Sustainable Urban Land Research Articles

Mapping Tomorrow’s Cities: GeoAI Strategies for Sustainable Urban Planning and Land Use Optimization

Mapping Tomorrow’s Cities: GeoAI Strategies for Sustainable Urban Planning and Land Use Optimization

Analyzing Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics Using Geospatial Approaches: A Case Study of District Lahore, Pakistan

The present study focuses on the city of Lahore due to the substantial impacts of LULC on land-atmosphereclimatic interactions. This study aims to find and interpret the variations in land use patterns in Lahore during 20 years(2003, 2013, and 2023) with a ten-year interval. For in-depth analysis, four different classes- built-up, barren land,vegetation, and water bodies were determined. Several pre- and post-processing procedures were carefully carried outto improve the accuracy of the results after Landsat 7, Landsat 8, and Sentinel 2 satellite imageries had been utilized.The methodology included supervised classification using the maximum likelihood algorithm along with changedetection to evaluate and interpret the LULC alterations. The extent of change is demonstrated by quantitative datashowing that the built-up area increased from 308.6491261 sq. km in 2003 to 336.9702759 sq. km in 2023. On theother hand, there was a drop of 1099.13587 sq. km in barren land and a decrease of 10.47416794 sq. km in waterbodies. Despite a notable rise between 2003 and 2013, vegetation cover decreased by 328.4721624 sq. km by 2023.This study offers important insights for sustainable urban development and land management policy in addition tofurthering our understanding of the dynamics of land use and land cover in Lahore

Investigating the mechanisms of sustainable urban land renewal: A perspective of spatial development rights

Urban renewal, as an important means of promoting sustainable urbanization in the stock era, is essentially a process of redistributing land appreciation benefits caused by spatial development rights. However, current literature mostly analyzes the traditional two-dimensional renewal model from the perspective of market mechanisms, which leads to the inability of urban land renewal mechanisms to adapt to sustainable urban development. Therefore, taking Shenzhen as an example, our study aims to understand the spatial mechanism of urban land renewal from a three-dimensional perspective of spatial development rights. Using geographically weighted regression and two-stage least squares regression, we found that the objective of value analysis has shifted from the common minimum unit of land to local space. Moreover, affected by the surrounding environment and various supporting public service facilities, the existence of spatial heterogeneity leads to significant differences in the value of the different functional space within same geographical ranges. The influence intensity of economy, society, and environment shows a decreasing pattern in space from the center of the region to the outer circle of the region. We not only construct a sustainable urban land renewal framework based on three-dimensional spatial property rights, but also distinguish the mechanisms and endogenous issues for different functional spaces. Our study could make a great difference in adjustment of urban land development rights and value acquisition.

Distribution and Transformation of Soil Phosphorus Forms under Different Land Use Patterns in an Urban Area of the Lower Yangtze River Basin, South China

Understanding the phosphorus (P) cycle is essential for preventing soil P loss, improving environmental quality, and promoting sustainable agriculture, particularly in urban areas. In this study, a representative city of the lower Yangtze River Basin, Nanchang, was chosen to systematically explore the distribution and transformation of soil P forms, which were extracted by an improved SEDEX method and measured by a standard phosphorus–molybdenum blue method under three land use patterns. The contents of soil P forms were the highest in the dryland and the lowest in the paddy field, with total P accumulation in the upper wasteland and paddy field soils but in the lower dryland soil. The pH value and grain size affected soil P form distributions to a variable extent from one land use pattern to another. The transformation of soil P forms was weak in the wasteland. It was first found that some detrital limestone P (De-P) was transformed into exchangeable P (Ex-P) in the paddy field with authigenic calcium-bound phosphorus (Au-P) and organic phosphorus (OP) transformation, and the transformation between Ex-P and iron-bound phosphorus (Fe-P), Au-P, and between Au-P and OP existed in the dryland. Land use pattern was the dominant driver for the P distribution and transformation of soil P. This study highlights the critical role of land use patterns in affecting the P cycle of soils in urban areas and the importance of sustainable urban land management.

Comparative life-cycle sustainability assessment of centralized and decentralized remediation strategies at the city level

Remediation of contaminated soil at industrial sites has become a challenge and an opportunity for sustainable urban land use, considering the substantial secondary impacts resulting from remediation activities. The design of soil remediation strategies for multi-site remediation from a regional perspective is of great significance for cities with a large number of brownfields. Centralized and decentralized facilities have been studied in different environmental fields, yet limited research has focused on centralized soil remediation, specifically the treatment of contaminated soil from different sites through the construction of shared soil treatment facilities. This study proposes a framework for comparing centralized and decentralized strategies for contaminated soil remediation based on the integration of life-cycle sustainability assessment and multi-objective optimization. With Zhuzhou, an industrial city in China, serving as an example, results show that after optimization, the centralized scenario can reduce total environmental impacts by 25 %–41 %. In addition, the centralized scenario can reduce economic costs by 27 %–39 %, saving up to 176 million USD. The advantages of the centralized soil remediation strategy include: (1) increased use of soil washing, (2) reduced use of off-site disposal, and (3) reduced construction and efficient utilization of soil treatment facilities. In conclusion, the centralized strategy is relatively suitable for cities or areas with a large number of medium or small-sized contaminated sites. The built framework can quantitatively evaluate multiple sites soil remediation at both the city and individual site level, allowing for a straightforward and objective comparison with the optimal remediation design.

The Principles of Land Use in The Morphological Dimension of Spatial Management in An Urban Area of The Province of South Sulawesi (Socio-Legal Review)

Purpose: This study aims to analyze and explain the principles of land use within the dimensions of spatial morphology in urban development patterns in South Sulawesi Province and their relevance to spatial strategy. It also aims to analyze and explain factors affecting urban development patterns in the province concerning spatial strategy. Theoretical framework: Sustainable urban land use emphasizes balancing economic growth, environmental preservation, and social equity. It includes long-term resource sustainability, biodiversity conservation, and climate-resilient communities. Effective urban planning should prioritize inclusivity, community involvement, and sustainable transportation for accessible and functional cities. Regional development theory highlights coordinated policies for sustainable economic growth, environmental protection, and social well-being, including diversifying the local economy and enhancing education and healthcare access. Holistic regional development integrates economic, environmental, and social factors, laying the groundwork for responsible land use. Methods: The research was conducted in five Regency/cities in South Sulawesi: Makassar, Gowa, Pangkaje'ne and Islands, Soppeng, and Palopo, with 80 respondents selected through purposive sampling. The study employed descriptive analysis with qualitative and quantitative approaches. Findings: The findings conclude that the principles of land use in South Sulawesi are less than optimally used as guidelines for urban development despite being incorporated into the spatial planning of the Province and Regency/Cities. Practical implications: The implementation of urban development patterns is suboptimal in coordination with urban spatial plans of the Province and Districts. Legal factors, facilities, legal awareness, and the environment positively influence development patterns, while coordination has a negative impact. Originality/Value: The study recommends revising or issuing spatial planning regulations following Law No. 26 of 2007. Consistent supervision, control, and sanctioning by local governments in urban development in South Sulawesi. Enhancement of facilities for the supervision and control of spatial planning. Increasing public legal awareness through the socialization of spatial arrangement regulations. Inter-agency coordination in urban development through a One-Stop Service Office for optimal access to land use permission and spatial planning following the spatial plans of the Regency/Cities.

Analysis of the Variability in Land Surface Temperature due to Land Use/Land Cover Change for a Sustainable Urban Planning

Abstract In modern days, a sustainable urban planning system requires a balance of vegetation, water, and settlement. The proportions of these surface features directly influence the land surface temperature (LST) in an urban area. LST primarily depends on the emittance of land use/land cover (LULC) categories. In an urban area, changes in LULC categories as well as local warming are the prime regulators of LST change. The study analyses the LULC change and its impact on LST in Imphal City, India. Landsat satellite data for the summer season and winter seasons for 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 have been used in this study. Results show that the mean LST of the study area increased at >1% rate/decade. The green area and water area decreased the LST values whereas the built-up area and fallow lands increased the LST values. The study indicates the consequences of proper land conversion to regulate the LST change. Moreover, the influence of population on LST is also determined. The continuous rising trend of population is a positive factor of increasing LST. The study may help the town and country planners to generate sustainable urban land.

Ecological monitoring of urban thermal field variance index and determining the surface urban heat island effects in Lahore, Pakistan.

Lahore is the second major metropolitan city in Pakistan in terms of urban population and built-up area, making the city a more ideal place to form the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effects. In the last two decades, the considerable land-use conversion from a natural surface (vegetation) and permeable (waterbody) surface into an impervious (built-up area) surfacehas lead to an increase in land surface temperature (LST) in Lahore. The human thermal comfort (HTC) of the residents is alsoimpacted by the higher LST. The present study uses multi-temporal Landsat (5&8) satellite imageries to examine the ecological and thermal conditions of Lahore between 2000 and 2020. The ecological and thermal conditions of Lahore are assessed by calculating the urban heat islands and UTFVI (urban thermal field variance index), based on LST data which quantitatively assessed the UHI effect and the quality of human life. The outcomes establish that the urban built-up area has increased by 18%, while urban vegetation, vacant land, and waterbody decreased by 13%, 4%, and 0.04%, respectively. In the last 20 years, the mean LST of the study region has risen by about 3.67 °C. The UHI intensity map shows intensification and a rise in surface temperature variation from 4.5 °C (2000) to 5.9 °C (2020). Furthermore, the finding shows that the ecological and thermal conditions are worse in construction sites, transition zones, and urban areasin comparison to nearby rural areas. The lower UTFVI was observed in dense vegetation cover areas while a hot spot of higher UTFVI was predominantly observed in the areas of transition zones and built-up area expansion. Those areas with higher hot spots are more vulnerable to the urban heat island effect. The main conclusions of this study are essential for educating city officials and urban planners in developing a sustainable urban land development plan to reduce urban heat island effects by investing in open green spaces for urban areas of cities.

Higher diversity, denser stands and greater biomass in peri-urban forests than in adjacent agroforestry systems in Western Burkina Faso: implications for urban sustainability.

Urban and peri-urban forests greatly contribute to the well-being of urban dwellers in West Africa. However, increasing urban densification and spatial expansion negatively affect the functioning of urban ecosystems. Therefore, highlighting the negative impacts of land use change on the ecological attributes of urban landscapes is fundamental for sustainable urban planning. This study aimed to assess the impacts of land use on woody species diversity, structure and carbon storage in peri-urban areas in Burkina Faso. Forest inventories were conducted in 167 plots across two peri-urban forests and their adjacent agroforestry systems. We found a total diversity of 91 woody species representing 69 genera and 26 families. Diversity indices were significantly higher (p-value < 0.0001) in the peri-urban forests than in the agroforestry systems, highlighting a negative impacts of land use on tree diversity. Besides, peri-urban forests had significantly lower tree diameter (15.749 ± 9.194cm), but higher basal area (5.030 ± 4.407 m2. ha-1) and denser stands (317.308 ± 307.845 ind. ha-1) compared to the agroforestry systems. Tree aboveground biomass was significantly higher (p-value < 0.0001) in the peri-urban forests (18.198 ± 23.870Mg. ha-1) than in the agroforestry systems (7.821 ± 6.544Mg. ha-1). Multivariate analyses revealed that denser stands hold higher diversity in peri-urban areas, and that stand basal area mostly drives carbon storage than tree density and diversity. These findings highlight the potential of peri-urban forests to conserve plant biodiversity and mitigate climate change. The study advocates for a sustainable urban land use and planning.

Urban land policy and urban land use efficiency: An analysis based on remote sensing and institutional credibility thesis

Ethiopia has an urban land lease policy in place to facilitate the transfer of land for residential, commercial and industrial purposes. Because of the lease policy, many cities have experienced significant expansion through massive conversion of agricultural land. Although the lease policy has been in place for nearly three decades, little is known about its effectiveness in promoting sustainable urban land use. This paper examines the effects of the lease policies on urban land use efficiency (ULUE). Building on the institutional credibility thesis, this paper investigated the performance of land institutions using the urban land use efficiency approach. Remote sensing data was used to investigate urban land use efficiency through spatiotemporal analysis of land use change. Analysis of satellite imagery was performed using ArcGIS. Moreover, quantitative and qualitative data from secondary sources were studied. The study findings show that in almost all study areas, urban land use efficiency is low, which is mainly reflected in the forms of land hoarding, land banking, illegal land grabbing, informal settlement, land use fragmentation and urban sprawl. A significant portion of the land transferred for various urban uses has remained vacant or underutilised for years, in direct violation of the provisions of the lease policy. This means that the lease policy has hardly been enforced to ensure efficient urban land utilization. This demonstrates the ineffectiveness (dysfunctionality) of the existing land institutions. It is concluded that some elements of the lease policy have evolved into an empty institution, i.e., a symbolic institutional arrangement that is largely ignored by socioeconomic and political actors.

How Does New Energy Demonstration City Policy Promote Urban Land Use Efficiency in China? The Mediating Effect of Industrial Structure

As an effective measure to solve the dilemma of urban energy consumption and economic development, the new energy demonstration city (NEDC) policy in China could greatly promote the development of the new energy industry and urban economy. This study aims to explore how the NEDC policy effectively promotes the growth of urban land use efficiency (ULUE), an essential indicator of economic development, through the urban industrial structure. Based on the panel data of 285 Chinese cities during 2003–2019, this study took the NEDC policy as a quasi-natural experiment and employed the PSM-DID method and the mediating effect model to objectively evaluate its policy effects. We found that the NEDC policy could significantly promote the growth of the ULUE. Specifically, the ULUE has been significantly improved by 17.0%. The NEDC policy could also promote the ULUE indirectly through the mediating effect of industrial structure advancement (ISA), but the mediating effect of industrial structure rationalization (ISR) was not significant. Furthermore, the promotional effect of the NEDC policy on the ULUE has regional heterogeneity. Compared with eastern cities and high-innovation cities, central and western cities and medium-innovation and low-innovation cities can obtain much higher promotion effects. This study may provide some policy inspiration for policymakers to support low-corban and sustainable economic development and urban land use.

Intensity Analysis for Urban Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics Characterization of Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso in Burkina Faso

Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso remain the two major urban centers in Burkina Faso with an increasing trend in human footprint. The research aimed at analyzing the Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) dynamics in the two cities between 2003 and 2021 using intensity analysis, which decomposes LULC changes into interval, category and transition levels. The satellite data used for this research were composed of surface reflectance imagery from Landsat 5, Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 acquired from the Google Earth Engine Data Catalogue. The Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Gradient Tree Boost algorithms were employed to run supervised image classifications for four selected years including 2003, 2009, 2015 and 2021. The results showed that the landscape is changing in both cities due to rapid urbanization. Ouagadougou experienced more rapid changes than Bobo-Dioulasso, with a maximum annual change intensity of 3.61% recorded between 2015 and 2021 against 2.22% in Bobo-Dioulasso for the period 2009–2015. The transition of change was mainly towards built-up areas, which gain targeted bare and agricultural lands in both cities. This situation has led to a 78.12% increase of built-up surfaces in Ouagadougou, while 42.24% of agricultural land area was lost. However, in Bobo-Dioulasso, the built class has increased far more by 140.67%, and the agricultural land areas experienced a gain of 1.38% compared with the 2003 baseline. The study demonstrates that the human footprint is increasing in both cities making the inhabitants vulnerable to environmental threats such as flooding and the effect of an Urban Heat Island, which is information that could serve as guide for sustainable urban land use planning.

Urban land uses shape soil microbial abundance and diversity

Soil microbial biodiversity provides many useful services in cities. However, the ecology of microbial communities in urban soils remains poorly documented, and studies are required to better predict the impact of urban land use. We characterized microbial communities (archea/bacteria and fungi) in urban soils in Dijon (Burgundy, France). Three main land uses were considered – public leisure, traffic, and urban agriculture – sub-categorized in sub-land uses according to urban indexes and management practices. Microbial biomass and diversity were determined by quantifying and high-throughput sequencing of soil DNA. Variation partitioning analysis was used to rank soil physicochemical characteristics and land uses according to their relative contribution to the variation of soil microbial communities. Urban soils in Dijon harbored high levels of microbial biomass and diversity that varied according to land uses. Microbial biomass was 1.8 times higher in public leisure and traffic sites than in urban agriculture sites. Fungal richness increased by 25 % in urban agriculture soils, and bacterial richness was lower (by 20 %) in public leisure soils. Partitioning models explained 25.7 %, 46.2 % and 75.6 % of the variance of fungal richness, bacterial richness and microbial biomass, respectively. The organic carbon content and the C/N ratio were the best predictors of microbial biomass, whereas soil bacterial diversity was mainly explained by soil texture and land use. Neither metal trace elements nor polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons contents explained variations of microbial communities, probably due to their very low concentration in the soils. The microbial composition results highlighted that leisure sites represented a stabilized habitat favoring specialized microbial groups and microbial plant symbionts, as opposed to urban agriculture sites that stimulated opportunistic populations able to face the impact of agricultural practices. Altogether, our results provide evidence that there is scope for urban planners to drive soil microbial diversity through sustainable urban land use and associated management practices.

Determinant Factors of Sustainable Urban Land Management System in Tigrai and Amhara Regions, Ethiopia

The purpose of the study was to assess the determinant factors of sustainable urban land management in the Tigray and Amhara regions of Ethiopia. A mixed methods approach with a concurrent nested strategy was employed. A total of 353 questionnaires were collected from implementers and users of the urban land management system; FGDs 8 with implementers and interviews with 24 experts, middle, and top managers were conducted. Quantitative data were analyzed and presented using independent sample t-test, logisticand multiple regressions, while qualitative data were analyzed using a thematic analysis approach. The result indicated that urban land management remains using outdated and traditional systems. People in the Amhara region were more cooperative in the urban land management system than those in Tigray. Nonetheless, the magnitude of the differences in the means (mean difference = -0.36, 95% CI: -0.63 to -0.09) was very small (eta squared = -.029). The main factors of urban land management are lack of commitment, lack of humanresources, political influence, maladministration and instability of rules. These factors are hampering the effective management of urban land in both regions. Hence, people are not satisfied with the service of urban land management. Thus, the regional governments need to reconsider the policy, employ an automated system, and work against the identified factors.

Sustainable Urban Agricultural Land Control towards Determining Perpetual Agricultural Land (PAL) in Tangerang City

Tangerang City is one of the Indonesian capital city buffer areas, DKI Jakarta. Most common impact of being a buffer city is land conversion. It is an inevitable impact to support new growth and development business. Land conversion from agricultural become non– non-agricultural could affect food security in terms of supply and demand. Agricultural land area decreases by 38.96 Ha, from 1.113,34 Ha (2018) to 1.076,65 Ha (2019). To ensure the fulfillment of food needs, Land conversion can be limited by establishing a Perpetual Agricultural Land (PAL) policy. This study aimed to analyze the dynamics of land use in Tangerang City in 2014 – 2020 as consideration for determining the location of PAL. This study uses a quantitative approach with time series Landsat–8 image data in 2014, 2017, and 2020 obtained from LAPAN Sensory Catalog. In addition, secondary data statistics about land use from the National Statistic Bureau (BPS) also used to be considered. Data analysis in this study was carried out using quantitative descriptive statistics. The results show that the area of built–up land in Tangerang City grow about 8,07 % from 2017 to 2020. PAL development will be following current needs but still pay attention to the quantity and quality of future needs. The development of this PAL is pursued following the principle of sustainability. It can be realized by limiting the use of chemical fertilizers, developing agro–ecosystems, reusing irrigation water, and so on. Moreover, if the development of PAL gets more attention from the government, then agricultural productivity will impact in increasing the farmer’s welfare.

A modelling approach with geographically weighted regression methods for determining geographic variation and influencing factors in housing price: A case in Istanbul

Determining real estate market dynamics has become an important issue in the city economy for achieving sustainable urban land management and investment planning. This study aims to determine the potential influencing factors of housing prices through applying global regression models including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) and to examine their geographic variation by local regression approaches such as Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). Pendik district of Istanbul (Turkey) was selected as study area. For these purposes, a case geodatabase was created with twenty-eight attributes: structural, geographic, and neighbourhood variables. Initially, nine significant variables used as input in the other models were selected with a stepwise OLS approach. The modelling results suggested that local models achieve better performance in comparison to global models. Furthermore, local model factor coefficients and local R2 values were mapped for nine variables. Geographic variations of these variables with regards to housing price were analysed for GWR and MGWR models. This study provides a comprehensive methodology for the real estate market and city authorities to understand the geographic variations of factors affecting the real estate market in urban geography.

Impacts of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem services in ecologically fragile regions

High-density human activities have rapidly changed the pattern of urban land use/land cover (LULC), affecting the supply of urban ecosystem services (ESs). This poses a challenge to the balance of urban development and ecological protection, which may be more serious in ecologically fragile regions. This study identified key LULC change (LULCC) impacts on ESs in Ordos, an ecologically fragile region in Northwest China. The urbanization process of Ordos will continue in 2030 under the business-as-usual scenario due to its strategic positioning in the National Energy Base of China. The future LULC simulation results showed that developed land in eastern Ordos will continue to expand in 2030, and more forest and grassland will appear in western Ordos as a result of ecological restoration. The results of the InVEST model in calculating four important ESs showed that the ES supply in the densely populated areas (eastern Ordos) has declined, and more attention must be given to natural vegetation protection in the urbanization process. Although carbon storage in the western region has increased due to afforestation, this also reduces the water yield supply, which may exacerbate the water shortage in Ordos. Supported by this framework, more sustainable urban land use management can be undertaken to balance the conflict between ecological protection and urbanization. This will contribute to regional ecological health and sustainable urban development.

Towards Sustainable, Resilient and Adaptive Urban Underground Space (UUS) Exploration, Land Subsidence and Economic Impact Spatial Model (USEM) in Shanghai, P.R. China: Systematic Reviews, Model Framework, Initial Results and Pre-Determined Challenges

As a coastal megacity, Shanghai despite having one of the world’s leading UUS exploration for utilities, transportation, metro system, commercial and residential spaces is continuously vulnerable to serious geo-environmental hazards risks and climate change impact: land subsidence, flooding, storm surge, and seawater level rise. Hence, it is imperative to study the continuous impact of rapid UUS development, land subsidence mechanisms, related geo-environmental hazards and its socio-economic impacts towards establishing a resilient, adaptive and sustainable UUS development via spatial planning and development model to lessen future adverse consequences. The aim of this paper is to present current progressive findings of the entitled research work. Methods conducted include systematic reviews of existing online journals available at open-sourced databases such as Google Scholar and Research Gate, determined USEM’s concrete steps consists of cause-effect, spatiotemporal, scenarios modelling and comparative analysis. The data gathered are mostly secondary. The four major findings are: (1) systematic reviews summarised outcomes; (2) determined USEM model framework; (3) Initial results produced from the USEM’s first step of cause-effect analysis in Shanghai and (4) Pre-determined challenges for the model. The model’s methods are expected to be used to study Shanghai condition in comparison with developing coastal megacity like Jakarta, Indonesia. It can also be referred by related interested experts especially towards assisting deeper understanding on geo-dynamics of land subsidence, UUS and economic impact via spatial modelling and formulating policies of adaptation and resilience in developed and developing coastal megacities in the world.

Urbanization and urban land use efficiency: Evidence from regional and Addis Ababa satellite cities, Ethiopia

Ethiopia has experienced rapid urbanization over the past three decades. Several cities expanded rapidly and many satellite towns sprung up around the major cities. The high rate of urbanization and urban growth resulted in high demand for urban land, mainly for industrial, commercial, and residential purposes. In order to meet the demand, an enormous amount of land has been made available for urban use, mainly through land conversion. However, we know very little about how efficiently cities use urban land. This paper investigated the urban land use efficiency (ULUE) of sixteen cities in Ethiopia. Remote sensing data (Landsat 7/8) was analysed with ArcGIS to assess spatiotemporal land use changes between 2007 and 2019. Built-up environment footprints were computed from Google Earth imagery. The ratio of land consumption to population growth rate, and the rate of urban infill were assessed. The findings revealed a prevalence of urban land use inefficiencies in all cities. In most cities, the rate of land consumption far exceeds the population growth rate. Densification (urban infill) is low and slow. A considerable part of the converted agricultural land sits idle within the built-up area for many years. Low ULUE is what fuels urban sprawl, fragmentation and informal settlements. This study emphasised the need to implement urban policies and practices aimed at improving ULUE. Improving ULUE is imperative to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals; ensuring sustainable urban land use; addressing land prices and housing shortages; protecting farmland and ecosystems; tackling land hoarding, urban sprawl and informal settlements.

Monitoring the extent and impacts of watershed urban development in the Lake Victoria Basin, Kenya, using a combination of population dynamics, remote sensing and GIS techniques

Abstract Several urban centres of different sizes have developed over time, and continue to grow, within the basin of Lake Victoria. Uncontrolled urban development, especially along the lake shore, puts environmental pressure on Lake Victoria and its local ecosystem. This study sought to monitor the extent and impacts of urban development (as measured by population growth and built-up land use/land cover) in the Lake Victoria basin, Kenya, between 1978 and 2018. Remote sensing and GIS-based land use/land cover classification was conducted to extract change in built-up areas from Landsat 3, 4, 5 and 8 satellite imagery obtained for the month of January at intervals of ten years. Change in population distribution and density was analysed based on decadal census data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics between 1979 and 2019. A statistical regression model was then estimated to relate population growth to built-up area expansion. Results indicate that the basin’s built-up area has expanded by 97% between 1978 and 2018 while the population increased by 140% between 1979 and 2019. Urban development was attributed to the rapidly increasing population in the area as seen in a positive statistical correlation (R2=0.5744) between increase in built-up area and population growth. The resulting environmental pressure on the local ecosystem has been documented mainly in terms of degradation of lake water quality, eutrophication and aquatic biodiversity loss. The study recommends the enactment and implementation of appropriate eco-sensitive local legislation and policies for sustainable urban and rural land use planning in the area. This should aim to control and regulate urban expansion especially in the immediate shoreline areas of the lake and associated riparian zones.