Sustainability of Water Resources in Shandong Province Based on a System Dynamics Model of Water–Economy–Society for the Lower Yellow River

Abstract

The sustainability of water resources is a common issue for all human beings. In order to solve the water resource shortage problem in the lower Yellow River region of China, this paper uses a system dynamics approach from the perspective of a water–society–economy coupled model for the sustainable utilization of water resources in the lower Yellow River region in Shandong province. The model was validated using the water quantity, economic, and demographic statistics of nine prefecture-level cities in Shandong province from 2011 to 2020. Based on this model, three analysis scenarios were set up. The sustainability of water resources in the lower Yellow River region of Shandong province was analyzed by integrating and regulating indicators in the coupled model. The research shows that, with the liberalization of the population policy, water shortages will become critical. However, by appropriately reducing the water consumed for economic needs, water deficiency can be resolved. According to the forecast of scenario analysis, scenario 3 (the Sustainable development scenario) was chosen as the optimum solution. Assuming that the growth rate of agricultural and industrial production is controlled to reduce water consumption, the water deficiency rate of Shandong province will decrease year by year, and eventually the water shortage situation will gradually improve from 2022.