Synoptic Weather Types Research Articles

Effects of synoptic weather on ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in the United States

It is known that individual meteorological factors affect the concentrations of fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), yet the specific meteorological effects found in previous studies are largely inconsistent and even conflicting. This study investigates influences of daily and short term changes in synoptic weather on ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in a large geographical area (75 cities across the contiguous United States (U.S.)) by using ten-year (2001–2010) spatial synoptic classification (SSC) data. We find that in the spring, summer, and fall the presence of the tropical weather types (i.e., dry-tropical (DT) and moist-tropical (MT)) is likely to associate with significantly higher levels of PM2.5 as compared to an all-weather-type-day average, and the presence of the polar weather types (i.e., dry-polar (DP) and moist-polar (MP)) is associated with significantly lower PM2.5 concentrations. The short-term (day to day) changes in synoptic weather types in a region are also likely to lead to significant variance in PM2.5 concentrations. For example, the largest increase in PM2.5 concentration occurs with the synoptic weather type changing from DP-to-MT. Conversely, a MT-to-DP weather type change results in the largest decrease in PM2.5 concentrations. Compared to air temperature, the effects of atmospheric moisture on PM2.5 concentration tend to be subtle, demonstrating that in conjunction with moderate temperature, neither the dry nor the moist air (except moist-moderate (MM) in summer) are associated with significantly high or low PM2.5 concentrations. Finally, we find that the effects of the synoptic weather type on PM2.5 concentrations may vary for different seasons and geographical areas. These findings suggest that interactions between atmospheric factors and seasonal and/or geographical factors have considerable impacts on the PM2.5 concentrations, and therefore should be considered in addition to the SSC when conducting environment health assessments.

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975–2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December–May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

Daily synoptic conditions associated with large fire occurrence in Mediterranean France: evidence for a wind-driven fire regime

Changes in wildfire activity in the Mediterranean area over recent decades increase the need for a better understanding of the fire weather relationships and for the development of reliable models to improve fire danger prediction. This study analyses daily synoptic and local weather conditions associated with the occurrence of summer large fires (LFs) in Mediterranean France during recent decades (1973-2013). The links between large fire occurrence and synoptic conditions are analysed with composites of sea level pressure and winds at 925 hPa and a parsimonious synoptic weather type (WT) classification based on these variables. A cluster analysis is used to identify five homogeneous regions with similar inter-annual variations in lire activity. Our results reveal a dominant wind-driven lire regime, i.e. wind conditions are the main factor explaining why fire become large, though substantial temporal and spatial variations are observed. Thus, most LFs occur under the `Atlantic Ridge' WT that combines an anticyclonic ridge over eastern Atlantic and a cyclonic anomaly stretched from the North Sea to Central/Eastern Europe and Mediterranean basin. This pattern is significantly related at local scale to fast continental dry winds. By contrast, only few LFs occur under WT's characterized by anomalously warm local-scale conditions ('Blocking'), except under very warm and dry conditions such as during the outstanding 2003 summer. These results offer promising developments for the improvement of fire danger predictions and operational management.

Summarising climate and air quality (ozone) data on self-organising maps: a Sydney case study.

This paper explores the classification and visualisation utility of the self-organising map (SOM) method in the context of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using gridded NCEP/NCAR geopotential height reanalysis for east Australia, together with multi-site meteorological and air quality data for Sydney from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Air Quality Monitoring Network. A twice-daily synoptic classification has been derived for east Australia for the period of 1958-2012. The classification has not only reproduced the typical synoptic patterns previously identified in the literature but also provided an opportunity to visualise the subtle, non-linear change in the eastward-migrating synoptic systems influencing NSW (including Sydney). The summarisation of long-term, multi-site air quality/meteorological data from the Sydney basin on the SOM plane has identified a set of typical air pollution/meteorological spatial patterns in the region. Importantly, the examination of these patterns in relation to synoptic weather types has provided important visual insights into how local and synoptic meteorological conditions interact with each other and affect the variability of air quality in tandem. The study illustrates that while synoptic circulation types are influential, the within-type variability in mesoscale flows plays a critical role in determining local ozone levels in Sydney. These results indicate that the SOM can be a useful tool for assessing the impact of weather and climatic conditions on air quality in the regional airshed. This study further promotes the use of the SOM method in environmental research.

Spatial patterns in the oxygen isotope composition of daily rainfall in the British Isles

Understanding the modern day relationship between climate and the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18OP) is crucial for obtaining rigorous palaeoclimate reconstructions from a variety of archives. To date, the majority of empirical studies into the meteorological controls over δ18OP rely upon daily, event scale, or monthly time series from individual locations, resulting in uncertainties concerning the representativeness of statistical models and the mechanisms behind those relationships. Here, we take an alternative approach by analysing daily patterns in δ18OP from multiple stations across the British Isles (n = 10–70 stations). We use these data to examine the spatial and seasonal heterogeneity of regression statistics between δ18OP and common predictors (temperature, precipitation amount and the North Atlantic Oscillation index; NAO). Temperature and NAO are poor predictors of daily δ18OP in the British Isles, exhibiting weak and/or inconsistent effects both spatially and between seasons. By contrast δ18OP and rainfall amount consistently correlate at most locations, and for all months analysed, with spatial and temporal variability in the regression coefficients. The maps also allow comparison with daily synoptic weather types, and suggest characteristic δ18OP patterns, particularly associated with Cylonic Lamb Weather Types. Mapping daily δ18OP across the British Isles therefore provides a more coherent picture of the patterns in δ18OP, which will ultimately lead to a better understanding of the climatic controls. These observations are another step forward towards developing a more detailed, mechanistic framework for interpreting stable isotopes in rainfall as a palaeoclimate and hydrological tracer.

Influential synoptic weather types for a future renewable energy dependent national electricity market

This study presents an analysis of the synoptic scale influences on potential re-newable energy output for eastern Australia (the National Electricity Market (NEM) region). Common synoptic scale weather patterns are identified using a Self-Organising Map (SOM) of 1989-2009 ERA-Interim Mean Sea-Level Pres-sure (MSLP) for the Australian region. Using wind speed and surface shortwave radiation output from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) regional model (ACCESS-R) for 2010-2011, in tandem with a Genetic Algorithm, a cost-optimal placement of renewable resources for the NEM is derived. Moments of very low output from the combination of wind and solar are then analysed to show that a ridging high pressure system south of Perth and a summer continental heat low significantly co-occur with very low output. Another MSLP type represented by a cold front approaching South Aus-tralia was shown to never associate with very low output. An investigation into the 2010-2011 period when compared to the previous 21 years showed that the La Nina conditions during 2010-2011 period were more challenging than nor-mal for wind and solar for some areas. What the study also shows is that despite the large geographical area the NEM region cannot rely solely on non-dispatchable renewable electricity, without installing unrealistic amounts of over-capacity.

Development and application of a logistic model to estimate the past and future hail potential in Germany

AbstractThis study investigates to what extent the frequency of hail events in the summer months has changed during the past decades and which changes are expected to occur in the future. To improve the diagnostics of hail events by considering various factors relevant for the formation of hail, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. This statistical model is based on a combination of appropriate meteorological parameters (convective parameter, moisture content, etc.) and synoptic weather types. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index. Validations with independent data sets confirm the reliability of the model results. For Germany, the logistic hail model applied to reanalysis data over the past decades shows a markedly north‐to‐south gradient with most of the potential hail days occurring in the south. Applied to an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations, it is found that the potential for hail events will increase in the future (2021–2050) compared to the past (1971–2000), but only statistically significant in the northwest and south of Germany.

Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010.

Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10% (1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69% (95% CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0°C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.

Synoptic weather types and aeroallergens modify the effect of air pollution on hospitalisations for asthma hospitalisations in Canadian cities

Pollution levels and the effect of air pollution on human health can be modified by synoptic weather type and aeroallergens. We investigated the effect modification of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisation rates in seven synoptic weather types. We developed single air pollutant models, adjusted for the effect of aeroallergens and stratified by synoptic weather type, and pooled relative risk estimates for asthma hospitalisation in ten Canadian cities. Aeroallergens significantly modified the relative risk in 19 pollutant-weather type combinations, reducing the size and variance for each single pollutant model. However, aeroallergens did not significantly modify relative risk for any pollutant in the DT or MT weather types, or for PM10 in any weather type. Thus, there is a modifying effect of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisations that differs under specific synoptic weather types.

A hybrid procedure for classifying synoptic weather types for Louisiana, USA

ABSTRACTA hybrid synoptic classification procedure for classifying Louisiana weather types based on the manual Muller system is presented. This procedure produces a synoptic classification system for Louisiana that harnesses the strengths of both manual and automated classifications, while eliminating the weaknesses. The Muller weather types archive from 1981 to 2001 is used in conjunction with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis dataset to develop sea level pressure composites for each Muller weather type. The composites are used as seeds in an automated correlation‐based algorithm to generate weather types from 1981 to 2001. Results of the automated procedure are compared to the Muller weather type catalog. Despite systematic differences between the two classifications, including the inability of the hybrid procedure to identify frontal placement, the hybrid classification correctly matched the Muller weather type for 52% of the seed days. In addition, the automated catalog captured the seasonal distribution and interannual variability of the Muller types remarkably well. The hybrid synoptic weather classification system applied to weather properties at Shreveport and New Orleans showed significant differences between weather types. The automated procedure does not replicate the Muller weather type classification exactly; however, it is homogenous within itself and has value for describing the variability of surface weather in Louisiana. In fact, it is arguably advantageous for some applications, owing to its objectivity, speed, and reproducibility.

Surface ozone concentration trends and its relationship with weather types in Spain (2001–2010)

This paper assesses the temporal variations of surface ozone concentrations during the period 2001–2010 in 3 regions of Spain with different geographical and socioeconomic features (northern coastland, central inland and northeast inland), as well as its link with atmospheric circulation. Specifically, daily surface atmospheric patterns over the aforementioned regions are characterized using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and an objective classification scheme in order to study the relationship between synoptic weather types and daily ozone levels. The results show that tropospheric ozone concentration has a tendency towards an increase during the study period, both during daytime and nighttime. Moreover, in general, this upward trend is seen throughout all of the seasons. The observed trends are in line with a reported decrease of NOX emissions and increase in surface solar radiation during the 2000s in Spain. On the other hand, interestingly, median concentrations were statistically significantly lower in days with anticyclonic weather conditions than in the rest of meteorological situations, while days with a directional weather type showed higher median levels of ozone concentration, with maximum values in days with northern and eastern component. Due to the detrimental effect that ozone has on human health, the relationship between synoptic weather patterns and daily ozone levels shown in this work could potentially be used for implementing pollution level alert protocols depending on forecast weather types.

Multi-decadal classification of synoptic weather types, observed trends and links to rainfall characteristics over Saudi Arabia

An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was employed to characterize daily circulation conditions in Saudi Arabia from 1960 to 2005. Daily gridded fields of sea level pressure (SLP) from both the NCEP/NCAR and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA40) were used as input data for this classification. The output catalogue included 10 basic types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the region (i.e., cyclonic, anti-cyclonic and directional). In general, our findings indicate that cyclonic (C) days represent the most frequent type among all days, with 69.2% of the annual count of days from 1960 to 2005, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also determined that airflows originating from the Indian Ocean (i.e., S, SE and E) are more frequent than those from the Mediterranean and Red Seas (i.e., W, NW and SW). The defined weather types were assessed for the presence of inter-annual and intra-annual trends using the Mann-Kendall tau statistic. The trend analysis suggests statistically significant changes in the frequencies of a majority of the weather types from 1960 to 2005. The relationship between the daily occurrence of rainfall and the frequency of individual weather types was also described using daily rainfall data from a network of 87 weather observatories. Results demonstrate that increasing frequencies of weather types connected to easterly inflows support higher precipitation amounts over the study domain. Characterizing the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in Saudi Arabia is important for understanding potential impacts related to climate variability and also for developing circulation-based downscaling methods.

Conditioning temperature‐index model parameters on synoptic weather types for glacier melt simulations

AbstractTemperature‐index models are widely favoured as a pragmatic means of simulating glacier melt because of their generally good performance, computational simplicity and limited demands for in situ data. However, their coefficients are normally treated as temporally stationary, unrealistically assuming a constancy of the prevailing weather. We address this simplification by prescribing model coefficients as a function of synoptic weather type, in a procedure that utilizes reanalysis data and preserves the minimal data requirements of temperature‐index models. Using a cross‐validation procedure at Vestari Hagafellsjökull, Iceland, and Storglaciären, Sweden, we demonstrate that applying transient model coefficients, for three temperature‐index models, results in statistically significant increases in the skill with which melt is modelled: Median simulation improvements in the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 7.3 and 23.6% are achieved when hourly and daily melt totals are evaluated respectively. Our weather‐type modelling approach also yields insight to processes driving parameter variability, revealing dependence that is consistent with a priori considerations of the surface energy balance. We conclude that incorporating weather types into temperature‐index models holds promise for improving their performance, as well as enhancing understanding variability in coefficient values. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Association of weather and air pollution interactions on daily mortality in 12 Canadian cities.

It has been well established that both meteorological attributes and air pollution concentrations affect human health outcomes. We examined all cause nonaccident mortality relationships for 28 years (1981–2008) in relation to air pollution and synoptic weather type (encompassing air mass) data in 12 Canadian cities. This study first determines the likelihood of summertime extreme air pollution events within weather types using spatial synoptic classification. Second, it examines the modifying effect of weather types on the relative risk of mortality (RR) due to daily concentrations of air pollution (nitrogen dioxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter <2.5 μm). We assess both single- and two-pollutant interactions to determine dependent and independent pollutant effects using the relatively new time series technique of distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM). Results display dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical plus (MT+) weathers to result in a fourfold and twofold increased likelihood, respectively, of an extreme pollution event (top 5 % of pollution concentrations throughout the 28 years) occurring. We also demonstrate statistically significant effects of single-pollutant exposure on mortality (p < 0.05) to be dependent on summer weather type, where stronger results occur in dry moderate (fair weather) and DT or MT+ weather types. The overall average single-effect RR increases due to pollutant exposure within DT and MT+ weather types are 14.9 and 11.9 %, respectively. Adjusted exposures (two-way pollutant effect estimates) generally results in decreased RR estimates, indicating that the pollutants are not independent. Adjusting for ozone significantly lowers 67 % of the single-pollutant RR estimates and reduces model variability, which demonstrates that ozone significantly controls a portion of the mortality signal from the model. Our findings demonstrate the mortality risks of air pollution exposure to differ by weather type, with increased accuracy obtained when accounting for interactive effects through adjustment for dependent pollutants using a DLNM.

Low Level Clouds Analysis Relating to Synoptic Weather Types at Bratislava Airport

Low level clouds are one of the most important meteorological phenomena, which can significantly influence every flight phase. In general, clouds are visible indicators of physical processes realized in the atmosphere. They provide information about winds, stability, moisture content and travelling weather systems. Knowledge of cloud base is very important, particularly to a pilot on the descent to an airport flying through a cloud. Cloud base is given as the height of the base of the cloud above a particular level (usually ground level). For aerodrome reports and forecasts the base is the height above the official aerodrome level. For international airports, reports should refer to the approach area; for airports equipped with ILS reference should be to the site of the Middle Marker beacon. This paper deals with analysis of diurnal and annual variations of low level clouds at the Slovak international airport in Bratislava. The results are applicable in aviation weather forecasting and characterizing of dynamic climate of the region.

Detecting synoptic warming trends across the US Midwest and implications to human health and heat‐related mortality

ABSTRACTThis paper highlights and expands on the extensive work concerning extreme heat events, and the environmental and societal factors that affect human health. Selections of this work were presented originally in a Union of Concerned Scientists public report (‘Heat in the Heartland’). As humans respond concomitantly to a suite of meteorological variables, we accordingly aim to examine summertime frequencies and characteristics of select synoptic weather types in the Midwestern United States, particularly those associated with elevated health impacts risk. We analyse five major urban centres, paired with five nearby smaller cities, to investigate the potential relative differences due to urban form and size. In virtually all of these locales, the frequency of health‐debilitating hot weather types has increased in the six most recent decades, with many of these also demonstrating statistically significant upward trends in air and dew point temperatures. This is most prevalent for overnight temperatures, where the hottest weather types display increasing overnight temperatures in both large and small cities, thus causing the diurnal temperature ranges to decrease. Furthermore, the prevalence of three or more consecutive runs of these days is on the rise, with all five large cities experiencing a higher number of heat waves today than in the late 1940s. We emphasize the importance of city‐level efforts to assist in minimizing future climate‐related health risks. Finally, we demonstrate the increasing human mortality response in one select city (Detroit, MI), which is estimated without the presence of city‐level efforts, targeted interventions, adaptation strategies, or physiological acclimatization. This highlights the importance of providing accurate heat‐health warnings to the public, and provides essential understanding of the Midwest US region's summertime climate trends.

Risk assessment for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality due to air pollution and synoptic meteorology in 10 Canadian cities

Synoptic weather and ambient air quality synergistically influence human health. We report the relative risk of mortality from all non-accidental, respiratory-, and cardiovascular-related causes, associated with exposure to four air pollutants, by weather type and season, in 10 major Canadian cities for 1981 through 1999. We conducted this multi-city time-series study using Poisson generalized linear models stratified by season and each of six distinctive synoptic weather types. Statistically significant relationships of mortality due to short-term exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and ozone were found, with significant modifications of risk by weather type, season, and mortality cause. In total, 61% of the respiratory-related mortality relative risk estimates were significantly higher than for cardiovascular-related mortality. The combined effect of weather and air pollution is greatest when tropical-type weather is present in the spring or summer.

Weather types, runoff and sediment yield in a Mediterranean mountain landscape

ABSTRACTThe relationship between the synoptic weather types (WTs), runoff and sediments in a Mediterranean mountain landscape was analysed. The study was performed between 2005 and 2012 using one of the most complete and extensive daily databases of rainfall, runoff and sediment recorded in the Spanish Pyrenees, coupled with WTs defined from the National Meteorological Center/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NMC/NCAR) 40‐Year Reanalysis Project. The results show that the three wettest WTs accounted for 30% of rainy days and 46% of rainfall, but comprised only 13% of total daily records. To obtain a much more robust association between WTs and rainfall an analysis was carried out using a longer rainfall record (1989–2011). The analyses confirmed that the results obtained from the Araguás catchment are representative of a longer time span.The cyclonic, north‐westerly and westerly WTs play an important role in runoff generation, coinciding with the wettest WTs. Extreme floods are commonly associated also with south‐westerly and westerly airflows, whereas less flooding was generated under cyclonic circulations. Sediment transport was concentrated in 2.9% of total time mainly related to westerly WTs.Seasonal differences exist in WT frequency. In winter and spring north‐west and West are the most prominent WTs related to rainfall, water and sediment yield, although in spring cyclonic frequency was higher. During autumn north‐west and south‐west were the most frequent, but sediment yield was produced nearby under south‐west flow. In summer the WTs that produce sediment are north and west. A magnitude–frequency analysis shows the different behaviour of WTs according to their efficiency in producing runoff and sediment.A study with different monitored areas around the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean basin would be very valuable in providing information for hydrological and sediment behaviour under the current conditions of global climate change. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Synoptic Weather Types for the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica

Abstract Synoptic classifications over the Southern Ocean in the Ross Sea region of Antarctica (50°S–Antarctic coast, 150°E–90°W) have been derived from NCEP reanalysis data (1979–2011), producing a set of six synoptic types for the region. These types describe realistic synoptic conditions for the region and represent the moisture-bearing low pressure systems that circulate around Antarctica. The types are described as follows: low Bellingshausen/Amundsen (L-BA), low (L), zonal (Z), low Ross (L-R), ridge (R), and low Amundsen (L-A). Seasonal frequencies of the synoptic types reflect the seasonal zonal shift of the Amundsen Sea low (ASL) and also correlate well with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the southern annular mode (SAM). Variability in the occurrences of the synoptic types L-R and L-BA indicate a shifting of the position of the ASL farther east (west) toward (away from) the Antarctic Peninsula during La Niña (El Niño) and positive (negative) SAM conditions. A joint linear regression of the SOI and SAM indices show the strongest correlations with the types L-BA and L-R in the spring and quantifies the joint forcing effect of these climate cycles on synoptic variability in the region. As a demonstration of how synoptic classification provides links between large-scale atmospheric circulation and local climate parameters, the synoptic types are related to precipitation and temperature at Roosevelt Island, an ice core site on the Ross Ice Shelf (80°S, 160°W). The synoptic types provide quantification of distinct precipitation and temperature regimes at this site, which allows for more fundamental understanding of the precipitation source regions and transport pathways that drive the variability in snow and ice proxies.