Sustainable Transition Pathways Research Articles

When the Wind Blows: Incumbents’ Sourcing Strategies for Wind Power

While extant research on sustainability transitions discusses how innovations are nurtured in protective market spaces before causing change in established industries, we know less about how characteristics of these protective market spaces, policy, and resource endowments impact incumbents’ sustainability transition pathways for a new technology. We distinguish between incumbents’ choice to embrace innovation by contracting for wind power or direct ownership of windfarms. We contribute to recent calls in the literature to open the “black box” surrounding the heterogeneity in incumbents’ responses to sustainability transitions. In a sample of 801 windfarm transactions over a 14-year-time period (2004–2017), we find that characteristics of protective market spaces affect incumbents’ response: incumbents facing less experienced niche actors (windfarm developers) and acquiring greater capacities of the innovation (wind power) are more likely to own a windfarm than contract for wind power. Moreover, if the innovation has greater physical distance from incumbents’ operations, ownership is the incumbent's likely response to innovation. As policies for the innovation persists, incumbents are more likely to own a windfarm than contract for wind power. However, that relationship is weakened for firms more established in existing technologies. We contribute to the literature by demonstrating that market characteristics and policy impact heterogeneity in incumbents’ sustainability transitions.

Applying a multi-level perspective to understand sustainability transitions in last mile logistics in Guadalajara Metropolitan Area, Mexico

The paper is aimed at exploring sustainability transition pathways in last mile logistics in Guadalajara Metropolitan Area (GMA) by examining transition forces through the analysis of expert interviews. Therefore, the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework has been applied to identify factors that have an impact on the extent to which the regime dimensions are accommodating a transition towards more sustainable last mile delivery operations in GMA. The results show that there is an upcoming technological development (electric mobility, information and communication) enabling more efficient last mile delivery operations in GMA that are searching for new techno-organizational configurations.

Multispecies blue justice and energy transition conflict: examining challenges and possibilities for synergy between low-carbon energy and justice for humans and nonhuman nature

This paper explores deep insights into sustainability transition tensions and pathways in terms of place-based conflict and potential for synergies between offshore wind energy (OWE) development and justice for humans and nonhuman nature. Specifically, we build a capability and recognition-based multispecies blue justice framework that at once centers ecological reflexivity (i.e., environmental awareness-raising, proxy representation of nature, and institutional recognition and protection of rights of nature and human-nature relationality), decenters anthropocentric frames of justice, and sheds light on injustices, human and nonhuman that climate and energy transitions may create or reinforce. This framework then informs analysis of a sustainability transition conflict, specifically a longstanding OWE conflict on Hiiumaa island, Estonia. This analysis unravels justice concerns, human and nonhuman, raised by proxy representatives of nature (i.e., grassroots actors and environmental stewards), the knowledge contestations involved, and the resolution measures undertaken thus far. Next, we discuss the possible transformative role of the OWE conflict, including how a Supreme Court ruling invalidating the OWE plan has fostered reflexive planning and may have set a legal precedent that may have human and nonhuman justice implications for the handling of future planning cases. We then highlight remaining challenges for socially and ecologically responsive OWE deployment. These include the judicial non-recognition of nature’s right as well as environmental values and sociocultural ties to nature as rights worth protecting, and the likely effects that formalization of European Union ambitions to speed-up and ramp-up renewable energy could have locally. These include prospects for environmental stewards and ocean defenders to steer nature-positive, people-centered energy transitions. Last, we propose conditions for enhanced multispecies justice, including how formal interventions (e.g., law) and informal practices (e.g., negotiation, awareness-raising) can be harnessed to unlock productive conflict and align energy transitions with the norms of justice, human and nonhuman.

Blue transition for sustainable marine fisheries: Critical drivers and evidence from China

Achieving blue transition-sustainable fishery development has become one of the most important concerns for China's blue economy. Blue transition is defined as the transition from fish biomass reduction to biomass recovery of exploited fishery resources through the development of alternative seafood production from aquaculture. Our study examines the “blue transition” between marine fisheries captures and aquaculture production in China and probes the future development trends of China's fisheries under socioeconomic drivers. The results indicate that the resource displacement of the blue transition is not currently underway in China. It predicts a future decline in China's fish production after around 2030, while marine aquaculture products will remain a major component of fish production in the future. Our study adopts an integrated methodology to assess the critical timing of China's blue transition for the first time, and predicts future trends in marine capture fisheries transitions, which can provide recommendations for sustainable transition pathways to achieve SDG14.

Intelligent automation for sustainable tourism: a systematic review

The growing interest in intelligent automation adoption and development in tourism presents many potential solutions for sustainable tourism issues. To map the current landscape of research on intelligent automation in sustainable tourism, a systematic review was conducted of 213 scholarly articles. Five major themes were identified: intelligent automation to enhance tourist experience, preserve heritage, promote quality of life, measure tourist experience, and conserve the environment. Scholarly work on this topic has paid more attention to the economic and sociocultural aspects of sustainability but less to addressing environmental issues. To uncover further research gaps, this study outlines sustainability transition pathways using two dimensions: sustainability inclusion and tourist involvement. Twenty-three distinct AI-based innovations were mapped onto the pathways to reveal future research directions. The findings explain the lack of AI-based solutions that offer high levels of sustainability inclusion and tourist involvement. Thus, this study proposes the “AI4GoodTourism” framework, inferring that intelligent automation with high sustainability inclusion levels can scale up the marginal contributions that tourists provide collectively. This framework serves to guide future research and development for various stakeholders who are progressing sustainable tourism agendas through intelligent automation.

Signals of sustainability transition: Sensing enabling factors through cultural initiatives

This article reports a first attempt to combine the analysis of socio-technical mechanisms and initiative-based learning to sense sustainability transition signals in cities. Relying on the analysis of cultural initiatives in six European Cities, the study identifies those factors that enabled social impact generation. It then formulates hypotheses about their contribution to the inception and rooting of sustainability transition dynamics. As a result, the article proposes a set of analytical categories of enabling factors acting across niches and regimes. The same factors are then reinterpreted by referring to scaling mechanisms (scaling up, out and deep). The proposed analytical scheme seeks to offer a broader reflection on the conceptual and methodological challenges related to sensing and interpreting urban sustainability transition pathways.

Potential for Transition to Low-Carbon Urban Road Transport in Developing Countries: Insights from Literature

It is projected that if no actions are taken to cut down the current rate of global warming, global temperatures will rise to irreversible levels between the years 2030 and 2050. Consequently, climate-induced risks to health, livelihoods, food and water supply/security, economic development, and human security will increase. However, although many efforts have been put in the developed nations to enhance sustainability in cities through the development of a Low-carbon transportation system, the situation is different in the developing nations. These countries are, for some reason, reluctant to adopt the concept of Low-carbon cities. For example, in Kenya, despite the evident climate threat associated with rising urban carbon emissions in the country, very little action to curb the emissions is observed both at individual and government levels. This is especially so in the transport sector. Therefore, it is critical that suitable low-carbon transition pathways are identified and adopted in the sector in order to cut down the emission levels. Although the transition to low-carbon transport is faced with a myriad of challenges, transitions bring about an enormousness of environmental and societal benefits through the development of environmentally sustainable systems. Policy instruments are governance tools that can be used to enhance the environmental sustainability of urban transport options. However, climate change targets cannot be realistically attained by a single policy instrument. Instead, research indicates the need for more integrative and strong policy packages that can stimulate low-carbon transitions. In view of this, there is a clear need for the envisioning of sustainable future cities and potential transition pathways towards the realisation of these futures, as it is considered advantageous to various disciplines. This study provides information that can be used to develop an integrated urban transportation system that is environmentally sustainable and which efficiently incorporates all modes of transport; based on the theory of transitional management

Assessing the sustainability of the city-port transformations: Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for alternatives portfolio selection

In recent years, the EU has sought to define sustainable transition pathways towards more equitable, prosperous, and inclusive urban and territorial models, capable of responding to the rapid degradation of ecosystems, and improving quality of life of citizens. In this context, ports have been recognised as key strategic hubs not only for economic and logistical competitiveness, but also to generate employment and investment opportunities, and to address the challenges of the climate change. The research presents a multi-scale, multi-dimensional and multi- group methodological framework to support decision-making processes related to the development of sustainable transformations of port cities, capturing the complexity of interactions and conflicts. Integrating Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approaches and Problem Structuring Methods (PSM), the proposed methodology aims to address the following gaps identified in the literature: (i) a scattered application of multi-group methods; (ii) the lack of social instances within the decision problem; (iii) a weak sustainability perspective; (iv) the use of one-dimensional scale assessment in sectoral studies. The case study of the city-port of Gela in Sicily (Italy) provided an opportunity to test the proposed methodology and to integrate multi-dimensional sustainability issues into feasibility studies, promoting a more balanced relationship between city and port. The interdependencies between environment, society and economy allowed MCDA to be identified as a suitable approach to address complex decision-making and support the sustainability assessment of port areas transformation. Two multi-criteria and multi-group evaluation methods guided the decision-making process to select a portfolio of preferred alternatives by assessing technical, environmental, and economic impacts and analysing stakeholder conflicts and coalitions. The process was carried out as follows: on the one hand, a multidimensional impact matrix integrating Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) divided into technical, financial-economic, and environmental categories through the application of the multi-criteria method EVAMIX; on the other hand, a social assessment with a dendrogram of coalitions derived from the application of the multi-group method NAIADE by modelling stakeholders’ preferences regarding a portfolio of alternatives related to the decision problem.

An optimal integrated power and water supply planning model considering Water-Energy-Emission nexus

Water and energy are the major factors in the new United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainable conversion and management in the secure supply of increasing demand for water and electricity is a challenging concern. It is recently complicated due to economic development, population growth, resource depletion, and climate change, which requires a simultaneous progressive planning. Since energy and water systems are instinctively interdependent and mutually interacted (known as nexus), this paper employed an integrated solution-based method. A bottom-up optimization model is developed considering Water-Energy-Emission Nexus approach for both power and water sectors. The model minimizes the economic costs subjected to techno-economic constraints and socio-environmental requirements. An innovative multi-dimensional index called Water-Electricity Nexus Index is presented to assess how water and power sectors are interdependent. The model is applicable for any region and the results for a real case show that the nexus index is increasing remarkably (7.6,3.3,47.7 changes to 12.3,3.7,55.0) if the current situation continues for both sectors in the Business-As-Usual scenario. It means the two sectors are interweaving more in the coming years, which will make planning and security provisions difficult. The nexus of electricity for water sector increases by about 60 % and although the share of water withdrawal for power sector is 3.7 % in the region, the total water withdrawal is much more (55 % over the life cycle considering virtual water). Hence, several scenarios are defined to depict future transition pathways and optimal strategies considering demands, prices, taxation policy, restrictions, and technological efficiency. The results show that rapid economic growth scenarios are not sustainable transition pathways (i.e. the nexus index changes to 16.1,20.8,112.0 and 16.1,20.3,47.7). Finally, it is concluded that increasing the renewable resource of power generation capacity between 22 and 40 %, improvement of the achievable technological efficiency in power plants from 25 to 50 percent, as well as demand-side management to keep the annual growth rate of electricity and water between 1.5 and 2.5 % and 1.1–1.5 %, imposing the carbon tax (5–75 $ton) and water tax (0.1–2 $m3) are the major drivers to reduce the nexus index. This framework provides significant insights to improve the integrated planning of water and power sectors in the regions for managers and authorities.

Engaging or resisting? How forest–based industry and private forest owners respond to bioenergy policies in Aquitaine (Southwestern France)

Since the mid-2000s, the critical role of biomass for achieving the French renewable energy objectives is viewed as a means to entice private forest owners to be more proactive in sustainable wood harvesting. However, how bioenergy policies are really implemented and lead (or not) to practice changes at the forest management level remains unclear. In this paper, we assume that these sustainable transition pathways depend on power relations, negotiations and trade-offs between policymakers and forest industry in the one hand and between forest industry and forest owners on the other hand. To address this challenge, we develop a comprehensive and meso-micro level approach informed by theoretical insights from the Multi-Level Perspective of system innovation (MLP) and the Social Practice Theory (SPL). Monitoring the implementation process of two bioenergy policies in Aquitaine region (southwestern France), we show that forest industries are recognized as a progressive force in sustainable transition processes despite their underlying propensity to consider bioenergy policies as a new means to optimize their economic interests regarding forest resources. Conversely, even if forest owners often withstand implementing the most intensive forestry models, they may adopt new practices incrementally, proceeding with caution and without completely abandoning their existing practices. Finally, by coupling the MLP and the STP models, we provide a more nuanced picture of both firms’ engagement and forest owners’ resistance in the dynamics of change. One of the main policy implication is that sustainable transition not only challenges the management capacity of reluctant or inexperienced forest owners but also the collective willingness of forest industries to really support transformative changes in wood mobilization processes.

Micro-Level Sustainability Transition Pathways of Institutional Food Services in France

Very few studies have dealt with sustainability transitions in the agrifood sector, especially in institutional food services (IFS), and notably at a micro level. Based on 29 interviews with head cooks in France, we characterized the micro-level sustainability transition pathways that institutional catering units have been following, taking essentially four sustainable practices into consideration: organic food use, ultra-processed food use, vegetarian meals and waste management. We identified four transition pathways according to the speed, size, dimensionality and time-period of changes in those practices. We showed how these pathways are linked to the diversity of transition contexts; internal (e.g., skills) and external (e.g., local suppliers) resources and constraints. This original empirical study revealed the diversity and feasibility of sustainability transition pathways in IFS. It also showed that they do not require unreasonable increases in resources. Positive narratives on transitions need developing, together with diagnosis tools to guide them.

Delivering net-zero carbon heat: Technoeconomic and whole-system comparisons of domestic electricity- and hydrogen-driven technologies in the UK

Proposed sustainable transition pathways for moving away from natural gas in domestic heating focus on two main energy vectors: electricity and hydrogen. Electrification would be implemented by using vapour-compression heat pumps, which are currently experiencing market growth in many countries. On the other hand, hydrogen could substitute natural gas in boilers or be used in thermally–driven absorption heat pumps. In this paper, a consistent thermodynamic and economic methodology is developed to assess the competitiveness of these options. The three technologies, along with the option of district heating, are for the first time compared for different weather/ambient conditions and fuel-price scenarios, first from a homeowner’s and then from a whole-energy system perspective. For the former, two-dimensional decision maps are generated to identify the most cost-effective technologies for different combinations of fuel prices. It is shown that, in the UK, hydrogen technologies are economically favourable if hydrogen is supplied to domestic end-users at a price below half of the electricity price. Otherwise, electrification and the use of conventional electric heat pumps will be preferred. From a whole-energy system perspective, the total system cost per household (which accounts for upstream generation and storage, as well as technology investment, installation and maintenance) associated with electric heat pumps varies between 790 and 880 £/year for different scenarios, making it the least-cost decarbonisation pathway. If hydrogen is produced by electrolysis, the total system cost associated with hydrogen technologies is notably higher, varying between 1410 and 1880 £/year. However, this total system cost drops to 1150£/year with hydrogen produced cost-effectively by methane reforming and carbon capture and storage, thus reducing the gap between electricity- and hydrogen-driven technologies.

Sustainable transition pathways with high penetration of variable renewable energy in the coal-based energy systems

The sustainable transition of an entirely coal-powered energy system is a challenge that can be solved by integrating variable renewable energy sources and considering the synergic effect between energy supply and different sectors of energy consumption. This research shows how the scaling-up in variable renewable energy sources uptake and sector coupling while maintaining high flexibility in thermal power plants can be achieved in a coal-based energy system. The Kosovo energy system is modelled in the EnergyPLAN model as a case study. Appropriate energy transition pathways have been defined to meet the national energy policies by 2030. Five different scenarios that took into account the increase of renewable production capacities, flexible operation of coal-based thermal power plants and sector coupling options for a suitable primary energy mix by 2030 are have been discussed. Significant differences in annualized technology and emission costs can be observed between scenarios. In addition, scenario three seems to be the least cost in comparison to other scenarios. The total CO2 emissions for projected scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in 2030 accounted for 4.78, 5.28, 4.48, 3.97 and 4.95 MtCO2/year, respectively. In addition, the total annual costs for projected scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in 2030 accounted for 2168, 1611, 1993, 2479 and 2817 MEUR, respectively.

Blinded by the sun: The role of prosumers as niche actors in incumbent firms’ adoption of solar power during sustainability transitions

While extant research discusses how niche innovations develop in protected market niches and trigger regime shifts along sustainability transition pathways, we know less about the direct role of different niche actors as competitors in affecting regime incumbents’ investments in niche innovations. This study addresses this gap and builds on Strategic Niche Management and the Multi-level Perspective to distinguish two different niche actors: prosumers on the demand-side applying a niche innovation in a disruptive way to regime incumbents’ business model, and new entrants on the supply-side applying the niche innovation symbiotically with the regime. We examine incumbent responses to these different niche actors in different competitive and policy environments. Studying the United States’ electricity industry's sustainability transition toward solar from 2010-2017, we find that as more niche actors enter, regime incumbents are more likely to invest in the niche innovation, but the effect is influenced by policy and competitiveness of the environment. In competitive environments, incumbents are more likely to respond to disruptive niche actors (prosumers), while in traditional monopoly-like markets they are more likely to respond to symbiotic niche actors. We also find that the prosumer effect is stronger when the time that policies in support of the niche innovation have existed is shorter, indicating a potential substituting relationship of niche actors and policy. Our work contributes to the extant literature by demonstrating that the interplay between different niche actors needs to be understood within the context of policy, and that considering policy without accounting for the competitive environment may omit an important aspect of how regime actors become active participants in sustainability transitions.

Learning from emancipation: The Port Royal Experiment and transition theory

Over the last decade, transition studies has emerged as an intellectual field aimed at answering the question: How do we get to a more sustainable world? Emerging from a combination of science and technology studies, evolutionary economics, and studies of innovation, transition studies has become a widely used conceptual tool to frame pathways to a more sustainable future. However, its embrace of a systems approach to change, I will argue, transition studies remains unengaged with critical theories of change in sociology, history, and political economy. In addition, geographers have critiqued transition studies for its lack of attention to spatial relationships. Using a particular historical case study of transition in a particular place—the Port Royal “Free Labor” emancipation experiments in the South Carolina Sea Islands during the Civil War—this paper explores both the weaknesses and the strengths of transition studies as a conceptual tool, and how attention to critical and spatial approaches to change can improve our understanding of transitions. In particular, I will show how a political ecology, as a critical and spatial approach, can improve transition studies. I will use a historical case, the Port Royal emancipation experiments, to illustrate how the addition of political ecology to transition studies can improve one’s understanding of sustainable transition pathways.

The role of geographical scales in sustainability transitions: An empirical investigation of the European industrial context

The journey towards sustainability has become paramount to industry, government and research. To date, the main contributions have proposed valuable theoretical models to study the transitions to sustainability. However, a quantitative examination of the phenomenon is still limited. In this paper, we exploit a multilevel-growth model to empirically explore the relevance of different geographical scales in studying sustainability transitions. By analysing a novel, 9-year longitudinal dataset that covers European carbon emission intensity data on four different scales (from specific districts to whole states), we show whether and how multiple geographical scales support the study of sustainability transition pathways. Drawing on our analysis, we contribute to the debate on economic geography, sustainability transition and carbon emission intensity, as well as discuss implications for sustainability policy, strategy and research.

Balancing the Energy Trilemma in energy system planning of coastal cities

The energy transition usually encounters challenges in balancing three competing common goals of economics costs, CO2 emissions, and energy resilience (the so-called Energy Trilemma). Such trade-offs are particularly conspicuous for coastal cities, which often have more ambitious emission reduction targets and are more likely to face threats of extreme weather events such as typhoons. To tackle the Energy Trilemma of the city-level energy transition, this study develops a bottom-up multi-objective optimisation framework. The framework enables simultaneous optimising the long-term energy portfolio for a 20-year horizon and the short-term hourly dispatch strategy considering demand-side flexibility of energy storage. By setting multiple objectives, the trade-offs between three representative scenarios are evaluated via Pareto frontiers, i.e., the least-cost, the least-emissions, and the diversity-optimal scenarios. The case study in a typical coastal city, i.e., Xiamen, China, indicates that with limited local resources for solar, wind, and other renewable resources, the electricity transition would still need to rely on imported power to a large extent. Compared to the least-cost pathway, additional costs of 3.9% can help achieve a pathway with maximum energy diversity to enhance resilience, whereas 26.8% additional costs are needed to achieve the least-emissions pathway. In addition, the initial 10-year modelling results are verified by comparison with real-world actual data to further generate valuable insights into sustainable transition pathways of similar coastal cities.

Exploring non-linear transition pathways in social-ecological systems

Tipping point dynamics are fundamental drivers for sustainable transition pathways of social-ecological systems (SES). Current research predominantly analyzes how crossing tipping points causes regime shifts, however, the analysis of potential transition pathways from these social and ecological tipping points is often overlooked. In this paper, we analyze transition pathways and the potential outcomes that these may lead to via a stylized model of a system composed of interacting agents exploiting resources and, by extension, the overall ecosystem. Interactions between the social and the ecological system are based on a perception-exploitation framework. We show that the presence of tipping points in SES may yield counter-intuitive social-ecological transition pathways. For example, the high perception of an alarming ecological state among agents can provide short-term ecological benefits, but can be less effective in the long term, compared to a low-perception condition. This work also highlights how understanding non-linear interactions is critical for defining suitable transition pathways of any SES.

Sustainability transition pathways through ecological intensification: an assessment of vegetable food systems in Chile

ABSTRACT Ecological intensification has been proposed as a promising lever for a transition towards more sustainable food systems. Various food systems exist that are based on ecological intensification and may have potential for a sustainability transition. Little is known, however, about their diversity and about how they perform against dominant systems in terms of the multiple societal goals. The aim of this study is to contribute to knowledge about sustainability transitions in food systems through an empirical analysis of vegetable food systems in Chile. The study (i) characterizes the diversity of vegetable food systems in Chile (ii) evaluates the food systems in terms of multiple societal goals, and (iii) assesses their potential for supporting sustainability transition pathways from the perspective of ecological intensification. Results indicate that among the five vegetable food system types, the agroecological and the small organic have potential to foster a sustainability transition. Nevertheless, these systems are small and localized, and scaling them requires actions to remove barriers in the relations with the agri-food regime and among themselves. The broader relevance of this analysis is that there needs to be awareness in research on transitions about the diversity of food systems present in countries and how they interact.

An integrated sustainability assessment of synergistic supply of energy and water in remote communities

The success of deploying energy and water technologies in remote communities in developing countries can be improved by considering their synergistic relationships and their social, economic and environmental implications. This paper first evaluates social implications of current energy and water supply in a prototypical remote community against five future (2030) scenarios for synergistic provision of electricity, heat for cooking and water. This is followed by an integrated assessment of the social, environmental and economic life cycle sustainability through multicriteria decision analysis. The Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario shows high life cycle health impacts but low impacts from local air pollution. The contrary is true for the Independent and Advanced Independent scenarios which assume community self-sufficiency in energy and water supply. Greater access to electricity and water in the Advanced and Advanced Independent scenarios increases the potential for human development and security of supply, but there is an increase in the risk of accidents and decrease in social acceptability of the water supply. Similarly, a transition towards clean cooking fuels away from traditional solid biomass reduces local air pollution but increases reliance on imported fuels (BAU and Advanced scenarios). The Transition scenario is socially the most sustainable option, while Independent and Advanced Independent are the best options environmentally. They also have the lowest total operating costs, but have higher capital requirements than most other scenarios. Overall, unless extreme preferences for either environmental or social aspects are adopted, the Transition and Independent scenarios emerge as the most sustainable options. This suggests that current energy and water supply to remote communities can be transitioned sustainably to a self-sufficient system that does not depend on imported resources. The scenarios developed in this work present a framework for an integrated design and evaluation of energy and water supply in remote communities with the aim of aiding stakeholders in defining sustainable transition pathways.