Protectionism Research Articles

Новые тенденции в развитии мировой экономики и их влияние на Россию

Fragmentation processes are developing in the world economy since the 2010s. They are characterized by the active use of protectionist measures in foreign trade. Manifestations of fragmentation include a slowdown in global trade dynamics, a reduction in international capital flows relative to global GDP, and increased volatility in global commodity and financial markets. However, we can not find statistical confirmation for the full-scale development of the process of fragmentation in the world economy. It should also be noted that there are also the global debt problem, currently manifested in increasing debt servicing costs, and the problem of currency competition from both private digital currencies and competition for the US dollar from the Chinese yuan as a currency of an alternative center of the global economy. The Russian economy has experienced the full-fledged impact from the fragmentation trend through the unprecedented sanctions regime imposed on it in 2022, and has also faced the impact of increased global inflationary pressures. At the same time, the consequences of sanctions against Russia have also affected the dynamics of global commodities markets due to the “big country trap” effect. The economic policy pursued in Russia contributed to overcoming the negative short-term consequences of the sanctions shock. Currently, economic policy is faced with the task of solving medium- and long-term problems, first of all, contributing the structural changes in the Russian economy.

Major Factors that Impede Reforms in India’s Military-Industrial Complex in 2014–2023

This article intends to assess the negative impact of a number of factors on the reforming process of the Indian military-industrial complex (MIC) under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government during 2014–2023. The authors distinguish three groups of factors that mostly affect the whole structure of India’s defence industry at present. Conceptual and institutional factors include the contradictions of the basic laws and regulations of the Indian MIC, absence of the common strategy of the Indian armed forces development, politicising of the protectionist measures, offset policy implementation, bureaucracy’s impact and inter-agency contradictions. Economic factors include the problems with FDI attraction, governmental efforts to change the structure of defence expenditures by reducing the pensions to military personnel and attracting the private sector. The group of technological factors focuses on the problems with the quality and delivery delays of the defence production in India. An applied policy analysis, a retrospective analysis of data and content of the main documents allow the authors to conclude that the considered set of factors bears systemic nature and exerts a substantial negative impact on the Indian defence industry. These factors hinder the implementation of ambitious goals of the BJP government, aimed at achieving the “strategic autonomy” in the crucial fields for its national security. Moreover, the current problems of the Indian MIC are exacerbated by the impact of the domestic political situation. Consequently, resolving these problems in the short and medium term seems unlikely. However, in the longterm the reforms being carried out by the Indian government would largely offset the negative effect of the considered factors.

The The Need for the Green Economy Factors in Assessing the Development and Growth of Russian Raw Materials Companies

Approaches to assessing economic development and growth in the context of transition to a green and low-carbon economy are considered on the example of the Russian raw materials business. The implementation of carbon regulation leads not only to the expected environmental results, but also to a change in market conditions. With the spread of protectionist measures and restrictions, the assessment of the former integral indicator is distorted. It is shown that the curtailment of long-term contracts for the supply of fossil fuels and restrictions on investments in traditional energy projects adjust the assessment. In this article, its author drew attention to the need to take into account the factors of the green economy in the context of the development and growth of Russian developing companies. Indices, ratings, as well as such indicator systems as ESG may be of interest as a criterion of success. One of the factors of sustainable development and growth of raw materials companies is the number of proven reserves of recoverable resources, the potential of hard-to-recover resource and the inability to reproduce natural resources. Based on the analysis of dependencies, it is proposed to develop strategies, which allow us to identify new opportunities. The system for assessing economic development and economic growth of raw materials and energy companies, built on a single-criterion approach, should consider the conditions of subsurface use, the level of reserves, and use additional indicators to consider the impact of external circumstances. The assessment of the Russian raw materials and energy business on market principles may show negative dynamics in the short term, but in the long term, expectations are optimistic. This situation is largely explained by the inconsistency of the set goals for climate protection and the delay or inadequacy of actions taken as an example.

Pathogens associated with seafood exports from Southeast Asia to the European Union: Analysis of the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (1997–2020)

Over the years, the need for healthy food has increased the demand for seafood in the international market. However, despite the high global demand, seafood is highly perishable and may harbour pathogenic microorganisms that could be transferred to humans during handling, processing, and consumption. Therefore, establishing strict food safety standards and risk communication tools is critical to prevent the infiltration of unsafe seafood into global markets. In the global food supply chain, the European Union (EU) is the largest importer of seafood, while more than 80% of global seafood production is from Asia. Additionally, Southeast Asian countries account for 32% of global seafood production. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the microbiological safety of seafood imported from Southeast Asia to the EU by analysing alert notifications in the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) database. The RASFF is a tool used for reporting and communicating food safety-related risks among the EU Member States and other members of the RASFF network. A total of 301 notifications of pathogens in seafood originating from four Southeast Asian countries (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia) were reported by 19 EU countries, including the United Kingdom (1997-2020). More than 56% of the pathogen notifications involved crustaceans and related products. Fifty-two percent of the notifications involved seafood from Vietnam, while 30% of the notifications from EU member countries were from Italy. Vibrio spp. was the most predominant bacterial pathogen responsible for 50% of the notifications, followed by Salmonella spp. and Clostridium accounting for 38% and 2% of the notifications, respectively. Norovirus was implicated in 10% of the notifications, and this was only in clams from Vietnam. These pathogens pose a risk to consumers’ health, indicating the need to enforce stringent food safety standards in producing countries to ensure the safety of seafood exported to other parts of the world. These actions will ultimately prevent economic loss associated with the rejection, destruction or import restrictions of contaminated seafood originating from Southeast Asia to the EU.

Trade Barriers and Market Power: Evidence from Argentina's Discretionary Import Restrictions

Trade Barriers and Market Power: Evidence from Argentina's Discretionary Import Restrictions

The EU Trade Policy and Its Impact on East Asian Economies and Particularly in South Korea

Global political economy has been experiencing a new normal period through the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine War since Jan. 2020. At the same time, the trade conflict between the USA and China has been continuing since the Trump Administration and even expanding to the technology conflict under the Biden Administration that has enhanced protectionism in the world trade. Due to these conflicts, discussions on de-globalization or re-globalization are raised. The two expected or unexpected historical events have resulted in a long wave of high inflation, energy and food crises, disorder of global supply chains etc. in the global economy, which is known as a new normal era shifted from low inflation, well-functioning global supply chains based on division of labor. In order to strengthen its economic and political leadership, the Biden government has upgraded the Trump’s America First Policy to the Made in America Policy based on Chips and Science Act (CSA) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which represent a new era of protectionism. In parallel, the EU has also considered to impose Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and other Acts in Green Deal Industrial Plan (GDIP). This paper aims to analyze the new trend of protectionism in the EU. It also focuses on impacts of protectionism on South Korea in particular.

The nature of agricultural imports in Iraq and their impact in economic growth during the period 1990-2022

The research aims to determine the impact of agricultural imports and some other variables in economic growth, in which the values of agricultural imports X1, the foreign exchange rate X2, the inflation rate X3, and the population X4 were adopted as independent variables in order to measure their impact on the dependent variable of economic growth in Iraq Y. The standard model was estimated through testing the stability of the data series and for all variables and it was found that the variables have settled at the first level of the data and the first difference to them. Therefore the ARDL model was chosen to indicate the balanced relationship between imports and economic growth in the short and long term, and it was shown through the results of the research that there is a common long-term complementary relationship between economic growth and import components included in the standard model. The results confirmed that Iraq is one of the countries that have gone through difficult economic conditions and a state of political instability, turmoil, wars and economic blockade. Which caused a slowdown in its economic growth rates. The results of the unit root test showed that most of them are stable after taking the first difference, and the study found a joint integration and a long-term equilibrium relationship between the components of imports and economic growth. The results of the study showed that the impact of agricultural imports is significant and positive in economic growth. But their value indicates that the local market is not satisfied with the total agricultural products and this was consistent with economic theory and consistent with the objectives of the research. We recommend employing import revenues in a way that serves economic growth and reduce excessive imports of consumer and luxury goods. In order to be more positive in influencing economic growth, and facilitating import restrictions of raw materials and machinery to serve agricultural production capacities with attention to the agricultural sector and work to develop its production quantitatively and qualitatively and commensurate with the needs of the Iraqi economy. And research for other sources that contribute to increasing national income and thus raising the rate of economic growth.

Statistics of Industrial Protectionism. Part I: The Formation of Organizational and Institutional Mechanisms

Numerous decisions made by the Ukrainian government in the conditions of a state of war require high-quality data. Among the identified priorities for the recovery of the domestic economy is the development of strategic industries, the implementation of which will necessitate new state decisions, along with statistical data to assess their outcomes. Historical parallels between the situation at the beginning of the 20th century and recent events serve as the basis for the assumption that the answer to the question of "How to accelerate the economic recovery of Ukraine?" should be sought not in the analysis of contemporary policies in developed countries but primarily in the investigation of retrospective mechanisms that facilitated the growth of existing industries and the creation of new ones. The aim of the article is to examine historical facts related to the implementation of industrial protectionism in the challenging conditions of war and post-war recovery in Great Britain. It seeks to identify the organizational and institutional mechanisms of the statistical system that facilitated the implementation and assessment of the outcomes of such decisions. Furthermore, the article aims to formulate conclusions that can be applied to Ukraine. It has been established that the First World War was a pivotal moment in the economic policy of Great Britain, directing it towards protectionism. The catalyst for this shift was the realization that critical national industries were in a precarious state due to the lack of imported supplies of various goods, mainly synthetic dyes and chemical ingredients, upon which the economy and security depended. This prompted the country's parliament and government to regulate industry and implement tools of state aid and protection against foreign competitors. Along with this, it led to organizational and institutional changes in the statistical system, as well as shifts in the directions and methodological approaches to monitoring the obtained results and the actual introduction of statistics related to industrial protectionism. It has been demonstrated that historical parallels during the COVID-19 pandemic are evident in terms of both the identified dependencies on the import of active pharmaceutical ingredients and other substances (two-thirds of production concentrated in China) and the government's actions to address the situation and changes in statistics.
 Drawing from the experience of Great Britain, it is justified that the introduction of measures to develop strategic sectors in Ukraine, accompanied by state incentives and protective tariffs, necessitates the modernization of the organizational and institutional mechanisms of the national statistical system. A component of these processes should be the digitization of functions assigned to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, which would allow for obtaining high-quality operational data for both decision-making and evaluating their outcomes.

A Comparative Study of India’s Foreign Trade in Pre and Post Reform Period

Foreign trade has been playing a vital role in the economic progress and prosperity of every country. In modern days foreign trade has assumed an immense prominence and substance for economic development of a country because of interdependence of economies, increasing specialization and joining regional cooperation. In 1991, the major program of economic reform were introduced which emphasize on external sector wherein the protective tariffs were decreased, changes into foreign investment and the restrictive import licensing system was relaxed and simplified. After the New economic reforms, India’s foreign trade has undergone substantial changes, volume of trade rose up and composition of trade was also frequently changed. The main objective of the paper is to study the trends of India’s foreign trade pre and post new economic reforms in India. The entire data for the present study is collected from the secondary sources. The collected data has been analyzed by using Paired t-test from SPSS software package and graphs. The findings of this paper said that there is positive relationship between economic reforms and India’s foreign trade. A push has been given to the exports but analyzes says that the increasing rate of imports is higher in comparison to the increasing rate of exports.

The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Import and Consumer Prices in The US And Their Economic Consequences.

This article examines the impact of the US-China trade war on import and consumer prices in the US and the economic consequences it brings. The analysis will first take an overview of the chronology of established tariffs before reviewing their effects on prices. By sourcing from data websites and analysing past articles, the author has concluded that the establishment of these protectionist tariffs has had a negative impact on inflation, driving up import and consumer prices. This is because of the rise in price upon import due to tariffs. The article then takes a turn to analyse how the rise in prices will affect the economy. The author will consider the economic impacts based on four main factors: inflation, employment, incentive, and wage. After thorough analysis, it is concluded that the US has ‘sabotaged’ its own economy with its tariffs, and it is highly encouraged for the US to take back tariffs to normalise trade.

Эффект палладиума: ценности великих держав в эпоху искусственного интеллекта

The purpose of the article is to identify the features of the development of modern great powers against the background of their digital contradictions and value specifics in order to determine scenarios for the development of the future political world order. The methodological lens was the principles of critical discourse analysis of academic literature, comparative analysis of value orientations, as well as the normative basis for the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies in modern great powers – Russia, the USA and China. As a hypothesis, the author suggests the Palladium effect, according to which a great power, being given the opportunity to change the world order based on its interests, will strive for this using modern technologies, appealing to justice and taking into account its own value orientations. The Palladium effect was studied by the author in the context of the analytical verification of the "Thucydides trap". L. Althusser's theory of ideology and a number of theses of modern realism were also taken into account as a conceptual framework. The conclusions indicate that the key to the emergence of an economically and politically profitable digital environment, comfortable for a great power, is its tax residents-digital corporations that develop and distribute digital standards in other countries. In this situation, Russia strategically needs to initiate protectionist measures for its digital corporations, a policy of supporting them abroad, create favorable conditions for public-private partnerships, financing, and attracting venture capital in the field of artificial intelligence technology development in order to preserve its value and digital sovereignty (as forms of state sovereignty). In addition, key trends in the field of AI competition and variants of the axiomachy (value confrontation) of the great powers are identified, and the main scenarios for the evolution of the political world order are proposed – Triplex Mundi, Duplex Mundi and Multiplex Mundi.

Slow recovery of natural ecosystems as an important factor restricting regional coordinated development

Climate change and human activity are the main causes of ecological degradation, placing huge pressure on ecological security and sustainable development (SD) worldwide. As a typical agricultural region and an important industrial base, the contradiction between economic construction and ecological civilization construction in Northeast China has become increasingly acute. However, so far, it has not made much progress. To address this, we synthesized 28 economic, social, and ecological indicators and explored the key drivers and spatial effects of SD and ecosystem services (ESs) in Northeast China. The results show that the development of the ESs level lagged that of SD, with the coupling coordination degree (CCD) increasing by only 33 % from 2005 to 2020, almost equal to that of ESs (+35 %) but far lower than that of the SD level (+133 %). Hence, a small increase in ESs resulted in low CCD levels. Additionally, economic factors (fertilizer use, proportions of built-up land, etc.) and the proportion of forestland were the key factors driving the spatiotemporal variation of the CCD. In terms of the current CCD changes in Northeast China, local stakeholders and policymakers should focus more on industrialization and food security issues by restoring degraded ecosystems and implementing positive ecological measures to increase the CCD. This study provides an explicit analytical framework for clarifying the complex relationship between ESs and SD, which can help scientifically discern the balance between economic and ecological development. Our findings highlight the achievable prospects of a win–win situation in society and nature.

Resource Potential of the Oil and Gas Complex of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and Its Development Prospects

Abstract. In recent years, the Russian oil and gas complex has been undergoing sanctions and restrictions related to the political situation in the country and in the world, which negatively affects the economic development of the country. The consequences of sanctions include: disruption of logistics of export supplies of oil and gas raw materials, replacement of Russian hydrocarbons with supplies from other countries, reduction of foreign investment and participation of foreign companies in Russian oil and gas projects, restriction of imports for the supply of equipment and technologies, etc. First of all, these problems cause the need to expand sales markets and build new production and logistics chains, replacing imported equipment and technologies with domestic ones. In order to solve the difficult economic relations that have arisen with the EU countries, it is proposed to redirect the market for oil and gas raw materials towards Asian countries. In this regard, the study of oil and gas resources of the Far East, including the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) is a very relevant task. The purpose of this article is to identify the level of availability of mineral resources of the oil and gas complex. The object of the study is the oil and gas complex of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia): industrial balance reserves and forecast resources of oil and gas fields in the region, and the main subsurface users of oil and gas fields. The subject of the study is the analysis and assessment of the state of the mineral resource base of the oil and gas resources of the region and the prospects for its development. Based on the analysis of the current state of the potential of the oil and gas resources of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), as well as a review of the global oil and gas market, promising directions for the development of the regional oil and gas complex are identified in the article.

Sanctions and the exchange rate in time

SUMMARY We test the predictions of recent theoretical studies of the impact of sanctions on the exchange rate. We build a database of exchange rates and sanctions spanning 1914–45 – an era when both large and small economies were targeted by multilateral sanction packages, facilitating comparisons with today’s Russian war episode. We estimate the dynamic response of the exchange rate in a panel of sanction episodes at weekly frequency using local projections, conditioning on the type of sanctions taken. We tease out mechanisms through which sanctions affect the exchange rate by estimating their effects on macroeconomic variables plausibly acting as transmission channels. Our estimates suggest that import restrictions, export restrictions, asset freezes and trade embargoes lead to exchange rate effects consistent with theory, though the precision of the measured effects varies across sanction type. These findings suggest that recent models of the effects of sanctions on the exchange rate do not just match developments in today’s specific Russia episode but have broader applicability. It follows that the direction of exchange rate movements is not an adequate metric of the success or failure of sanctions but a reflection of the type and scale of the measures taken.

FREE TRADE OR PROTECTIONISM? TRADE BARRIERS AND TRADE POLICY OF THE EU

For years, a number of researchers have questioned whether there is an implicit impulse for protectionism hidden behind the tariff and non-tariff liberalization clauses put forward in all new EU agreements, as well as in the Union's participation in various formats of multilateral trade negotiations. On the other hand, the introduction of protectionist measures implemented by many countries around the world is increasingly being observed. In order to summarize and clarify these trends in the development and restructuring of the global trade system and the EU's place in it, the article first summarizes some insights from economic theory and empirical research on free trade and protectionism, then it examines the pre-pandemic trade barriers vis-à-vis the EU, and finally it assesses the “new framework” of bilateral and multilateral preferential trade agreements in the EU trade policy.

The Outlook of Sino-US Relations Based on the Prisoner's Dilemma

The Prisoner's Dilemma represents a model in game theory which elucidates the choice between cooperation and betrayal faced by two self-interested individuals. Similarly, the US-China relationship confronts a comparable dilemma necessitating collaboration based on common interests, while also safeguarding own interests, such as security and trade. Nonetheless, the present US-China relationship is grappling with numerous challenges and obstacles, such as trade protectionism and regional tensions. As a result, the future of US-China relations is uncertain. This paper analyses the outlook of China-US relations through the lens of the Prisoner's Dilemma model. Based on the analysis, it is recommended that China and the United States enhance their strategic dialogue and cooperation to address global challenges effectively. They should also work together to establish a new type of international relationship as a community of destiny for all humanity. This could not be improved as it already adheres to the principles and lacks context.

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF BORDER CLOSURE BY THE NIGERIA GOVERNMENT ON REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE WEST AFRICA REGION

Abstract
 Nigeria is the acclaimed giant of Africa in specific ramifications. The country is bordered by four African countries namely Cameroon, Chad, Benin, and Niger, and emphatically the hub-nub of economic survival of many African nations such as Togo and Ghana. However, Nigeria’s government recently announced the closure of its borders with these neighboring countries albeit, temporarily, and cited illegal importation of goods and services from these countries which has a consequential damaging effect on her economy. This paper interrogates the reasons and consequences of Nigeria’s Government’s action on border relations with neighboring countries. Adopting the descriptive design method, the research work relied heavily on secondary sources of data collection. Proximate stakeholders such as importers and exporters, Nigerian farmers, and relevant government agencies on border control were also interacted with. Using protectionist theory to analyze trends of actions, the theory argues that protectionist trade policies will always lead to an improved economic result. Findings reveal that despite short-run socio-political and economic gains, protectionism negates the principle of globalization and free trade principles which both the Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS) and Africa Union(AU) promote among its member states including Nigeria that are signatories to the free trade protocols. The paper recommends among others, that the Nigeria Government should address her internal challenges within its border security apparatus to avert the double jeopardy of violating border relations principles and creating a trade war with her neighbors

Perspectives On International Political Economy: Labor and Environmental Standards Should Be in World Trade Organizations?

The concept of sustainable development and environmental protection are among the main objectives of the World Trade Organization. For this purpose, the labor and environmental standards of the World Trade Organization are also included in the agreement. In 1994, the World Trade Organization Trade and Environment Committee was established in this context, and international organizations joined it. So, in this paper analyze that labor and environmental standards should be in a Trade Organization unbiased way. This study examines the complex rhetoric surrounding the incorporation of labor and environmental norms into the World Trade Organization (WTO) structure. The phenomenon of trade globalization has profoundly affected the interdependence of economies, prompting inquiries into the ethical aspects of international commerce. Incorporating labor and environmental norms into the World Trade Organization (WTO) has emerged as a central topic of controversy. Advocates contend that incorporating such measures is paramount in promoting sustainable growth, guaranteeing equitable labor standards, and addressing global environmental deterioration. However, integrating these standards could impose economic constraints, impede the free trade flow, and even result in the adoption of protectionist measures. This study explores multiple viewpoints, evaluates the possible consequences, and evaluates the practicality of integrating labor and environmental concerns within the World Trade Organization (WTO). This study makes a valuable contribution to the continuing discourse surrounding the development of a more inclusive and responsible international political economy by assessing its effects on economic growth, social justice, and environmental sustainability.

Polysemy in Economic News about Inflation and Import Restrictions on CNN Arabic

This research aims to reveal, understand, and analyze words containing polysemy in economic news about inflation and import restrictions on CNN Arabic so that everything is correct in understanding the news. The object of this research is two news stories about the economy on CNN Arabic. This research was conducted using a qualitative descriptive method: collecting, analyzing, and describing data. The research results showed that twenty-four words containing polysemy were found in economic news on CNN Arabic. It includes polysemy of nouns, verbs, and adjectives, with details of thirteen noun words, seven verb words, and four adjective words. The factors causing polysemy in economic news are shifts in sentence usage and structure and the influence of foreign languages. Most of the meanings of polysemy in economic news on CNN Arabic are metaphors of lexical meaning, and these words can be known by looking at a dictionary or analyzing sentence structure.

The AFL-CIO, the U.S. Balance of Payments, and the End of the Post–World War II Liberal Order, 1965–1973

This article analyzes the AFL-CIO’s international economic policy activism in the late 1960s and early 1970s within the context of the collapse of Bretton Woods monetary system. It shows that AFL-CIO economists developed a far-reaching critique of multinational corporations that encompassed not only concerns about import competition and capital flight but also charges that multinational firms contributed to the United States’ balance of payments woes. Fighting charges that union wages drove inflation, labor leaders maintained that private capital outflows and intracompany transactions exacerbated U.S. payments deficits. They therefore advocated for capital controls and import restrictions as alternatives to fiscal and monetary restraint. Their efforts to preserve the expansionary policies underpinning postwar liberalism, however, ultimately failed. By calling attention to the AFL-CIO’s failed activism in international monetary politics, the article offers a new vantage point for understanding organized labor’s declining influence in the last third of the twentieth century.