Abstract

Climate change and human activity are the main causes of ecological degradation, placing huge pressure on ecological security and sustainable development (SD) worldwide. As a typical agricultural region and an important industrial base, the contradiction between economic construction and ecological civilization construction in Northeast China has become increasingly acute. However, so far, it has not made much progress. To address this, we synthesized 28 economic, social, and ecological indicators and explored the key drivers and spatial effects of SD and ecosystem services (ESs) in Northeast China. The results show that the development of the ESs level lagged that of SD, with the coupling coordination degree (CCD) increasing by only 33 % from 2005 to 2020, almost equal to that of ESs (+35 %) but far lower than that of the SD level (+133 %). Hence, a small increase in ESs resulted in low CCD levels. Additionally, economic factors (fertilizer use, proportions of built-up land, etc.) and the proportion of forestland were the key factors driving the spatiotemporal variation of the CCD. In terms of the current CCD changes in Northeast China, local stakeholders and policymakers should focus more on industrialization and food security issues by restoring degraded ecosystems and implementing positive ecological measures to increase the CCD. This study provides an explicit analytical framework for clarifying the complex relationship between ESs and SD, which can help scientifically discern the balance between economic and ecological development. Our findings highlight the achievable prospects of a win–win situation in society and nature.

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