Adjuvant endocrine therapy reduces the risk of recurrence and improves survival among women with hormone receptor–positive breast cancer (1). Because most breast cancers, especially those among postmenopausal women, are hormone receptor positive, hundreds of thousands of women worldwide initiate adjuvant endocrine treatment each year. Historically, the standard recommendation for such patients has been 5 years of therapy with the selective estrogen receptor modulator tamoxifen (1). Two large randomized clinical trials—the Breast International Group Trial 1–98 (BIG 1–98) (2) and the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination trial (3)—have shown that initial adjuvant endocrine treatment with aromatase inhibitors yields improved disease-free survival compared with tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor–positive breast cancer. These findings have led many oncologists to adopt aromatase inhibitors as their preferred initial adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal women with hormone receptor–positive breast cancer (4). However, interpretation of these trial results is complicated by new pharmacogenomic data that suggest that the clinical benefit of tamoxifen may vary according to the cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2D6 genotype of the patient (5–7). CYP2D6 is the cytochrome P450 isoform that is mainly responsible for catalyzing the conversion of tamoxifen to endoxifen (8), the tamoxifen metabolite that is thought to be the primary mediator of estrogen-dependent suppression of cell proliferation (9). The CYP2D6 gene has multiple allelic variants, some of which, including the *4 allele, result in the loss of CYP2D6 enzyme function. Population genetic studies (10–12) have revealed that variations in the CYP2D6 gene sequence correspond to pharmacogenomic variations in endoxifen levels among women taking tamoxifen. For example, in a study of 80 newly diagnosed breast cancer patients who were beginning tamoxifen treatment, Jin et al. (10) found that those who carried either the homozygous (*4/*4) or the heterozygous (wt/*4) variant genotype of CYP2D6 had statistically significantly lower mean plasma endoxifen levels (20.0 and 43.1 nM, respectively) than those who carried the homozygous wild-type (wt/wt) genotype (78.0 nM). Additional studies have also supported the finding of a CYP2D6 gene dose effect on plasma concentrations of endoxifen (11,12). These data prompted a Food and Drug Administration advisory panel to recommend in October 2006 that a warning label be added to tamoxifen; the panel cited the new pharmacogenomic studies (5,12) indicating that the drug is less effective in women who carry a mutation in one of the enzymes used to metabolize tamoxifen than in those who do not. Both of the landmark clinical studies (2,3) that revealed improved disease-free survival outcomes for up-front adjuvant treatment with aromatase inhibitors vs tamoxifen accrued patients irrespective of their CYP2D6 gene mutation status. Given the link between CYP2D6 mutation status and compromised clinical outcomes among mutation carriers on tamoxifen, it is likely that aromatase inhibitors would be the preferred treatment for a woman with deficiencies in tamoxifen metabolism, such as those heterozygous (wt/*4) or homozygous (*4/*4) for the *4 mutation of CYP2D6. However, for women who do not carry a CYP2D6 gene mutation that affects tamoxifen metabolism, the decision about which type of adjuvant endocrine therapy to undergo is not as clear. To date, no genotype analysis of patients who participated in the randomized trials comparing adjuvant tamoxifen with aromatase inhibitors has been performed. However, it is reasonable to infer that if these trials had been restricted to women with wild-type tamoxifen metabolism, the women in the tamoxifen arms would have had better outcomes than those that were reported. To study the magnitude of difference between reported outcomes on tamoxifen and the estimated efficacy of tamoxifen in patients with-out CYP2D6 gene mutations, we constructed a decision-analytic model using data from CYP2D6 pharmacogenomic studies and used the model to evaluate whether an aromatase inhibitor or tamoxifen is the optimal initial treatment choice for the large majority of postmenopausal women who do not carry a mutation that affects the function of the CYP2D6 enzyme.