Sustainable Development Scenario Research Articles

New land-use change scenarios for Brazil: Refining global SSPs with a regional spatially-explicit allocation model.

The future of land use and cover change in Brazil, particularly due to deforestation and forest restoration processes, is critical for the future of global climate and biodiversity, given the richness of its five biomes. These changes in Brazil depend on the interlink between global factors due to its role as one of the main exporters of commodities globally and the national to local institutional, socioeconomic, and biophysical contexts. Aiming to develop scenarios that consider the balance between global (e.g., GDP growth, population growth, per capita consumption of agricultural products, international trade policies, and climatic conditions) and local factors (e.g., land use, agrarian structure, agricultural suitability, protected areas, distance to roads, and other infrastructure projects), a new set of land-use change scenarios for Brazil were developed that aligned with the global structure Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) developed by the global change research community. The narratives of the new scenarios align with SSP1/RCP 1.9 (Sustainable development scenario), SSP2/RCP 4.5 (Middle of the road scenario), and SSP3/RCP 7.0 (Strong inequality scenario). The scenarios were developed by combining the LuccME spatially explicit land change allocation modeling framework and the INLAND surface model to incorporate the climatic variables in water deficit. Based on detailed biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors for each biome in Brazil, we have created spatially explicit scenarios until 2050, considering the following classes: forest vegetation, grassland vegetation, planted pasture, agriculture, a mosaic of small land uses, and forestry. The results aim to detail global models regionally. They could be used regionally to support decision-making and enrich the global analysis.

Повышение эффективности функционирования малоинтенсивных линий: постановка задачи и математические модели

Purpose: The article proposes a solution of the problem of functioning of low-intensity lines. The provisions of the strategies for the development of railway transport for various planning horizons are considered in the context of improving the efficiency of the operation of low-intensity lines. The mechanism of assessment on the set of indicators and stages of life cycle of the lines has been defined. The scenarios of sustainable development of low-intensity lines depending on life cycle phase are formed. The mechanism for the evaluation and current stimulation of low-intensity lines has been developed to maintain optimal values of key parameters. The features of the functioning of low-intensity lines on Russian railways are determined in terms of high social significance for population and strategic importance for the country and the correlation of the size of traffic in the regions with the country economic development. Mathematical formulation of the problem of effective functioning of low-intensity lines based on its decomposition is proposed to determine the stages of the life cycle. The model of managing the interaction of intense and low-intensity lines has been improved by means of fuzzy cognitive modeling methods. An enlarged fuzzy cognitive map for the control of intense and low-intensity lines is presented. Control concepts that have a significant impact on the control object are defined. Methods: Methods of analysis and synthesis, system theory, mathematical modeling are applied. Results: A solution for the problem of increasing the efficiency of the operation of low-intensity lines in modern conditions from the standpoint of loosely-structured systems is proposed. Practical significance: Mathematical formulation of the problem of low-intensity line functioning is presented which is solved by determining the stages of the life cycle and the model for managing the interaction between intense and low-intensity lines based on fuzzy cognitive modeling for practical application to existing low-intensity lines.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the global transportation of crude oil: Current status and mitigation potential

AbstractGlobal crude‐oil transportation contributes a significant portion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the marine transportation sector. In this work, we first compile a detailed country‐level global crude‐oil transportation network in 2018 and estimate that the direct and well‐to‐hull GHG emissions related to crude transportation were 97 and 109 million metric tons, respectively. Combining with the country‐specific crude recovery GHG intensities, the consumption‐based well‐to‐country‐gate crude‐oil GHG intensities are derived for individual countries, ranging from 2.99 to 27.32 g CO2eq/MJ, with a global crude‐volume‐weighted average of 8.67 g CO2eq/MJ. We then project the global crude transportation emissions at the regional level in 2050 under a static (no change) scenario (based on current ship energy efficiency) and a sustainable‐development (SD) scenario (based on the International Energy Agency's projections of ship energy efficiency and penetration of alternative marine fuels). Results show that the global well‐to‐hull GHG emissions related to crude transportation would be 82 and 59 million metric tons in 2050 in the static and SD scenarios, respectively. To further evaluate the impact of potential fuel‐switching on decarbonizing the crude oil transportation sector, we estimate the GHG emissions for 20 fuel/production options in 2050. We find that, in comparison to the static scenario, ∼50% reduction in global well‐to‐hull GHG emissions from crude transportation could be achieved under the SD scenario if green ammonia further replaces conventional ammonia. The methodology developed here can be applied to other commodities to estimate the emissions associated with their global marine transportation and to evaluate the potential emission mitigation options.

Justification of points and scenarios for the development of rural and settlement communities in Ukraine (on the example of Luhansk region)

Purpose. The aim of the article is to determine, using the example of the Luhansk region, modern trends in the life of rural and settlement communities in Ukraine and to substantiate the starting points and scenarios for their socio-economic development.
 Methodology / approach. The methodology of cognition and presentation of material consists in modern dialectics using a set of specific methods. In particular, the method of systemic-structural analysis is used to reveal the systemic content of the reform of local self-government and determine its role in ensuring sustainable development of Ukraine. The factor analysis method was used to identify the factors of community development. Economic-and-mathematical methods are applied in the systematization of the empirical material collected by the authors of the modern development of communities in Ukraine and the Luhansk region.
 Results. On the example of the Luhansk region, the content of the determining factors in the development of rural and settlement communities of the country has been identified and disclosed. The priority scientific and practical tasks of identifying points and justifying scenarios for sustainable socio-economic development of rural and settlement communities in Ukraine have been established.
 Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, the multidirectional factors of the modern development of rural and settlement communities in Ukraine, in particular the Luhansk region, have been systematized; general trends in the development of the country’s communities have been identified, highlighting both their positive and negative manifestations.
 Practical value / implications. The practical value lies in the substantiation of the initial applied base for the development of long-term plans for the development of rural and settlement communities. The materials of the article will be used in the context of providing consulting assistance to the heads of local self-government bodies and activists of the united territorial communities of the Luhansk region in order to develop an effective and transparent management system, its orientation towards achieving the goals of sustainable socio-economic development of rural areas.

The Evolution Pattern and Simulation of Land Use in the Beijing Municipal Administrative Center (Tongzhou District)

Beijing Municipal Administrative Center (Beijing MC) in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing's central urban area, and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scientific understanding of the pattern of land use evolution in the region. This paper analyzes the pattern of land use evolution in Tongzhou District over the past 40 years, from 1980 to 2020. According to the historical evolutionary characteristics of land use and urban development planning goals, combined with the driving factors of cultural tourism development, the Future Land-use Simulation (FLUS) model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Beijing MC (Tongzhou District) in 2035 under three scenarios of urbanization acceleration, deceleration and sustainable development. The results show three major trends. (1) Beijing MC (Tongzhou District) is dominated by urban development and construction. During the high-speed urbanization stage from 1980 to 2010, the urban expansion pattern of “along the Sixth Ring Road and along the Grand Canal” was formed. During the low-speed urbanization stage from 2010 to 2020, the land distribution was stable, and Tongzhou District formed a pattern of urban-rural differentiation and land intensification from northwest to southeast. As a typical area of Tongzhou District's urbanization, Beijing MC has the same characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution as Tongzhou as a whole. (2) By 2035, there are significant differences in land use among the three scenarios with respect to the magnitude of change and spatial distribution. The area and distribution of ecological land under the urban sustainable development scenario are optimal, which is conducive to the realization of sustainable urban development. In analyzing the degree of conformity with the three Beijing MC zoning plans, the prediction simulation under the sustainable development scenario is highly consistent with the land use of the “Beijing Municipal Administrative Center Regulatory Detailed Planning (Block Level) (2016–2035)” (hereinafter referred to as “Planning”) issued by the municipal government. However, there are certain deviations between the simulation predictions in the cultural tourism function area and the livable living scenery area and the corresponding “Planning” expectations. During the urban construction process, the internal ecological land area still needs to be increased. (3) Tongzhou District may lack a close connection between the urban and rural areas in the southeast. Potential risks such as the imbalance in the development of northern and southern townships require further attention in the development process. The prediction and simulation results of the model can provide certain data and methodological support for the construction of a harmonious and livable city in Beijing MC (Tongzhou District).

Sustainability of Water Resources in Shandong Province Based on a System Dynamics Model of Water–Economy–Society for the Lower Yellow River

The sustainability of water resources is a common issue for all human beings. In order to solve the water resource shortage problem in the lower Yellow River region of China, this paper uses a system dynamics approach from the perspective of a water–society–economy coupled model for the sustainable utilization of water resources in the lower Yellow River region in Shandong province. The model was validated using the water quantity, economic, and demographic statistics of nine prefecture-level cities in Shandong province from 2011 to 2020. Based on this model, three analysis scenarios were set up. The sustainability of water resources in the lower Yellow River region of Shandong province was analyzed by integrating and regulating indicators in the coupled model. The research shows that, with the liberalization of the population policy, water shortages will become critical. However, by appropriately reducing the water consumed for economic needs, water deficiency can be resolved. According to the forecast of scenario analysis, scenario 3 (the Sustainable development scenario) was chosen as the optimum solution. Assuming that the growth rate of agricultural and industrial production is controlled to reduce water consumption, the water deficiency rate of Shandong province will decrease year by year, and eventually the water shortage situation will gradually improve from 2022.

The International Law of Energy of Offshore Carbon Capture and Storage: The Rotterdam Nucleus Project case study

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 infers that the total CO2 emissions would need to fall by around 45% from 2010 levels by 2030. The general sustainable development scenario suggests that change in energy demand will uphold an extensive usage of renewable energy and clean energy technologies. This paper focuses on the Rotterdam Nucleus Project and how it can contribute to large-scale CO2 transportation from the Port of Rotterdam to CO2 storage with capacity within 20 km of the Dutch coast. The Project is a model for establishing a European CCS infrastructure in the North Sea, targeting a gateway transferring CO2 from source to sink. It envisions taking part in the subsequent EU CO2 Project of Common Interest (PCI), facilitating financial support from the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF). In the first section, this paper analyses the ad hoc approach governing the implementation of the Rotterdam Nucleus, including the relevant regulatory framework at both national and local levels and its investment arrangements alongside the EU Commission. The following section stresses the Project's foundational approach and how inter-national law assists the global governance of offshore CCS transportation.

Livestock water and land productivity in Kenya and their implications for future resource use

Population growth and rising affluence increase the demand for agricultural commodities. Associated growth in production increases dependency on natural resources in countries that attempt to meet part or all of the new demand locally. This study assesses the impact of changing meat and milk production on natural resource use in Kenya under three plausible scenarios of socio-economic development, namely Business-As-Usual (BAU), Sustainable Development (SDP) and Kenya Vision 2030 (V2030) scenarios. The IMPACT model is used to estimate projected cattle, sheep, goats and camel production parameters for meat and milk. The BAU and SDP represent standard scenarios for Kenya of a global economic model, IMPACT, while V2030 incorporates in the model features specific to Kenya's medium-term national development plan. We use calculations of water footprint and land footprint as resource use indicators to quantify the anticipated appropriation of water and land resources for meat and milk production and trade by 2040. Though camel dairy production numbers increase the most by quadrupling between 2005 and 2040, it is cattle dairy production that significantly determined gains in production between the scenarios. Productivity gains under the SDP scenario does not match the investments made thereby leading to only slightly better values for water and land productivity than those achieved under the BAU scenario. Relative to the BAU scenario, improvement in land productivity under the V2030 scenario is the most dramatic for shoat milk production in the arid and semi-arid systems but the least marked for cattle milk production in the humid system. By quantifying water and land productivity across heterogenous production systems, our findings can aid decision-makers in Kenya and other developing countries to understand the implications of strategies aimed at increasing domestic agricultural and livestock production on water and land resources both locally and through trade with other countries.

Deep learning projects future warming-induced vegetation growth changes under SSP scenarios

Climate warming has been projected to enhance vegetation growth more strongly in higher latitudes than in lower latitudes, but different projections show distinct regional differences. By employing big data analysis (deep learning), we established gridded, global-scale, climate-driven vegetation growth models to project future changes in vegetation growth under SSP scenarios. We projected no substantial trends of vegetation growth change under the sustainable development scenario (SSP1-1.9) by the end of the 21st century. However, the increase of vegetation growth driven by climate warming shows distinct regional variability under the scenario representing high carbon emissions and severe warming (SSP5-8.5), especially in Northeast Asia where growth could increase by (6.00% ± 4.21%). This may be attributed to the high temperature sensitivities of the deciduous needleleaf forests and permanent wetlands in these regions. When the temperature sensitivity that is defined as permutation importance in deep learning is greater than 0.05, the increase in vegetation growth will be more prominent. In addition, an extreme temperature increase across grasslands, as well as changing land-use management in northern China may also influence the vegetation growth in the future. The results suggest that the sustainable development scenario can maintain stable vegetation growth, and it may be a reliable way to mitigate global warming due to potential climate feedbacks driven by vegetation changes in boreal regions. Deciduous needleleaf forests will be a centre of greening in the future, and it should become the focus of future vegetation dynamics modelling studies and projections.

Using scenario modelling for adapting to urbanization and water scarcity: towards a sustainable city in semi-arid areas

Sustainable development on a global scale has been hindered by urbanization and water scarcity, but the greatest threat is from decision-makers ignoring these challenges, particularly in developing countries. In addition, urbanization is spreading at an alarming rate across the globe, affecting the environment and society in profound ways. This study reviews previous studies that examined future scenarios of urban areas under the challenges of rapid population growth, urban sprawl and water scarcity, in order to improve supported decision-making (SDM). Scholars expected that the rapid development of the urbanization scenario would cause resource sustainability to continually be threatened as a result of excessive use of natural resources. In contrast, a sustainable development scenario is an ambitious plan that relies on optimal land use, which views land as a limited and non-renewable resource. In consequence, estimating these threats together could be crucial for planning sustainable strategies for the long term. In light of this review, the SDM tool could be improved by combining the cellular automata model, water evolution and planning model coupled with geographic information systems, remote sensing and criteria analytic hierarchical process modelling. Urban planners could optimize, simulate and visualize the dynamic processes of land-use change and urban water, using them to overcome critical conditions.

Organizational and economic mechanism of strategic management of sustainability of supply chains of industrial enterprises

The article deepens the theoretical and methodological foundations of the organization of strategic management of industrial enterprises` supply chains sustainability. The evolution of the concept of supply chain management is considered from the standpoint of the institutional theory, as well as the influencing of various factors on its development and integration with the concept of sustainable development is determined. The conceptual and categorical apparatus for researching supply chain sustainability management from the standpoint of network theory and stakeholder theory has been developed. On the example of a metallurgical enterprise, a system of indicators of sustainable development is proposed and strategic guidelines for three scenarios of sustainable development of an enterprise are determined. These three scenarios take into account the conditions for future development, which are defined as pessimistic, optimistic and such as to ensure balanced sustainable development. Calculations of strategic scenarios for sustainable development were based on the determination of threshold values of indicators for three components: economic (including the quality of corporate governance), environmental and social. Strategic benchmarks have been developed for each of the scenarios. In the course of the study, it was found that it is inappropriate to calculate the integral sustainability index for the entire supply chain as a whole. Such a calculation has no informative value and is technically practically impossible due to the incomparability of indicators of different business units included in the supply chain. A conclusion is drawn from this that the sustainability of each individual business unit in the chain should be assessed separately. An organizational and economic mechanism for managing the sustainability of the supply chain in a hybrid form is proposed, which provides for a combination of decentralized development of sustainable development strategies by individual enterprises and organizations within the supply chain and centralized coordination and monitoring of the implementation of strategies by a focal company based on a digital platform. The concept of this mechanism is based on a network approach and provides for the organization of collaboration of participants in the supply chain with the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders. The directions in which various digital technologies can be applied in managing the sustainability of the supply chain are considered, among which blockchain technology is recognized as the most suitable for use at the moment.

A Bayesian game of resource exploitation in hinterland regions: modelling scenarios for sustainable development

A Bayesian game of resource exploitation in hinterland regions: modelling scenarios for sustainable development

An overview of ecological vulnerability: a bibliometric analysis based on the Web of Science database.

Ecological vulnerability has become one of the hot issues of ecology and environmental science under global change and sustainable development scenarios. However, no study quantitatively analyzes the global scientific performance and hot research areas in this field by adopting the bibliometric method. Based on 935 pieces of literature retrieved from the Web of Science database, we comprehensively analyzed the research on ecological vulnerability in terms of growth trend, research content, publication journal and country, and co-occurrence network of keywords. The results showed that research on ecological vulnerability had experienced rapid growth since 2000, while ecological vulnerability research at the World Heritage sites was still embryonic. The top two productive countries in ecological vulnerability research were America and China, and the top two productive journals were Ecological Indicators and Regional Environmental Change. Study on ecological vulnerability was mainly classified as empirical evaluation and regional synthesis, whereas theoretical research is rare. Based on the summary of the main progress and achievements in ecological vulnerability research, we proposed five scientific issues that remain to be resolved in the field of ecological vulnerability. Overall, this study could shed light on a comprehensive and systematic understanding of ecological vulnerability and provide directions for future research on ecological vulnerability in a rapidly changing world.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use for Sustainable Development Goals

Considering the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) released in 2015, this article constructed an SDG-oriented land use simulation (SDG-LUS) model incorporating SDG-oriented system dynamics (SDG-SD) and SDG-oriented cellular automata (SDG-CA), and utilized it to simulate land use changes in the Yangtze river delta region. The SDG-SD model was developed to predict the land use demands from 2021 to 2030 under the constraints of multiple SDG indicators, including economic indicators (SDG2.3.1 and SDG8.1.1), social indicators (SDG3.c.1, SDG4.1.2, SDG5.b.1, SDG9.C.1, SDG 9.1.2, SDG11.2.1, and SDG11.7.1) and environmental indicators (SDG6.3.1 and SDG11.6.2). Four sustainable development scenarios, including reference, economic development, environmental protection and social progress scenarios, were established by utilizing the index and indicator board of the SDG indicators in 2030. Then, the SDG-CA model was applied to spatialize and simulate the land use evolution from 2021 to 2030 under different sustainable development scenarios. The results validate the applicability of the SDG-LUS model, and confirm that scenario simulations of different sustainability levels are conducive to supporting the formulation of sustainable land use plans.

Сценарии трансформации: декарбонизация российской экономики

The paper presents a forecast of the structure of power sector in Russia in 2050 under various scenarios for the transformation of the energy system and the possible prices for greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions in the power sector by 2050 can be 32.7% lower compared to 2020 in sustainable development scenario (SDS) with an average CO2 price of $27/t over the period. In this scenario, the capacity structure will shift in favor of an increase in the share of nuclear and gas generation with a reduction in coal generation. In the scenario of zero greenhouse gas emissions (Net Zero), the price of CO2 is 37% higher compared to the scenario of sustainable development ($37/t). The implementation of the latter scenario will reduce emissions in the power industry by 40% compared to 2020. The article gives recommendations for changing the economic policy that would accelerate the decarbonization of the Russian economy and identifi es key risks of decarbonization.

Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways

Non-technical summary Models are increasingly used to inform the transformation of human–Earth systems towards a sustainable future, aligned with the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We argue that a greater diversity of models ought to be used for sustainability analysis to better address complexity and uncertainty. We articulate the steps to model global change socioeconomic and climatic scenarios with new models. Through these steps, we generate new scenario projections using a human–Earth system dynamics model. Our modelling brings new insights about the sensitivity of sustainability trends to future uncertainty and their alignment with or divergence from previous model-based scenario projections. Technical summary The future uncertainty and complexity of alternative socioeconomic and climatic scenarios challenge the model-based analysis of sustainable development. Obtaining robust insights requires a systematic processing of uncertainty and complexity not only in input assumptions, but also in the diversity of model structures that simulates the multisectoral dynamics of human and Earth system interactions. Here, we implement the global change scenarios, that is, the shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, in a feedback-rich, integrated assessment model (IAM) of human–Earth system dynamics, called FeliX, to serve two aims: (1) to provide modellers with well-defined steps for the adoption of established scenarios in new IAMs and (2) to explore the impacts of model uncertainty and its structural complexity on the projection of these scenarios for sustainable development. Our modelling shows internally consistent scenario storylines across sectors, yet with quantitatively different realisations of these scenarios compared to other IAMs due to the new model's structural complexity. The results highlight the importance of enumerating global change scenarios and their uncertainty exploration with a diversity of models of different input assumptions and structures to capture a wider variety of future possibilities and sustainability indicators. Social media summary New study highlights the importance of global change scenario analysis with new, SDG-focused IAMs.

Sustainable Development at the Level of Industrial Areas: a Project Strategy Approach

The article deals with the study of methodological approaches to project management in solving problems of developing scientific and theoretical approaches to justify the use of project approach as a necessary and effective tool to strengthen the implementation of strategic scenarios for sustainable development of industrial regions in Ukraine. Research methodology. The research uses the approaches of general scientific methods for research, analysis, forecasting and project management, methods of determining criteria and quantifying the processes and stages of industrial, post-industrial and neo-industrial modernization. Findings. There was researched the development of scientific and theoretical approaches to the formation and justification of the project approach as a necessary and effective tool for strengthening the implementation of strategic scenarios for sustainable development of industrial regions in Ukraine. The application of the project approach as a methodological tool for implementing the processes of strategic scenarios formation for entering the trajectory of sustainable development of industrial regions in Ukraine is conceptually justified. It is determined that project and program management can be used in project management related to sustainable development of industrial areas. Practical significance of the findings. The developed conceptual approaches to using the project approach in the formation of strategic scenarios for sustainable development of industrial regions based on organizational, scientific and applied aspects of project management can be used for projects (project programs) transition to sustain= able development of regions focused on providing conditions that will allow the region have the necessary resources to ensure decent living conditions and increase the competitiveness of the economy. Keywords project, project approach, management, sustainable development of industrial regions, strategizing, sustainable development strategies, strategic goal.

Cross-scale trade-off analysis for sustainable development: linking future demand for animal source foods and ecosystem services provision to the SDGs

Dietary transition towards higher consumption of animal source foods (ASF) associated with higher incomes across low and middle-income countries could have negative impacts on environmental systems and their potential in the long run to provide services necessary for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this article, we integrate economic, land use allocation, and biophysical models to investigate trade-offs between the five ecosystem services and their contributions to various SDGs associated with agricultural expansion to meet future demand for ASF, using Tanzania as a case study. Our results show that under the scenario of sustainable socio-economic development, between 2010 and 2030 in Tanzania, per capita income grows by 169% and the share of population at risk of hunger declines from 34.8% to 23%. These changes can be associated on a macro-level with positive contributions to achievement of SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). To satisfy feed demand for increased livestock production domestically, an increase by 21.4% of biomass production as compared to 2010 is needed. Analysis of alternative scenarios for meeting this new demand shows potential threats on a landscape level to achieving numerous SDGs and more generally to attaining sustainable food systems. Ecosystem-based contributions primarily decline to SDGs: SDG 3 (Health), SDG 6 (Clean Water), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities), SDG 13 (Climate) and SDG 15 (Terrestrial Life). We find that higher crop productivity and redesign of agro-ecosystems to increase on-farm tree cover could significantly limit these losses. Alternatively, the growing demand for ASF could be satisfied with imports, which would allow for reducing the trade-offs locally. However, this would result in at least partially only displacing ecosystem service losses to the exporting countries.

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Conducive to Severe Haze in Eastern China Have Shifted Under Climate Change

AbstractRegional atmospheric circulation patterns affect haze pollution and they change in the warming climate. Here, the characteristics of atmospheric circulation anomalies conducive to extreme haze occurrence in China and their historical and future trends are examined based on surface observations, reanalysis data, aerosol source tagging technique, and multimodel intercomparison results. December 2016 and 2017 are identified as the worst months of haze pollution over northern and southern China, featuring weakened and strengthened prevailing winds, respectively. During 1980–2019, the atmospheric pattern similar to December 2016 decreased, while that similar to 2017 increased, suggesting that severe haze formation mechanism in eastern China has been shifting from causes of local accumulation to regional transport processes. In the future, climate change under the sustainable and intermediate development scenarios are the ideal paths to reduce haze in China, while high social vulnerability and radiative forcing would cause a severe damage to the environment.

Technological and non-technological trends in fashion eco-innovations

PurposeThe fashion industry is diverse and demands a high amount of resources and labor for its operation. It has powerful tools that can positively impact the environment and society as a whole. In this sense, it becomes necessary for fashion to adopt sustainable strategies quickly. One way would be the adoption of eco-innovations by companies in the sector. The objective of this research is to identify the main eco-innovation initiatives carried out by companies in the fashion sector and to verify what the trend is in the sector in relation to the types of eco-innovation, whether technological or non-technological in nature.Design/methodology/approachTo meet the objective, the sector’s sustainability reports are analyzed based on the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) initiative. The method used to treat the data is content analysis. The authors chose to use the GRI-G4 and GRI-Standards versions of the GRI structure, as they include topics relevant to its stakeholders. The analysis based on these criteria considers 18 reports prepared by four companies (Cia Hering, Grupo Malwee, Dudalina and Lojas Renner).FindingsFrom the data analysis, it was noticed that eco-innovations of technological trends prevail in Brazilian fashion, in the first place, those of process (24.56%), followed by eco-innovations of product (10.53%). The pressure exerted by internal or external stakeholders will be fueled by the current scenario of sustainable development, positively influencing the adoption of eco-innovation. This characteristic can be attributed to the fashion sector, since technological eco-innovations overlap with non-technological ones in all the years that make up the analysis.Research limitations/implicationsAs limitations of this research, it is worth mentioning the availability of GRIs in the fashion sector. Even considering it a step forward, noting that larger companies support the adoption of these reports, it is important to highlight that only four companies make up the available database (Cia Hering, Lojas Renner, Dudalina and Malwee). From the adoption of the dissemination of sustainability reports by other organizations, the base could be expanded.Practical implicationsFrom this study, practical questions emerge that can contribute to managers and companies in the Brazilian fashion sector. Initially, the focus on eco-innovations is predominantly related to the technological component, with an emphasis on process eco-innovations. In this sense, business actions seek to resolve the accusations normally attributed to the sector, such as the adoption of unsustainable practices. For example, in cotton production, firms use large amounts of pesticides and water, despite the sector being accused of not taking proper responsibility regarding sustainability related issues.Social implicationsInvestment in eco-innovations indicates a positive attitude and change resulting from pressure and the need to return the market to society’s demands for more sustainable production technologies with less environmental impact.Originality/valueThe originality of the study lies in the systematization of a GRI analysis model applied to measure eco-innovations in fashion. Through the applied methodology, it is possible to emphasize that eco-innovations of technological trend prevail in the industry, first in processes and then in product development.