City-scale modelling of road thermal and hydrologic characteristics and failure mechanisms: Case study of Montreal

Abstract

This study focuses on understanding and quantifying projected changes to road thermal and hydrologic characteristics that are associated with road failure, for the City of Montreal, Canada. To this end, city-scale modelling using a land surface model with realistic representation of urban regions, including roads, enabled by the super-resolution of 250 m, for the current 2001–2020 and future 2041–2060 periods are used. Analysis for the cold season suggests potential reduction in failures associated with thermal characteristics such as daily freeze-thaw and partial thaws, with a projected decrease of 12.5% and 2 %, respectively. Higher potential for hydrologic characteristics-related failures are likely, given projected increases in road/surface runoff in the 12–15% range. For the warm season, projected increases in thermal characteristics such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures (4–4.5 °C), and hydrological characteristics (25 %), suggest increased potential for road failure from rutting and drainage issues. Analysis performed separately for the highways and local roads reveal important spatial variability of the considered characteristics and associated failures, which can be helpful in prioritizing road sections for detailed analysis and in the development of sustainable adaptation strategies for the Montreal road network and enhancing the city's resilience to future climate change.