Taiwan Presidential Election Research Articles

Taiwan's 2008 Presidential Elections: An Analysis of What Happened, and What May Happen Next

This Issue Paper from the Independence Institute examines the March 22, 2008, presidential election in Taiwan. The voters gave a landslide 58% victory to Ma YingJeou, the presidential candidate of the KMT (Kuomintang, or “Nationalist Party”).The incumbent President, Chen Shui-Bian, was term-limited, but many voters nevertheless appeared to be expressing a loss of confidence in his party, the DPP (“Democratic Progressive Party”). In particular, voters were dismayed by DPP’s poor management of the executive branch, and by the corruption scandals involving the President’s family, which undermined the DPP’s reformist reputation. In addition, the KMT presented a much more attractive and energetic candidate than it had in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, which the DPP won.Voters were very concerned about Taiwan’s economic slowdown. Voters also heeded the strong anti-DPP message sent by the United States government, which has criticized the DPP for supposedly provoking China by taking small steps towards formal independence.Given that Taiwan already is already independent and sovereign in every practical sense, the voters appear to have made a pragmatic decision to mend relations with the U.S., whose military is the ultimate guarantor of Taiwan’s present-day de facto independence. Notably, the KMT’s Ma ensured his victory by promising to be a vigorous defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty. Over the last eight years, the DPP has led an appropriate campaign to strengthen Taiwan’s national consciousness. Ironically, it was Ma who took the best advantage of Taiwan consciousness, by running a campaign to appeal broadly to all Taiwanese, as opposed to the DPP’s tactics of appealing to ethnic resentments.Once Ma takes office on May 20, he will face formidable challenges in dealing with the corrupt old guard of the KMT party, which dominates Taiwan’s legislature. A great deal must be done to strengthen Taiwan’s defense capabilitiesRather than being intimidated by “the rise of China,” the United States and Taiwan should recognize that even powerful dictatorships can be inherently fragile. The long term objective of the U.S.-Taiwan alliance should be maintaining Taiwan’s sovereignty, and searching for ways to help restore the sovereignty of the Chinese people themselves, as well the sovereignty of the captive nations currently imprisoned in the Chinese empire.

Convergence in election campaigns

The domination of mass media is exemplified by candidates’ camps attempting to gain media exposure as a top priority of their campaign strategies; however, the popularity of social media has gradually changed this trend. This article used the 2012 Taiwan presidential election to examine the relationship between social media and mass media. By interviewing campaign staffers, journalists, and scholars, this article developed the concept of the candidate’s frame to distinguish from the media frame and employed frame contest to view the interplay. The findings demonstrate that candidates attempted to view their Facebook pages as the headwaters of mass media and intermediation can be broadened under this situation.

Global social media, local context

Purpose – Social media connect individuals in different geographical location and allow people of different political and cultural backgrounds to discuss and participate in events that occur in distant corners of the globe. But, this does not suggest that social media promote homogeneous globalization. Rather, the local and its interactions with the global or regional views remain a powerful force in the realm of social media. The purpose of this paper is to take on the local/global factors in the social media service Twitter and analyzed the keyword-captured Chinese language tweets relating to the 2012 presidential election in Taiwan. Design/methodology/approach – Language code usage was used to sort out the community origins of Chinese language tweets relating to the election, given that distinct types and codes of Chinese characters are used within each political border. Community-specific patterns of communication were identified by cross-correlating language styles, tweeting frequency and participating users. Social network analysis was used to further characterize the local factors in the global social media. Findings – The authors found that the language styles and character types can be used to identify the regions to which the users belong. The authors were able to identify community-specific patterns of communication and reconstruct a social network that exhibits local characteristics. Originality/value – The results demonstrate that language code can be used to identify the community origin of Chinese tweets. This will enable fine-grain content-based analysis of the Chinese language social media.

Political connections, corporate governance and preferential bank loans

The presidential election in Taiwan during 2000 resulted in the first political changeover in more than fifty years from the ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT), to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). In 2004, the KMT was expected to win, but eventually lost to the DPP. We use these two exogenous events to investigate three issues: how political connections are related to preferential bank loans, how the entrenched position of the ruling party affects the types of preferential bank loans and how corporate governance is related to preferential bank loans. We find that KMT-connected (DPP-connected) firms were associated with higher (lower) abnormal returns before the 2004 election. This pattern of returns was reversed after the unexpected result. Moreover, we find that political connections were positively correlated with preferential bank loans. However, the types of preferential bank loans differed between KMT-connected and DPP-connected firms due to differences in the entrenched power of the ruling party. Finally, we find that corporate governance is negatively correlated with preferential bank loans, probably because firms with good corporate governance have more alternative financial sources.

Information and Heterogeneity in Issue Voting: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Election in Taiwan

A voter's capacity to acquire and retain information moderates the relationship between issues and the vote. Issues differ in their distance from the voter's personal experience. Proximate issues, such as personal economic conditions, affect the vote decisions of highly informed and less informed voters equally. Distant issues, such as national economic conditions and foreign affairs, affect the vote of highly informed voters but not less informed voters. The 2008 presidential election on Taiwan provides a critical test of the effect of information on issue voting. Unification with mainland China versus Taiwan independence is the most important issue in the 2008 election, and voters with higher levels of political information show a larger effect of the issue on their vote. The national economy is also a significant predictor of vote choice, but only for highly informed voters. Personal economic conditions and other proximate issues are not significant predictors of the vote at any information level.

Examining the Perceptual Gap and Behavioral Intention in the Perceived Effects of Polling News in the 2008 Taiwan Presidential Election

This study examines the impact of polling news in the 2008 Taiwan presidential election from a third-person effect perspective. Results of a survey using a random sample of 1,097 respondents indicate that they perceived news about election polls to have a greater effect on others than themselves, regardless of whether the effects were perceived as negative or positive. Furthermore, findings show that attention to election polling news enhanced the perceived positive effects on self and others. Findings also point to a link between poll credibility and perceived effects on self and others. The less credible elections polls are perceived, the larger is the self—other perceptual gap. Finally, concern about the negative effects of election polling news on others is found to motivate respondents to consider protective behavior. However, findings show that perceived positive effects of such news on self resulted in intention to engage in campaign discourse. Theoretical implications of the findings to advance the third-person effect research are discussed.

Economic Voting in Taiwan: The Significance of Education and Lifetime Economic Experiences

An analysis of the 1996 and 2004 Taiwan presidential elections demonstrates that the voters' overall economic experiences under the dominant Kuomintang and level of education mediated the effect of short-term economic conditions on individual vote choice before and after the first power transition.

Stock price volatility and overreaction in a political crisis: The effects of corporate governance and performance

Stock price volatility increases in times of political crisis. In examining the effects of corporate governance and performance on price volatility and the market's overreaction during the political crisis triggered by the controversial Taiwan presidential election of 2004, our results show that companies with better corporate governance or performance experience less price volatility and less increase in volatility during such a crisis. Furthermore, the results show that corporate performance and ownership structure have significant effects on the stock price overreaction.

Issue Familiarity and Framing Effects of Online Campaign Coverage: Event Perception, Issue Attitudes, and the 2004 Presidential Election in Taiwan

This study tests how two distinguishable frames identified from Mainland Chinese online coverage of Taiwan's 2004 presidential election campaign influenced U.S. and Chinese audiences' event perception and attitudes toward Mainland-Taiwan relations. Employing a 2times2×3 between-subjects experiment, this study highlights the moderating effect of issue familiarity. Findings show a significant impact of framing intensity on the event perception of those who may not be familiar with the topic, in addition to a significant influence exerted by frame type on event perception. The roles of familiarity and other factors involved in framing effects on issue attitudes are also discussed from a comparative perspective.

From “Highly Dangerous Water” to “Highly Tranquil Water”? Cross-Strait Relations After Taiwan's Presidential Election

Abstract This article makes a compelling case for maintaining that long-term peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait will remain elusive until more fundamental adjustments have been made by the three major players—Beijing, Taipei, and Washington—in the approaches they take toward one another and conclusions have been drawn about whether the outcome can lead to strategic reconciliation and compromise. In other words, to transform the Taiwan Strait from “highly dangerous water” 1 to “highly tranquil water,” all three sides need to come up with some “new thinking” so that a more permanent solution to this long overdue historical issue can be found for the sake of peace and stability in the region.

Do Campaigns Matter? The Effect of the Campaign in the 2004 Taiwan Presidential Election+

Do Campaigns Matter? The Effect of the Campaign in the 2004 Taiwan Presidential Election+

Taiwan Strait Crisis Management: The Role of Confidence-Building Measures

Abstract The 2008 Taiwan presidential elections inspired the hope of creating a new atmosphere in Cross-Strait relations. It is to be hoped that now that Chen Shui-bian has passed from the leadership scene both sides will see the geopolitical benefit in mutually improving Cross-Strait relations. Should that prove to be the case, then the time may finally be ripe to explore Cross-Strait confidence-building measures (CBMs) as a vehicle for building greater mutual trust and understanding aimed at creating a more stable, positive geopolitical environment. Toward that end, this article, or talking paper, identifies a variety of CBMs that may prove to be effective in advancing Cross-Strait relations.

Cross‐sectional and longitudinal differences in social dominance orientation and right wing authoritarianism as a function of political power and societal change

Changes in social dominance orientation (SDO) and right wing authoritarianism (RWA) over time were examined using cross‐sectional and longitudinal analysis of three waves of survey data before and after the 2004 Presidential election in Taiwan. A functionalist perspective (or group socialization model) predicts that: (i) supporters of a dominant political group that has held power for over 50 years should be higher in SDO and RWA than their opposition; and (ii) a formerly subordinate group should increase in SDO and RWA following electoral victory, whereas the dominant group should decrease following defeat. The first hypothesis was supported, whereas support for the second was mixed; the low‐powered group increased in SDO and RWA following victory, but the high‐powered group was unchanged. It appears easier to acquire the mindset associated with power than to lose it. Longitudinal path modelling showed that SDO became less connected to identity and political party support after an election that consolidated societal and regime change; the role of RWA shifted even more dramatically, from being connected to one political party and social identity pre‐election to an opposing one post‐election. Longitudinal path models slightly favoured a group socialization account over personality or social identity accounts in modelling correlations between SDO, RWA, political party support, and social identities over time.

Seizing the Opportunity for Change in the Taiwan Strait

Taiwan's presidential election in March will usher in a moderate on cross-strait issues, offering a potential shift in cross-strait relations if Washington and Beijing understand the deceptive change toward moderation in Taiwan and what to do to reinforce it.

Resolving Legitimacy Problems: A Case Study of the Shooting in Taiwan's 2004 Presidential Election

Fierce debate continues over Taiwan's 2004 presidential election. The election-eve shooting of President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu is the pivotal factor in these discussions. Most analyses of the shooting incident have been more focussed on inferring the truth about this criminal case, and debate about whether or not the incumbent president benefited from this shooting. (1) However, when solving a criminal case without significant and direct evidence, any hypothetic deductive logic is just one possibility. The opposition, which lost the presidential election by 0.2 per cent of the vote, accused the incumbent bloc of using the shooting incident to mislead voters into sympathising with Chen Shui-bian. (2) These contentions inevitably caused the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results to be questioned. The concept of legitimacy contrasts with the concept of legality. As a great deal of the classic literature in politics and jurisprudence has already discussed these concepts, no attempt is made in this article to discuss them in detail. The focus here is on forward-looking thinking--how to reduce the possibility that any such incident like the 2004 election-eve shooting could occur in the future. (3) The article begins by considering the normative aspect: Should any legitimacy be given to the outcome of the presidential election? Then the positive aspect is examined: How do we redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results? How do we avert doubts about the legitimacy of future presidential elections? Accordingly, the specific purposes of this article are: firstly, to show the difficulty in resolving the current dissension over the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results during the process of seeking answers for the normative and positive questions; and secondly, to remind researchers of the importance of the forward-looking aspect of this serious issue. Methodology The focus here is on the benchmark approach abstracted from Ronald Coase by Bingyuang Hsiung. (4) Coase's approach can be summarised as follows: setting a reference point, treating this point as a benchmark and then comparing and contrasting this benchmark with the selected topics. Hsiung also suggests: we apply the benchmark approach, we have to consider why to choose this benchmark point but not the others. (5) In economics, benefit and cost are mentioned in the same breath, and cost-benefit analysis is also a useful tool in many studies. For example, if the expected benefits of a specific policy are greater than the expected costs, then implementing the policy will add to total social welfare. Nonetheless, the benefit of Taiwan's presidential election results without legitimacy problems may not be easy to measure. For individuals, the benefits of legitimacy are highly subjective. When the outcome of an election is legitimate, some people may be quite satisfied with it, but others may not care. How can we compare, for different people, the degree of benefit in having no legitimacy problem; or how can we use a measurable index to make comparisons? Even if some indirect measurements are used, the results of comparison may not be clear. When the outcome of an election lacks legitimacy and needs resolution, using the concept of costs is clear and objective. In the case of the 2004 presidential election in Taiwan, if a re-vote is one method to redeem its legitimacy, then the functional expenses that Taiwan's Central Election Commission (CEC) would pay for holding the re-vote is a definite cost. If a multi-party political consultation is another method to redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results, then the resources that the two rival blocs need to invest in the consultation are measurable costs. For instance, each bloc may need to hold its own plenary session to reach common consent, and the two blocs may negotiate many times with each other about confirming the legitimacy of the presidential election results. …

Resolving the Legitimacy Problems: A Case Study of the Shooting in Taiwan's 2004 Presidential Election

Resolving Legitimacy Problems: A Case Study of the Shooting in Taiwan's 2004 Presidential Election Tzu-Wen Sung Fierce debate continues over Taiwan's 2004 presidential election. The election-eve shooting of President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu is the pivotal factor in these discussions. Most analyses of the shooting incident have been more focussed on inferring the truth about this criminal case, and debate about whether or not the incumbent president benefited from this shooting.1 However, when solving a criminal case without significant and direct evidence, any hypothetic deductive logic is just one possibility. The opposition, which lost the presidential election by 0.2 per cent of the vote, accused the incumbent bloc of using the shooting incident to mislead voters into sympathising with Chen Shui-bian.2 These contentions inevitably caused the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results to be questioned. The concept of legitimacy contrasts with the concept of legality. As a great deal of the classic literature in politics and jurisprudence has already discussed these concepts, no attempt is made in this article to discuss them in detail. The focus here is on forward-looking thinking — how to reduce the possibility that any such incident like the 2004 election-eve shooting could occur in the future.3 The article begins by considering the normative aspect: Should any legitimacy be given to the outcome of the presidential election? Then the positive aspect is examined: How do we redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results? How do we avert doubts about the legitimacy of future presidential elections? Accordingly, the specific purposes of this article are: firstly, to show the difficulty in resolving the current dissension [End Page 335] over the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results during the process of seeking answers for the normative and positive questions; and secondly, to remind researchers of the importance of the forward-looking aspect of this serious issue. Methodology The focus here is on the benchmark approach abstracted from Ronald Coase by Bingyuang Hsiung.4 Coase's approach can be summarised as follows: setting a reference point, treating this point as a benchmark and then comparing and contrasting this benchmark with the selected topics. Hsiung also suggests: "When we apply the benchmark approach, we have to consider why to choose this benchmark point but not the others."5 In economics, benefit and cost are mentioned in the same breath, and cost-benefit analysis is also a useful tool in many studies. For example, if the expected benefits of a specific policy are greater than the expected costs, then implementing the policy will add to total social welfare. Nonetheless, the benefit of Taiwan's presidential election results without legitimacy problems may not be easy to measure. For individuals, the benefits of legitimacy are highly subjective. When the outcome of an election is legitimate, some people may be quite satisfied with it, but others may not care. How can we compare, for different people, the degree of benefit in having no legitimacy problem; or how can we use a measurable [End Page 336] index to make comparisons? Even if some indirect measurements are used, the results of comparison may not be clear. When the outcome of an election lacks legitimacy and needs resolution, using the concept of costs is clear and objective. In the case of the 2004 presidential election in Taiwan, if a re-vote is one method to redeem its legitimacy, then the functional expenses that Taiwan's Central Election Commission (CEC) would pay for holding the re-vote is a definite cost. If a multi-party political consultation is another method to redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results, then the resources that the two rival blocs need to invest in the consultation are measurable costs. For instance, each bloc may need to hold its own plenary session to reach common consent, and the two blocs...

How Significant Events and Economic Factors Influence Taiwan's Outbound Tourism to China

It was not until 1987 that the relations between Taiwan and China began to thaw, opening the door for cross-strait civilian contacts. In recent years, with China's rapid economic development, ever-increasing numbers of Taiwanese citizens have been traveling to China, in spite of the fact that official cross-strait relations remain hostile, with political and even military crises often occurring. How do such factors affect Taiwanese people's willingness to travel to China? This study is intended to discuss how significant events (such as the "Special State-to-State Relation" proposition, Taiwan's presidential elections, and the SARS outbreak) and economic factors influence Taiwan's outbound tourism to China. Quarterly data used in this study cover the 41-quarter period from 2Q 1994 to 2Q 2004. A unit root test ensures that all of the estimated variables are stationary; then, a casual model is developed to estimate how economic variables and significant events influence Taiwan's outbound travels to China. Empirical results show that significant political events do not remarkably reduce the Taiwanese people's willingness to travel to China, while the SARS outbreak had a greater impact. On the other hand, income, price, and outbound travels of the previous period are significant independent variables, while variables such as exchange rate and the prices of alternative destination tours are less significant.

The Interplay of Candidate-Initiated and Journalist-Initiated Agendas in the 1996 and 2004 Taiwan Presidential Elections

This study examines the interplay of candidate-initiated issue agendas and journalist-initiated issue agendas in the 1996 and 2004 Taiwan presidential elections. The study indicates that both agendas influenced each other, but unequally—the candidate-initiated issue agenda had a greater impact on the journalist-initiated agenda than vice versa. The results were interpreted with discussions of the media's campaign reporting and the candidates’ campaign management in Taiwan.

Testing the Immune System of a Newly Born Democracy: The 2004 Presidential Election in Taiwan

This article examines the closely fought March 2004 Taiwan presidential election, in which the difference between the winner and the runner-up was a mere 0.22 percent, and which was characterized by a high level of partisan passions and distrust. This election was also notable because the rules governing disputes during presidential elections had never been used, since the 2004 presidential election was only the third instance of a popular election of a president. The article examines the context and structure of electoral contest and the various dimensions of the controversy, identifies the avenues for ”electoral dispute settlement,” the role played by different political and social actors, as well as that of various institutions in this heated electoral drama. The authors show that three sets of agents played a role in increasing the legitimacy of a legal solution to the problem, and thus to remove the possibility of greater political conflict, namely the United States, the mass media and the general public, and third and most critically, leaders from both camps, who made compromises and concessions at crucial moments. In contrast with the latter actors, the military, the judiciary, and the Central Election Committee (CEC) managed to remain neutral. The authors conclude that the newly installed Taiwanese democracy is probably less fragile than it appears to be, as it passed the litmus test of acceptance by electoral losers of a dispute settlement mechanism and of a ”verdict.” Thus, despite sustained mass mobilization, unauthorized mass rallies, acute political polarization, and vitriolic exchanges between the leading contenders, the electoral dispute was resolved by the judiciary.

The presidential election in Taiwan, March 2004

The presidential election in Taiwan, March 2004