System Uncertainties Research Articles

Offline planning and online operation of zonal-based flexible transit service under demand uncertainties and dynamic cancellations

This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for planning and operating a zonal-based flexible transit (FT) service, a public transit mode designed to accommodate uncertain demand patterns. The framework addresses both offline planning based on stochastic demand distributions and cancellations, as well as online routing considering real-time orders and cancellation behaviour. Offline interzonal route planning is formulated as a two-stage recourse problem, while the intrazonal routing problem is modelled using a Markov decision process (MDP) that incorporates online information. To solve the problem, a service reliability-based decomposition method is employed to divide the problem into three mixed-integer subproblems. The first subproblem focuses on designing interzonal routes up to a specific demand level, taking into account a designated cancellation probability as determined by reliability measures. An insertion heuristic is developed for this subproblem to improve the solution efficiency. The second subproblem allocates passengers from certain categories to vehicles based on the passenger volume designated by reliability measures. Lastly, the third subproblem refines the vehicle intrazonal route according to the passenger assignment from the previous subproblem. The reliability measures are optimised iteratively until no further improvements are observed in consecutive iterations. The proposed FT service’s performance is evaluated using numerical simulations based on real New York City (NYC) taxi demand data, illustrating the effectiveness of the integrated planning and operational approach in accommodating uncertainties in on-demand transit systems.

Adaptive Robust Control of Uncertain Euler-Lagrange Systems Using Gaussian Processes.

This article proposes a novel adaptive robust control approach based on Gaussian processes (GPs) for the high-precision tracking problem of uncertain Euler-Lagrange (EL) systems with time-varying external disturbances. Given a prior dynamic model, the GP regression (GPR) technique is employed to obtain a nonparametric data-based uncertainty model, including its probabilistic confidence intervals. Based on the adaptive sliding mode control (ASMC) framework, the posterior means of GPs are utilized for dynamic compensation, whereas the posterior variances are applied to adjust the feedback gains. This proposed control strategy is robust against significant system uncertainty with low feedback gains. A novel adaptive law for updating hyperparameters based on tracking error feedback is presented, thereby improving the performance of both tracking control and GP modeling simultaneously. Compared to existing likelihood-based optimization methods, this hyperparameter adaptive law enables data-efficient and fast uncertainty learning for control applications. The proposed control strategy guarantees the semiglobal asymptotic convergence to zero tracking error with a specified probability. Simulations using an underwater robot model demonstrate that the utilization of GPs and hyperparameter adaptive law significantly improves the performance of tracking control and uncertainty learning.

Multiscale stochastic optimal control of hysteretic structures based on wavelet transform and probability density evolution method

PurposeContemporary stochastic optimal control by synergy of the probability density evolution method (PDEM) and conventional optimal controller exhibits less capability to guarantee economical energy consumption versus control efficacy when non-stationary stochastic excitations drive hysteretic structures. In this regard, a novel multiscale stochastic optimal controller is invented based on the wavelet transform and the PDEM.Design/methodology/approachFor a representative point, a conventional control law is decomposed into sub-control laws by deploying the multiresolution analysis. Then, the sub-control laws are classified into two generic control laws using resonant and non-resonant bands. Both frequency bands are established by employing actual natural frequency(ies) of structure, making computed efforts depend on actual structural properties and time-frequency effect of non-stationary stochastic excitations. Gain matrices in both bands are then acquired by a probabilistic criterion pertaining to system second-order statistics assessment. A multi-degree-of-freedom hysteretic structure driven by non-stationary and non-Gaussian stochastic ground accelerations is numerically studied, in which three distortion scenarios describing uncertainties in structural properties are considered.FindingsTime-frequency-dependent gain matrices sophisticatedly address non-stationary stochastic excitations, providing efficient ways to independently suppress vibrations between resonant and non-resonant bands. Wavelet level, natural frequency(ies), and ratio of control forces in both bands influence the scheme’s outcomes. Presented approach outperforms existing approach in ensuring trade-off under uncertainty and randomness in system and excitations.Originality/valuePresented control law generates control efforts relying upon resonant and non-resonant bands, and deploys actual structural properties. Cost-function weights and probabilistic criterion are promisingly developed, achieving cost-effectiveness of energy demand versus controlled structural performance.

Robust damping improvement against the vortex-induced vibration in flexible bridges using multiple tuned mass damper inerters

The tuned mass damper inerter (TMDI) is considered as one of countermeasures to mitigate the very-low-frequency vertical bending vortex-induced vibration (VIV) in flexible bridges. However, the control robustness of the TMDI against the system uncertainty is a serious concern due to the limited inerter span capacity. In this paper, the multiple tuned mass damper inerter (MTMDI) is used instead of identical TMDIs to provide a robust equivalent damping ratio against the uncertain VIV within the entire lock-in wind speed range. A design framework of the MTMDI considering the inerter span length is proposed based on a universal VIV model suitable for the fully closed, centrally slotted, and semi-closed box decks. In the framework, the fluctuation of VIV characteristics with the wind speed, the probability of occurrence of the VIV, and the uncertainties in VIV characteristics and deck dynamics are considered, simultaneously. Two objection functions are defined to focus on the maximizing the equivalent damper ratio and reducing the VIV mitigation failure, respectively. Finally, numerical analysis of a flexible bridge-MTMDI system subjected to the VIV is performed. The results show that the wind speed probability distribution plays a role of weighting coefficient in the MTMDI optimization. The choice of the objective function depends on the mass ratio of the MTMDI and the level of the system uncertainty. The well-optimized MTMDI achieved a more robust control result than the TMDI within the entire lock-in wind speed range.

Discrete-time sliding mode prescribed performance controller via Kalman filter and disturbance observer for load following of a pressurized water reactor

In practical implementations, most nuclear reactors employ digital controllers to accomplish the load following operation. However, most of the pre-existing works only focus on continuous time controller design, which may yield degraded control performance when the control strategy is employed by a digital controller owing to the finite sampling frequency and the inevitable discrete-time approximations. To this end, this paper proposes a discrete-time sliding mode prescribed performance controller (DTSMPPC) via Kalman filter (KF) and disturbance observer (DO) for a pressurized water reactor (PWR), aiming to achieve an easier implementation on the practical nuclear reactor systems. Specifically, the continuous mathematical model of the PWR system with consideration of model errors and disturbances is first transformed to a discrete-time form by virtue of Euler’s discretization technique. Then, based on this transformed discrete-time model, the KF and DO, which provide the estimates of unmeasured system states (relative density of delayed neutron precursor, average fuel temperature, xenon concentration, and iodine concentration) and uncertainties, respectively, are constructed using the input/output measurement information acquired from the nuclear reactor system merely. By incorporating the observed information provided by the KF and DO into the control framework, the proposed DTSMPPC enables the load following error to fulfill the accurate and robust performance requirement even in the presence of unmeasured system states and uncertainties, while at the same time ensuring the transient and steady-state load following error within a prescribed zone described by performance functions. The system stability and the aforementioned theoretical findings are proved through rigorous analysis and simulations. Simulation results also reveal that the proposed DTSMPPC via the KF and DO yields a superior load following performance compared with some previous control strategies.

Adaptive fault‐tolerant control of a nonlinear 2‐DOF helicopter system with prescribed performance

AbstractThis study investigates a novel tracking control with prescribed performance for an uncertain nonlinear 2‐DOF helicopter subject to actuator failure. The control design aims to address partial actuator faults, and to mitigate their effects, an adaptive auxiliary variable is introduced. Additionally, a neural network is employed to accurately approximate the system uncertainties. The prescribed performance is formulated as time‐varying constraints, and the barrier Lyapunov function (BLF) technique is applied to achieve the constrained control. Finally, the stability analysis of the closed‐loop system is provided, and the validity of the proposed control scheme is illustrated through a simulation study on the 2‐DOF helicopter system.

Event-Triggered Supercavitating Vehicle Terminal Sliding Mode Control Based on Non-Recursive Observation

Supercavitating vehicles present significant issues in controller design due to their multiphase flow-coupling characteristics. This study addresses force analysis and the construction of a 6-degree-of-freedom mathematical model for a supercavitating vehicle. A terminal sliding mode control law is intended to guarantee the quick tracking of the command signal for high-precision attitude control. To drastically lower the frequency of actuation and communication, a mechanism to trigger events is also introduced into the control link. A disturbance observer, which estimates system uncertainty using a non-recursive differentiator, improves the robustness of the system. The Lyapunov approach is used to prove that the system is stable. Numerical simulation results validate that the proposed method enhances control accuracy and robustness. The event-trigger mechanism reduces the execution frequency to 18.59%, effectively reducing the communication burden.

A remaining useful life prediction algorithm incorporating real-time and integrated model for hidden actuator degradation

This paper proposed a prediction algorithm for the degraded actuator taking into account the impact of estimation error of hidden index in the closed-loop system. To this end, a unified prediction framework is established to evaluate the hidden degradation information and recursively update the degradation model parameters simultaneously. The advantage is that the prediction framework can comprehensively compensate the estimation error of hidden degradation index caused by system uncertainty. To jointly estimate the degradation information in avoidance of the impact of system uncertainty, a modified adaptive Kalman filter is designed, and the proof of stability is provided. With the priori estimate from the filter, the degradation model parameters are updated by the inverse filtering probability based on Bayes’ theorem. It is followed by the computation of the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction utilizing aforementioned hidden degradation information and the latest degradation model. The effectiveness of the proposed RUL prediction algorithm is demonstrated by the degraded actuator in the continuous casting process.

Anti-swing control of varying rope length tower crane based on adaptive neural network sliding mode

Due to its complex nonlinear, underdriven, and strongly coupled characteristics, the tower crane will cause the load to swing violently when working, which will cause the tower crane to tip over in serious cases, and there exists a huge safety hazard. In this article, a new artificial neural network sliding mode control method is designed for the control problems of tower crane lifting in position and load swing prevention, which has strong robustness to disturbances and unmodeled dynamics, and ensures that the tower crane lifting is accurately tracked in position and suppresses the load swing at the same time. First, a nonlinear dynamics model of a five-degree-of-freedom tower crane considering the actual working conditions is established. Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to effectively control the nonlinear model of the tower crane system, a new neural sliding mode controller and compensation controller are designed based on the sliding mode control theory and using radial basis function neural network. The neural sliding mode controller is used to approximate the sliding mode equivalent controller with uncertainty and strong nonlinearity, and the compensation controller realizes the compensation of the neural sliding mode controller for the difference between the system control inputs and the uncertainty of the system. The convergence and stability of the proposed control system is rigorously demonstrated using the Lyapunov stability theory. Simulation studies have been carried out to verify the correctness of the model established in this article, as well as the excellent control performance of the control system and the ability to deal with system uncertainty, proving its strong robustness.

Digital twin-enabled robust production scheduling for equipment in degraded state

Technological advancements are leading to a world where digital twins will become integral to manufacturing operations management. While wide-ranging applications of digital twins are being researched, robust production scheduling remains an enduring challenge, especially considering the numerous sources of uncertainty in a complex manufacturing system that can affect the validity of the obtained solution. Thus, the article proposes a Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)-enabled digital twin framework to perform job scheduling for a flow shop scheduling problem considering real-time equipment health state. The framework combines the adoption of a Genetic Algorithm optimizer with data-driven modelling leveraging algorithms like Principal Component Analysis and models like Discrete Event Simulation with the purpose to solve the engineering task of scheduling at hand. Building on such a technological blend, the framework incorporates the degradation and fault detection and diagnosis of failure modes across multiple components. The effect of degradation and faults on job processing times is learned as a distribution from the field data. The proposed framework is then validated in a laboratory environment where degradation is produced by inducing degradation and faults in the equipment. By means of various experiments, the optimized makespan is compared for the output schedules in different configurations. When equipment is degraded, production scheduling with PHM-enabled field-synchronized digital twin results in better makespan estimation, if compared to the digital twin without PHM. This shows the superiority of the framework in terms of more realistic makespan estimations, which finally corresponds to improved production schedule optimization, sensitive also to degraded states.

Nonlinear Robust Control of Vehicle Stabilization System with Uncertainty Based on Neural Network

To effectively suppress the effects of uncertainties including unmodeled dynamics and external disturbances in the vehicle stabilization system, a nonlinear robust control strategy based on a multilayer neural network is proposed in this paper. First, the mechanical and electrical coupling dynamics model of the vehicle stabilization system, considering model uncertainty and actuator dynamics, is refined. Second, the lumped uncertainty of the vehicle stabilization system is estimated by a multi-layer neural network and compensated by feedforward control. The high robustness of the system is ensured by constructing the sliding mode feedback control law. The proposed control method overcomes the limitations of sliding mode technology and the neural network and is naturally applied to the vehicle stabilization system, avoiding the adverse effects of high-gain feedback. Based on Lyapunov theory, it is demonstrated that the proposed controller is able to achieve the desired stability tracking performance. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy is verified by co-simulation and comparative experiments.

A Developed Model and Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method to Evaluate Supply Chain Nervousness Strategies

Nervousness is thought to be a source of confusion, instability, or uncertainty in SC systems due to disruptions and frequent changes in decisions. Nervousness persists even with consistent SCs, which arise from planning flexibility in response to changes, where responsiveness and customer satisfaction balance. Although the term “nervousness” is well known, to our knowledge no prior research has examined and explored supply chain nervousness strategies (SCNSs). This research explores supply chain nervousness strategies, factors, reduction methods, and recent trends in the supply chain’s relationship with nervousness. The main purpose of this research is to determine the comprehensive and relevant nervousness strategies in the supply chains, especially in light of the unprecedented development and change in business, economics, and technology and the fierce competition. SCN strategies are introduced in a developed model to designate SCN measurements and indicators, mitigation strategies and stages, and management strategies. The fuzzy PROMETHEE method is employed to rank the strategies based on their importance and order of implementation. The suggested method for managing nervousness is then presented with a numerical case, along with the results. The research outcomes indicate that the top five strategies for managing nervousness include planning continuity, utilizing technology, managing nervousness, improving the SC cyber system, and managing supplies. The findings assist decision makers, practitioners, and managers in focusing on SC improvement, resilience, and sustainability.

Sliding mode observer-based fault diagnosis and continuous control set fault tolerant control for PMSM with demagnetization fault

A fault detection, estimation and fault tolerant control scheme for demagnetization fault in the permanent magnet synchronous motor systems is proposed in this paper. When demagnetization fault occurs, the system will deviate from the normal state severely. To facilitate the calculation, the demagnetization fault is converted to the dq coordinate system for processing and the resistance change is modeled as the system uncertainty, and the effect of the uncertainty on the system is analyzed. Then a fault detection observer is designed to detect the fault occurrence time, and a sliding mode observer based fault estimation algorithm is designed to estimate the fault and disturbance information. The observer parameters are determined by linear matrix inequality. When the fault information is obtained, a continuous control set fault tolerant control scheme is presented to minimize the impact of fault as far as possible. Finally, experimental results provide evidence of the feasibility of the suggested algorithm.

Adaptive output feedback control system design for nonlinear systems via neural networks

AbstractAdaptive output feedback control based on output feedback exponential passivity (OFEP) has a simple structure and strong robustness in regard to disturbances and system uncertainties. However, it is difficult for most nonlinear systems to satisfy the conditions of OFEP. Thus, the introduction of a suitable parallel feedforward compensator (PFC) to construct an OFEP‐augmented system with the controlled system has been used, but the control output cannot achieve perfect tracking because of the output of the introduced PFC. As a solution, introducing a feedforward (FF) input to build a 2 degree of freedom (2‐DOF) is a simple and effective way to solve this problem. In this paper, we propose the design schemes for suitable PFC and FF input of nonlinear systems via the use of neural networks (NN), respectively. Besides, to cope with possibly present input disturbances, we also provide a method to achieve disturbance compensation based on NN to reduce their interference. Finally, the effectiveness of all proposed design schemes is confirmed through numerical simulations.

Grappling with the trade-offs of carbon emission trading and green certificate: Achieving carbon neutrality in China

Although our knowledge of national carbon emission trading system and green certificate trading system are powerful incentive instruments that can deliver on increasingly ambitious climate targets in China, there remains an uncertainty of systems' structural reforms. This study builds on and extends a well-established dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate carbon trading system and green certificate trading system into the modeling framework, simulating a diverse of system development pathways further allows an exploration of the many possible policy effect. Then, using total factor productivity as a comprehensive indicator to asses policy effectiveness, the evolutionary trend of comprehensive effects under different paths are separately evaluated to discover the reforms’ optimal range. Our work offers main results: First, these instruments provide a price signal. The introduction of a carbon allowance auction drive up carbon prices, while the implementation of a green certificate punishment and the expansion of the trading scope promote an increase in green certificate prices. Second, all policy scenarios that help reduce carbon emission intensity and optimize the power supply structure. However, in achieving the net-zero goal, the green certificate policy incurs more economic costs than the carbon trading policy. Indeed, the combination of multiple policy tools alleviates the decline of social welfare levels. Third, synergism design among policy tools: the focus should be on carbon trading policy from 2021 to 2030, green certificate trading policy from 2030 to 2050, and strengthened policy from 2050 to 2060. Reform measures within policies may need to be introduced in a timely manner. This study offers specific insights and tailored policy proposals to support policymakers in balancing environmental goals with economic and social needs in light of the aforementioned findings.

An Adaptive Control Scheme Based on Non-Interference Nonlinearity Approximation for a Class of Nonlinear Cascaded Systems and Its Application to Flexible Joint Manipulators.

Control design for the nonlinear cascaded system is challenging due to its complicated system dynamics and system uncertainty, both of which can be considered some kind of system nonlinearity. In this paper, we propose a novel nonlinearity approximation scheme with a simplified structure, where the system nonlinearity is approximated by a steady component and an alternating component using only local tracking errors. The nonlinearity of each subsystem is estimated independently. On this basis, a model-free adaptive control for a class of nonlinear cascaded systems is proposed. A squared-error correction procedure is introduced to regulate the weight coefficients of the approximation components, which makes the whole adaptive system stable even with the unmodeled uncertainties. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is validated on a flexible joint system through numerical simulations and experiments. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed controller can achieve better control performance than the radial basis function network control. Due to its simplicity and robustness, this method is suitable for engineering applications.

Addressing uncertainty in Participatory Integrated Assessment: qualitative modeling approach for risk estimation

Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) has become a vital tool for decision-making for sustainable development, but it faces significant challenges due to the inherent uncertainty of socio-ecological systems. Uncertainty arises from multiple sources, such as incomplete data, knowledge gaps, and unpredictable events, which can lead to inadequate risk estimations and potentially undermine the effectiveness of environmental planning efforts. To address these challenges, this study proposes a qualitative modeling approach for risk estimation in PIA. The approach employs Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) to combine qualitative insights and information from stakeholders with available quantitative data. It allows for the exploration of alternative future states of the world and the identification of robust scenarios that promote sustainable development. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through the Ecological Ordinance of Yucatán, Mexico, a policy-making tool for multi-sectoral environmental planning. The study shows how qualitative DMDU can identify critical uncertainties and provide insights into regional management strategies. It also emphasizes the importance of stakeholder engagement and transparency in the decision-making process. Overall, this study presents a promising approach for addressing multiple forms of uncertainty in PIA and improving ecological risk estimation for decision-making in complex socio-ecological systems.

Time Transfer in a 1839-km Telecommunication Fiber Link Demonstrating a Picosecond-Scale Stability

Abstract An implementation of high-precision time transfer over a 1839-km field fiber loop back link between two provincial capitals of China, Xi’an and Taiyuan, is reported. Time transfer stabilities of 6.5 ps at averaging time of 1 s and 4.6 ps at 40000 s were achieved. The uncertainty for the time transfer system was evaluated, showing a budget of 56.2 ps. These results stand for a significant milestone in achieving high-precision time transfer over a field fiber link spanning thousands of kilometers, signifying a record-breaking achievement for the real-field time transfer in both stability and distance, which paves the way for constructing the nationwide high-precision time service via fiber network.

Accelerated Gradient Approach For Deep Neural Network-Based Adaptive Control of Unknown Nonlinear Systems.

Recent connections in the adaptive control literature to continuous-time analogs of Nesterov's accelerated gradient method have led to the development of new real-time adaptation laws based on accelerated gradient methods. However, previous results assume that the system's uncertainties are linear-in-the-parameters (LIP). To compensate for non-LIP uncertainties, our preliminary results developed a neural network (NN)-based accelerated gradient adaptive controller to achieve trajectory tracking for nonlinear systems; however, the development and analysis only considered single-hidden-layer NNs. In this article, a generalized deep NN (DNN) architecture with an arbitrary number of hidden layers is considered, and a new DNN-based accelerated gradient adaptation scheme is developed to generate estimates of all the DNN weights in real-time. A nonsmooth Lyapunov-based analysis is used to guarantee the developed accelerated gradient-based DNN adaptation design achieves global asymptotic tracking error convergence for general nonlinear control affine systems subject to unknown (non-LIP) drift dynamics and exogenous disturbances. A comprehensive set of simulation studies are conducted on a two-state nonlinear system, a robotic manipulator, and a complex 20-D nonlinear system to demonstrate the improved performance of the developed method. Our simulation studies demonstrate enhanced tracking and function approximation performance from both DNN architectures and accelerated gradient adaptation.

Development of sliding mode control based on diagonal recurrent neural network for coupled tank system

This study presents the development of sliding mode control (SMC) using the diagonal recurrent neural network (DRNN) for nonlinear systems. Firstly, the SMC for linear systems is developed for nonlinear coupled tank system. Second, the DRNN is used to design the equivalent part of the SMC law, which is performed to approximate the dynamics of a controlled process. Third, the sliding surface for the switching control is developed using the DRNN. The DRNN parameters are tuned using Lyapunov function to achieve the controlled process stability. For the developed scheme, discontinuous signum function is used to compensate the chattering phenomenon. The developed scheme is applied for controlling the uncertain nonlinear coupled tank system. The simulation results indicate that the developed scheme can respond to the effects of system uncertainties compared to other existing schemes.