Abstract
Tipping point dynamics are fundamental drivers for sustainable transition pathways of social-ecological systems (SES). Current research predominantly analyzes how crossing tipping points causes regime shifts, however, the analysis of potential transition pathways from these social and ecological tipping points is often overlooked. In this paper, we analyze transition pathways and the potential outcomes that these may lead to via a stylized model of a system composed of interacting agents exploiting resources and, by extension, the overall ecosystem. Interactions between the social and the ecological system are based on a perception-exploitation framework. We show that the presence of tipping points in SES may yield counter-intuitive social-ecological transition pathways. For example, the high perception of an alarming ecological state among agents can provide short-term ecological benefits, but can be less effective in the long term, compared to a low-perception condition. This work also highlights how understanding non-linear interactions is critical for defining suitable transition pathways of any SES.
Highlights
Tipping point dynamics are fundamental drivers for sustainable transition pathways of social-ecological systems (SES)
Human actions and ecological systems are continually co-evolving via complex, interdependent feedback dynamics, making it difficult to fully understand such interactions between the social system and the ecological system, especially if each system is studied in isolation[1,2,3,4,5]
The first type of transition is represented by pathway A: an ecological source of change pushes the system over an ecological tipping point; there is no change in the social dimension of the system
Summary
Tipping point dynamics are fundamental drivers for sustainable transition pathways of social-ecological systems (SES). Based on the perception of alarming ecological states and interaction with other users, users’ opinions evolve over time leading to changes in their exploitation levels (blue box on Fig. 2b, see Methods). Each user type is characterized by different (a) perception of alarming ecological states, (b) initial levels of ecosystem exploitation preferences, and (c) susceptibility to changes in opinion based on social interactions.
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