Bottom-up assessment of air quality management strategies in Vijayawada, India: Emissions inventory, atmospheric capacity, and policy scenarios

Abstract

A bottom-up approach evaluates air quality management strategies in Vijayawada, India, a rapidly urbanizing city facing declining air quality. Detailed emission inventories and dispersion modeling assess pollutant concentrations (PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx) under various policy scenarios for 2025 and 2030. Business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios reveal the inadequacy of current regulations for PM, SO2, and NOx control. While BS-VI standards effectively reduced NOx emissions from vehicles, overall trends indicate a diminishing atmospheric capacity to assimilate pollutants. Alternative scenarios (ALTs) incorporating sector-specific controls project emission reductions (12–15 % PM10, 19–24 % PM2.5, 24–48 % SO2, 19–32 % NOx) and are expected to maintain pollutant levels below national ambient air quality standards. This integrated approach offers valuable insights for policymakers to develop sustainable air quality strategies aligned with SDGs. The study emphasises the need to consider potential trade-offs between environmental benefits and resource demands, such as increased electricity demand for electric vehicles (SDG 7) and land use competition from urban greening (SDG 11). This study aids in identifying strategies that maximise environmental benefits while minimising trade-offs, fostering sustainable urban development. The research's novelty lies in its integration of scenario-based analysis with atmospheric capacity evaluation, providing a robust framework for air quality management in rapidly urbanising regions.