Sustainable Adaptation Strategies Research Articles

Small Farmers’ Agricultural Practices and Adaptation Strategies to Perceived Soil Changes in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy

Farmers have a pivotal responsibility in soil conservation: they can either preserve or deplete it through their choices. The responsibility of agriculture increases when practised in delicate ecosystems, such as lagoonal ones. The Venetian Lagoon islands, which are increasingly subjected to natural and anthropic subsidence, occasional flooding events (acqua alta), and eustatic sea level rise, are constantly exposed to erosive processes that challenge farmers to play with their adaptive capability. This research was carried out on the islands of Sant’Erasmo and Vignole, the most representative of island agriculture in the Venetian Lagoon: they almost exclusively rely on agriculture, which is non-existent in the other islands. This empirical research aimed to explore farmers’ agricultural practices, perceptions of soil changes, and how they adapt to them. It was fundamental for this study that the field research involved direct human contact with farmers (through semi-structured interviews) for data collection and using qualitative methods for data analysis, integrating scientific and non-scientific forms of knowledge and actors. The final purpose was to demonstrate the sustainability (valued on the potential depletion or regeneration capability) of agricultural practices and adaptation strategies on a theoretical basis. Despite their polycultural landscape (maintained by low-input farming systems), escaped from the predominant landscape oversimplification, Sant’Erasmo and Vignole are also subjected to unsustainable agricultural practices, including heavy mechanisation and synthetic inputs. Coupled with natural soil salinity that is exacerbated by increasing drought periods, these practices can contribute to soil degradation and increased salinity. The reported adaptation strategies, such as zeroed, reduced, or more conscious use of machines, were guided by the need to reduce the negative impact of soil changes on productivity. Our research revealed some of them as sustainable and others as unsustainable (such as increasing irrigation to contrast soil salinity). Participatory action research is needed to support farmers in designing effective sustainable agricultural practices and adaptation strategies.

Climate Information as A Support for Optimizing Agricultural Public Policies: A Comparative Analysis Among Peasant Communities in The Middle Couffo (Benin) And Kpékplémé In the Middle Mono in The South-East of Togo

Responses to climate change often take the form of strengthening the resilience and adaptive capacities of communities vulnerable to hazards. To this end, climate information is very crucial and must constitute an essential element of local public agricultural policies. In this perspective, how do local communities participate in the popularization of climate information in order to establish sustainable strategies for climate resilience? This involves analyzing the role of local communities in agricultural extension through the dissemination of climate information. The methodological approach taken is based on the observation of the agrarian landscape and the modification of the finage, the techniques of resilience of the peasant communities and semi-structured interviews carried out with 221 targeted actors in three agricultural communes of Moyen-Couffo in Benin. and in Kpékplémé and Aklakou in southern Togo. The analytical approach oriented from the perspective of local agricultural public policies has made it possible to bring climate information closer to a competence of local communities. This article, based on a corpus of resilience itineraries, sheds light on the role of local authorities in anticipating and adapting to climate change. It appears from the cases studied that the promotion of sustainable adaptation strategies depends on a local public agricultural policy supported by planning and agricultural innovations based on climate information and their popularization by decentralized territorial entities.

Sustainable tourism in a changing climate: Strategies for management, adaptation, and resilience

This review examines the complex relationship between tourism and climate change, focusing on global strategies for sustainable management and adaptation. By synthesizing recent literature, case studies, and policy analyses, the paper provides an in-depth exploration of the effects of climate change on tourism destinations and the methods employed to mitigate these impacts. Findings reveal that climate change is significantly altering tourism patterns, with rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea-level rise posing substantial challenges to popular destinations and local communities. Sustainable management practices, such as reducing carbon footprints, integrating sustainability into operations, and adopting renewable energy sources, are essential to addressing these impacts. Successful adaptation strategies include enhancing resilience through robust climate action plans, while mitigation efforts focus on reducing the sector's environmental footprint through innovative technologies and sustainable practices. Policy frameworks and technological innovations are shown to be critical in advancing sustainable tourism, with policies fostering collaborative efforts and technological advancements supporting efficient adaptation measures. This review concludes that a multifaceted approach encompassing sustainable management practices, adaptation strategies, and strong policy support is vital to addressing climate change in tourism. The study highlights the need for ongoing research and innovation to strengthen sustainability and resilience in response to evolving climate challenges.

Zied Haj-Amor, Dong-Gill Kim, and Salem Bouri: Sustainable agriculture adaptation strategies to address climate change by 2050

Zied Haj-Amor, Dong-Gill Kim, and Salem Bouri: Sustainable agriculture adaptation strategies to address climate change by 2050

Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health Among Vulnerable Groups: A Systematic Literature Review

Objective: This study aims to explore the impact of climate change on mental health among vulnerable groups, including low-income populations, Indigenous communities, children, women, and the elderly, to highlight their unique vulnerabilities and mental health outcomes. This aligns with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), addressing the need for climate resilience and mental health equity. Theoretical Framework: The research is grounded in social vulnerability theory, emphasizing how structural inequalities exacerbate the impact of climate change on mental health. The framework integrates psychological theories of eco-anxiety and solastalgia, which explain the mental distress caused by environmental changes. Method: A systematic literature review was conducted using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) methodology. This involved a comprehensive search of academic databases, screening studies, and qualitatively synthesizing data from 35 peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2023. Results and Discussion: Findings reveal that climate change exacerbates mental health issues such as anxiety, depression, and PTSD among vulnerable groups due to their limited adaptive capacity and exposure to climate-related hazards. Vulnerable communities, including Indigenous groups and low-income populations, experience heightened psychological impacts such as eco-anxiety and solastalgia. The results underscore the importance of integrating mental health considerations into climate adaptation policies and developing targeted interventions to enhance resilience among these populations. This study also supports global efforts toward achieving SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). Research Implication: The study suggests the need for comprehensive and equitable mental health strategies that prioritize vulnerable groups in climate change adaptation planning. Policymakers must consider social equity and community-based approaches to mitigate the mental health impacts of climate change. Originality/Value: This review uniquely addresses the intersection of climate change and mental health within marginalized populations, emphasizing the need for mental health integration in climate adaptation frameworks. The study highlights the underexplored psychological dimensions of climate change, providing valuable insights for developing inclusive and sustainable adaptation strategies. sustainability

Probabilistic reconstruction of sea-level changes and their causes since 1900

Abstract. Coastal communities around the world are increasingly exposed to extreme events that have been exacerbated by rising sea levels. Sustainable adaptation strategies to cope with the associated threats require a comprehensive understanding of past and possible future changes. Yet, many coastlines lack accurate long-term sea-level observations. Here, we introduce a novel probabilistic near-global reconstruction of relative sea-level changes and their causes over the period from 1900 to 2021. The reconstruction is based on tide gauge records and incorporates prior knowledge about physical processes from ancillary observations and geophysical model outputs, allowing us, for the first time, to resolve individual processes and their uncertainties. We demonstrate good agreement between the reconstruction and satellite altimetry and tide gauges (if local vertical land motion is considered). Validation against steric height estimates based on independent temperature and salinity observations over their overlapping periods shows moderate to good agreement in terms of variability, though with larger reconstructed trends in three out of six regions. The linear long-term trend in the resulting global-mean sea-level (GMSL) record is 1.5 ± 0.19 mm yr−1 since 1900, a value consistent with central estimates from the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Multidecadal trends in GMSL have varied; for instance, there were enhanced rates in the 1930s and near-zero rates in the 1960s, although a persistent acceleration (0.08 ± 0.04 mm yr−2) has occurred since then. As a result, most recent rates have exceeded 4 mm yr−1 since 2019. The largest regional rates (>10 mm yr−1) over the same period have been detected in coastal areas near western boundary currents and the larger tropical Indo-Pacific region. Barystatic mass changes due to ice-melt and terrestrial-water-storage variations have dominated the sea-level acceleration at global scales, but sterodynamic processes are the most crucial factor locally, particularly at low latitudes and away from major melt sources. These results demonstrate that the new reconstruction provides valuable insights into historical sea-level change and its contributing causes, complementing observational records in areas where they are sparse or absent. The Kalman smoother sea-level reconstruction dataset can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10621070 (Dangendorf, 2024).

Unravelling the complexities of wetland agriculture, climate change, and coping mechanisms: an integrative review using economics and satellite approaches

AbstractThe flash flood-affected wetland region of Bangladesh contributes around 20–25% of the annual Boro rice production, which is vital for local, regional, and national food security. Considering the crucial significance of Boro rice and the growing susceptibility of wetland regions to flash floods and climate change, it is imperative to investigate viable approaches and adaptation methods to reduce the adverse effects on agricultural output. This review study investigated the relationships between wetlands, climate change, and coping mechanisms while incorporating economic and advanced satellite remote sensing approaches. Through a comprehensive analysis of flash flood impacts on Boro rice yield using satellite remote sensing technique, the findings revealed significant adverse effects on the vegetative reproduction of Boro rice in the study areas. Notably, flash floods in 2017 exhibited more pronounced impacts than other years (2018 and 2019), underscoring the urgency for effective and integrated coping strategies to ensure sustainable agricultural production. Consequently, the study identified and discussed probable coping strategies, including changes in cropping patterns through land suitability assessment, evaluating vulnerable areas through vulnerability mapping, analyzing yield forecasting models, and introducing a damage-based crop insurance approach to mitigate farmers’ losses. These probable adaptation strategies will offer viable solutions to address the recurrent issue of flash floods and safeguard sustainable agricultural production in the wetland areas of Bangladesh. Considering the current situation, climate change issues and probable alternative coping strategies are crucial for developing a resilient agricultural system in light of flash floods, ensuring the long-term viability of wetland agriculture. The study outcomes provide valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in wetland agricultural planning and management to develop proper and long-term sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Feeling the heat: Extreme temperatures and housing prices in China

AbstractClimate change‐driven extreme heat events pose a major threat to urban expansion globally. This study evaluates the relationship between extreme heat and housing prices utilizing panel data from Chinese cities between 2009 and 2019. Our findings indicate a significant negative correlation between housing prices and extreme temperatures. Specifically, we observe a 0.1% reduction in housing prices for each additional day per year with temperatures surpassing 35°C. This research evaluates two primary mechanisms underpinning this finding. Firstly, our analysis demonstrates a decline in labor inflows to cities experiencing extreme heat, with a particularly significant effect on the influx of high‐skilled workers. In addition, existing residents in these hotter urban environments exhibit reduced home‐buying intentions and reduced proclivity for long‐term residency, coupled with higher living costs. Secondly, our findings indicate that extreme heat acts as a deterrent to firm entry, thereby further suppressing housing demand. This study contributes valuable empirical insights into the capitalization of climate risk in housing markets, with a specific emphasis on the effect of extreme heat. Moreover, it highlights the urgent necessity for the development and implementation of sustainable adaptation strategies to reduce the negative effects of evolving climatic conditions.

Relationality in Indigenous Climate Change Education Research: A Learning Journey from Indigenous Communities in Bangladesh

Abstract This article explores my relational learning reflections with the Laitu Khyeng Indigenous community in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), Bangladesh, focusing on Indigenous perspectives on climate change education. Implementing a relational theoretical framework, I share my reflections on relational learning in this research as part of being accountable to the Indigenous community. Through exploring Indigenous land-based climate change research, five central themes emerge Indigenous land rights, relationship with the environment, community-led relationality as collaboration, intergenerational relational knowledge and relationality as ethical reciprocity. The findings explore the intrinsic connection between Indigenous communities and their ancestral territories, emphasising the significance of upholding Indigenous sovereignty over land for sustainable adaptation to climate change. In this article, I highlight the importance of relational learning as a form of education, fostering resilience rooted in preserving traditional practices and spaces. Relationality with the environment is central to Indigenous climate education, promoting understanding and reciprocity with the land. In my learning, I learned that community dynamics and collaborative learning are essential for effective climate education, emphasising collective action and diverse perspectives. In relational learning, inter-generational knowledge transmission ensures the preservation and sharing of traditional land-based knowledge across generations, forming the foundation for sustainable adaptation strategies. Ethical engagement and reciprocity guide research interactions, emphasising mutual respect and cultural sensitivity. By centring Indigenous perspectives and knowledge systems, this study advocates for community-led approaches to climate change education, fostering resilience and environmental stewardship within Indigenous communities.

City-scale modelling of road thermal and hydrologic characteristics and failure mechanisms: Case study of Montreal

This study focuses on understanding and quantifying projected changes to road thermal and hydrologic characteristics that are associated with road failure, for the City of Montreal, Canada. To this end, city-scale modelling using a land surface model with realistic representation of urban regions, including roads, enabled by the super-resolution of 250 m, for the current 2001–2020 and future 2041–2060 periods are used. Analysis for the cold season suggests potential reduction in failures associated with thermal characteristics such as daily freeze-thaw and partial thaws, with a projected decrease of 12.5% and 2 %, respectively. Higher potential for hydrologic characteristics-related failures are likely, given projected increases in road/surface runoff in the 12–15% range. For the warm season, projected increases in thermal characteristics such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures (4–4.5 °C), and hydrological characteristics (25 %), suggest increased potential for road failure from rutting and drainage issues. Analysis performed separately for the highways and local roads reveal important spatial variability of the considered characteristics and associated failures, which can be helpful in prioritizing road sections for detailed analysis and in the development of sustainable adaptation strategies for the Montreal road network and enhancing the city's resilience to future climate change.

Spatial flows of ecosystem services under future climate and land-use changes

Increasing global pressure on natural capital requires sustainable solutions to ensure long-term provision of ecosystem services (ES) which have complex flow dynamics. Although the importance of ES flows has been increasingly recognized during the past years, little is known about how they will be affected by future climate and land-use changes. Here, we integrated ES flows into a scenario-based assessment framework, and evaluated it by clarifying the local and distant effects of ES flows in the Black River basin, China. The spatiotemporal variations of ES flows were investigated by considering different land policies and climate scenarios, and the drivers of ES flow variations were explored. We found increasing inter-regional ES flows toward 2100. Compared to land-use change, the intra-regional flows were more sensitive to climate change, with greater shifts of flow size and synergistic areas identified under a moderate climatic forcing scenario with sustainable management strategies. Precipitation directly affected water retention flow, yet affected flood mitigation flow both directly and indirectly through changing vegetation cover, which was the major driver of soil retention flow. Biodiversity mediated the positive effects of precipitation and vegetation cover on soil retention flow. Our study highlights the importance of embracing the spatiotemporal features of ES flows in sustainable transboundary management and adaptation strategies.

Urban Flood Mitigation by Implementing LIDs (Case Study: Bendung Watershed in Palembang City)

Urban areas continue to be affected by flooding, necessitating more sustainable and effective adaptation strategies and mitigation initiatives. This study investigates the potential flood reduction capability achieved through implementing various green infrastructures known as low-impact development (LID). The Bendung watershed, in the center of Palembang City, with a total area of 18.37 km2, is used as the study area to evaluate the performance of LID infrastructure in reducing flood parameters, including total runoff volume, peak runoff discharge, runoff coefficient, and flooding area. Five types of LID infrastructure were simulated, namely bio-retention cells, rain gardens, permeable pavements, rain barrels, and recharge wells. The flood simulations were performed using four design storms with 2-, 5-, 10-, and 25-year return periods. Hydrologic and hydraulic modeling and simulations were carried out using PCSWMM Professional 2D, and the results were integrated with ArcMap to map the flood inundation. The results of this study demonstrate that with only 9.81 percent of the area occupied by LIDs, a flood reduction of more than 30% can be achieved. In addition, implementing LIDs can help restore the watershed’s hydrological condition to its natural state, as indicated by the decrease in the runoff coefficient. Thus, implementing LIDs in a sustainable urban drainage system must be widely promoted in many urban areas, especially in developed countries like Indonesia. This study can be used as a reference for the local government and authorities to create policies and regulations to establish sustainable flood mitigation measures in Palembang City.

Determinants of adaptive capacities and coping strategies to climate change related extreme events by forest dependent communities in Malawi

Climate change related extreme events present significant threats against the sustainability of forest-based livelihoods. Adaptive capacities and coping strategies of forest residents in Malawi towards climate change and extreme weather events were analyzed. Purposive sampling was used to select key informants while random sampling was employed to sample household heads or older member of the household (n = 422) involved in the household survey. Questionnaire administration, interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect the primary data. Cross tabulation of frequencies, Pearson Chi-square tests, and Binary logistic regression tests were used for the data analysis. Results showed that forest residents have always employed different adaptation and coping strategies during different climate extreme events over the years. Winter cropping (Dimba) around streams and wells, scored 66 % in Mchinji whilst the shifting of crop planting periods to coincide with rainy seasons topped the list in Mangochi (55 %) against droughts and erratic rainfall, respectively. Household satisfaction with water supply facilities and communication services dictated the respondents’ choice of the coping strategies employed. Furthermore, household human capital enhanced the adaptive capacity of forest residents. In conclusion, institutional services, social networks and human capital resources are important in devising climate coping and adaptation strategies hence recommending for more sustainable and transformative adaptation and coping strategies that can withstand projected climate change and weather-related events.

Understanding the relationship between 2D/3D variables and land surface temperature in plain and mountainous cities: Relative importance and interaction effects

The escalating prevalence of extreme heat events has intensified scholarly interest in understanding the nexus between urban built environments and extreme heat. This study focuses on the central urban areas of Chengdu and Chongqing, sizable Chinese cities that share a common building climate zone but are divergent in topography and landform (i.e., plain versus mountainous). Leveraging spatial regression, XGBoost, and Shapley additive explanation techniques, we scrutinize the spatial effects, relative importance, and interactive impacts of two-dimensional and three-dimensional (2D/3D) built environments on land surface temperature (LST). The results indicate that: (1) 2D/3D variables exert significant effects on LST, with the cooling effect of the 3D green view index outweighing that of the 2D normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). (2) The overall relative importance of 3D variables on LST is greater than that of 2D variables in both Chengdu and Chongqing. (3) The 3D variables have particularly strong impacts on LST in mountainous cities, which are 6.21 % higher than those in plain cities. (4) 2D/3D variables interactively influence LST. For instance, LST drops in Chengdu when floor area ratio (FAR) is above 1.5 and NDVI is below 0.53, as well as when FAR is less than 1 and NDVI is greater than 0.53. Our findings provide support and recommendations for location-specific sustainable urban development and effective heat adaptation strategies.

The smallholder coffee farmer's livelihood adaptation strategies in Bengkulu, Indonesia

PurposeThis study aims to reconstruct how smallholder farmers implement livelihood adaptation strategies to survive and escape poverty, thereby mitigating or eliminating potential livelihood risks by utilizing their available assets.Design/methodology/approachThis research employed a qualitative approach. For the collection of primary data, the researcher conducted observations and in-depth interviews and engaged with the lives of smallholder farmers during the data collection period.FindingsAmong the various livelihood adaptation strategies, only migration and profit-sharing strategies enable smallholder farmers to escape poverty. However, migration is an unsustainable adaptation strategy. When farmers move to new locations, they often resort to slash-and-burn methods for clearing land, which can lead to forest degradation and deforestation. Profit sharing is a sustainable livelihood adaptation strategy that falls into a different category. This approach can lift farmers out of poverty, increase their income and have no negative environmental impact. Other adaptation strategies include adjustments to traditional agriculture, both on and off-farm diversification, involving the family in income generation, reducing farming costs, practicing frugality in post-harvest processes, converting land from coffee cultivation to other crops and borrowing money and selling owned assets. Smallholder farmers implement these strategies to survive the existing economic conditions.Originality/valueThe profit-sharing strategy was a novel livelihood adaptation approach that previous studies had yet to uncover at the research site. In this strategy, farmers assume the roles of both managers and laborers simultaneously during farming, while toke (the capital owners) play the role of farming funders. The generated profit is then shared between farmers and toke based on the agreement established at the outset of their collaboration.

Climate-smart agriculture in Ethiopia: Adoption of multiple crop production practices as a sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies

Given that Ethiopian agriculture is seriously threatened by climate change, understanding the factors that influencing the adoption of various climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices supports policy interventions to reduce negative effects of climate change. Therefore, this study was aimed at exploring determinants of the adoption of multiple CSA practices by focusing on crop production. This study used data from 271 randomly selected smallholder farmers from the Gamo, Gofa and Konso zones of Southern Ethiopia, and a multivariate probit (MVP) model was used to analyze the data. Crop diversification, irrigation, drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop varieties, integrated soil fertility management, and integrated pest management were prominent CSA practices to improve crop productivity, increase adaptivity capacity, and mitigate the adverse climate change effects in the study area. The study's findings indicate that the adoption of CSA practices varies considerably between farmers and agroecology. The MVP simulation result reveals that farmers’ adoption decisions for CSA practices are highly interdependent, indicating that farmers adopt two or more adaptation and mitigation strategies as mutual CSA practices. Furthermore, the regression result reveals that the education level of farmers, extension contact, accessing climate variability information, access to irrigation facilities, and social group participation were similar underlying factors that affected the adoption decision of CSA practices. By providing climate change information, respective organizations should encourage farmers to utilize available alternate irrigation access and climate-resilient crop varieties. In addition, strengthening social norms through agricultural cooperatives and training on the application of integrated pest management and soil fertility management are suggested to spur farmers' CSA uptake.

Gendered perceptions and adaptations to climate change in Ghana: what factors influence the choice of an adaptation strategy?

Climate change poses a significant threat to various sectors, including agriculture, affecting men and women unevenly. Although gender-based perceptions of climate change have been studied, there remains a gap in understanding how these perceptions influence the adoption of adaptation strategies among men and women smallholder farmers in the production of leguminous crops in sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigated the gender differences in the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies among bean and cowpea farmers in Ghana. The findings revealed that socioeconomic and institutional factors significantly influenced the choice of adaptation strategies, with notable differences between men and women. Higher levels of education, farming experience, marital status, access to credit, and education determined the choice of adaptation strategies. On the other hand, women farmers, despite having lower levels of formal education, showed a higher utilization of extension services, possibly due to targeted efforts to reach out to more women farmers. Larger households were less likely to adopt mixed cropping and changing cropping patterns, while married individuals were less likely to use crop rotation. Training and access to credit significantly increased the likelihood of adopting crop rotation, changing cropping patterns, and using improved seeds. The study also found that [f]armers perceptions of the impacts of dry spells and delayed onset of rains influenced the use of climate change adaptation strategies. Furthermore, farmers who participated in climate change planning were more likely to use diverse adaptation strategies, underscoring the importance of a locally focused, inclusive planning process. However, gender differences were observed in the determinants of the use of these strategies. For instance, while access to extension services was found to be more influential for women, men’s decisions were more influenced by their marital status, access to credit, and education. Policy makers and local institutions need to encourage and facilitate farmers’ involvement in climate change planning processes to enable designing of effective, context-relevant, inclusive, and sustainable climate change adaptation strategies. Distinct differences in the factors underlying the use of adaptation strategies by men and women demand creation of and implementation of gender-sensitive programs that effectively reach and benefit both women and women.

Predicting the distribution of critically endangered tree species Karomia gigas under climate change in Tanzania

Global climate change and anthropogenic pressure are increasingly adding stress to critically endangered plant species. Unfortunately, the responses of these species are largely unknown in the African tropics to a great extent partly because of limited research. To implement sustainable conservation or adaptation strategy, it is necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on both the ecosystems and species. Here we present an assessment of the current and future habitat suitability distribution of Karomia gigas (Faden) Verdc (Lamiaceae), a critically endangered tree species by using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. The future predictions of Karomi gigas were done for the years 2050 (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) and 2070 (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). Future and current predictions are made using bioclimatic variables with a spatial resolution of 30 s. This study was carried out in Litipo and Mitundumbea forest reserves found in the coastal forests of Lindi, Tanzania. The area under receiver operating curve (AUC) value confirmed a predictive accuracy based on 45 occurrence points. The Jackknife test was used to assess the contribution of environmental variables in the model. The temperature annual range (Bio7) showed the highest predictive contribution and useful information to predict the current and future potential distributions of K. gigas in the forest reserves. In conclusion, the study shows that the habitat suitability distribution for K. gigas in Tanzania will increase significantly between 2050 and 2070. Therefore, this study showed that modeling outputs using MaxEnt can be helpful for habitat conservation and species restoration in East African coastal forests.

Block Wise Trend Analysis and Extreme Events in Raipur District, India

The study was conducted in four blocks viz. Abhanpur, Arang, Raipur, and Tilda of Raipur district, using IMD gridded rainfall and maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperature data from 1951 to 2019. Trend analysis was performed with three non-parametric methods (Mann Kendall, Spearman's Rho, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA)) and one parametric test (Linear Regression analysis) for annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. Extreme weather events were studied using Weather Cock and RClimdex software, calculating sixteen climatic indices. The data was divided into 1951-1986 and 1987-2019. The results demonstrated a significant decreasing trend (p<0.01) in rainfall by 10 to 15%. Maximum temperature had a significant increasing trend and minimum temperature significantly decreased (p<0.01) as per ITA. Other methods indicated non-significant decreasing trends for minimum temperature. ITA proved more effective in trend detection. The value of all indices differed before and after 1986, indicating noticeable climate changes. Increasing Warmer days, colder nights, and an expanding diurnal temperature range were observed, accompanied by increased heat wave incidence. Moderate drought episodes and all severe drought occurrences increased after 1986. The values of maximum and minimum temperatures reached new peaks. These findings highlight significant climate changes in the study area, emphasizing the need for sustainable climate management and adaptation strategies.

Agricultural drought severity in NE Italy: Variability, bias, and future scenarios

This study investigated the variability of agricultural drought severity, as depicted by vegetation indices, and the bias in identifying drought events when considering a stationary vs nonstationary climate reference. The work leveraged gridded climate data (NCEP CFSv2, CHIRPS 1981–2022), soil properties (OpenLandMap), satellite imagery (Sentinel2/Landsat, 2000–2022), and future climate projections (NEX-GDDP, 2050) together with local knowledge of selected farms, to augment drought monitoring techniques and identify potential issues for agriculture. For the study domain, significant differences were observed when comparing drought characteristics using stationary and nonstationary drought indexes, with biases being not ubiquitous in either space or time of year. When developing sustainable drought mitigation and adaptation strategies, decision-makers should carefully address this uncertainty to avoid a possible underestimation of drought magnitude. Results showed a drought increase (∼50%) by the mid and late twenty-first century. Projection of future climate highlighted an even more significant impact (∼80%) with a wide variability of risk across the domain. As drought impact was also related to soil organic carbon (SOC), our results suggest that improving SOC content could be a sustainable strategy for enhancing soil drought resilience, especially in areas commonly characterized by low concentrations of organic carbon and nutrients. The analysis highlighted that drought impacts were also modulated by investment in irrigation infrastructure and irrigation efficiency. Researchers and land managers could apply the proposed analysis design to address historical, current and future indicators of vegetation conditions within irrigated regions. By providing spatio-temporal information on the patterns of drought impacts and their bias, this study supports identifying priority regions for targeted drought risk reduction and adaptation options, including water resources and soil management sustainability criteria, to move towards more resilient agricultural systems.