System-based Approach Research Articles

MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES EFFECTIVENESS IN MODERN RUSSIAN INSTITUTION IN THE CONTEXT OF HEAD WORKPLACE MODELING

Purpose: The scientific approach to the organization of labor and the workplace of the institution head involves the search for the most optimal model or technique acceptable to the Russian conditions within the current management culture, traditional views on the nature of managerial work, the scale and effectiveness of management activities.
 Methodology: Methodological guidelines for the study of workplaces’ organization of credit and financial institutions’ heads are based on the provisions of modern ergonomics and the principles of a system-based approach, allowing justifying as a significant one the environment-oriented approach.
 Result: The obtained results served as the basis for the development of appropriate recommendations to optimize the current situation in the context of eliminating existing gaps and problems in the credit and financial sector of the Russian economy from the standpoint of optimizing the process of organizing working places for managers of institutions in this profile.
 Applications: This research can be used for universities, teachers, and students.
 Novelty/Originality: In this research, the model of the Management Activities Effectiveness in Modern Russian Institution in the context of Head Workplace Modeling is presented in a comprehensive and complete manner.

43. Reduction in mortality in pediatric patients undergoing surgery for non-idiopathic scoliosis by implementing a multidisciplinary screening process

BACKGROUND CONTEXT Pediatric patients undergoing surgery for non-idiopathic scoliosis (neuromuscular, syndromic, and congenital scoliosis) experience significantly more complications than those with idiopathic scoliosis. Operating on these patients can lead to serious complications including death. Recent reports have demonstrated the benefits of establishing a system-based multidisciplinary approach in the perioperative period in reducing complications for adult spinal deformity. Studies are limited regarding this benefit to a complex pediatric spine population. At our institution, a series of serious complications resulted in the development of a similar consensus-based approach by developing a multidisciplinary (“Multi-D”) screening protocol. PURPOSE To compare complications before and after implementation of the Multi-D screening protocol in pediatric patients undergoing spinal instrumentation for non-idiopathic scoliosis. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING Retrospective cohort study at a single pediatric institution in all cases involving spinal instrumentation for non-idiopathic scoliosis. PATIENT SAMPLE All pediatric patients undergoing spinal instrumentation (n = 251) for non-idiopathic scoliosis at a single institution from 2012-2016. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality at 30 days and 1 year; surgical site infections (SSI); pneumonia in 30 days; instrument failure in 1 year; readmission in 30 days; return to OR and emergency room visits in 90 days. METHODS This is a retrospective review of all cases involving spinal instrumentation at Texas Children's Hospital for 2 years before and after the initiation of our Neuromuscular Spine Surgery Care Plan in July 2014. The care plan involves a 5-step process before surgery, including: (1) surgical indications review; (2) Pulmonary and Nutrition evaluation; (3) initial anesthesia screening; (4) the Multi-D screening conference; and (5) a final anesthesia screening. Patients may undergo multiple iterations until they are cleared. Study sample was n = 129 cases (107 patients) prior to the initiation of the process and n = 122 cases (109 patients) thereafter. Continuous variables were analyzed by Student's t-test and Categorical variables were analyzed by Chi-Square Test. RESULTS The study populations were matched by age (12.3 ± 3.8 pre vs 12.6 ± 3.41 post, p = 0.50) and gender (55 M:52 F pre vs 43 M:60 F post, p = 0.17). Patients passing the multi-D conference had higher BMI (18.8 ± 4.6 pre vs 20.9 ± 5.3 post, p CONCLUSIONS Implementation of a Multi-D conference for pediatric patients undergoing spinal instrumentation for non-idiopathic scoliosis led to a significant reduction in mortality at 1 year, while other minor complications remained similar. The main difference in preoperative characteristics was higher BMI. Overall, the Multi-D approach is an important safety process to reduce serious complications after non-idiopathic scoliosis surgery. FDA DEVICE/DRUG STATUS This abstract does not discuss or include any applicable devices or drugs.

A Patient-centered, System-based Approach to Improve Informed Dialysis Choice and Outcomes in Veterans With CKD

A Patient-centered, System-based Approach to Improve Informed Dialysis Choice and Outcomes in Veterans With CKD

Technology Focus: Subsea Systems

Technology Focus Alternative solutions to traditional subsea production systems received more attention when the oil price was so low that only a few potential subsea field developments seemed to be profitable. During the past few years, more focus has been on how to use existing infrastructure to get more oil and gas from reservoirs than originally planned with its own platform or floating production, storage, and offloading vessel. A subsea system with a long pipeline back to the nearest existing process plant with available capacity, in many cases, makes a field development economically attractive even at low oil prices. However, some challenges need to be overcome by new technology when oil, water, and gas are to be transported in long subsea pipelines. In oil fields that are currently being considered, the length of these pipelines is typically 20 to 50 km, but tieback distances in gas fields today can be up to 220 km, as described in one of the papers presented at OTC this year (OTC 29232). A major challenge in nearly all long subsea tiebacks is related to flow assurance. Hours, in some cases days, are required for the fluid to travel through a pipeline surrounded by cold water. The drop in temperature results in higher viscosity, wax deposition, and hydrate formation. The backpressure from friction losses and flow-regime effects also can restrict flow. Hence, innovative solutions are required to complement traditional subsea production systems that are based on natural flow to the surface. Various system alternatives have been proposed and developed, but the use of subsea multiphase pumps at the seabed has so far been the most successful solution. However, the development of a pumping system that can be used at great water depths involves much more than just packaging of motors and pumps for subsea applications. The system needs electrical power to be transferred over long distances, and with this comes equipment such as subsea connectors, transformers, switch gears, and frequency converters. The status of some of these technologies is described in this feature’s synopses. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. OTC 29232 Real-Time Subsea Hydrate Management in the World’s Longest Subsea Tieback by Christophe Vielliard, OneSubsea, a Schlumberger Company, et al. OTC 29647 Unlocking Subsea Reserves Through a System-Based Approach for Tieback Solutions by Kristian Mikalsen, National Oilwell Varco, et al. OTC 29307 Qualification and Case Studies of a Subsea Chemical Storage and Injection Unit by Art J. Schroeder Jr., Safe Marine Transfer, et al.

Opportunities and Challenges for Implementing Neurotrauma Prevention Program: A Practical Perspective for Developing Countries

AbstractNeurotrauma is an underestimated and less understood public health issue in low- and middle-income countries for which we need system-based approach to prevention plans. This study was initiated to find rationale of effective plan with projectile vision of neurotrauma prevention. In search of innovative ideas of neurotrauma prevention evidence was explored from the published literature research on traumatic brain injury. Evidence-based global guidelines on recommended content and scheduling on prevention of neurotrauma literature searches data were also synthesized and summarized from research in developed countries. Our study noted that a considerable number of victims of neurotrauma with death and disabilities put mammoth costs to the already compromised health systems of the low- and middle-income countries. We need systems-based four-pronged approach incorporating neurotrauma registry, neurotrauma surveillance, translational research programs, and current approved process for development of clinical guidelines for prevention.

How Medical Error Shapes Physicians' Perceptions of Learning: An Exploratory Study.

Error is inevitable in medicine, given its inherent uncertainty and complexity. Errors can teach powerful lessons; however, because of physicians' self-imposed silence and the intricacies of responsibility and blame, learning from medical error has been underexplored. The purpose of this study was to understand how physicians perceived learning from medical errors by exploring the tension between responsibility and blame and factors that affected physicians' learning. Nineteen physicians participated in semistructured interviews, conducted in 2016-2017 at Western University in Canada, that probed their experiences in learning from medical errors. Data collection and analysis were conducted iteratively, with themes identified through constant comparative analysis. Participants felt personal responsibility and blame for their errors. Residency produced particularly salient memories of errors. Participants identified interconnecting cultural factors (normalizing error, peer support and mentorship, formal rounds) and individual factors (emotional response, confidence and experience), which either helped or hindered their perceived learning. Learning from medical error requires navigation through blame and responsibility. The keen responsibility felt by physicians must be acknowledged when enacting a system-based approach to medical error. Adopting a learning culture perspective suggests opportunities to enable and disable features of the learning environment to optimize learning from error as residents learn to become the most responsible physician for all outcomes. A better understanding of the factors that shape learning from error can help make the transition from error to learning more explicit, thereby increasing the opportunity to learn and teach from errors that permeate the practice of medicine.

Using meta-networks to analyse the impact of adverse random events on the time and cost of completing

According to the concept of a system-based approach, a construction project can be treated as a complex system composed of various elements, such as human, equipment and material resources, as well as knowledge and tasks that are mutually interlinked. In the classical approach to construction project risk assessment, the impact of the “system” in the analysis of relationships between risk sources and their consequences has so far been neglected. The concept of construction project vulnerability and its adaptability has appeared in literature in recent years. It is analysed on the basis of a project’s vulnerability to the impact of risk factors and its adaptive capacity is seen an answer to project perturbations caused by adverse random events. As a part of developing the system-based approach to analysing construction project schedule, the author further developed the concept of modelling planned construction projects with relationship meta-networks composed of four types of nodes: agents (human resources), knowledge, equipment and material resources and tasks. The author included possible deviations from the planned project’s budget in the schedule vulnerability and adaptability analysis, instead of only focusing on deviations from its completion deadline. An analysis of the occurrence of additional and replacement work was introduced by the author, which further developed the concept of the simulated evolution of such networks to include the capacity to introduce new nodes and links into their structure. Furthermore, the author used the potential of weighted meta-networks to model certain dependencies within the planned project. A simulation-based approach as a part of DNA (dynamic network analysis) was used to analyse the vulnerability and adaptability of such networks. The proposed approach was presented on the example of a renovation project performed on a historical structure. The conclusions drawn from the author’s analyses can be used to formulate construction project schedules that are less vulnerable to perturbations and are characterised by greater adaptability. In the future, the author plans to expand the analysis presented above to include dependencies in single-mode networks (e.g. in agent, resource or knowledge networks) on the meta-network of a project.

A system-based approach to the genetic etiologies of non-immune hydrops fetalis.

A wide spectrum of genetic causes may lead to nonimmune hydrops fetalis (NIHF), and a thorough phenotypic and genetic evaluation are essential to determine the underlying etiology, optimally manage these pregnancies, and inform discussions about anticipated prognosis. In this review, we outline the known genetic etiologies of NIHF by fetal organ system affected, and provide a systematic approach to the evaluation of NIHF. Some of the underlying genetic disorders are associated with characteristic phenotypic features that may be seen on prenatal ultrasound, such as hepatomegaly with lysosomal storage disorders, hyperechoic kidneys with congenital nephrosis, or pulmonary valve stenosis with RASopathies. However, this is not always the case, and the approach to evaluation must include prenatal ultrasound findings as well as genetic testing and many other factors. Genetic testing that has been utilized for NIHF ranges from standard chromosomal microarray or karyotype to gene panels and broad approaches such as whole exome sequencing. Family and obstetric history, as well as pathology examination, can yield additional clues that are helpful in establishing a diagnosis. A systematic approach to evaluation can guide a more targeted approach to genetic evaluation, diagnosis, and management of NIHF.

Pharmacovigilance systems in resource-limited settings: an evaluative case study of Sierra Leone

Few low and middle-income countries (LMIC) have fully operational pharmacovigilance structures, systems and legal framework to collect and collate safety data and evaluate the risks and benefits by active and passive approaches. However, in a LMIC such as Sierra Leone, the capacity to manage the risks by taking appropriate preventative actions to help inform therapeutic decisions, promote rational use of medicines, guide risk management and communications is gradually growing but yet to be fully optimized.This study sought to assess the current status of pharmacovigilance in Sierra Leone since it became the 87th member of the World Health Organisation International Drug Monitoring Programme. This study evaluated the pharmacovigilance system in Sierra Leone through a comprehensive and system-based approach that covered the national medicines regulatory authority, health facilities and public health programmes. A descriptive cross-sectional study design was employed. Using a convenience sampling method, 14 respondents from the national medicines regulatory authority, six health facilities and six public health programmes were interviewed.Data were collected using a validated metric instrument: Indicator-Based Pharmacovigilance Assessment Tool. A scoring system was used for the quantification of assessment results with a score greater than 60% indicating that an organization has structural and policy frameworks to collect and collate safety data in a national database and evaluate the risks and benefits by both active and passive approaches.The study findings showed that the national medicines regulatory authority scored 79% and thus met the standard requirements of pharmacovigilance. On the other hand, the health facilities and public health programmes scored less than 60% indicating the need to fully operationalise pharmacovigilance frameworks at these levels. The study further demonstrated that the national medicine regulatory authority which hosts the national pharmacovigilance centre had functional pharmacovigilance structures and processes with potential to providing leadership in the implementation of pharmacovigilance in Sierra Leone.

Testing the feasibility of a system-based approach to deliver a smoking cessation and food nudging intervention at food pantry sites.

Food-insecure adults disproportionately experience high cardiovascular risk. Guided by the Feeding America recommendations, we tested the feasibly of a system-based approach to address the cardiovascular risk behaviors of current smoking and dietary choice at food distribution sites. Food pantries affiliated with the Food Bank of Delaware organization (N = 14) were invited to take part. Pantries who agreed solicited personnel within the pantry (i.e., staff, active volunteers) to become trained as quit-smoking coaches and/or food environment "nudging" interventionists. After training, trained personnel implemented the evidence-based treatments. Across a 6-month observation period, quit coaches reported each month on the number of (a) enrolled food pantry clients, (b) total quit-smoking sessions scheduled and attended, and (c) the smoking status of clients who attended the final, third session. Trained evaluators visited participating pantries once per month across the observation period to assess adherence to nudging guidelines. One in five (21%; 3/14) invited pantries participated in the study, and five personnel were trained to deliver intervention components. Across the observation period, quit coaches reported that 86 new smoking cessation clients were enrolled, 228 quit coaching sessions were scheduled, and 187 attended (82% attendance rate). Smoking cessation rates were estimated at 19%-36%. A 100% adherence to the food nudging approach was observed. These data demonstrate the feasibility of a system-based approach to build the capacity of food distribution sites and personnel to deliver smoking cessation quit-coaching and food nudging interventions on-site.

Task sharing: situation analysis about capacity and resources for management of diabetic retinopathy in Pakistan.

To assess the capacity and resources of eye care facilities, using the WHO Health Systems Framework, to manage diabetic retinopathy (DR) through task sharing. Using purposive sampling, four participants (administrators) from four selected hospitals in two provinces in Pakistan were recruited for this cross-sectional study. A survey, to assess the capacity and resources of the selected eye care facilities for the feasibility to adopt task sharing in management of DR to prevent vision loss, was emailed to participants who were asked to complete. Responses to open-ended questions were entered into a Microsoft Excel spread sheet and inductive approach was applied for analysis. All the surveyed eye care facilities offer eye care services for people with diabetes and DR. All surveyed eye care facilities have a shortage in the number of human resources across all cadres. Optometrists and mid-level eye care workers did not have active roles in DR screening and management in all four hospitals. All the hospitals surveyed did not have a computerized record management system for patients who visit ophthalmologists for eye examinations. Equipment for detection and management of DR were short in number and main users were ophthalmologists. There was no policy for population-based screening program for detection of DR in any of the surveyed hospitals. A system-based approach to manage DR is needed. The capacity of eye care facilities and the potential to improve access of people with diabetes to eye care services can be enhanced through implementation of task sharing.

A Multiscale Assessment of Shallow Groundwater Salinization in Michigan

Managing nonpoint-source (NPS) pollution of groundwater systems is a significant challenge because of the heterogeneous nature of the subsurface, high costs of data collection, and the multitude of scales involved. In this study, we assessed a particularly complex NPS groundwater pollution problem in Michigan, namely, the salinization of shallow aquifer systems due to natural upwelling of deep brines. We applied a system-based approach to characterize, across multiple scales, the integrated groundwater quantity-quality dynamics associated with the brine upwelling process, assimilating a variety of modeling tools and data-including statewide water well datasets scarcely used for larger scientific analysis. Specifically, we combined (1) data-driven modeling of massive amounts of groundwater/geologic information across multiple spatial scales with (2) detailed analysis of groundwater salinity dynamics and process-based flow modeling at local scales. Statewide "hotspots" were delineated and county-level severity rankings were developed based on dissolved chloride (Cl- ) concentration percentiles. Within local hotspots, the relative impact of upwelling was determined to be controlled by: (1) streams-which act as "natural pumps" that bring deeper (more mineralized) groundwater to the surface; (2) the occurrence of nearly impervious geologic material at the surface-which restricts fresh water dilution of deeper, saline groundwater; and (3) the space-time evolution of water well withdrawals-which induces slow migration of saline groundwater from its natural course. This multiscale, data-intensive approach significantly improved our understanding of the brine upwelling processes in Michigan, and has applicability elsewhere given the growing availability of statewide water well databases.

The utilization of ecosystem services mapping in land use planning: the experience of LIFE SAM4CP project

Ecosystem Service assessment requires better integration of the information that supports land use decisions. Nevertheless, the interpretation of maps and their utilisation to address sustainability during the land use planning process remains critical, especially at a local scale. In this study, a Geographic Information System-Based approach is presented to transform an Ecosystem Service biophysical multipart analysis into a composite parcel-scale indicator, mainly using Esri ArcGIS (version 10.5) functions, and particularly: (i) the Weighted Overlay, (ii) Hotspot Analysis and (iii) Aggregation of Polygons. This methodology has been used experimentally in three municipalities of the metropolitan city of Turin (Italy) during the LIFE SAM4CP project. The study aims to demonstrate how the operationalisation of Ecosystem Service assessment in planning aided Local Administrations in defining land use planning priorities, such as the identification of land take control strategies and the definition of Urban Growth Boundaries.

Dealing with health literacy at the organisational level, French translation and adaptation of the Vienna health literate organisation self-assessment tool

BackgroundEfforts to address health literacy should favour a system-based approach with the dual aim both of fostering the material conditions and creating a work culture inside health care organisations that makes it easier for people to use information. The Vienna Health Literate Organisation (V-HLO) self-assessment tool is a German-speaking questionnaire for quality managers of health care organisations. Its objective is to provide a diagnostic of the strengths and weaknesses of the organisation in terms of health literacy. Our goal was to translate and culturally adapt this questionnaire for the French-speaking part of Belgium.MethodsWe followed the Translation, Review, Adjudication, Pretesting, and Documentation (TRAPD) team model for cross-cultural translation of questionnaires. We used cognitive interviews with quality experts to pre-test the translation.ResultsCognitive interviews allowed us to improve the translation by removing certain ambiguities, providing contextual clarifications or rephrasing some items in such a way as to render them more culturally appropriate. Local experts generally judged the tool to be relevant and applicable to their context. The insight gained with regard to their cognitive process when completing the V-HLO allowed us to identify possible barriers to the adoption of the tool (such as difficulties in considering staff literacy as a relevant target for the tool, fear of overwhelming staff, a feeling that some items fell outside the scope of health literacy and lack of attention for integration of services with primary care) and could contribute to the future development of the tool.ConclusionWe translated and adapted the V-HLO self-assessment tool for French. The French version of the V-HLO will now be implemented in our local context to assess whether it can make it easier for people to deal with the complexities of health care organisations.

Turkish Neonatal Society guideline to the approach, follow-up, and treatment of neonatal jaundice.

Jaundice is one of the most common problems in the newborn. It is generally accepted as a physiologic condition; most cases are benign and transient. However, in a small portion of jaundiced newborn infants, serum bilirubin concentrations increase to a level at which irreversible brain damage can occur. The timely diagnosis and management of severe hyperbilirubinemia is essential to prevent acute bilirubin encephalopathy and kernicterus. Kernicterus still occurs although it is almost always preventable. The focus of this guideline is to reduce the incidence of severe hyperbilirubinemia and bilirubin encephalopathy. Therefore, a system-based approach using the recommendations of this guideline should be implemented in all birthing facilities and continued in ambulatory care of the newborn infants.

Vulnerability analysis of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change: an agro-ecological system-based approach in the Fincha\u2019a sub-basin of the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

BackgroundEthiopia is frequently cited as a country that is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The country’s high vulnerability arises mostly from climate-sensitive agricultural sector that suffers a lot from risks associated with rainfall variability. The vulnerability factors (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) of the agricultural livelihoods to climate variability and change differ across agro-ecological systems (AESs). Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze AES-specific vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change in the Fincha’a sub-basin. We surveyed 380 respondents from 4 AESs (highland, midland, wetland, and lowland) randomly selected. Furthermore, focus group discussion and key informant interviews were also performed to supplement and substantiate the quantitative data. Livelihood vulnerability index was employed to analyze the levels of smallholders’ agriculture vulnerability to climate variability and change. Data on socioeconomic and biophysical attribute were collected and combined into the indices and vulnerability score was calculated for each agro-ecological system.ResultsConsiderable variation was observed across the agro-ecological systems in profile, indicator, and the three livelihood vulnerability indices-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change dimensions (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) of vulnerability. The lowland AES exhibited higher exposure, low adaptive capacity, and high vulnerability, while the midland AES demonstrated lower exposure, higher adaptive capacity, and lower vulnerability. The wetland and highland AESs scored intermediate results.ConclusionOur results suggest that resilience-building adaptation strategies are vital to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farmers. The measures taken should consider site-specific agro-ecological system requirements to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder mixed crop-livestock agriculture system. Since the approach based on the long-term realization of the community, any strategy designed based on such assessments is applicable to local condition.

MANAGEMENT (ADMINISTRATIVE) ACTIVITY OF THE CONTROLLING AUTHORITIES IN THE AREA OF TAXATION: ESSENCE AND TYPES

The innovation of conceptual provisions of the administrative law doctrine that are based on the priority of rights, freedoms, legitimate interests of an individual, service orientation of the public administration authorities’ performance affects the essence of the controlling authorities’ management (administrative) activity in the area of taxation and requires its fundamental upgrade. Drafting of theoretical provisions as to the essence and the types of the controlling authorities’ management (administrative) activity in the area of taxation should be based on a profound theoretical and legal analysis of the existing concepts and doctrines and their comparison with the current developments in the public administration authorities’ performance that carry out similar activities. In addition, it’s reasonable to highlight the issues of legal regulation of the relations with respect to the controlling authorities’ management (administrative) activity carried out in the area of taxation. The research objective is to substantiate the theoretical background of the controlling authorities’ management (administrative) activity in the area of taxation set out in the form of a list of the substantive characteristics of such activity, the provisions that reflect its peculiarities, as well as the systematization of the lines and types of such activity. The object of the research is the social relations of a public-law nature, related to the activities of the controlling authorities in the area of taxation. The contemporary concepts and doctrines developed by the scientists through critical thinking constitute the theoretical basis of the scientific analysis. This article explores the scientific papers related to the issues of public administration, administrative law, and administrative activity. System-based approach constitutes the methodology of the scientific analysis which made it possible to single out the elements of the administrative activity system, to reveal their content and to take into account their specific features when determining the nature of the controlling authorities’ management (administrative) activity in the area of taxation. The result of this research is the theory that reveals the current essence of the specified activity and its lines. This article places emphasis on the existence of public and service component of the specified activity.

Formal modelling and verifying elasticity strategies in cloud systems

Elasticity property allows cloud systems to adapt to their input workload by provisioning and deprovisioning resources as the demand grows and drops. However, due to the unpredictable nature of workload, providing accurate action plans to manage a cloud system's elasticity is a particularly challenging task. In this study, the authors propose a bigraphical reactive system-based approach to provide a formal modelling of cloud systems’ structure using bigraphs, and their elastic behaviours using bigraphical reaction rules. They introduce elasticity strategies to describe cloud systems’ auto-adaptation behaviours. One step further, they encode the bigraphical specifications into Maude language to enable an autonomic executability of the elastic behaviours and verify their correctness. Finally, they propose a queuing-based approach to discuss and analyse elasticity strategies in cloud systems through different simulated scenarios.

Automatic Identification System-Based Approach for Assessing the Near-Miss Collision Risk Dynamics of Ships in Ports

Vessel risk analysis is critical for safe ship navigation and maritime safety management. Near-miss collisions by ships comprise an significant risk, which may be complicated by factors, such as the ship conditions, waterway environment, and driving behavior of any ships encountered. Previous studies have rarely considered how to automatically and adaptively estimate the risk of near-miss collisions for different situations, particularly in port areas. In this paper, we propose an automatic identification system-based approach for adaptively calibrating near-miss collision risk model and assessing a ship's near-miss collision risk by using the vessel's speed and course patterns to obtain a robust estimate of the collision risk. Six measures are employed to determine the hierarchical geographical distribution of the near-miss collision risk for ships in port areas and to identify the high-risk areas. Some predicted high-risk areas were validated as official precautionary areas in the Xiamen Port area. All predicted areas may help the port administration to plan monitoring areas to ensure safe traffic flow in the port.

СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЕ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКОГО УПРАВЛЕНИЯ МУНИЦИПАЛЬНЫМ РАЗВИТИЕМ НА ОСНОВЕ БАЛАНСОВО-ОПТИМИЗАЦИОННОЙ МОДЕЛИ

In the paper proved is the necessity of using system-based approach and modern mathematic and economic instruments in municipal management to increase the efficiency of management decision-making. Described is the balance-optimization economic-mathematical model that allows optimizing the growth of the key indicators of municipal units. The main instrument of the model is the method of dynamic programming developed by Richard Bellman. Used and projected in the model are the factors included in the list of the key indicators assessing the performance of municipal administration. The model predicts the development in the long run – for the period of 25 years. There is a positive experience with the application of this model for two small towns: Berdsk and Kyzyl. In the paper analyzed are the results of using the model for a large municipal formation – the city of Novosibirsk. Calculations have shown that in general the model may work with actual economic information and yields positive results but along with this it requires being adapted to the size of a municipal entity and the structure of the key indicators of its development.