Ecological Sustainable Development Research Articles

Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Services Value in Urban Agglomerations Using Land Use/Cover Change Analysis: Case Study of Wuhan in China

The evaluation of ecosystem service value (ESV) is crucial for decision making in regional sustainable development. The close relationship between ecosystem services and land use/cover change (LUCC) is well acknowledged. However, the impact of the mutual transformation among different land use types on the temporal and spatial differences in the ESV is still unclear. To fulfill this gap, this study evaluates the ESV in the Wuhan Urban Agglomerations based on LUCC, taking the spatiotemporal characteristics into consideration. The results show that (1) The land use structure in the Wuhan Urban Agglomerations has undergone great changes from 2012 to 2021, and the area of cultivated land converted to forest land is the largest, which may be related to policies such as returning farmland to forests. (2) The total amount of ESV shows a downward trend, and the spatial distribution of ESV is “low in the west and high in the central and eastern regions”, which may be related to the natural factors in study area. (3) The spatial distribution of ESV in the study area will remain unchanged in the future. However, the transformation among land use types may exacerbate the reduction in the total ESV, which will have an adverse impact on the ecological environment and sustainable development of the region. This study initiates a more comprehensive framework to better reflect the real scenario of ESV, which will hopefully provide a reference for regional sustainable development.

Ecological Vulnerability Assessment of the Three Rivers Source Area Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process

The Three Rivers Source, known as the “Water Tower of China”, is the birthplace of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River. The carrying capacity and environmental capacity of its ecological environment affect the ecological balance and resource utilization in the surrounding areas of the Three Rivers Source region, and are even closely related to the country’s ecology and economy. Taking the Three Rivers Source region as the research object, this paper selects six indicator layers and their corresponding 23 indicator items that affect the ecological vulnerability of the region. Nine professors in the field of ecological environment were invited to score and screen the indicators. Finally, a judgment matrix was established, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to comprehensively evaluate the ecological vulnerability of the Three Rivers Source region. The research results show that the most significant factor affecting the ecological vulnerability of the Three Rivers Source region is the reduction in ecological area, with a weight of up to 23.4%. This factor is followed by changes in terrain, growth and development environment, ground trampling effects, changes in vegetation structure, and potential changes in the integrity of natural vegetation. Their weights are 19.8%, 18.5%, 15.4%, 13.8%, and 12.3%, respectively. The weight of reduction in area is approximately 1.6 times higher than the potential impact on the integrity of natural vegetation. Changes in soil environment and terrain are the primary factors affecting ecological vulnerability. The lower the potential integrity of vegetation, the more fragile the ecosystem. Among the 20 research sites in the Three Rivers Source region, one has an extremely fragile ecological environment, and only six sites do not require excessive intervention. By analyzing and evaluating the different influencing factors of ecological vulnerability in the Three Rivers Source region, this study formulates corresponding ecological strategies to ensure the ecological restoration and sustainable development of the Three Rivers Source region. It provides a theoretical basis for the protection, management, and ecological construction of the Three Rivers Source region.

Public Willingness to Pay for Farmland Eco-Compensation and Allocation to Farmers: An Empirical Study from Northeast China

Farmland eco-compensation, as a typical payment for ecosystem services scheme, aims to address trade-offs between environmental and developmental objectives. As indispensable eco-compensation supporters, the public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for farmland eco-compensation and the allocation to farmers directly affect ecological safety and sustainable development for farmland. Therefore, this study links the public’s WTP for the farmland eco-compensation to the financial subsidies received by farmers and presents a theoretical framework and research approach that connects stakeholders, applying improved choice experiments for empirical study in the black soil region of northeastern China. The results showed that the public has a positive WTP for the farmland eco-compensation program that improves the area, soil thickness, and organic content expeditiously. The public’s WTP allocation for eco-compensation varies considerably, with the share allocated to farmers in their WTP averaging 46.96%, showing a benchmark for compensation standards. The results revealed the influential relationship between the socioeconomic characteristics of the public with WTP allocation and the preferences for farmland eco-compensation, such as the positive correlation between age with WTP allocation and females’ greater preference for eco-compensation. These findings can provide new perspectives and approaches to exploring sustainable pathways for farmland eco-compensation.

Assessment of Ecological Quality and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Coal-Bearing Hilly Areas of Northern China: An Exploration of Human Mining and Natural Topography

The Changhe Basin is located in the earth–rock mountainous area in southeastern Shanxi, China, and represents a characteristic northern coal-bearing hilly area. The terrain is complex, and the area is rich in coal mines. It plays an indispensable role in maintaining ecological balance and sustainable development in North China. To investigate the changes in ecological quality in the Changhe Basin, as well as the impact of human mining activities and natural topography on ecological quality, this study constructs the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) based on Landsat remote sensing images from 2001, 2008, 2015, and 2022, undertaking an analysis of the spatial–temporal distribution characteristics of the ecological quality and its changing trends over the past 20 years. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation distribution features are revealed using Moran’s I. The exploration extends to examining the relationship between mining activities and the surrounding ecological quality. Subsequently, we study the relationship between Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and RSEI. The results indicate the following: (1) On the temporal scale, the average proportion of RSEIs categorized as excellent and good from 2001 to 2022 is 46.78%. Types showcasing stable ecological conditions average 52.49%. The level of overall ecological quality of the basin has remained consistently high. On the spatial scale, the western part of the Changhe River, particularly in mountainous areas, exhibits higher ecological quality. Poorer areas concentrate in Chuandi Town in the southwestern part, and are significantly impacted by mining activities. The eastern region manifests areas undergoing either rapid or gradual degradation. (2) The four-phase Moran index results reveal a robust positive correlation in the spatial distribution of ecological quality within the basin. High–High and Low–Low clusters dominate, while High–Low and Low–High distributions are scattered. (3) Mining activities exert a discernible impact on the surrounding ecological quality. As the distance from the buffer zone outside the mining area increases, RSEI gradually decreases. The impact level exhibits an initial increase and subsequent decrease from 2001 to 2022.

Factors influencing the relationship between perceptions of ecosystem services and well-being of farmers in the ore-agriculture zone, China

Understanding the coupling relationship between ecosystem service perceptions (ESP) and farmers’ well-being (FWB) in the ore-agriculture zone plays an important strategic role in maintaining regional ecological security and improving the well-being of regional farmers. Based on field research, questionnaire surveys and other methods, this study took farmers around the coal mining development zone as research subjects and used a comprehensive multi-index assessment method to evaluate the level of ESP and the FWB in the research area. A coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the coupling relationship between ESP and FWB, and the random forest model was used to explore the influencing factors of the coupling relationship between the two. The results showed: (1) The FWB index was moderate and the ESP index was low. Farmers’ perceptions of the different ecosystem services varied, with provisioning services being perceived most strongly and supporting services least strongly. Satisfaction with basic material needs was highest on the well-being assessment. (2) The overall state of ESP and FWB coupling was good, with most of them in the state of coordination improvement. From the perspective of dimensional differentiation, the coupling of the dimensions of ESP and FWB was poorly coordinated, and all of them were in the state of dysfunction regression. (3) The coupling relationship between ESP and FWB was influenced by both environmental and household characteristics, with the former having a stronger effect. The results of this study can serve as a reference for promoting the coordination of ESP and FWB in the ore-agriculture zone, and ultimately realize the sustainable development of ecology and human in the ore-agriculture zone.

Research on ecological restoration and its impact on society in coal resource-based areas: Lessons from the Ruhr area in Germany and the Liulin area in China

The coal resource-based areas rely on coal resources and primary processing as their pillar industries, such as the old industrial areas in China and Germany. Long-term, large-scale coal mining has significantly damaged the ecological environment of mining areas. Environmental restoration refers to repairing, rehabilitating, or revitalizing ecosystems that have been degraded, damaged, or destroyed by human activities or natural disasters. In fact, ecological restoration is not just an environmental issue and it is a societal problem. Ecological restoration is closely linked to natural resources, the environment, the economy, society, and politics. These factors form a social ecological system and it is the basis for local stability and sustainable development in the coal resource-based areas. In this process, the relationship between government, enterprise, and local people is constantly being reshaped and defined, then it causes changes in the local social ecology and political ecology. The paper researches the Ruhr area in Germany and the Liulin County in China, the former is a world-famous old industrial and the latter is a typical coal mining subsidence district. By analyzing and comparing the ecological restoration and significant social changes in the Ruhr area and the Liulin County at different periods, the findings show the unique ecology— social system of the coal resource-based area, then enhances the effective measures for ecological restoration and sustainable development of the coal resource-based areas.

Xiaojiang River Basin Ecological Environmental Quality Spatiotemporal Pattern and Evolutionary Trend Analysis Using GEE from 1990 to 2022

Assessment and monitoring of the quality of the ecological environment in the area is a very important fundamental task in the development of ecological civilization in the Xiaojiang River Basin in Yunnan Province, which serves as a demonstration area for ecological restoration in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The Landsat remote sensing images from 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 were chosen, and the four indexes of greenness （NDMVI）, humidity （WET）, dryness （NDBSI）, and heat （LST） were extracted. The remote sensing ecological index （RSEI） was created using the principal component analysis method, then the spatial and temporal patterns and trends of ecological quality in the Xiaojiang River Basin between 1990 and 2022 were examined using the GEE platform, ArcGIS 10.7 platform, and Python platform, combining the analysis methods of geographic information mapping, coefficient of variation, Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen's slope estimation, and Hurst's index. The findings demonstrated that： ① the ecological quality of the study area had more obvious geographic differentiation spatially, and by 2022, the areas with excellent and good ecological quality grades were primarily distributed in the areas with better alpine vegetation cover, and those with poor ecological quality were primarily distributed in the areas of the mudslide ravines with relatively low terrain. On a time scale, the study area's RSEI index increased from 0.41 in 1990 to 0.55 in 2022, with a fluctuating overall trend of ecological quality improvement and an average increase of 0.048（10 a） -1； this progress was directly related to a number of ecological construction initiatives that have been energetically carried out, such as converting farms to forests, preventing mudslides, saving soil and water, managing heavy metal contamination, etc. ② The RSEI was more appropriate for the evaluation of ecological quality in alpine ravine areas because, in comparison to the NDVI index, the NDVMI adopted in this study was more sensitive to vegetation information in topographic undulation areas, especially in shaded areas, and could more accurately and quantitatively describe the vegetation information. ③ The RSEI in the Xiaojiang River Basin had a mean coefficient of variation of 0.202. Overall, its volatility was low, and its high volatility was mostly concentrated in the mudslide gully area along both sides of the Xiaojiang River fracture zone, where the surface was made up of bare rocks and sediment that was easily impacted by the changing of the seasons, the climate, and human activity. ④ The quality of the ecological environment in the region was significantly improving, with the rising area reaching 85.72% of the total area and the declining area accounting for approximately 10.15% of the total area. The future trend of change will be dominated by ongoing improvement and future degradation, accounting for 44.75% and 39.97%, respectively. It is important to pay close attention to areas that could potentially degrade. The findings of this study can serve as a theoretical foundation for additional ecological environmental conservation, management, and sustainable development in the Xiaojiang River Basin.

Exploring the ecological security evaluation of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin under the background of ecological sustainable development

The Yangtze River (hereafter referred to as the YZR), the largest river in China, is of paramount importance for ensuring water resource security. The Yangtze River Basin (hereafter referred to as the YRB) is one of the most densely populated areas in China, and complex human activities have a significant impact on the ecological security of water resources. Therefore, this paper employs theories related to ecological population evolution and the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model to construct an indicator system for the ecological security of water resources in the YRB. The report evaluates the ecological security status of water resources in each province of the YRB from 2010 to 2019, clarifies the development trend of its water resource ecological security, and proposes corresponding strategies for regional ecological security and coordinated economic development. According to the results of the ecological population evolution competition model, the overall indicator of the ecological security of water resources in the YRB continues to improve, with the safety level increasing annually. Maintaining sound management of water resources in the YRB is crucial for sustainable socioeconomic development. To further promote the ecological security of water resources in the YRB and the coordinated development of the regional economy, this paper proposes policy suggestions such as promoting the continuous advancement of sustainable development projects, actively adjusting industrial structure, continuously enhancing public environmental awareness, and actively participating in international ecological construction and seeking cooperation among multiple departments.

Biomass and Circular Economy: Now and the Future

Biomass is inherently organic and renewable, promoting a circular economy ecosystem. As global consumption patterns change, circular economy strategies have turned into sustainable net-zero strategies for developing countries and developed countries, and its value chain is now included in important biomass energy policies. Many countries are actively transforming their economic growth patterns, developing their own circular economy, targeting ecological sustainable development, and adjusting domestic industrial structures. The concept of a circular society, synergistic with the social economy and developed on the basis of the circular economy, has production and consumption at its core. This research aims to verify the important roles that biomass plays in the circular economy and to initiate a virtuous resource circulation model, promote material recycling and reuse, form a “resources-products-renewable resources” model, and promote better resource use efficiency. It discusses the important roles that the bioeconomy plays when achieving a circular economy and also proposes new economic and policy concepts. The key conclusions cover: (1) the biomass energy–circular economy business model; (2) recognizing the co-benefit of consumers and a prosumer circular economy; and (3) challenges to a renewable cycle under economic applications.

Biomass and Circular Economy: Now and the Future

Biomass is inherently organic and renewable, promoting a circular economy ecosystem. As global consumption patterns change, circular economy strategies have turned into sustainable net-zero strategies for developing countries and developed countries, and its value chain is now included in important biomass energy policies. Many countries are actively transforming their economic growth patterns, developing their own circular economy, targeting ecological sustainable development, and adjusting domestic industrial structures. The concept of a circular society, synergistic with the social economy and developed on the basis of the circular economy, has production and consumption at its core. This research aims to verify the important roles that biomass plays in the circular economy and to initiate a virtuous resource circulation model, promote material recycling and reuse, form a “resources-products-renewable resources” model, and promote better resource use efficiency. It discusses the important roles that the bioeconomy plays when achieving a circular economy and also proposes new economic and policy concepts. The key conclusions cover: (1) the biomass energy–circular economy business model; (2) recognizing the co-benefit of consumers and a prosumer circular economy; and (3) challenges to a renewable cycle under economic applications.

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of vegetation net ecosystem productivity in Henan Province over the past 20 years

Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is a crucial parameter for assessing the carbon cycle dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and future trends of NEP in Henan Province over the past 20 years based on MOD17A3HGF, meteorological, and land-use data, employing the frequency counting method, trend test, Hurst index, and the center of gravity model. Various areas of changes in vegetation carbon sequestration were explored, and the driving factors were quantitatively assessed through correlation analysis, Sankey diagrams, and Geodetector. The results demonstrate that: 1) Continuous temporal changes in NEP in Henan, with annual average values fluctuating between 272.84 and 451.39 gC·m-2·a1, exhibiting an overall upward trend. 2) Spatially, there is a distinct distribution of NEP, concentrating more in the south and less in the north. While the study area generally experiences a dominant gradual enhancement of vegetation carbon sequestration capacity, the middle and north of Zhengzhou City exhibit a significant decline, which is expected to persist in the future. The migration of the centers of gravity of NEP over the past 20 years is characterized by stage-specific differentiation. 3) Among the various land cover types, forests have the strongest carbon sequestration capacity; however, cropland emerges as the province’s main source of NEP due to its extensive size. 4) The driving factors for spatial differentiation in NEP exhibit some temporal variability. Overall, climate factors and atmospheric pollution exert stronger influences, with the interactive explanatory power of the two-factor interaction being higher than that of the single factor. The results of this study can serve as a scientific theoretical basis for ecological policy-making and sustainable development in Henan Province.

Assessment of sustainable development capacity of resource-based cities based on ecological carrying capacity —taking Zigong City, Sichuan Province, China as an example

In this paper, the ecological footprint model is used to analyze the ecological carrying capacity of resource-based cities, and the ecological profit and loss state is calculated to evaluate their sustainable development ability. Taking Zigong City of Sichuan Province as an example, Research has shown that the ecological carrying capacity of Zigong City has been increasing year by year from 2006 to 2012 and from 2015 to 2021. There was a sharp decline from 2013 to 2014. The ecological and economic diversity index and the development capacity of the ecological and economic system showed an upward trend from 2006 to 2021. However, from 2006 to 2020, the ecological sustainable development index of Zigong City was below 0.2, indicating a serious unsustainable state. In 2021, it was in a moderately unsustainable state. According to the protection of cultivated land resources, forest resources, grassland resources, water resources, energy utilization and building land involved in Zigong City's sustainable development ability, the corresponding suggestions are put forward.Considering the economic, environmental and social aspects, this paper propose a path for sustainable development ability of resource-based cities.

Predicting the potential risk of Caragana shrub encroachment in the Eurasian steppe under anthropogenic climate change

Climate change and human activities drive widespread shrub encroachment in global grassland ecosystems, particularly in the Eurasian steppe. Caragana shrubs, the primary contributors to shrub encroachment in this region, play a crucial role in shaping the ecosystem's structure and function. Future changes in the suitable distribution range of Caragana species will directly affect the ecological security and sustainable socio-economic development of the Eurasian steppe ecosystem. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict Caragana shrub-dominated plant communities' current and future distribution in three major steppe subregions: the Black Sea-Kazakhstan steppe, the Tibetan Plateau steppe, and the Central Asian steppe. We assessed the potential risk of Caragana shrub encroachment by predicting changes in the suitable distribution area of 19 Caragana shrub species under future climate changes. Our research findings suggest that the expansion of Caragana species in different subregions of the Eurasian steppe is influenced by the effects of climate change in various ways. The distribution of Caragana species is primarily influenced by precipitation and temperature, and the global human modification (ghm) has a significant impact on the Central Asian and Tibetan Plateau subregions. Minimal changes are expected in the Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregion, a slight increase on the Tibetan Plateau, and a substantial rise in the Central Asian subregion, which suggests a higher potential risk of Caragana species shrub encroachment in that area. Our research provides valuable insights into the response of Caragana shrub encroachment to changing climates and human activities. It also has implications for the sustainable management of different areas of the vast Eurasian steppe ecosystem.

Assessing ecosystem service dynamics and drivers for sustainable management in the Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China: A spatiotemporal analysis

To achieve regional ecological management and sustainable socio-economic development, it is essential to comprehend the intricate and interdependent relationships among various ecosystem services. The Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is a typical ecologically vulnerable area. There is limited research on managing multiple ecosystem services to maximize supply based on understanding the complex relationships among ecosystem services. This study used the InVEST model to quantify habitat quality (HQ), soil conservation (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), and water yield (WY) in the Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China in 2000, 2010, and 2020 at the 5 km grid and county scales. Their trade-off and synergistic effects were explored using Spearman correlation analysis and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. In addition, self-organizing mapping was employed to identify ecosystem service bundles at two scales, whereas the geodetector was employed to determine the primary social-ecological drivers of ES. Finally, management strategies are proposed based on the research results to promote regional ecological sustainability. The results indicate that: (1) The four ESs exhibited an increasing trend during the study period. Except for WY, the other three ES demonstrated a similar spatial distribution while remaining relatively stable over time; (2) there is a synergistic effect between CS, HQ, and SC, whereas WY-related ES show trade-off effects; (3) six ES bundles were identified at the 5 km grid scale, and four ES bundles were identified at the county scale; (4) precipitation is a major driving factor for WY and an important driving factor for CS, HQ, and SC. In summary, natural factors have a greater impact on ES than socio-economic factors. Based on the differences in ecosystem service bundles and drivers at different scales, and in conjunction with China’s existing environmental policies, corresponding ecological management strategies were proposed, potentially providing a reference for sustainable development of the Agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China.

Measurement and evaluation of agricultural technological innovation efficiency in the Yellow River Basin of China under water resource constraints

Improving the efficiency of agricultural technology innovation is an inevitable requirement for ecological protection and sustainable agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin. Under the background of prominent water resources constraints in the Yellow River Basin, the actual level and regional differences of agricultural technology innovation efficiency in the basin are analyzed, which will provide theoretical basis and data reference for the development plan of agricultural modernization in the Yellow River Basin. The construction of evaluation index system and the choice of method are the main factors that affect the measurement results. Therefore, this paper first selects input indicators such as water-saving technology level and output indicators such as total agricultural output value to construct an innovative evaluation index system of agricultural technology innovation efficiency in the Yellow River Basin under the consideration of water resources constraints. Secondly, the three-stage DEA model was used to eliminate the interference of external environmental variables, and the overall and regional agricultural technology innovation efficiency of the Yellow River Basin during 2011–2020 was measured with the data of prefecture-level cities under the constraint of water resources. Finally, from the perspective of the whole and the region, the spatio-temporal dynamic evolution law is analyzed and evaluated. The results show that: on the whole, the agricultural technology innovation efficiency in the Yellow River Basin is good and rising in a wave trend, the adjusted pure technology efficiency increases, while the scale efficiency decreases. From the regional perspective, although there is regional heterogeneity, the overall development trend is good, and the lower Yellow River has the highest efficiency, followed by the upper reaches and the middle reaches. From the perspective of the change law, the spatio-temporal evolution distribution shows a multi-polarization trend, and the different regions in the upper, middle and lower reaches show great differences. Therefore, promoting the innovation of water-saving technology and the integration of agricultural science and technology, promoting the integration of production, study and research, and strengthening the regional linkage mechanism are helpful to improve the competitiveness of agricultural science and technology and achieve sustainable agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin.

The Extent to Which the Available Water Resources in Upper Egypt Can Be Affected by Climate Change

Over the past two decades, rapid climate change has severely impacted people’s lives globally, affecting their safety and sustainability. Water, a vital human resource, has been severely affected, with drought and high temperatures leading to desertification, the drying up of rivers and lakes, spontaneous fires in forests, and massive floods and torrents due to melting ice and rising sea and ocean surface water levels. The expected impacts of climate change on the Nile, Egypt’s primary water source, are significant. These impacts can vary across regions, depending on factors like local climate, socio-economic dynamics, topography, and environmental nature. Upper Egypt, characterized by arid and semi-arid regions, faces water scarcity and socio-economic development challenges. Climate change exacerbates these issues, posing significant threats to the region’s ecological sustainability and socio-economic development. Therefore, it is crucial to address these impacts to ensure the Nile’s continued vitality and sustainability. The study aims to analyze the climate change data over the past few decades, analyze its characteristics, and model its effects on Upper Egypt’s water sources. The study expected a big decrease in the water resources of the Nile. While what is currently occurring in terms of fluctuating rainfall rates between scarcity and severity contradicts the results of those studies, that is the best evidence of the need for further research and studies to obtain more reliable and consistent results with the reality that it may help decision-makers to develop scenarios to manage climate change effectively, preventing or reducing negative effects, and finding suitable alternatives. Studies predict a 10% decrease in Nile revenue at Aswan High Dam Lake by 2095, with some predicting a 30% increase. This lack of credibility underscores the need for more comprehensive studies.

Agricultural drought-driven mechanism of coupled climate and human activities in the karst basin of southern China.

Timely and accurate agricultural drought monitoring and drought-driven mechanism analysis in karst basins in the context of global warming are highly important for drought disaster monitoring and sustainable ecological development in a basin. In this study, based on MODIS data, meteorological and topographic data and land use data from 2001 to 2020, we used the Sen slope, the Mann-Kendall test and a geographic detector to explore the driving mechanisms of agricultural drought caused by climate change and human activities in the karst basin of southern China from 2001 to 2020. The results showed that (1) the spatial distribution of the TVDI in the karst basin in southern China has obvious regional characteristics, showing a decreasing trend from west to east. (2) According to the interannual trend of drought, the degree of drought in the South China karst basin exhibited a weakening trend over the last 20 years, with the most severe drought occurring in 2003. Regarding the seasonal change in the TVDI, drought in spring, summer and autumn exhibited a decreasing trend, while that in winter exhibited an increasing trend, and the drought intensity decreased in the following order: spring (0.58) > autumn (0.53) > summer (0.5) > winter (0.48). (3) Single-factor detection the results showed that rainfall, temperature and elevation were the main factors driving aridification in the study area; multifactor coupling (mean) drove drought in descending order: rainfall (q = 0.424) > temperature (q = 0.340) > elevation (q = 0.219) > land use (q = 0.188) > population density (q = 0.061) > slope (q = 0.057). Therefore, revealing the mechanism of agricultural drought in karst basins through the study of this paper has important theoretical significance and provides technical guidance for drought relief in karst areas.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Regulation Services Value at the Plot Scale

The value of ecosystem regulation services (ERSV) is a crucial aspect of gross ecosystem product (GEP). Understanding and mastering the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of ERSV is essential for the efficient management of regional ecosystems. This study proposes an ERSV accounting model at the plot scale and uses the barycentric analysis method, the optimal parameters-based geographical detector model (OPGD), and the constraint line extraction method to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, main driving factors, and constraint rules of ERSV in Yunyang District, Hubei Province in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021. The results show that (1) In the temporal dimension, the overall ERSV of the district increased by CNY 1.664 billion from 2016 to 2021, with an increase rate of 3.68%. The contribution values of climate regulation function and water retention function to ERSV was significant. (2) In the spatial dimension, the ERSV was high in the north and south and low in the middle, with high-value areas mainly located in woodland and wetland areas. The center of gravity of the ERSV increase shifted to the southwest by 12,455.42 m, while the center of gravity of the reduction shifted to the southwest by 3582.79 m from 2016 to 2021. (3) The interaction of any two driving factors had greater explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of ERSV than that of a single driving factor, and all of them showed nonlinear or double factor enhancement characteristics. The human active index (HAI) and construction land proportion (CLP) were the leading anthropogenic factors, while the land surface temperature (LST) and NDVI were the leading natural factors. (4) The ERSV could maintain a high and stable value output when the HAI was less than 0.3, CLP was less than 15%, LST was between 18 and 22 °C, and NDVI was greater than 0.5. These results can guide the practices of ecology, production, and life in Yunyang District and contribute to the high quality and sustainable development of the regional ecology and economy.

Air Pollution, Physical Exercise, and Physical Health: An Analysis Based on Data from the China General Social Survey

This study aims to investigate the influence of air pollution and physical exercise on residents’ health using data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) 2018. The research is based on the Grossman Health Production Function and employs the ordered logit model to analyze the relationship between air pollution, physical exercise, and residents’ health. We find that among the Chinese population aged 18 and above, air pollution negatively affects residents’ physical health, whereas physical exercise has a significantly positive effect. Introducing gender-stratified and urban–rural stratified models, the research reveals that the negative effects of air pollution on residents’ health vary among different groups. On one hand, men and residents living in urban areas will bear heavier health damages due to air pollution. On the other hand, physical exercise positively affect the health of both men and women, whether in rural or urban areas. Additionally, age and higher income are associated with better physical health, whereas education does not show a significant impact. Based on these findings, a series of policy recommendations have been proposed to comprehensively and systematically promote ecological governance and sustainable development. The government should strengthen environmental regulations, reduce residents’ exposure to air pollution risks, improve the equality of basic public services, invest in rural sports infrastructure, promote healthy lifestyles, and provide personalized health guidance through health education and mobile health services. Moreover, when formulating policies, the government should consider the specific needs of different groups to ensure the fairness and sustainability of the policies.

Grid Model of Energy Consumption Using Random Forest by Integrating Data on the Nighttime Light, Population, and Urban Impervious Surface (2000–2020) in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area

Energy consumption is an important indicator for measuring economic development and is closely related to the atmospheric environment. As a demonstration zone for China’s high-quality development, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area imposes higher requirements on ecological environment and sustainable development. Therefore, accurate data on energy consumption is crucial for high-quality green development. However, the statistical data on local energy consumption in China is insufficient, and the lack of data is severe, which hinders the analysis of energy consumption at the metropolitan level and the precise implementation of energy policies. Nighttime light data have been widely used in the inversion of energy consumption, but they can only reflect socio-economic activities at night with certain limitations. In this study, a random forest model was developed to estimate metropolitan-level energy consumption in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2020 based on nighttime light data, population data, and urban impervious surface data. The estimation results show that our model shows good performance with an R2 greater than 0.9783 and MAPE less than 9%. A long time series dataset from 2000 to 2020 on energy consumption distribution at a resolution of 500 m in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area was built using our model with a top-down weight allocation method. The spatial and temporal dynamics of energy consumption in the Greater Bay Area were assessed at both the metropolitan and grid levels. The results show a significant increase in energy consumption in the Greater Bay Area with a clear clustering, and approximately 90% of energy consumption is concentrated in 22% of the area. This study established an energy consumption estimation model that comprehensively considers population, urban distribution, and nighttime light data, which effectively solves the problem of missing statistical data and accurately reflects the spatial distribution of energy consumption of the whole Bay Area. This study provides a reference for spatial pattern analysis and refined urban management and energy allocation for regions lacking statistical data on energy consumption.