Tail Theory Research Articles

Digital music and the “death of the long tail”

Digital distribution is a new technology that is revolutionizing the pop-rock music market. Extensive debate exists on the long tail theory that predicts a niche strategy in the pop-rock market versus the conventional wisdom of a “superstar effect” that predicts skewness in the market outcomes for artists. Our research tests the empirical evidence of such effects and elaborates on how the firms respond to this disruptive technological revolution and how this response changes strategic management.

Blockbuster or Niche? Competitive Strategy Under Network Effects

We provide a theory that unifies the long tail and blockbuster phenomena. Specifically, we analyze a three-stage game where, first, a large number of potential firms make entry decisions, then those who stay in the market decide on the investment in its product, and lastly customers with heterogeneous preferences arrive sequentially to make purchase decisions based on product quality and historic sales under the network effect. We show analytically that a growing network effect always contributes to more sales concentration on a small number of products, supporting the blockbuster phenomenon. However, product variety and investments in quality, as an outcome of firms' ex ante competitive decisions, may increase or decrease, as the network effect grows. When a parameter that determines the strength of the network effect is below a particular threshold, an increasing network effect would shift more sales towards the products with higher quality, preventing more products from entering the market ex ante and inducing firms to adopt the blockbuster equilibrium strategy by making high-budget products. When the parameter is above the threshold, the network effect will easily cause the market to be concentrated to a few products; even some low-quality products may have a chance to become a hit. Interestingly, in this case, when the network effect is growing, the ex-ante equilibrium product variety will be broader and firms adopt the niche equilibrium strategy by making low-budget products, a finding which supports the long tail theory. We test the theory with the movie box office data and find strong supporting evidence.

ERM Ideas & Innovations

ABSTRACTUniversity System of Maryland & Affiliated Institutions (USMAI) librarians are actively pursuing the application of long tail theory to electronic resources management (ERM) for the USMAI library consortium. USMAI ERM staff established a framework for consortial governance of electronic resources and are “reaching out” to other library consortia to share ideas and pursue collective projects, with the eventual goal of taking advantage of the leverage that long tail ERM policies and procedures can offer to library consortia.

The long tail of search and topical queries in public libraries

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to elaborate the long tail of topical search queries, including the influence of current events, posed to a large, urban public library discovery system.Design/methodology/approachSearch queries from the months of June, July, August and September 2014 (1,488,339 total queries) were collected from the Edmonton Public Library’s BiblioCommons database using Google Analytics and exported to Excel. The data were then analyzed using descriptive statistics, frequency counts and textual analysis to explicate the long tail of search, (including the most popular searches) and to explore the relationship between topical search queries and current events.FindingsThe findings support the long tail theory, as the aggregate tail of topical search queries comprised the vast majority of the total searches and current events exert some influence on the nature and frequency of topical searches.Research limitations/implicationsData collection was limited to four months of the year; thus, comparisons across the year cannot be made. There are practical implications for public libraries in terms of marketing and collections, as well as for improving catalogue functionality, to support user search behaviour.Originality/valueNot much research attention has been focused on the nature of topical search queries in public libraries compared to academic libraries and the Web. The findings contribute to developing insight into the divergent interests of intergenerational public library users and the topics of materials they are searching for.

Authors’ Views of e-Book Self-Publishing: The Role of Symbolic Capital Risk

A popular school of thought in the study of publishing, exemplified by Anderson’s [1] influential Long Tail theory, suggests that the economic advantages of e-books will lead to a boom in self-publishing. However, this position focuses on economic factors at the expense of other potential influences. By applying Azjen’s [2] Theory of Planned Behaviour, this study identifies a gap in the existing literature on e-book adoption by showing a lack of attention to normative influences, and to the viewpoint of authors. Through qualitative interviews with 11 authors in the Ottawa area who have self-published or are considering doing so in the near future, we find that symbolic-capital risk is a significant concern for these authors.

Adoption of E-book Platform by Historical New York Times Best-Sellers: An Examination of the “Long Tail” Theory in Action

The book-publishing industry has been dramatically impacted by the advent and growing popularity of the e-book platform. This paper examines this phenomenon from the context of the long tail theory by testing the e-book adoption rate for a sample of novels listed in decades past as New York Times Best-sellers. Additionally, the paper estimates annual sales of a sampling of these works to verify the existence of demand for e-book versions of novels that may no longer be in print.

EEXCESS: Personalisierter Zugriff auf Long-Tail-Inhalte – neue Methoden zur Verbreitung wissenschaftlich-kulturellen Wissens

Traditionell bieten wissenschaftliche und kulturelle digitale Bibliotheken Zugriff auf ihre Inhalte über eigene Portale und dedizierte Suchmechanismen an. Ein wichtiger Aspekt in der Verbreitung des darin enthaltenen Wissens ist die Bewerbung dieser Dienste und die Gewinnung neuer Nutzer und Nutzerinnen auf den Portalen. Dabei kommen vor allem Methoden aus dem Bereich der Suchmaschinenoptimierung und des Social Media-Marketings zum Einsatz. Betrachtet man jedoch die Gesamtheit der digitalen Bibliotheken, so zeigt sich, dass diese Mittel nur begrenzt zum Erfolg führen können. Wissenschaftliche und kulturelle digitale Bibliotheken, Museen und Archive stellen im WWW den so genannten „Long-Tail“ der Inhalte dar, d. h. die große Menge hoch-spezialisierter Information für eine auf die einzelnen Inhalte bezogene sehr kleine Nutzergemeinschaft. Diese Long-Tail-Inhalte konkurrieren mit Mainstream-Inhalten um die Gunst von Suchmaschinen und Social Media-Kanälen. Die Treffsicherheit der Methoden liegt daher meist unter den Erwartungen. Das EU FP 7-Projekt EEXCESS untersucht neue Möglichkeiten zur Verbreitung wissenschaftlich-kultureller Inhalte digitaler Bibliotheken. Im Zentrum stehen dabei intelligente, die Privatsphäre erhaltende, personalisierte Empfehlungstechniken für wissenschaftliche und kulturelle Long-Tail-Inhalte. Diese Inhalte sollen dabei in häufig genutzte Web-Kanäle automatisiert eingespeist und somit einfacher nutzbar und für eine breitere Anwenderbasis sichtbar gemacht werden. EEXCESS bringt die Inhalte zu den Nutzern und Nutzerinnen, anstatt Nutzer und Nutzerinnen zu den Inhalten zu führen – so das Ziel.

互联网金融背景下金融资源配置效率研究—基于长尾理论

本文以资源配置效率作为出发点，研究互联网技术的兴起对金融资源配置效率的影响，特别是互联网金融这一全新金融业态冲击下的变化。本文主要从理论的角度来分析互联网金融对整个金融资源配置效率的影响。以长尾理论作为基础，通过数理推理，从理论逻辑上证明了互联网技术对金融资源配置效率的提升作用，在结论的基础上形成相关建议。 With resources allocation efficiency as a starting point, this study investigates the impact of internet technology development on financial resource allocation efficiency, and specifically focuses on the changes brought by internet finance as an emerging industry. This study theoretically analyses the influence of internet finance on financial resources allocation efficiency. Based on Long Tail theory, and by mathematic reasoning, the current study logically and theoretically proves the positive influence of internet technology on improving financial resources allocation efficiency.

Information Discovery and the Long Tail of Motion Picture Content

Recent papers have shown that, in contrast to the long tail theory, movie sales remain concentrated in a small number of hits. These papers have argued that concentrated sales can be explained, in part, by heterogeneity in quality and increasing returns from social effects. Our research analyzes an additional explanation: how incomplete information may skew sales patterns. We use the movie broadcast on pay-cable channels as an exogenous shock to the availability of information, and analyze how this shock changes the resulting sales distribution. Our data show that the pay-cable broadcast shifts the distribution of DVD sales toward long tail movies, suggesting an information spillover from the broadcast. We develop a learning-based movie discovery model to precisely quantify the two mechanisms of movie discovery: word-of-mouth from previous sales and information spillover from broadcast. We use this model to estimate the lost DVD sales due to incomplete information. Our study contributes to the literature by analyzing how information provided in one channel can change the assortment of the same products demanded in another channel.

Analysis of Urbach-like absorption tails in thermally treated ZnO:Al thin films

The sub bandgap absorption of as deposited and thermally treated ZnO:Al has been investigated and described applying Urbach tail theory. In the as deposited state Urbach energies show a decreasing trend for higher deposition temperatures. Annealing leads to much less band tailing, and resulting Urbach energies are the same as for undoped ZnO. It has been concluded that structural disorder is the main contribution to the bandtails in the as deposited state. In summary, films with excellent electrical properties due to very high carrier mobilities and excellent optical properties due to the strong reduction in sub bandgap absorption were obtained.

Correction for multiple testing in a gene region

Several methods to correct for multiple testing within a gene region have been proposed. These methods are useful for candidate gene studies, and to fine map gene-regions from GWAs. The Bonferroni correction and permutation are common adjustments, but are overly conservative and computationally intensive, respectively. Other options include calculating the effective number of independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or using theoretical approximations. Here, we compare a theoretical approximation based on extreme tail theory with four methods for calculating the effective number of independent SNPs. We evaluate the type-I error rates of these methods using single SNP association tests over 10 gene regions simulated using 1000 Genomes data. Overall, we find that the effective number of independent SNP method by Gao et al, as well as extreme tail theory produce type-I error rates at the or close to the chosen significance level. The type-I error rates for the other effective number of independent SNP methods vary by gene region characteristics. We find Gao et al and extreme tail theory to be efficient alternatives to more computationally intensive approaches to control for multiple testing in gene regions.

Microfinance, the long tail and mission drift

Poor people were excluded from financial services until microfinance institutions (MFIs) emerged. The mission of MFIs is to alleviate poverty, contributing to women empowerment, especially in rural communities. Microcredits can be analyzed under Pareto's 80/20 Principle. Their clients are situated in the long tail of the wealth distribution function. This niche market is not very attractive, because of its high administrative costs, lack of deposits and the need for compensating low revenues with fluctuating subsidies. Some MFIs have drifted from their mission. This paper presents a model to explain microfinance mission drift, tested with hypotheses. The results from the empirical study show a pattern of mission centered MFI: a small NGO, with labor productivity, receiving donations and obtaining a high yield. It can be concluded that there is a need for reducing interest rates. According to the long tail theory, this could be done by using efficient technology, as it has been achieved in the e-commerce sector.

基于长尾理论的电商小贷业务发展分析

小额贷款作为一种微型金融模式，解决了众多中小企业的融资难题。随着该项业务的成熟发展，中小企业巨大的资金需求也引起了电商企业的重视，纷纷推出自己的小额贷款业务。本文基于长尾理论对电商小贷业务进行分析，认为此项业务是一种可以改善中小企业融资的创新举措，并指出长尾效应给电商小贷业务的发展带来的影响和良好机遇，提出了电商企业在发展过程中，重视和发展小贷业务将成为其新的经济增长点。 Small loan as a kind of microfinance has solved the financing problem of many small and medium-sized enterprises. With the development of this business, the huge capital requirements of the small and medium-sized enterprises also cause E-Commerce Enterprises’ attention; they have launched their own small loan business. In this paper, based on the long tail theory to analyze China’s E-Commerce Enterprises’ small loan business, the authors think this business is an innovation to solve the small and medium-sized enterprises’ financing problem, and point out that the impact of the long tail will bring a good development opportunity to China’s E-Commerce Enterprises which develop the small loan business. It also proposes that in the process of development, to develop the small loan business will become a new economic growth points to China’s E-Commerce Enterprises.

INFORMATION ASYMMETRY FLOWING IN COMPLEX NETWORKS

The concept of information asymmetry in complex networks is introduced on the basis of information asymmetry in economics and symmetry breaking. Information flowing between two nodes on a link is bidirectional, whose size is closely related to traffic dynamics on the network. Based on asymmetric information theory, we proposed information flow between network nodes is asymmetrical. We designed two methods to calculate the amount of information flow based on two mechanisms of complex network. Unequal flow of two opposite directions on the same link proved information asymmetry exists in the complex network. A complex network evolution model based on symmetry breaking is established, which is a truthful example for complex network mimicking nature. The evolution mechanism of symmetry breaking can best explain the phenomenon of the weak link and long tail theory in complex network.

'Selling Less of More'? The Impact of Digitization on Record Companies

In this paper we use data from a survey of 151 French record companies to test the “long tail theory” at the level of the firm. More specifically, we test whether, following the “selling less of more” principle coined by Anderson (2006), record companies that have adapted to digitization (at various levels: artists’ scouting, distribution and promotion) release more new albums without having higher overall sales. We construct a production function in which the output is produced from conventional inputs of labor and capital, as well as inputs that are more specific to the recorded music industry. We consider two types of output: a commercial output (albums sales) and a creative output (number of new albums released). We show that labels that have adapted to digitization are more efficient in respect of creative output, but that there is no effect of adaptation to digitization on the commercial output, which is consistent with the predictions of the long tail theory.

Research on the Integration and Transition of Pareto Principle and Long Tail Theory

Long tail theory doesn’t replace Pareto principle. On the contrary, both of them operate in the economics of abundance. In the condition of abundant products, the adaptability and importance increase for Pareto principle. Meanwhile, the long tail effect brought by abundant economy can not be ignored. The effect includes increased “hot” products, “hot” products converted from “cold” products, the long tail turning to be longer and fatter and the curve of long tail turning to be smoother. The application of long tail theory instead of Pareto principle needs to lower production cost and transition cost, effective search and massive customized production. Key words: Pareto principle; Long tail theory; The economics of abundance; Integration; Transition

The Long Tail of Legal Information - Legal Reference Service in the Age of the 'Content Farm'

The purpose of this article is to alert the legal reference librarian to a new and fundamentally different type of legal information, the farm. This article discusses and explains the content farm phenomenon as it affects legal information aimed at the non-expert user. Those who follow trends in information dissemination may recall a recent controversy concerning a change in Google's search algorithm that was created to slow down the proliferation of content farm information. We will review and discuss the assumptions about content farm information that prompted this change; specifically the idea that information generated for content farms is somehow less worthy than other legal information on the web. To do all this we will first attempt to define the term “content farm” - a term that is evolving even as this is written. Then, we will describe how legal information is generated and disseminated via content farms. Next, we will explore why this type of information is different from the usual legal information - good and bad - that is available on the Internet. We will analyze the economic theory upon which that information is being developed: the long tail theory. We will then show and critique some examples of legal content generated by content farms that are currently available on the web. As part of that discussion we will pose the question of whether Google is right and whether content farm content should be driven from the web. We end with a review of why familiarity with this material is important to reference librarians and why, in the context of a legal reference transaction, content farm material is fundamentally different from other sources of legal information our customers may bring to us.

The long tail or the short tail: The category-specific impact of eWOM on sales distribution

This paper investigates the impact of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) on sales distribution and challenges the conventional wisdom of the long tail theory. As customers refer to eWOM to evaluate products, and each product type entails a different scheme of evaluation standards, the impact of eWOM may differ by product type. Thus, we propose a new type of product categorization based on evaluation standard objectivity and hypothesize that this categorization gradually differentiates sales distribution patterns, some of which refute the long tail phenomenon. To validate the hypothesis, we collect data from Amazon.com, compare the distribution of eWOM among various product types, and conduct the Wilcoxon signed rank test for statistical significance. All the test results show adequate levels of significance; thus, the three hypotheses are supported. This study sheds new light on eWOM research by developing a new approach to product categorization and by proposing a different use of eWOM in searching for products to explain the different effects of eWOM on sales distribution.

Blogger-Centric Contextual Advertising

Web advertising (online advertising), a form of advertising that uses the World Wide Web to attract customers, has become one of the most commonly-used marketing channels. This paper addresses the concept of Blogger-Centric Contextual Advertising, which refers to the assignment of personal ads to any blog page, chosen in according to bloggers’ interests. As blogs become a platform for expressing personal opinions, they naturally contain various kinds of statements, including facts, comments and statements about personal interests, of both a positive and negative nature. To extend the concept behind the Long Tail theory in contextual advertising, we argue that web bloggers, as the constant visitors of their own blog-sites, could be potential consumers who will respond to ads on their own blogs. Hence, in this paper, we propose using text mining techniques to discover bloggers’ immediate personal interests in order to improve online contextual advertising. The proposed Blogger-Centric Contextual Advertising (BCCA) framework aims to combine contextual advertising matching with text mining in order to select ads that are related to personal interests as revealed in a blog and rank them according to their relevance. We validate our approach experimentally using a set of data that includes both real ads and actual blog pages. The results indicate that our proposed method could effectively identify those ads that are positively-correlated with a blogger’s personal interests.

Does the Long Tail apply to online news? A quantitative study of French-speaking news websites

The multiplicity of news available on the web is frequently presented as a positive factor leading to pluralism. The web is expected to offer a wider range of content than offline media, as the Long Tail theory more largely suggests. But such an assumption has to be proved by empirical evidence. The research presented in this article aims at testing this hypothesis through a transdisciplinary quantitative study based on a sample of several thousands of articles drawn from different categories of French-speaking websites. In fact, the editorial identification of topical issues and the lexicometric analysis of the headlines both suggest a more complex situation. The spectrum of issues that websites deal with is simultaneously characterized by diversity as well as high concentration on a few major and redundant issues. These results highlight the necessity to question the ideal of pluralism that the web is supposed to embody.