled America's Tea Cups by Robert Hellyer

Reviewed by: Green with Milk and Sugar: When Japan Filled America's Tea Cups by Robert Hellyer William Wayne Farris Green with Milk and Sugar: When Japan Filled America's Tea Cups. By Robert Hellyer. Columbia University Press, 2021. 304 pages. ISBN: 9780231199100 (hardcover, also available as e-book). Did you know that three early American presidents—George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and Abraham Lincoln—drank green tea? This intriguing fact is only one small way by which master storyteller Robert Hellyer draws readers into Green with Milk and Sugar. This outstanding book chronicles the tea trade between Japan and the United States over more than a century, from 1858 to about 1960. The author's interest in the tea trade is personal, as his family acted as tea exporters from Japan to the United States from about 1880 until the 1970s. Yet at the same time that Hellyer makes contributions to Japanese and US history, he more importantly takes a significant step toward elucidating world tea commerce through a deft accounting of [End Page 400] events in China, India, and Great Britain as well. Green with Milk and Sugar is really a world history firmly anchored in sources spanning Europe, Asia, and North America. Chapter 1 introduces the reader to what Hellyer terms "teaways" (p. 3), meaning the methods in which the beverage was consumed and displayed in society. After a brief history of tea in premodern Japan, the author describes the tea trade between China and Great Britain and ultimately the American colonies. Under the Canton system, the British surrendered silver to Qing China in return for both black and green teas as well as silk and porcelain. Once the United States was formed in 1787, the new country took control of its own trade. Even at this initial stage, US consumers drank more green than black tea, despite the Chinese use of pigments and other additives (such as prussic acid) in the former. From 1830 to 1836, the amount of tea sent to the United States doubled. As the new nation expanded westward, pioneers took tea with them. Another surge in tea consumption followed the Opium Wars (1839–1842). In chapter 2, "Civil Wars," Hellyer constructs parallel narratives of the internal conflicts that wracked Japan and the United States in the 1860s. After the unequal treaties opened some Japanese ports beginning in 1858, American importers (including one William Alt, who would eventually hire the Hellyer brothers around 1868) worked with Japanese brokers to ship tea to the United States. The author describes the firing of tea leaves in pans or baskets in Japan to make ready for the long journey across the Pacific and beyond. Surprisingly, Chinese experts provided supervision for about a thousand Japanese workers—men, women, and children—at first in Nagasaki. During the US Civil War, Chicago became a major rail hub, shipping 1.5 million pounds of mostly Japanese green tea to the thirsty residents of Illinois. Tea was dispensed to Union soldiers as provisions, while tariffs on this commodity helped pay for the war effort. By 1865, Japanese green tea was so common that Americans dubbed it "Japan Tea" (p. 52). The parallel narratives continue in chapter 3, which covers the period until about 1880. After the US Civil War, the federal government lowered tariffs, and Japanese and Chinese teas were sold in the United States at near parity. Yet Japanese tea carried an image in advertisements and trading cards that was decidedly more positive than that of the Chinese beverage. Both countries used additives in their tea leaves, but the adverse publicity seems mostly to have afflicted the Chinese. Illustrations for "Japan Tea" showed Japanese women in traditional garb with scenes from the archipelago, while the US temperance movement portrayed what it called "the Heathen Chinee" (p. 61). The Page Act restricted Chinese immigration to the United States as early as 1875, even as the Gilbert and Sullivan opera The Mikado served to boost the Japanese image starting in 1885. Still, US imports of tea should be kept in perspective with those of coffee (only 59 million pounds for the former versus 363 million pounds for the latter in 1879). Hellyer argues...

Indian Tea: Robust Growth Amid Rising Challenges

Tea [ Camellia sinensis  (L.) O. Kuntze is most consumed drink in the world makes a vital contribution to the economy of the producing countries. India is the second largest tea producer and one of the world’s largest consumers of tea. The consumption rate in India has increased at a CAGR of 2.95%. Indian production has increased at a CAGR of 4.17% between 2010 to 2018 but slight falling trend in production have been noticed in 2018 and 2019. Black tea occupied major share and now-a-days expansion of green, herbal and flavor teas has been seen. A comparative growth of tea export, auction prices, price realization etc. of India and other major producing countries are presented. The COVID-19 pandemic blow comes just at a time when unit prices of Indian tea were on the rise for its better quality, but lockdowns severely affected the Indian auction price till 22nd week of 2020. The average monthly auction prices were gradually increased from INR 188.77/kg in June to INR 260.63 in August and has shown declining trends fetching INR 252.87 in September and INR 206.26/kg in October 2020. The auction prices were 2.5 times more since lockdown, which have impacted the gross margins in the September quarter. The price rise would certainly provide some relief to the Indian tea industry which has been struggled with consistent increasing production costs since 2014. The lockdown effect on production, market and export of Indian tea was comparatively severe than other major tea producing countries. Indian export target of 300 million kilograms (mkg) was set for 2020 but target was fell both in volume and value terms between January and June 2020 and target expected to be lower around 210 mkg. Though gradual increment of revenue has been observed but the year-on-year revenue growth rate of Indian tea industry has reduced significantly. In the present article growth of tea production, consumption, tea market, auction prices, revenue earning and impact of COVID-19 on tea prices from the global perspective are discussed. Since last few years recurring problems with low prices and high labour costs, unusual weather is intensifying in the Indian tea industry are also highlighted.

COVID-19 Impact on Sri Lankan Economics

COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the world since 2019(2020 WHO) it has been a biggest challenge for mankind in the recent past years. The pandemic outbreak drastically effected China’s economy, the slowdown in China’s economy effected rest of the world as well. Sri Lanka is also not an exception for this. The first COVID-19 case was reported in Mar 11 in Sri Lanka after that many other positive COVID-19 cases were identified and government has taken pre caution methods to control the pandemic successfully for about six months but now the situation is out of our hand. COVID-19 pandemic created more negative effects in key income sectors like tourism, export earnings, small and medium entrepreneurship, tea, apparel and textile exports. Sri Lanka’s tea production for the period January - December 2019 totalled 300.1 million kgs and it was reduced to 278.5million kgs in January – December 2020 (Tea Exporters Association Sri Lanka). Apparel exports for the year 2019 was 481mn$ reduced to 382.28mn$ in 2020(Apparel exporters association) Also, Colombo stock exchange reported a historical low in mid-March, moreover Sri Lanka’s external sector performance weakened due to lack of exports this was due to the travel restrictions, Closure of ports and airports. Meanwhile the inflation of the country in 2019 reported 4.3% increased to 4.56% in 2020. However, some recommendations implemented by Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) to strengthen and rebuild the economic. Moratorium facilities granted for the loans, working capital loans with a low interest rate to support the small-scale retailers and small medium entrepreneurship. As of now Sri Lanka recovering from the pandemic impact and trying to recover the economic slowdown.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Sri Lankan Economy

The most recently identified Corona virus causes COVID-19, a communicable illness. Before the outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, no one had heard of this new virus (WHO, 2020). All of the afflicted nations have been seeking for a safety precaution, and a few countries have already specialized a Corona virus vaccination, but the issue has already spiralled out of control owing to a lack of knowledge and management. More than six months into the epidemic, Sri Lanka has made significant progress in limiting the spread of COVID-19; nonetheless, the threat remains after hitting the third COVID-19 wave. This paper determines on identifying the impact that has created within the Sri Lankan economy specifically pertaining to the key income sectors of the country, such as tourism, apparel and textile industry, small and medium enterprises, agriculture and food. Tea export income dropped to USD 270.1 million in January to March 2020. In March 2020, earnings from other agricultural sectors such as fruits and vegetable products and coconut production were substantially lower than in March 2019. Tourism earnings from January to June in 2019 were 1,901 USD, whereas they were 956 USD in 2020 (from January to June). This was due to restrictions placed on airport routes and visa cancellations. Due to delayed or cancelled orders from domestic and international clients, sales of more than 80% of small and medium businesses decreased. COVID-19’s impact on all these key revenue generating sectors in the country however led to a negative GDP growth of 3.6% whereby it can be concluded that the overall impact upon the pandemic on the country’s economy has left a negative impression and appropriate recommendations should be implemented to achieve an economic growth despite the ongoing pandemic of the country.

COVID-19 Impact on Sri Lankan Economics

COVID-19 is quickly spreading across the world since 2019(2020 WHO) it has been really difficult for humankind in the new past years. The pandemic outbreak radically affected China's economy, the stoppage in China's economy affected rest of the world too. Sri Lanka is additionally not an exemption for this. The first COVID-19 case was accounted for in Mar 11 in Sri Lanka after that numerous other positive COVID-19 cases were recognized and government has taken pre alert techniques to control the pandemic effectively for around a half year yet presently the circumstance is out of our hand. COVID-19 pandemic made more adverse consequences in key pay areas like the travel industry, send out profit, little and medium business, tea, clothing and material fares. Sri Lanka's tea creation for the period January - December 2019 totaled 300.1 million kgs and it was decreased to 278.5million kgs in January – December 2020 (Tea Exporters Association Sri Lanka). Clothing trades for the year 2019 was 481mn$ diminished to 382.28mn$ in 2020(Apparel exporters affiliation) Also, Colombo stock exchange detailed a verifiable low in mid-March, in addition Sri Lanka's outer area execution debilitated because of absence of fares this was because of the movement limitations, Closure of ports and air terminals. In the interim the swelling of the country in 2019 announced 4.3% increased to 4.56% in 2020. Be that as it may, a few suggestions carried out by Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) to reinforce and reconstruct the financial. Ban offices allowed for the advances, working capital advances with a low loan fee to help the limited scale retailers and little medium business. As of now Sri Lanka recuperating from the pandemic effect and attempting to recuperate the monetary log jam.

Vietnamese Tea Exporting and Forecasting to 2030

This study aimed to determine the factors influencing Vietnamese tea export quantities, namely, the internal factors of national tea production, productivity, and cultivated areas, and the external factors of export price and world tea export quantity (excluding Vietnam). We employed a time-series linear model to estimate the magnitude as well as the sign of the aforementioned factors on Vietnam’s tea export quantity and two Box-Cox transformations called a simple back-transformed forecast and a bias-adjustment to forecast the growth rate of the Vietnamese tea export quantity until 2030. The results suggested that except for the total domestic tea production, all the proposed factors significantly affected the Vietnamese tea export quantity. The tea export quantity of other nations around the world had a significantly negative impact on Vietnamese tea that led to Vietnam’s tea exports dropping by 34 tons on average since the other countries exported 1,000 tons of tea. The forecasted outcome suggested an upward trend of Vietnamese tea exports up to 2030. In order to sustainably develop Vietnam’s tea industry, we recommend that the government should take supportive actions such as investing in in-depth tea processing to improve Vietnam’s tea export quality, focusing on post-harvest activities, investing in organic or high-value tea rather than conventional tea, continuing to accumulate land to support the growth of cultivated tea areas, and maintaining high productivity by using hybrid seeds.

Information Visualization Using Clustering and Predictive Model

This paper aims to reveal the impact of rainfall on tea export from India, an issue that remained unexplored in the existing literature. This study explores a new model to predict India's tea export more accurately that would be helpful for Indian tea planters and exporters to plan their production as well as the inventory holding for deriving maximum value from tea export. A two-stage modelling approach has been developed. Firstly, an artificial intelligence-based growing hierarchical self-organising map algorithm is employed on the monthly time series of monthly frequency spreading over April 2005 to December 2013 to segregate India's monthly tea export data series into visual clusters of recognized pattern. Further, a predictive model using support vector machine has been developed and applied to forecast the tea export and then the importance of the predictor variables of the tea export have been identified. Finally, using the appropriate measures of performance a comparative analysis has been performed for each of the model. The newness of the study pertains to the two facts revealed from the study: firstly, India's tea export is embedded of complexity and nonlinearity, which could receive a successful clustering through growing hierarchical self organizing map that would make a deeper analysis easier with a further application of rich statistical techniques. Secondly, the analysis of prediction errors and the relative importance of the predictor variables establish rainfall as one of the most significant variable in predicting India's tea export, insight that has never surfaced in the literature developed thus far.

Global and regional trading blocs of coffee and tea: Outlook, trading signals, and policies

AbstractIn world, coffee and tea are the most enjoyable consumer beverages. Drinking coffee and tea reduce the risk of several diseases such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and age‐related neurological disorders. This is based on the foreign trade research study, which examines area, production, and exports and imports of coffee and tea globally during the period from 1990–1991 to 2017–2018. CAGR, price elasticity's, instability, and trends of exports and import price analysis were employed for the analysis of the study. The study found that MERCOSUR and SAFTA are the major producers of coffee and tea, respectively, in the world. All regional trading blocs have shown more or less linear trends in the area and production of coffee and tea during the period of 1990–1991 to 2017–2018. Among the countries, Viet Nam and Peru have shown the highest growth rate under the area and production of coffee over the years. Area and production of tea have been increasing in Viet Nam and India over the years. Globally, import prices of coffee and tea were higher than export prices. All trading blocs have shown the mixed trends in export and import price of coffee and tea except the export price of tea in the MERCOSUR, ASEAN, and SAFTA. Export prices of coffee and tea were higher than import price in all trading blocs except EFTA, MERCOSUR, and ASEAN. The terms of trade of coffee and tea were favored in the European Union, NAFTA, COMESA, SAFTA, and Pacific Alliance during the period of 1990–1991 to 2017–2018. MERCOSUR would get benefited from other countries due to the higher export prices of coffee. Similarly, EFTA, NAFTA, COMESA, and Pacific Alliance trading blocs would be profited for tea. Globally, Export price elasticity's of coffee in MERCOSUR and COMESA were marginally higher than imports price elasticity. Export price elasticity's of coffee were found to be marginally higher than imports in the Germany, Italy, and Netherlands (EU); Norway (EFTA); Canada and the United States (NAFTA); Venezuela (MERCOSUR); Australia (ASEAN); Egypt (COMESA); India (SAFTA); and Chile and Peru (Pacific Alliance). Export price elasticity's of tea were found to be marginally greater than the imports in the Italy (EU), Norway and Switzerland (EFTA), the United States (NAFTA), Australia, Indonesia and Thailand (ASEAN), and Chile and Peru (Pacific Alliance). India has the highest average bound duties and MFN applied duties in the coffee and tea in the world. Maximum bound duties and MFN applied duties of coffee and tea were higher in Switzerland. The United States and EU have the highest share of coffee and tea imports. Globally, more number of Sanitary and Phyto‐Sanitary measures and Special Safeguards have been provided to coffee and tea. NTM acts as a policy substitute for import tariffs in the global tea trade. Adapting the climate change plans is very important to enhance the quality and yield of coffee and tea. Training and conferences help to strengthen the capacity building of farmers. Proper price mechanism for coffee and tea land holders must be necessary to receive the higher profits for their produce. Global price fixing mechanism for tea and coffee is essential. This foreign trade study is very helpful for multi‐stake holders, producers, traders, and consumers of coffee and tea globally.

An Analysis on Pseudo-Tea from Perspective of Chinese Medical Literature

As export of Chinese tea gradually developed and peaked in the 19th century, reports on pseudo-tea started appearing frequently, attracting attention from both the government and merchants. Although pseudo-tea has existed in both China and western countries, the western merchants adulterate tea specifically for profits. In contrast, pseudo-tea emerged in China with the popularization of tea drinking and its use has also been recorded in literature. In many studies on Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) literature, pseudo-tea such as leaf of Liu/Babylon weeping willow, Huai/Chinese scholar tree, Shinan/Chinese photinia, and Gaolu/big leaf tea have not only been identified and recognized, but also considered particularly suitable for mixing with genuine tea. Tea is a medicinal and edible product, and public cognition on tea production and tea drinking is influenced by TCM literature. Hence people always mix pseudo-tea with genuine tea as a common practice. However, pseudo-tea was behind the decline of Chinese tea trade in the foreign trade market when western countries entered the high-quality tea trade and started developing colonial tea industry. This article discusses the "Pseudo-Tea", defines as in TCM literature, or substitute genuine tea for drinking, or blends and decocts with genuine tea for drinking, which all constitute the pseudo-tea.

Withering of tea leaves using heat pipe heat exchanger by utilizing low-temperature geothermal energy

Abstract The volume of Indonesian tea exports to the European Union (EU) decreased by 43% in 2014 because of the EU setting a maximum residue limit of anthraquinone (AQ) for tea as 0.02 mg/kg. The content of AQ in tea leaves increases when there is incomplete combustion in the combustion of firewood for the energy source of withering and drying of tea leaves. This study aims to develop and test a new concept for the direct use of low-temperature geothermal energy with a heat pipe heat exchanger (HPHE) for the withering of tea leaves as a solution for energy sources free from AQ. The geothermal fluid simulators use water, which is heated by heater and flowed by a pump. The HPHE used consists of 42 heat pipes and 181 fins. The heat pipe used has a length of 700 mm with an outer diameter of 10 mm. Each fin is made of aluminum with a thickness of 0.105 mm and a size of 76 × 345 mm2. The results show that the effectiveness of the HPHE varies from 66% to 79.59%. For 100 g of fresh tea leaves, the heating energy produced ranges from 15.21 W to 45.07 W, meaning it can wither tea leaves from 80% (w.b.) to 54% (w.b.) in a variety of 11 h 56 min to only 49.6 min. The Page mathematical model is the best model to represent the behavior of the tea leaves with this HPHE system.

Determinants of Kenyan Tea Exports: The Gravity Model Approach

Tea exports are one of the primary drivers of economic growth in Kenya. Given its importance in the economy, it is necessary to analyze factors that are determining tea export flows between Kenya and its trading partners. In this paper, the key factors determining Kenya’s tea exports to its major 15 trading partners for the period 1990 to 2017 were analyzed using a gravity model method. For this purpose, the secondary data were collected from official websites of the United Nations as well as other reliable sources. The main findings suggest that an increase in the economic size of importing country and depreciation of Kenyan shilling increases tea exports. On the other hand, an increase in population and per capita GDP of the importing country decreases the demand for tea, leading to a reduction of tea exports. Distance is used as a proxy of transportation cost and it is found to have a negative impact on tea exports. Having a common border and trading with countries that are non-landlocked allows the delivery of Kenyan tea at minimum transportation cost, which increases the export flow of tea from Kenya. Moreover, the results reveal that countries that Kenya shares a common colony with and COMESA members have a strong tendency to receive tea exports from Kenya. These results are essential for the formulation of trade policy to ensure that Kenya’s tea export potential is exploited to boost economic growth and generate employment. Keywords: Gravity model, Kenyan tea exports, panel data, fixed effects, random effects, pooled effects DOI: 10.7176/JESD/10-14-15 Publication date: July 31 st 2020

WORLD TEA MARKET: TRENDS IN PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

The article analyzes the main trends and prospects for the development of the global and Russian tea market. It reviews and analyzes the main directions of development of the tea market in the world, provides an international classification of black tea, shows the main countries manufacturers, importers and exporters of this product. The dynamics of tea production, import and export in the Russian Federation over five years showed in this article by using analytical indicators. Also were identified the main reasons for the changes and analyzed the leading players-producers of the domestic tea market, as well as showed the main trends characteristic of the development of this market in immediate prospects. The article considers the general structure of the tea market in natural terms and provides the results of analysis of changes in consumer preferences. Within the framework of the study, the assortment of the Perekrestok retail network was studied as a tool for forming and maintenance commodity stocks of this economic entity. ABC-analysis was used to analyze the assortment of black tea. Based on the results of the study, recommendations were developed and proposed for further work with the assortment of this product group.

台湾における「日本茶」市場動向と日本産緑茶輸出の課題

台湾における「日本茶」市場動向と日本産緑茶輸出の課題

Analisis Daya Saing Komoditas Teh Hitam Curah Indonesia di Pasar Global (Studi Kasus di Negara Russia)

Brewed tea is the most consumed beverage after water. The tea commodity is divided into four: bulk green tea, retailed green tea, bulk black tea, and retailed black tea. Eventhough bulk black tea has the lowest price average, it has the highest demand and import value growth each year. Rusia is not only the main export destination country for Indonesian bulk black tea, but also the largest bulk black tea importer in the world. The purpose of this research are to analyze the position of Indonesian bulk black tea export competitiveness in the global market and to find the factors that significantly affect Indonesian bulk black tea export in Russian market. The result of CMSA shows that Indonesia's competitiveness ranks low among other exporter countries and has a negative growth trend. According to multiple linear regression analysis, the most significantly affecting factor is price with a negative relation. Which means when price grows, Indonesia's competitiveness decline.

Detection of Tea Export Potentiality from Bangladesh in the World Market: An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Approach

Export plays an important role in promoting economic growth and development. The study is conducted to make an efficient forecasting of tea export from Bangladesh for mitigating the risk of export in the world market. Forecasting has been done by fitting Box-Jenkins type autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The best ARIMA model is selected by comparing the criteria- coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). Among the Box-Jenkins ARIMA type models for tea export the ARIMA (1,1,3) model is the most appropriate one for forecasting and the forecast values in thousand kilogram for the year 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22, are 1096.48, 812.83, 1122.02, 776.25 and 794.33 with upper limit 1819.70, 1348.96, 1862.09, 1288.25, 1318.26 and lower limit 660.69, 489.78, 676.08, 467.74, 478.63, respectively. So, the result of this model may be helpful for the policymaker to make an export development plan for the country.

Econometric Study of coffee and tea exports in Uganda

The study econometrically analyses the exportation of coffee and tea in Uganda. Secondary data was used for this study. Secular trend analysis was utilized to compliment findings and familiarize with general pattern or trend of the export of coffee and tea. The simultaneous equation model was employed to analyze real variables that are determinants of export of coffee and tea. The mechanism was suggested in order to develop an efficient agriculture foreign trade in Uganda. The results of trend analysis indicate that the value of coffee exported is increasing by 25.16million dollars per year. The value of tea exported is decreasing at about 1.14 million dollars yearly. The results of the simultaneous equation model show that quantity exported of Uganda’s coffee has inelastic demand and the quantity of coffee exported at last year, export price, export price of tea, the exchange rate, export price of Ethiopia’s coffee, and the quantity of coffee produced in Uganda are the independent variables of the quantity of Uganda’s coffee exported. The quantity of Uganda’s tea exported has elastic demand and the export price, the population of the main importers of Uganda’s tea, national income of main importers, export price of coffee, the exchange rate, quantity of tea produced in Uganda, the quantity of tea consumed domestically in Uganda, and the local consumption of tea in Uganda at last year are independent variables of the quantity exported of Uganda’s tea. Based on the findings it is recommended that the government should take serious measures to make agriculture organizations take their full roles of modernizing agriculture. Re-establishment of marketing boards, and also the government should take full control providing all agriculture inputs to the farmers and also putting them on the market. This will help make their prices reduced and provide good quality on the market.

Fitting ARIMA Model and Forecasting for the Tea Production, and Internal Consumption of Tea (Per year) and Export of Tea

Every year, in Bangladesh the production has increased by 1.84 % and contributes 1.37 in export in the word tea trade and earns nearing 1775 million Taka. The internal consumers of the country are presently consuming about 98% of its produce. The consumption is increasing day by day mainly due to the rapid increase in population. This study considered the published secondary data of yearly tea production in Bangladesh over the period 1990 to 2015 by the Bangladesh Tea Board. We are forecasting the production of tea and internal consumption of tea by using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for the next 5 years. Run test, Jarque and Bera test criteria are used for the adequacy of the fitted model which followed by the residual analysis. The comparison between the original series and forecasted series are showing the same trends which indicate the fitted model is statistically well and appropriate for the forecast the productions of tea in Bangladesh.

PENETAPAN KADAR FENOL TOTAL DAN KATEKIN DAUN TEH HITAM DAN EKSTRAK ASETON TEH HITAM DARI TANAMAN CAMELLIA SINENSIS VAR. ASSAMICA

Indonesia is quite well known as one of the countries that has tea plantations and uses its own production of tea. As a tea producing country, Indonesia has been able as a tea exporter. The most tea production in Indonesia is black tea product. Black tea products are produced from species Camellia sinensis Var. Assamica which undergoes an enzymatic oxidation process to fresh tea leaves. The most phenolic compounds contained in the black tea leaf are catechins, theaflavins, and thearubigin. The purpose of this study was to determine the phenolic total and catechin content of black tea products and acetone extracts produced by D'wan Tea (DT) and Bali Cahaya Amertha (BCA) plantations which located in Tabanan district, Bali. Determination of total phenol was carried out on black tea leaf products and acetone extract using the Folin-Ciocalteu method compared with gallic acid standards. Determination of catechin content was performed on fresh (before oxidized) tea leaves, black tea leaf products, and acetone extracts using the UV-Vis Spectrophotometry method at a maximum wavelength of 257 nm. The results showed that total phenol content of D'wan Tea black tea products (SDT) and Bali Cahaya Amerta (SBCA) were 1.50 ± 0.02 % mg GAE/g dan 0.97 ± 0.02 % mg GAE/g, respectively. Results of the total phenol content of D'Awan Tea (EADT) black tea acetone extract was 6.92 ± 0.12 % mg GAE/g, while the Bali Cahaya Amerta (EABCA) black tea acetone extract was 7.38 ± 0.07 % mg GAE/g. Catechin content from fresh leaf samples of D'wan Tea (SSDT), SDT, and EADT were 15.30 ± 0.22 % mg/g, 8.37 ± 0.13 % mg/g, and 37.45 ± 0.74 % mg/g. Catechin content of fresh leaf samples of Bali Cahaya Amerta (SSBCA), SBCA, and EABCA were 14.71 ± 0.28 % mg/g, 15.16 ± 0.58 % mg/g, and 35.66 ± 0.89 % mg/g. Total phenol content of DT black tea products is greater than BCA black tea products. DT black tea products appear to have decreased catechins in processing. In the processing of black tea it is necessary to decrease catechins content due to the formation of catechin polymers, namely theaflavin and thearubigin as a determinant of the quality of black tea.
 
 Keywords: black tea, Camellia Sinensis, cathecin, total phenol.