Elections In Taiwan Research Articles

Strategic Government Spending in South Korea and Taiwan: Lessons for Emergent Democracies*

Objectives. How is government spending used strategically in South Korea and Taiwan? As nations generally considered to have weathered democratization, government allocations in South Korea and Taiwan are instructive on how spending may be used strategically without undermining democratization. Methods. The similar sociocultural, historical, political, and economic experiences of the two nations underlie a most-similar-systems approach to study how their differences influence diversity in strategic spending and, correspondingly, political outcomes such as size of the government party in the legislature. This article evaluates defense and civilian expenditures for South Korea and Taiwan from 1975 to 2006. Results. Three results are interesting. First, different elections—legislative elections in South Korea, presidential elections in Taiwan—lead to increases in spending. Second, in both nations, defense spending increases in election years but not social spending; however, defense spending benefits the government-party in the legislature in South Korea but not in Taiwan. Third, when the strategic uses of spending are accounted for, democratization does not directly affect allocations. Conclusions. These results explicate that government spending is a viable resource for party building in new democracies; however, the results also underscore that governing parties in new democracies benefit from spending only insofar as it is used to build the nation's or party's strengths—not undermine the opposition—under competitive elections.

Issue Familiarity and Framing Effects of Online Campaign Coverage: Event Perception, Issue Attitudes, and the 2004 Presidential Election in Taiwan

This study tests how two distinguishable frames identified from Mainland Chinese online coverage of Taiwan's 2004 presidential election campaign influenced U.S. and Chinese audiences' event perception and attitudes toward Mainland-Taiwan relations. Employing a 2times2×3 between-subjects experiment, this study highlights the moderating effect of issue familiarity. Findings show a significant impact of framing intensity on the event perception of those who may not be familiar with the topic, in addition to a significant influence exerted by frame type on event perception. The roles of familiarity and other factors involved in framing effects on issue attitudes are also discussed from a comparative perspective.

Comparison of two election prediction models: an empirical analysis of Taiwan election survey data

In this paper, we compare our Voter's Request Indicator model, developed in 1998 from the theory of marketing, with the Logistic Prediction Model which has been used more widely. Both models perform well in terms of accuracy and stability of prediction outcome. However, concerning speed and ease-of-use, the computational process of the Logistic Prediction Model is much more complicated than that of our Voter's Request Indicator Election Prediction model. In addition, the Voter's Request Indicator Election Prediction model takes both potential and already-committed voters into consideration, and uses a ratio of factors to calculate the tendency intensity, which is indicative of internal and external circumstances influencing candidate support. In contrast, the Logistic Prediction Model cannot indicate the tendency intensity of candidates, so policy makers could be confused and make wrong decisions which could affect the election outcome.

Cross‐sectional and longitudinal differences in social dominance orientation and right wing authoritarianism as a function of political power and societal change

Changes in social dominance orientation (SDO) and right wing authoritarianism (RWA) over time were examined using cross‐sectional and longitudinal analysis of three waves of survey data before and after the 2004 Presidential election in Taiwan. A functionalist perspective (or group socialization model) predicts that: (i) supporters of a dominant political group that has held power for over 50 years should be higher in SDO and RWA than their opposition; and (ii) a formerly subordinate group should increase in SDO and RWA following electoral victory, whereas the dominant group should decrease following defeat. The first hypothesis was supported, whereas support for the second was mixed; the low‐powered group increased in SDO and RWA following victory, but the high‐powered group was unchanged. It appears easier to acquire the mindset associated with power than to lose it. Longitudinal path modelling showed that SDO became less connected to identity and political party support after an election that consolidated societal and regime change; the role of RWA shifted even more dramatically, from being connected to one political party and social identity pre‐election to an opposing one post‐election. Longitudinal path models slightly favoured a group socialization account over personality or social identity accounts in modelling correlations between SDO, RWA, political party support, and social identities over time.

Cross-Strait Relations: Post-2008 Scenarios

Abstract This article examines the likelihood that the winning party in the 2008 election in Taiwan will implement the one-China policy in the context of the 1992 consensus by analyzing the positions of the Kuomintang (KMT—the Nationalist party) and the Democratic People's party (DPP) and its factions. It concludes by explaining why peace and stability in Taiwan will remain the mainland's policy priority after the 2008 election.

Resolving Legitimacy Problems: A Case Study of the Shooting in Taiwan's 2004 Presidential Election

Fierce debate continues over Taiwan's 2004 presidential election. The election-eve shooting of President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu is the pivotal factor in these discussions. Most analyses of the shooting incident have been more focussed on inferring the truth about this criminal case, and debate about whether or not the incumbent president benefited from this shooting. (1) However, when solving a criminal case without significant and direct evidence, any hypothetic deductive logic is just one possibility. The opposition, which lost the presidential election by 0.2 per cent of the vote, accused the incumbent bloc of using the shooting incident to mislead voters into sympathising with Chen Shui-bian. (2) These contentions inevitably caused the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results to be questioned. The concept of legitimacy contrasts with the concept of legality. As a great deal of the classic literature in politics and jurisprudence has already discussed these concepts, no attempt is made in this article to discuss them in detail. The focus here is on forward-looking thinking--how to reduce the possibility that any such incident like the 2004 election-eve shooting could occur in the future. (3) The article begins by considering the normative aspect: Should any legitimacy be given to the outcome of the presidential election? Then the positive aspect is examined: How do we redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results? How do we avert doubts about the legitimacy of future presidential elections? Accordingly, the specific purposes of this article are: firstly, to show the difficulty in resolving the current dissension over the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results during the process of seeking answers for the normative and positive questions; and secondly, to remind researchers of the importance of the forward-looking aspect of this serious issue. Methodology The focus here is on the benchmark approach abstracted from Ronald Coase by Bingyuang Hsiung. (4) Coase's approach can be summarised as follows: setting a reference point, treating this point as a benchmark and then comparing and contrasting this benchmark with the selected topics. Hsiung also suggests: we apply the benchmark approach, we have to consider why to choose this benchmark point but not the others. (5) In economics, benefit and cost are mentioned in the same breath, and cost-benefit analysis is also a useful tool in many studies. For example, if the expected benefits of a specific policy are greater than the expected costs, then implementing the policy will add to total social welfare. Nonetheless, the benefit of Taiwan's presidential election results without legitimacy problems may not be easy to measure. For individuals, the benefits of legitimacy are highly subjective. When the outcome of an election is legitimate, some people may be quite satisfied with it, but others may not care. How can we compare, for different people, the degree of benefit in having no legitimacy problem; or how can we use a measurable index to make comparisons? Even if some indirect measurements are used, the results of comparison may not be clear. When the outcome of an election lacks legitimacy and needs resolution, using the concept of costs is clear and objective. In the case of the 2004 presidential election in Taiwan, if a re-vote is one method to redeem its legitimacy, then the functional expenses that Taiwan's Central Election Commission (CEC) would pay for holding the re-vote is a definite cost. If a multi-party political consultation is another method to redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results, then the resources that the two rival blocs need to invest in the consultation are measurable costs. For instance, each bloc may need to hold its own plenary session to reach common consent, and the two blocs may negotiate many times with each other about confirming the legitimacy of the presidential election results. …

Resolving the Legitimacy Problems: A Case Study of the Shooting in Taiwan's 2004 Presidential Election

Resolving Legitimacy Problems: A Case Study of the Shooting in Taiwan's 2004 Presidential Election Tzu-Wen Sung Fierce debate continues over Taiwan's 2004 presidential election. The election-eve shooting of President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu is the pivotal factor in these discussions. Most analyses of the shooting incident have been more focussed on inferring the truth about this criminal case, and debate about whether or not the incumbent president benefited from this shooting.1 However, when solving a criminal case without significant and direct evidence, any hypothetic deductive logic is just one possibility. The opposition, which lost the presidential election by 0.2 per cent of the vote, accused the incumbent bloc of using the shooting incident to mislead voters into sympathising with Chen Shui-bian.2 These contentions inevitably caused the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results to be questioned. The concept of legitimacy contrasts with the concept of legality. As a great deal of the classic literature in politics and jurisprudence has already discussed these concepts, no attempt is made in this article to discuss them in detail. The focus here is on forward-looking thinking — how to reduce the possibility that any such incident like the 2004 election-eve shooting could occur in the future.3 The article begins by considering the normative aspect: Should any legitimacy be given to the outcome of the presidential election? Then the positive aspect is examined: How do we redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results? How do we avert doubts about the legitimacy of future presidential elections? Accordingly, the specific purposes of this article are: firstly, to show the difficulty in resolving the current dissension [End Page 335] over the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results during the process of seeking answers for the normative and positive questions; and secondly, to remind researchers of the importance of the forward-looking aspect of this serious issue. Methodology The focus here is on the benchmark approach abstracted from Ronald Coase by Bingyuang Hsiung.4 Coase's approach can be summarised as follows: setting a reference point, treating this point as a benchmark and then comparing and contrasting this benchmark with the selected topics. Hsiung also suggests: "When we apply the benchmark approach, we have to consider why to choose this benchmark point but not the others."5 In economics, benefit and cost are mentioned in the same breath, and cost-benefit analysis is also a useful tool in many studies. For example, if the expected benefits of a specific policy are greater than the expected costs, then implementing the policy will add to total social welfare. Nonetheless, the benefit of Taiwan's presidential election results without legitimacy problems may not be easy to measure. For individuals, the benefits of legitimacy are highly subjective. When the outcome of an election is legitimate, some people may be quite satisfied with it, but others may not care. How can we compare, for different people, the degree of benefit in having no legitimacy problem; or how can we use a measurable [End Page 336] index to make comparisons? Even if some indirect measurements are used, the results of comparison may not be clear. When the outcome of an election lacks legitimacy and needs resolution, using the concept of costs is clear and objective. In the case of the 2004 presidential election in Taiwan, if a re-vote is one method to redeem its legitimacy, then the functional expenses that Taiwan's Central Election Commission (CEC) would pay for holding the re-vote is a definite cost. If a multi-party political consultation is another method to redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results, then the resources that the two rival blocs need to invest in the consultation are measurable costs. For instance, each bloc may need to hold its own plenary session to reach common consent, and the two blocs...

Dilemmas of Electoral Clientelism: Taiwan, 1993

For many years, studies of electoral clientelism regarded clients as the captive votes of patrons. In recent years, this conventional wisdom has come under challenge, as scholars have come to recognize the widespread noncompliance of clients. This article uses the case of the 1993 Taiwan election to offer the first ever systematic data on noncompliance. Documents from the ruling Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) campaign office in one Taiwanese district, combined with district electoral results, demonstrate considerable leakage in this instance of clientelistic mobilization: at least 45 percent of voters who sold their votes to the Kuomintang did not, in fact, vote for the Kuomintang's candidate. This article argues that clientelistic mobilization faced at least four serious obstacles, including (1) broker scarcity, (2) factionalism, (3) embezzlement, and (4) financial limitations. These obstacles prevented the Kuomintang from making full use of its broker organizations, even as it devoted extensive economic and political resources and personnel to the election.

Partisanship, Ethnic Identification, and Citizen Attitudes toward Regime and Government on Taiwan

While Taiwan continues to enjoy a liberal, consolidated democratic regime, citizen discontent continues to be directed at regime, government, and the governing. Identifying the scope and degree of dissatisfaction is an initial step in ascertaining whether discontented citizens might be more or less amenable to destabilizing change at the regime level or more procedural changes at the government levels. Taiwan's 2004 elections topped off four years of mud slinging, legislative gridlock, and a number of serious battles over constitutional jurisdictions and powers. This research note compares survey items from the Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) surveys taken in 2001 and 2003 to measure levels of support for a democratic regime and governance within this environment. As party and ethnic identification are key cleavages on Taiwan, this study seeks to establish the relative strengths of the association between partisan and ethnic identification and attitudes towards regime and government. The main findings are: (1) dissatisfaction with regime and governance are more strongly associated with partisan identification than ethnic identification; (2) there exists a surprisingly low satisfaction and commitment to democracy; and (3) alienation from government exists at a moderate level.

The legislative election in Taiwan, December 2004

The legislative election in Taiwan, December 2004

Taiwan and the South China Sea in Sino-ASEAN Relations—An Overview

The issue of the ‘one-China’ policy as well as the dispute over conflicting claims of ownership of the South China Sea islands has had a mixed effect on the relations between China and ASEAN. Profound changes in the political and economic system of China and its consequent impact on Taiwan–China relations as well as the institutionalisation of security related issues in Sino-ASEAN relations has generated various opinions among scholars and policy makers regarding the eventual outcome of the China-Taiwan problem. The mid-1990s saw some belligerent moves on the part of China both in the Taiwan straits and in the South China Sea islands. These unresolved issues are of continuing concern for neighbouring countries especially those part of the ASEAN with regard to peaceful and cordial relations between the ASEAN states and China. This article aims to explore these complex issues by tracing the background of China's attitude towards Taiwan both during Mao's rule as well as in the post-Mao period, as well as its impact on the ASEAN-China relations. This is done in the backdrop of the events in the Taiwan straits and the subsequent elections in Taiwan and of the seemingly unsettled problem regarding the issue of sovereignty over the South China Sea islands.

The anti‐secession law, framing, and political change in Taiwan

Beijing's Anti‐Secession Law (ASL) was promulgated in March 2005. Influenced by the December 2004 Legislative Yuan elections in Taiwan, Beijing's 2005 comments suggested the ASL was intended to increase peaceful interaction, not confrontation. Temporary, cooperative discussions early in 2005 between the People First Party (PFP) and President Chen Shui‐bian (DPP) are analysed as well as trips to the mainland by KMT leaders and the subsequent China visit by PFP leaders. The impact of all these events on the May 2005 National Assembly elections and the December local elections in the Republic of China on Taiwan (ROCT) is discussed. An evolving, more peaceful and interactive status quo has reduced the likelihood of military force becoming an option. Gradual refraining of cross‐Strait relations occurred in 2005. Still to be determined is whedier Taiwan will benefit from the changing status quo to the degree Beijing believes the PRC will benefit.

Expected-Utility Voting in Taiwan’s Legislative Elections: 1995, 1998, and 2001

We propose, in this article, a model for multimember districts in which voting choice is a function of the product of relative benefits and the probability of breaking a tie between their preferred party and its trailing party. We transform people’s perception of the parties’ positions on specific issues in order to obtain the probability of each party winning. “Feeling thermometer” and “like/dislike” questions are employed to measure the perceived benefit that an individual might expect to receive from each party if elected. We test our model using the 1995, 1998, and 2001 legislative elections in Taiwan, simulating the level of closeness with logistic estimates. Based on the simulation, we identify four types of voting behavior: sincere, straightforward, irrational, and strategic. The study of these four types of voting behavior sheds light on party competition in Taiwan and provides models likely to be useful elsewhere as well.

Democratization, Divided Government and the 2001 Taiwanese Legislative Yuan Elections

The 2001 Legislative Yuan elections in Taiwan were the first to be held following the change in control of the presidency that occurred after the 2000 elections. The transition from a one-party dominant system to one where the opposition had control of the government provides a good opportunity to examine the prevalence of democratic attitudes in Taiwan. Democracy can be frustrating when control over public policy is divided between two opposing groups. Under these circumstances, it could be reasonable for voters to desire a return to authoritarianism government. In a survey conducted following the 2001 Legislative Yuan elections, Taiwanese citizens were asked a series of questions about democratic norms. In this article, I analyze these attitudes as a means of exploring how Taiwan’s voters feel about democracy as Taiwan moves away from a one-party dominant system and faces potential difficulties operating within a multi-party semi-presidential system.

The presidential election in Taiwan, March 2004

The presidential election in Taiwan, March 2004

The 2004 Presidential Election in Taiwan

The 2004 Presidential Election in Taiwan

Politics and Judiciary Verdicts on Vote-Buying Litigation in Taiwan

Widespread vote buying is a major characteristic of Taiwan's election politics. We examine the impact of political factors (including partisanship, whether persons are elected or not, and type of election) on court decisions at three levels for vote-buying litigation in southwestern Taiwan between 1990 and 1999. Findings reveal that political variables have considerably less effect than expected on trial outcomes.

The Supporters of Unification and the Taiwanisation Movement

The spring 2004 presidential election in Taiwan seems to have set a particular milestone in the process launched in 1986 of liberalisation, democratisation and democratic consolidation. The rival camps exchanged wild attacks during the campaign; and a proportion of the losers, mostly supporters of unification with China, staged demonstrations afterwards, their refusal to admit defeat bolstered by the victors’ narrow majority. This reaction, by its nature and intensity, expressed the camps’ di...

The [former] Coming War with America

Following the 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and in the lead-up to the Presidential election in Taiwan in early 2000, a spate of fire-breathing popular magazines appeared in China's interior provinces. These magazines spoke with unprecedented directness about a Chinese war with the United States over Taiwan, and about how China might fight such a war. The message conveyed was that China could win a war against the United States over Taiwan. Evidence in these magazines suggests close links to the PLA. Early in 2001 publication of such magazines was suppressed because of divulging state secrets and, perhaps, because of a desire to direct Sino-US relations onto a less contentious path.

Taiwan in troubled times: essays on the Chen Shui-bian presidency

Introduction (J F Copper) Taiwan in Gridlock (J F Copper) Whither Cross-Strait Relations (L-J Sheng) The Democratic Progressive Party's Factional Politics (C-M Chao) Dynamic Stability in Beijing-Taipei Relations (G W Tsai) Taiwan's December 2001 Election (J F Copper) Appendices: China's White Paper on Taiwan Zhu Rongji's Statement Before Taiwan Election Chen Shui-bian's Victory Speech Chen Shui-bian's Inauguration Address President Chen's National Day Address, 2000 President's New Year's Eve Address President's New Year's Address President's First Anniversary Speech Economic Conference Closing Address Resolutions of Economic Conference President's National Day Address, 2001 President's Comments on the APEC Conference.