Abstract
This study aimed to determine the factors influencing Vietnamese tea export quantities, namely, the internal factors of national tea production, productivity, and cultivated areas, and the external factors of export price and world tea export quantity (excluding Vietnam). We employed a time-series linear model to estimate the magnitude as well as the sign of the aforementioned factors on Vietnam’s tea export quantity and two Box-Cox transformations called a simple back-transformed forecast and a bias-adjustment to forecast the growth rate of the Vietnamese tea export quantity until 2030. The results suggested that except for the total domestic tea production, all the proposed factors significantly affected the Vietnamese tea export quantity. The tea export quantity of other nations around the world had a significantly negative impact on Vietnamese tea that led to Vietnam’s tea exports dropping by 34 tons on average since the other countries exported 1,000 tons of tea. The forecasted outcome suggested an upward trend of Vietnamese tea exports up to 2030. In order to sustainably develop Vietnam’s tea industry, we recommend that the government should take supportive actions such as investing in in-depth tea processing to improve Vietnam’s tea export quality, focusing on post-harvest activities, investing in organic or high-value tea rather than conventional tea, continuing to accumulate land to support the growth of cultivated tea areas, and maintaining high productivity by using hybrid seeds.
Highlights
Coffee, tea, and pepper are the three main industrial crops of Vietnam that have significantly contributed to Vietnam’s GDP after Doi Moi (Tuan, 2019)
The study provided an overview of the Vietnamese tea export situation across 58 years from 1961 to 2018
The tea exports of Vietnam have had an upward trend, Vietnam witnessed a significant fall of the tea export quantity during 2013-2016, the tea export price slightly increased
Summary
Tea, and pepper are the three main industrial crops of Vietnam that have significantly contributed to Vietnam’s GDP after Doi Moi (Tuan, 2019). Tea has become an important crop because it offers certain advantages, in particular, it may help to fight against erosion and runoff in the mountains. Combat poverty in rural regions because it can bring daily income for farmers. According to Vitas (2012), Vietnam had approximately 400 thousand tea producers almost a decade ago, mostly concentrated in major producing regions such as the North Mountain (about 60%) and the Central Highlands (about 20%). The tea sector in Vietnam is occupied by six million rural workers. The size of average tea production remains relatively small, about 70% of households grow tea on an area of less than 0.2 hectares
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