Synoptic Environment Research Articles

Cause and Characteristics of Changes in Mesoscale Convective Systems within a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model

Abstract Changes in the frequency and intensity of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) are assessed using convection-permitting regional climate model simulations. We present a novel classification method that relates MCSs to the magnitude of their large-scale forcing environments to better understand the changing nature of MCSs across different forcing environments in a possible future climate scenario. Overall, the annual frequency, intensity, and amount of precipitation associated with MCSs are projected to increase for broad portions of the eastern conterminous United States (CONUS). Furthermore, changes in the characteristics of MCSs show larger, longer-lived, and faster MCSs particularly over the Midwest and Southeast. Seasonal examination of this response reveals a robust intensification of March–May (MAM) MCSs. The higher frequency of MAM MCSs are found to occur in weakly forced synoptic environments. Increased rainfall amounts are explained by an intensification of MCSs due to changing thermodynamics and enhanced lower-tropospheric moisture transport into the central CONUS by the North Atlantic Subtropical High. Differences in mid-latitude storm tracks are favorable towards the enhanced development of MCSs associated with strong baroclinic forcing within the Midwest and Northern Plains, but are only realized in the presence of strong changes in lower-tropospheric moisture transport. Overall, these results suggest a shift in the behavior of MAM MCSs that more closely corresponds to the behavior of June–August (JJA) MCSs in the historical climate. The increased occurrence of MCSs in weakly forced environments, particularly in MAM, deserves further investigation.

Examining Outer Band Supercell Environments in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using Ground-Based Radar Analyses

Abstract Supercells in landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often produce tornadoes within 50 km of the coastline. The prevalence of TC tornadoes near the coast is not explained by the synoptic environments of the TC, suggesting a mesoscale influence is likely. Past case studies point to thermodynamic contrasts between ocean and land or convergence along the coast as a possible mechanism for enhancing supercell mesocyclones and storm intensity. This study augments past work by examining the changes in the hurricane boundary layer over land in the context of vertical wind shear. Using ground-based single- and dual-Doppler radar analyses, we show that the reduction in the boundary layer wind results in an increase in vertical wind shear/storm-relative helicity inland of the coast. We also show that convergence along the coast may be impactful to supercells as they cross the coastal boundary. Finally, we briefly document the changes in mesocyclone vertical vorticity to assess how the environmental changes may impact individual supercells.

A Multi-Scale Analysis of the Extreme Precipitation in Southern Brazil in April/May 2024

Since 2020, southern Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul (RS) State has been affected by extreme precipitation episodes caused by different atmospheric systems. However, the most extreme was registered between the end of April and the beginning of May 2024. This extreme precipitation caused floods in most parts of the state, affecting 2,398,255 people and leading to 183 deaths and 27 missing persons. Due to the severity of this episode, we need to understand its drivers. In this context, the main objective of this study is a multi-scale analysis of the extreme precipitation between 26 April and 5 May, i.e., an analysis of the large-scale patterns of the atmosphere, a description of the synoptic environment, and an analysis of the mesoscale viewpoint (cloud-top features and lightning). Data from different sources (reanalysis, satellite, radar, and pluviometers) were used in this study, and different methods were applied. The National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) registered accumulated rainfall above 400 mm between 26 April and 5 May using 27 pluviometers located in the central-northern part of RS. The monthly volumes reached 667 mm and 803 mm, respectively, for April and May 2024, against a climatological average of 151 mm and 137 mm for these months. The maximum precipitation recorded was 300 mm in a single day on 30 April 2024. From a large-scale point of view, an anomalous heat source in the western Indian Ocean triggered a Rossby wave that contributed to a barotropic anticyclonic anomalous circulation over mid-southeastern Brazil. While the precipitant systems were inhibited over this region (the synoptic view), the anomalous stronger subtropical jet southward of the anticyclonic circulation caused uplift over RS State and, consequently, conditions leading to mesoscale convective system (MCS) development. In addition, the low-level jet east of the Andes transported warm and moist air to southern Brazil, which also interacted with two cold fronts that reached RS during the 10-day period, helping to establish the precipitation. Severe deep MCSs (with a cloud-top temperature lower than −80 °C) were responsible for a high lightning rate (above 10 flashes km−2 in 10 days) and accumulated precipitation (above 600 mm in 10 days), as observed by satellite measurements. This high volume of rainfall caused an increase in soil moisture, which exceeded a volume fraction of 0.55, making water infiltration into the soil difficult and, consequently, favoring flood occurrence.

The Influence of Atmospheric Bores on Nocturnal Convection Initiation in Weakly Forced Synoptic Environments

Abstract This study creates a composite sounding for nocturnal convection initiation (CI) events under weakly forced conditions and utilizes an idealized numerical simulation to assess the impact of atmospheric bores on these environments. Thirteen soundings were used to create this composite sounding. Common conditions associated with these weakly forced environments include a nocturnal low-level jet and a Brunt–Väisälä frequency of 0.011 s−1 above 900 hPa. The median lift needed for parcels to realize any convective instability is 490 m, the median convective available potential energy of these convectively unstable parcels is 992 J kg−1, and the median initial pressure of these parcels is 800 hPa. An idealized numerical simulation was utilized to examine the potential influence of bores on CI in an environment based on composite sounding. The characteristics of the simulated bore were representative of observed bores. The vertical velocities associated with this simulated bore were between 1 and 2 m s−1, and the net upward displacement of parcels was between 400 and 650 m. The vertical displacement of air parcels has two notable phases: lift by the bore itself and smaller-scale lift that occurs 100–150 km ahead of the bore passage. The prebore lift is between 50 and 200 m and appears to be related to low-frequency waves ahead of the bores. The lift with these waves was maximized in the low to midtroposphere between 1 and 4 km AGL, and this lift may play a role in assisting CI in these otherwise weakly forced environments.

A triggering mechanism of quasi-stationary convective bands in the vicinity of southwestern Japan during the summer season as deduced from moisture origins

To find a plausible initiation mechanism of quasi-stationary convective bands (QSCBs) that lead to disasters, we investigated an extreme heavy precipitation event in Kyushu, southwestern Japan, in the middle of August 2021, using a regional spectral model incorporated with isotopic tracers aided by a water-tagging method. In the synoptic environment, the horizontal pressure gradient at low levels between an eastward-migrating Baiu frontal depression (BFD) and the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) is intensified to the south of a synoptic-scale front. To the south of the front, QSCBs also lie from the East China Sea to inland Kyushu. We confirm that the merging of the Asian monsoon moisture and the NPSH moisture creates a deep moist layer reaching middle levels from the surface in the vicinity of the QSCBs, providing an extremely unstable condition. Although such an unstable condition is indispensable for the maintenance of the QSCBs, an initiation mechanism is required that accounts for why the QSCBs emerge around the oceanic region where the two primary moisture merges; that appears to be the Ekman pumping mechanism. The strong boundary layer inflow of the NPSH moisture origin enhances the convective instability to the south of the QSCBs. Since the horizontal pressure gradient is attenuated in the vicinity of the BFD's center, on the contrary, the boundary layer flow north of the QSCBs decelerates rapidly, giving rise to upwelling due to the Ekman convergence. The persistent upwelling estimated in this event can lift the air of the Ekman layer up to a few hundred meters in a few hours, allowing it to readily reach the level of free convection. It is reasonable to conjecture that the persistent upwelling triggers the release of enhanced convective instability, leading to the formation of QSCBs. Continuous merging of the two remote moisture origins under the pronounced horizontal pressure gradient will further contribute to the reinforcement of the QSCBs.

Synoptic Conditions and Lake-to-Lake Connections for Days with Lake Effect on All of the Great Lakes

Abstract An investigation of lake effect (LE) and the associated synoptic environment is presented for days when all five lakes in the Great Lakes (GL) region had LE bands [five-lake days (5LDs)]. The study utilized an expanded database of observed LE clouds over the GL during 25 cold seasons (October–March) from 1997/98 to 2021/22. LE bands occurred on 2870 days (64% of all cold-season days). Nearly a third of all LE bands occurred during 5LDs, although 5LDs consisted of just 17.1% of LE days. A majority of 5LDs (56.5%) had lake-to-lake (L2L) bands, and these days comprised 43.5% of all L2L occurrences. 5LDs occurred with a mean of 26.1 (SD = 6.2) days per cold season until 2008/09 and then decreased to a mean of 13.8 (SD = 5.5) days during subsequent cold seasons. January and February had the largest number of consecutive LE days in the GL with a mean of 5.7 and 5.4 days, respectively. As the number of consecutive LE days increases, both the number of 5LDs and the occurrence of consecutive 5LD increase. This translates to an increased potential of heavy snowfall impacts in multiple, localized areas of the GL for extended time periods. The mean composite synoptic pattern of 5LDs exhibited characteristics consistent with lake-aggregate disturbances and showed similarity to synoptic patterns favorable for LE over one or two of the GL found by previous studies. The results demonstrate that several additional areas of the GL are often experiencing LE bands when a localized area has active LE bands occurring.

Western Montana Snow Squall Climatology and Synoptic Patterns, 2000–2020

The rapid onset of whiteout conditions, from strong winds, blowing snow, and heavy snow, associated with snow squalls often results in hazardous travel conditions. Snow squalls bring pronounced impacts to the transportation sector, leading to accidents, fatalities, and significant travel delays. Given these impacts, historical frequencies, and the synoptic environments associated with snow squalls in western Montana were examined to develop forecast aides, primarily through synoptic pattern recognition, for meteorologists to identify and communicate snow squalls. A 20-yr climatology was constructed to identify events characterized by wind gusts ≥26 kt (30 mph) and visibility ≤0.8 km (0.5 mi). 74 snow squall events were identified from 2000 through 2020 across three ASOS sites: Missoula (KMSO), Kalispell (KGPI), and Butte (KBTM). The median duration of heavy (moderate) snow during snow squalls was 26 (34) min. A composite study utilizing these events was conducted using the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis. The composite study along with surface observations, revealed three distinct snow squall patterns and types: orographic snow bands, Pacific cold fronts, and Canadian arctic fronts.

Effects of Background Synoptic Environment in Controlling South China Sea Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Changes in Pseudo–Global Warming Experiments

Abstract Assessing how global warming affects tropical cyclones (TC) is immensely important for climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation. However, projected intensity and size change can vary greatly among different individual storms, even under the same forcing in pseudo–global warming (PGW) experiments. Here we hypothesize that these variations are related to the historical environment in which each TC was embedded. Twenty-five TCs in the South China Sea (SCS) region were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Their changes in the near (2036–65) and far future (2075–99) following the representative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) and 4.5 (RCP4.5) under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were investigated by the PGW technique. The mean changes in TC intensity and gale-force wind radius (R17) in the SCS were +6.4% and +1.5% for a 2°C warming, respectively. Multiple linear regression and stepwise regression analysis revealed that storm intensity variations were positively correlated with historical sea surface temperature and negatively with outer (i.e., outside the TC’s R17) atmospheric instability, while the R17 variations correlated positively with outer midtropospheric relative humidity (RH) and surface outer wind speed (OWS). Ertel potential vorticity (EPV) diagnostics further showed a moister SCS background can cause stronger diabatic heating and EPV production at the spiral rainbands under PGW, which increases R17. Additionally, stronger background absolute angular momentum (AAM) promoted stronger AAM influx, leading to larger R17. Implications were drawn to explain the uncertainties in projected TC intensity and size due to natural variability. Significance Statement Changes in the intensity and size of individual tropical cyclones in future climates are highly variable. This study aims to understand the environmental factors influencing these variations. We selected 25 storms that entered the South China Sea region and modeled them in both present and future climates. The mean intensity and size were projected to increase by 6.4% and 1.5% for a 2°C warming, respectively. We found that tropical cyclones embedded in historically warmer oceans and more stable atmospheres intensified more than the others, while historically wetter and windier environments promoted larger size growth. Our results suggest that certain tropical cyclones can exhibit a greater increase in intensity and size in a warmer climate under favorable environmental conditions.

Multi-scale numerical simulations of the synoptic environment, Diablo windstorm, and wildfire formation mechanisms for the Tubbs Fire (2017)

Multi-scale numerical simulations of the synoptic environment, Diablo windstorm, and wildfire formation mechanisms for the Tubbs Fire (2017)

Mesoscale Influences of Land Use, Topography, Antecedent Rainfall, and Atmospheric Conditions on Summertime Convective Storm Initiation under Weak Synoptic-Scale Forcing

Abstract Throughout the summer months in the Southeast United States (SEUS), the initiation of isolated convection (CI) can occur abundantly during the daytime with weak synoptic support (e.g., weak wind shear). Centered around this premise, a dual-summer, limited-area case study of CI events concerning both geographical and meteorological features was conducted. The goal of this study was to help explain SEUS summertime CI in weak synoptic environments, which can enhance CI predictability. Results show that spatial CI nonrandomness event patterns arise, with greater CI event density appearing over high elevation by midday. Later in the day, overall CI event counts subside with other mechanisms/factors emerging (e.g., urban heat island). Antecedent rainfall, instability, and moisture features are also higher on average where CI occurred. In a random forest feature importance analysis, elevation was the most important variable in dictating CI events in the early to midafternoon while antecedent rainfall and wind direction consistently rank highest in permutation importance. The results cumulatively allude to, albeit in a muted, nonsignificant statistical signal, and a degree of spatial clustering of CI event occurrences cross the study domain as a function of daytime heating and contributions of features to enhancing CI probabilities (e.g., differential heating and mesoscale thermal circulations). Significance Statement Widespread isolated thunderstorms in the Southeast United States summer season with weak synoptic support have been commonly observed. With forecasting these remaining a challenge, a dual-summer intercomparison of geographical/meteorological features with convective initiation events was conducted. Radar data with a minimum threshold for convective initiation detection (35 dBZ) were used. Spatial nonrandomness was discovered with greater event density appearing over higher elevation by midday. Features such as prior rainfall and atmospheric instability/moisture were higher on average where initiation occurred. In a feature importance analysis, elevation ranked higher in the early to midafternoon hours while antecedent rainfall and wind direction ranked highest overall in permutation importance. These results allude to the contribution of localized phenomena to the nonrandomness (e.g., mesoscale circulations).

The patterns, magnitude, and drivers of unprecedented 2022 mega-drought in the Yangtze River Basin, China

The Yangtze River Basin in China was hit by an unprecedented extreme drought in 2022. Such a record-breaking event is jointly driven by a few outlier factors and shows abnormal phenomena. The exceptionality of this drought event cannot be fully described by any individual indicator. Therefore, we performed this comprehensive study to highlight the exceptionality of 2022 Yangtze River Basin drought. We evaluated three drought characteristics: onset period (the time interval of moisture condition from normal to extreme), intensity, and affected area and their compound features. Additionally, historical climatology (1950–2022) and four past severe events are used as references. Lastly, we investigated the driving mechanisms of this event from synoptic perspective. Our results indicate the 2022 drought ranked as the most severe event in history. The recurrence interval of the 2022 Yangtze River drought is estimated to be 120–400 years by considering individual and combined drought characteristics. Behind the scenes, the synoptic environment triggered the abnormally high temperatures and abrupt alteration of precipitation, which is the main driver of the event. The 2022 Yangtze River drought is an archetype of an event characterized by both rapid intensification over time and space, which is indicative for drought monitoring and early warning in a warming climate.

Assessment of simulations of a polar low with the Canadian Regional Climate Model.

Polar lows (PLs), which are intense maritime polar mesoscale cyclones, are associated with severe weather conditions. Due to their small size and rapid development, PL forecasting remains a challenge. Convection-permitting models are adequate to forecast PLs since, compared to coarser models, they provide a better representation of convection as well as surface and near-surface processes. A PL that formed over the Norwegian Sea on 25 March 2019 was simulated using the convection-permitting Canadian Regional Climate Model version 6 (CRCM6/GEM4, using a grid mesh of 2.5 km) driven by the reanalysis ERA5. The objectives of this study were to quantify the impact of the initial conditions on the simulation of the PL, and to assess the skill of the CRCM6/GEM4 at reproducing the PL. The results show that the skill of the CRCM6/GEM4 at reproducing the PL strongly depends on the initial conditions. Although in all simulations the synoptic environment is favourable for PL development, with a strong low-level temperature gradient and an upper-level through, only the low-level atmospheric fields of three of the simulations lead to PL development through baroclinic instability. The two simulations that best captured the PL represent a PL deeper than the observed one, and they show higher temperature mean bias compared to the other simulations, indicating that the ocean surface fluxes may be too strong. In general, ERA5 has more skill than the simulations at reproducing the observed PL, but the CRCM6/GEM4 simulation with initialisation time closer to the genesis time of the PL reproduces quite well small scale features as low-level baroclinic instability during the PL development phase.

A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos: Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts

Abstract Over the course of the century, much research has been done to understand how derechos form, what environments support derecho development, and how forecasts of derechos can be improved. Following the definition, climatology, and societal impacts of derechos in Part I of this manuscript, Part II offers a thorough review on the parent MCS structures that produce derechos, which synoptic setups support derecho-producing MCSs, and the successes and failures of forecasting derechos. This manuscript reviews the 3D structure of MCSs that support derecho development, as well as both the strongly and weakly forced synoptic environments where derechos frequently occur. In addition, successes and failures common among most derecho numerical forecast studies are discussed to suggest where the greatest improvements in derecho forecasting may be made.

Assessing Variations in the Predictive Skill of Ensemble Snowband Forecasts with Object-Oriented Verification and Self-Organizing Maps

Abstract We used object-oriented verification and self-organizing maps (SOMs) to identify patterns in environmental parameters correlating with mesoscale snowband predictive skill by the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system between 2017 and 2022. First, HREF snowband forecasts for 305 banding events were verified based on similarities between forecast and observed feature properties. HREF members performed comparably, demonstrating large positional errors, but the non-time-lagged High-Resolution Rapid Refresh member demonstrated the greatest overall skill. Observed banding events were clustered by 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, frontogenesis, and saturation equivalent potential vorticity from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 using SOMs. Clusters reaffirmed the presence of midlevel frontogenesis, ascent, and reduced stability in most banding cases, and the predominant synoptic environments conducive to band development. Clusters were compared to determine whether patterns in the variables were correlated with predictive skill. Strength of upward motion was correlated with skill, with the strongest upward motion cases verifying 10% better than the weakest upward motion cases due to smaller positional error. Additionally, events with a single region of strong upward motion verified better than events with disorganized, but comparably intense, upward motion. The magnitude of frontogenesis was uncorrelated with skill, but events with more upright frontogenesis collocated with the band centroid were better predicted than events with shallower slopes and low-level frontogenesis displaced toward warmer air. The skill variance associated with different vertical motion magnitudes could assist forecasters in modulating forecast confidence, while the most common types of errors documented here may be beneficial to model developers in refining HREF member snowfall forecasts. Significance Statement High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models generally have limited predictive skill for mesoscale snowband forecasts. Even so, some snowbands are forecast by NWP models with much greater skill than others. In this work, we apply artificial intelligence to group snowband events based on atmospheric conditions and then determine whether different groups are easier or harder for models to predict. Identification of these groups could help forecasters know when to trust or be skeptical of NWP output and help developers improve snowband formation processes in NWP models.

A Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Low-Level Jets and Atmospheric Rivers in the Central United States

Abstract We present a comparative analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs) in the central United States during April–September 1901–2010 using ECMWF’s Coupled Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (CERA-20C). The analysis is motivated by a perceived need to highlight overlap and synergistic opportunities between traditionally disconnected AR and GPLLJ research. First, using the Guan–Walliser integrated vapor transport (IVT)-based AR classification and Bonner–Whiteman-based GPLLJ classification, we identify days with either an AR and/or GPLLJ spanning 15% of the central United States. These days are grouped into five event samples: 1) all GPLLJ, 2) AR GPLLJ, 3) non-AR GPLLJ, 4) AR non-GPLLJ, and 5) all AR. Then, we quantify differences in the frequency, seasonality, synoptic environment, and extreme weather impacts corresponding to each event sample. Over the twentieth century, April–September AR frequency remained constant whereas GPLLJ frequency significantly decreased. Of GPLLJ days, 36% are associated with a coincident AR. Relative to ARs that are equally probable from April–September, GPLLJs exhibit distinct seasonality, with peak occurrence in July. A 500-hPa geopotential height comparison shows a persistent ridge over the central United States for non-AR GPLLJ days, whereas on AR GPLLJ days, a trough-and-ridge pattern is present over western to eastern CONUS. AR GPLLJ days have 34% greater 850-hPa windspeeds, 53% greater IVT, and 72% greater 24-h precipitation accumulation than non-AR GPLLJ days. In terms of 95th-percentile 850-hPa wind speed, IVT, and 24-h precipitation, that of AR GPLLJs is 25%, 45%, and 23% greater than non-AR GPLLJs, respectively.

Five-Year Climatology and Composite Study of Precipitation Bands Associated with Extratropical Cyclones over the British Isles

Abstract A 5-yr climatology and composite study of precipitation bands associated with extratropical cyclones over the British Isles from April 2017 to March 2022 is constructed. A total of 249 single bands were manually identified from radar network mosaics in association with 167 cyclones identified from surface maps. More bands formed over water near the coast than over inland areas, and most had a meridional orientation. The average lengths of bands at the times of formation and maximum length were 290 and 460 km, respectively; only 20% of bands reached a maximum length exceeding 600 km. The number of bands decreased with increasing duration, with 31% of bands lasting for 2–3 h, with bands lasting more than 10 h uncommon. The bands were classified into six categories, with occluded-frontal bands (19 yr−1), warm-frontal bands (11 yr−1), and cold-frontal bands (10 yr−1) being the most frequent. Occluded-frontal and warm-frontal bands commonly occurred west of Scotland and in the east quadrant relative to their parent cyclones. In contrast, cold-frontal bands commonly occurred southwest of Great Britain and in the south quadrant relative to their parent cyclones. Composites for northwest–southeast occluded-frontal and warm-frontal bands west of Scotland, and southwest–northeast cold-frontal bands southwest of Great Britain, show the different synoptic environments that favor bands. The low-level jet transports moisture into the band and is similar to the location and scale of the composite bands, similar to that of an atmospheric river. These results are compared to previous studies on bands from the United States. Significance Statement Precipitation bands are lines of heavy precipitation as seen on weather radar. Most studies of bands in extratropical cyclones have occurred in the United States. We examine 5 years of bands in extratropical cyclones over the British Isles to better understand their characteristics. Bands form in preferred geographic regions: offshore of the west coasts of Scotland, Wales, and southwest England. The most common bands are associated with occluded fronts (37% of all bands). The average scale of the bands is associated with the average scale of wind maxima 1–2 km above ground. These results provide a better understanding of the typical characteristics and conditions under which bands form and their geographical variability compared to the United States.

Characterization of the 2012 and 2013 Metro Manila “Enhanced Habagat” Heavy Rainfall Events

The strong southwest monsoon episodes in August 2012 and 2013, locally referred to as the “Enhanced Habagat ” 2012 and 2013, respectively, resulted in rainfall that exceeded the monthly mean rainfall of the affected regions along western Luzon, including Metro Manila. The prolonged heavy rainfall events were the result of tropical cyclone enhancement of the monsoon winds. The synoptic environment in the two events was characterized by the deepening of the Asian monsoon trough depicted by the zonally-oriented and eastward-extended 1000 hPa isobar. The deep troughs were caused each year by a combination of tropical cyclones located to the northeast of the Philippines – Typhoon Haikui in 2012 and Severe Tropical Storm Trami in 2013, and remnant tropical cyclones in the northern South China Sea region that formed several days prior to the enhanced Habagat episodes. The monsoon trough induced a low-level westerly jet in the South China Sea toward the western Luzon region that transported a narrow stream of moisture-laden air mass to Metro Manila and surrounding areas. Consequently, heavy precipitation ensued. Analysis showed the remnant lows are as important as the enhancing tropical cyclones Haikui and Trami in inducing the westerly jets. Removal of the enhancing tropical cyclones in numerical model simulations still showed a relatively deep monsoon trough that led to heavy rainfall along western Luzon. In addition, the intrusion of low potential vorticity area to the eastern and northern flanks of the tropical cyclones facilitated the strengthening of the steering ridge that resulted in their westward and slow translational motion, making the events last for several days and exacerbating the impacts. Furthermore, the Madden-Julian Oscillation possibly serves as a precursor to heavy rainfall events. Compounded with a populous megacity, understanding the mechanisms that lead to these extreme hazards is vital to future forecasting and disaster risk management of similar events.

Structural characteristics of typhoons Jebi (2018), Faxai (2019), and Hagibis (2019)

In recent years, Japan has experienced substantial damage from three intense typhoons: Jebi (2018), Faxai (2019), and Hagibis (2019). In this study, we provide a detailed description of the structure and synoptic environments of these typhoons, with particular focus on their frontal nature, temporal evolutions of the phase-space parameters, and the synoptic environments during their lifecycles. All three typhoons underwent phase changes at some point during their lifecycle before transitioning into extratropical cyclones. We found that their maximum intensities, as indicated by their maximum wind speed and minimum central pressure, occurred shortly after they transitioned from a cold-core to a warm-core structure. These typhoons displayed strong low-level convergence and upper-level divergence, along with favorable environmental conditions for strong convection before transitioning to extratropical cyclones. Our analysis suggests that the strong Typhoons Jebi and Hagibis had asymmetric structures with either deep warm or deep cold cores, whereas the relatively weak Typhoon Faxai had a symmetric deep warm core structure. Overall, our study provides valuable insights into the characteristics of intense typhoons and their transition to extratropical cyclones.

Implementation of Prognostic Cloud Ice Number Concentrations for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double‐Moment 6‐Class (WDM6) Microphysics Scheme

AbstractThe ice microphysical processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double‐Moment 6‐class (WDM6) microphysics scheme are treated as a single‐moment approach, in which the number concentration of cloud ice is diagnosed based on its mixing ratio. This study develops the revised WDM6 scheme through the implementation of prognostic cloud ice number concentrations. The effect of the prognostic number concentration on the simulated precipitation is verified through simulations of short‐term winter snowfall cases during International Collaborative Experiments for the Pyeongchang 2018 Olympics and Paralympics (ICE‐POP 2018) winter games and a 1‐month regional climate case during the summer season, July 2009. For all cases, the revised WDM6 simulates higher cloud ice number concentrations and lower cloud ice mixing ratios than the original WDM6. The microphysics budget analysis for the snowfall cases shows that the inefficient deposition and vapor freezing nucleation processes of cloud ice reduce the available cloud ice mixing ratio. Consequently, the accretion processes with cloud ice decrease and the deposition into snow increases due to the surplus water vapor. The revised WDM6 alleviates the positive bias of surface precipitation consisting of snow over the region where the original WDM6 simulates excessive precipitation, compared to the observed data. For the regional climate case, the reduced cloud ice amount strengthens the Western North Pacific high‐pressure system by allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface, leading to simulated precipitation bands and synoptic environments that are more comparable with the observed data.

Potential Weakening of the June 2012 North American Derecho Under Future Warming Conditions

AbstractDerechos are widespread and long‐lived straight‐line windstorms associated with fast‐moving mesoscale convective systems that cause severe life and property loss. This study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection‐permitting regional model ensemble simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo‐global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5‐8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2‐hr delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areas. The derecho shrinkage is attributed to lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC. By consuming energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho.