Sustainable Adaptation Strategies Research Articles

Climate change, food security and environmental securi-ty : A conflict inclination assessment of Karamoja region of Uganda

The study investigates the consequences of climate change on food security and environmental security in the Karamoja region of Uganda. It relates climate change to the conflict, insecurity and crises that have been witnessed in the region in the past years.It examines the implications of the change in the grazing pattern of the pastoralists and herdsmen in the time of recurrent drought and dry spells in Karamoja on the security of the region and other communities in Uganda and beyond. It relates the interplay of climate change, environmental security and food security to human security in Karamoja region.It also through focus group discussion (FGD) conducted in Kaabong District of the Karamoja region, identifies the presumed impacts of climate change on the environment and the people alongside its socio-economic implications. In the end, the study suggests proactive environmental security programmes in the Karamoja region which are expected to encourage sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies in its communities, which will encourage its regional peace, security and stability.

Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA

While the Midwestern USA ranks among the world’s most important corn-soybean production regions, the area also produces a variety of high-value specialty crops. These crops are an important component of the region’s rural economy with an estimated value of $1.8 billion in 2012. More profitable per-acre than many row crops, specialty crops also have higher production-related risks. They are generally more sensitive to climatic stressors and require more comprehensive management compared to traditional row crops. Temperature and precipitation fluctuations across the Midwest directly impact specialty crop production quantity and quality and indirectly influence the timing of crucial farm operations and the economic impacts of pests, weeds, and diseases. Increasingly variable weather and climate change pose a serious threat to specialty crop production in the Midwest. In this article, we assess how climate variability and observed climatic trends are impacting Midwestern specialty crop production using USDA Risk Management Agency data. In addition, we review current trends in grower perceptions of risks associated with a changing climate and assess sustainable adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that weather-induced losses vary by state with excessive moisture resulting in the highest total number of claims across all Midwestern states followed by freeze and drought events. Overall, specialty crop growers are aware of the increased production risk under a changing climate and have identified the need for crop-specific weather, production, and financial risk management tools and increased crop insurance coverage.

Using Government Resettlement Projects as a Sustainable Adaptation Strategy for Climate Change

Given that increasing migration has been addressed as a major consequence of climate change, a growing number of scholars suggest that the planned relocation of people or Government Resettlement Projects (GRPs) should be included in climate change adaptation. This paper reviews the status of climate change and environmentally induced migration in China, and then presents an empirical case study in Shangnan County in northwest China, where a specific GRP called the ‘Massive Southern Shaanxi Migration Program’ (MSSMP) has been initiated in response to climate change-related impacts. The results showed that the MSSMP helped local residents to adapt better climate change by reducing exposures to risk, enabling mobility, providing financial incentives, raising living standards, and improving emotional status. Furthermore, the MSSMP added additional benefits for migrants compared with traditional GRPs by respecting voluntary participation, preparing for future risks, and reducing social isolation via a short relocation distance. However, GRPs could also be seen as a maladaptation to climate change because they disproportionately increase the burden on the most vulnerable community members, such as those who are financially disadvantaged, new migrants, and people who are left behind. The paper further suggests that the GRPs should be designed by involving multiple adaptation strategies as supplements for GRPs, and broadening the political schemes to consider the special needs of vulnerable groups. This study contributes to an understanding of the roles of GRPs in sustainable climate change adaptation, thereby facilitating the design, organization, and implication of future similar programs.

Impact of climate change on runoff in Lake Urmia basin, Iran

Investigation of the impact of climate change on water resources is very necessary in dry and arid regions. In the first part of this paper, the climate model Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used for downscaling climate data including rainfall, solar radiation, and minimum and maximum temperatures. Two different case studies including Aji-Chay and Mahabad-Chay River basins as sub-basins of Lake Urmia in the northwest part of Iran were considered. The results indicated that the LARS-WG successfully downscaled the climatic variables. By application of different emission scenarios (i.e., A1B, A2, and B1), an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in temperature were predicted for both the basins over future time periods. In the second part of this paper, gene expression programming (GEP) was applied for simulating runoff of the basins in the future time periods including 2020, 2055, and 2090. The input combination including rainfall, solar radiation, and minimum and maximum temperatures in current and prior time was selected as the best input combination with highest predictive power for runoff prediction. The results showed that the peak discharge will decrease by 50 and 55.9% in 2090 comparing with the baseline period for the Aji-Chay and Mahabad-Chay basins, respectively. The results indicated that the sustainable adaptation strategies are necessary for these basins for protection of water resources in future.

Mangrove Vegetation Dynamics of the Tanbi Wetland National Park in The Gambia

Changes in mangrove vegetation have been identified as important indicators of environmental deterioration. The mangroves of the Tanbi Wetland National Park (TWNP) connect the Atlantic coast with the estuary of the River Gambia and as such, play an invaluable role in the agriculture, tourism and fisheries sectors of The Gambia. Our research seeks to understand the long-term changes in the mangrove vegetation in order to strengthen the formulation of sustainable alternative livelihoods and adaptation strategies to climate change. Mangrove vegetation dynamics was assessed by remote sensing, using decadal Landsat images covering 1973 - 2012. Physicochemical parameters were analyzed during the rainy and dry seasons for correlation with climate data. Our findings indicate that the long-term changes in salinity (24.5 and 35.8ppt) and water temperature (27.6℃ and 30.2℃) during the rainy and dry seasons respectively are retarding mangrove growth. Mangrove vegetation cover declined by 6%, while grassland increased by 56.4%. This research concludes that long-term hyper-salinity is the cause for the stunted vegetation and lack of mangrove rejuvenation in TWNP. We propose that specialized replanting systems such as the use of saplings be adopted instead of the conventional use of propagules. Alternative livelihoods also need to be diversified to support coastal communities.

Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, West Africa

Climate simulations in West Africa have been attributed with large uncertainties. Global climate projections are not consistent with changes in observations at the regional or local level of the Niger basin, making management of hydrological projects in the basin uncertain. This study evaluates the potential of using the quantile mapping bias correction to improve the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) outputs for use in hydrological impact studies. Rainfall and temperature projections from 8 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach. Impacts of climate change was evaluated with bias corrected rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The IHACRES hydrological model was adapted to the Niger basin and used to simulate impacts of climate change on discharge under present and future conditions. Bias correction with quantile mapping significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall and temperature simulations compared to observations. The mean of six efficiency coefficients used for monthly rainfall comparisons of 8 GCMs to the observed ranged from 0.69 to 0.91 and 0.84 to 0.96 before and after bias correction, respectively. The range of the standard deviations of the efficiency coefficients among the 8 GCMs rainfall data were significantly reduced from 0.05–0.14 (before bias correction) to 0.01–0.03 (after bias correction). Increasing annual rainfall, temperature, PET and river discharge were projected for most of the GCMs used in this study under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These results will help improving projections and contribute to the development of sustainable climate change adaptation strategies.

Glacier Monitoring and Capacity Building: Important Ingredients for Sustainable Mountain Development

Glacier observation data from major mountain regions of the world are key to improving our understanding of glacier changes: they deliver fundamental baseline information for climatological, hydrological, and hazard assessments. In many mountain ecosystems, as well as in the adjacent lowlands, glaciers play a crucial role in freshwater provision and regulation. This article first presents the state of the art on glacier monitoring and related strategies within the framework of the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G). Both in situ measurements of changes in glacier mass, volume, and length as well as remotely sensed data on glacier extents and changes over entire mountain ranges provide clear indications of climate change. Based on experiences from capacity-building activities undertaken in the Tropical Andes and Central Asia over the past years, we also review the state of the art on institutional capacity in these regions and make further recommendations for sustainable mountain development. The examples from Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Kyrgyzstan demonstrate that a sound understanding of measurement techniques and of the purpose of measurements is necessary for successful glacier monitoring. In addition, establishing durable institutions, capacity-building programs, and related funding is necessary to ensure that glacier monitoring is sustainable and maintained in the long term. Therefore, strengthening regional cooperation, collaborating with local scientists and institutions, and enhancing knowledge sharing and dialogue are envisaged within the GTN-G. Finally, glacier monitoring enhances the resilience of the populations that depend on water resources from glacierized mountains or that are affected by hazards related to glacier changes. We therefore suggest that glacier monitoring be included in the development of sustainable adaptation strategies in regions with glaciated mountains.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling. Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using ‘cool photovoltaics’.

DYKE MONITORIN BY THE MEANS OF PERSISTENT SCATTERING INTERFEROMETRY AT THE COAST OF NORTHERN GERMANY

Abstract. 40 percent of the world's population are presently living in coastal areas or along the main rivers. Taking into account that the vulnerability of these areas is increasing due to sea-level rise and coastal hazards such as storm surges or extreme rainfall events accompanied with floods, the importance of safety structures such as dykes is increasing as well. Hence, a spatial distributed dyke monitoring should be part of a sustainable adaptation strategy. Due to increasing amount of SAR-data from various satellites with high spatial and temporal coverage, the means of SAR-interferometry could be an essential tool to ensure this kind of required monitoring. Given this prospect, Persistent Scattering Interferometry (PSI) will be a very suitable monitoring technique for dyke structures to identify dyke movement with the accuracy of few millimetres. This procedure focuses on pixels that show a stable scattering behaviour in a sequence of multiple SAR-scenes. In opposition to ground-measurements, the spatial coverage of this technique provides comparable results for different parts of the dyke; furthermore weak segments with particular high movements could be identified in advance. This could prevent future dyke crevasses and help to reduce risks in high-populated areas. This paper attempts to describe the potential of the PSI technique for a spatial distributed dyke monitoring at the coast in northern Germany. 21 ERS-2 scenes and 16 Envisat ASAR scenes were analysed. Those Scenes cover an area of a sea shore dyke including a flood regulation barrage and results point out the potential for this technique to monitor dyke structures. Even though the observed dyke doesn't show any significant deformation rates, the two datasets show the same signal for the whole dyke.

DYKE MONITORIN BY THE MEANS OF PERSISTENT SCATTERING INTERFEROMETRY AT THE COAST OF NORTHERN GERMANY

40 percent of the world's population are presently living in coastal areas or along the main rivers. Taking into account that the vulnerability of these areas is increasing due to sea-level rise and coastal hazards such as storm surges or extreme rainfall events accompanied with floods, the importance of safety structures such as dykes is increasing as well. Hence, a spatial distributed dyke monitoring should be part of a sustainable adaptation strategy. <br><br> Due to increasing amount of SAR-data from various satellites with high spatial and temporal coverage, the means of SAR-interferometry could be an essential tool to ensure this kind of required monitoring. Given this prospect, Persistent Scattering Interferometry (PSI) will be a very suitable monitoring technique for dyke structures to identify dyke movement with the accuracy of few millimetres. This procedure focuses on pixels that show a stable scattering behaviour in a sequence of multiple SAR-scenes. In opposition to ground-measurements, the spatial coverage of this technique provides comparable results for different parts of the dyke; furthermore weak segments with particular high movements could be identified in advance. This could prevent future dyke crevasses and help to reduce risks in high-populated areas. <br><br> This paper attempts to describe the potential of the PSI technique for a spatial distributed dyke monitoring at the coast in northern Germany. 21 ERS-2 scenes and 16 Envisat ASAR scenes were analysed. Those Scenes cover an area of a sea shore dyke including a flood regulation barrage and results point out the potential for this technique to monitor dyke structures. Even though the observed dyke doesn't show any significant deformation rates, the two datasets show the same signal for the whole dyke.

Evaluating sustainable adaptation strategies for vulnerable mega-deltas using system dynamics modelling: Rice agriculture in the Mekong Delta's An Giang Province, Vietnam

Challenging dynamics are unfolding in social-ecological systems around the globe as society attempts to mitigate and adapt to climate change while sustaining rapid local development. The IPCC's 5th assessment suggests these changing systems are susceptible to unforeseen and dangerous ‘emergent risks’. An archetypal example is the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) where the river dyke network has been heightened and extended over the last decade with the dual objectives of (1) adapting the delta's 18 million inhabitants and their livelihoods to increasingly intense river-flooding, and (2) developing rice production through a shift from double to triple-cropping. Negative impacts have been associated with this shift, particularly in relation to its exclusion of fluvial sediment deposition from the floodplain. A deficit in our understanding of the dynamics of the rice-sediment system, which involve unintuitive delays, feedbacks, and tipping points, is addressed here, using a system dynamics (SD) approach to inform sustainable adaptation strategies. Specifically, we develop and test a new SD model which simulates the dynamics between the farmers' economic system and their rice agriculture operations, and uniquely, integrates the role of fluvial sediment deposition within their dyke compartment.We use the model to explore a range of alternative rice cultivation strategies. Our results suggest that the current dominant strategy (triple-cropping) is only optimal for wealthier groups within society and over the short-term (ca. 10years post-implementation). The model suggests that the policy of opening sluice gates and leaving paddies fallow during high-flood years, in order to encourage natural sediment deposition and the nutrient replenishment it supplies, is both a more equitable and a more sustainable policy. But, even with this approach, diminished supplies of sediment-bound nutrients and the consequent need to compensate with artificial fertilisers will mean that smaller-scale farmers in the VMD are more vulnerable to accruing debt.

Climate change in semi-arid Malawi: Perceptions, adaptation strategies and water governance.

Climate change and variability are a threat to sustainable agricultural production in semi-arid areas of Malawi. Overdependence on subsistence rain-fed agriculture in these areas calls for the identification of sustainable adaptation strategies. A study was therefore conducted in Chikwawa, a semi-arid district in southern Malawi, to: (1) assess community’s perception of a changing climate against empirical evidence, (2) determine their local adaptive measures, (3) evaluate the potential of irrigated agriculture as an adaptive measure in household food security and (4) challenges over access to available water resources. The study employed focus group discussions and key informant interviews to assess people’s perceptions of climate change and variability and their desired interventions. To validate the people’s perceptions, rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2010 were analysed. A participatory complete randomised experimental design in both rain-fed and dry season–irrigated conditions was conducted to assess a maize cropping system that would improve adaptation. The study established persistent declining yields from rain-fed production in part because of perennial rainfall failure. In response, the community has shifted its focus to irrigation as an adaptation strategy, which has in turn triggered water conflicts in the community over the control of the resource. Water legislation however fails to adequately provide for rules governing sharing of water resources between various stakeholders. This article therefore recommends development of an appropriate institutional framework that forms a strong basis for equitable distribution of water for irrigation in areas most vulnerable to extreme climate events – including droughts and floods.

Smallholder agriculture and climate change adaptation in Bangladesh: questioning the technological optimism

This paper offers an in-depth sociological analysis of how the interplay of climatic factors, agricultural technologies and markets shapes smallholder livelihoods in Bangladesh to help sketch the outline for a sustainable agricultural adaptation strategy. It intends to question the technological optimism inherent in mainstream climate change policy discourse by highlighting the multiple sources of vulnerabilities of smallholder peasants in Bangladesh. Using findings from a qualitative study, it demonstrates how smallholders in Bangladesh currently experience climate change through their everyday agricultural practices, and how climate change along with the ecosystem destruction from modern farming technologies adversely affects their livelihoods. Drawing on the recent literature on sustainable adaptation, this paper argues that any agricultural adaptation strategy in Bangladesh must analyse the vulnerabilities of farming communities at the intersection of their geographically specific exposure to climatic threats, the extent of their market participation and the socioecological implications of their technology adoption. It concludes that an eventual departure from the current rice monoculture pivoted on chemical dependence and an excessive use of natural resources is the prerequisite for a sustainable agricultural adaptation.

Impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies in rural communities of Kaduna State, Nigeria

This study focused on the impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of some selected rural communities of Kaduna state, and the adaptation strategies employed by the people to ameliorate the scourge of climate change. Data for this study were obtained from a direct field study based on the result of 426 questionnaires that were administered to household heads. Descriptive statistics was used to describe the socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents. A five point Likert scale was used to determine the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies employed by the rural communities. Focus Group Discussions were also held in each Local Government Area in order to obtain in-depth information on the changing climate. The study identified decline in crop yields with a mean score (x̄) of 4.01, increased sickness (x̄ = 3.85), decrease in soil fertility (x̄ = 3.83), decline in forest resources (x̄ = 3.66) as the most significant impacts of climate change in the area; whereas use of fertilizer/animals dung (x̄ = 3.89), water harvesting (x̄ = 3.68), planting of economic trees and drought resistant crops (x̄ = 3.25) among others were the most significant and sustainable adaptation strategies adopted by the rural people. The study recommended that awareness programs on climate change challenges should be intensified, and probabilistic analysis of observed rainfall data in order to provide information about the beginning, the end and length of the rainy season, and the amount of available water during the season. Lastly, sustainable adaptation strategies employed by the rural people should be strengthened.Keywords: Adaptation, climate change, impacts, livelihood, resources, rural communities

Changements climatiques en zones nord-soudanienne et sub-sahélienne du Burkina Faso : comparaison entre savoirs paysans et connaissances scientifiques

Climate change in north-sudanian and sub-sahelian zones of Burkina Faso : Comparison between producers’ knowledge and scientific knowledge. Coherence between farmers’ knowledge about climate change and its relevance to climate trends could allow drawing up sustainable adaptation strategies. Survey carried out in north-sudanian and sub-sahelian parts of Burkina Faso allowed to collect 16 indigenous indicators of climate change and to assess their reliability in comparison to the results of analysis of 23 appropriate climate variables. Survey data collected were submitted to frequency and variance analyses to assess farmers’ perception differences between climatic zones. Climatic data were submitted to : (i) analysis of variance, (ii) tests of Pettitt and Hubert, (iii) tests of Ati et al. and Maikano, (iv) Nicholson index to determine changes noticed between periods of time 1951-1980 and 1981-2010, and during the reference period 1951-2010. We considered that indigenous knowledge and scientific one are in accordance when they do not provide contrasting information. Fourteen indicators of rainfall, four indicators of temperature and four indicators of wind speed were enumerated by producers. Local indicators perception rates (number of persons who perceived the indicators from the whole interviewees) ranged between 10 and 90 % and 22.7 % of the indicators showed significant difference (p < 0.05) of perception in both climatic zones. Eighteen (from the 23) climatic variables showed significant change (p < 0,05) in north-sudanian area versus 10 in sub-sahelian zone between periods of time 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. During the reference period of time, the 23 climatic variables showed 26 dates of rupture in north-sudanian area versus 21 in sub-sahelian zone. Rainy seasons shortened in both climatic zones. Dry season rainfall frequency and full rainy season dry spell frequency did not show major change. The application of Nicholson index showed a great interannual fluctuation of the parameters, strengthening this way the evolution of changes and ruptures detected in the series. In both climatic zones, 56 % of local indicators were in accordance with climate trends. Integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge by introducing consulting and discussing framework really participatory and functional could ensure their complementarity and then allow drawing up appropriate, consensual and sustainable adaptation actions to climate change.

Monitoring of Sea Dike Structures by the Means of Combined StaMPS Multi-temporal InSAR Approach

40 percent of the world's population is presently living in coastal areas. Taking into account that the vulnerability of these areas is increasing due to sea-level rise and coastal hazards, the importance of safety structures is increasing as well. Hence, a spatial distributed dike monitoring should be part of a sustainable adaptation strategy. Persistent Scattering Interferometry combined with the Small Baseline Subset technique will be a very suitable monitoring technique for dike structures to identify dike movement with the accuracy of few millimeters. In opposition to ground-measurements, the spatial coverage of this technique provides comparable results for different parts of the dike. This could prevent future dike crevasses and help to reduce risks in high-populated areas. This paper describes the potential of the combined StaMPS MTI technique for a spatial distributed dike monitoring at the North Sea coast in Germany. 21 ERS-2 scenes and 16 Envisat ASAR scenes were processed for two different types of dikes. On the first an adequate density of PS pixels was found to perform spatial distributed monitoring. Due to decorrelation effects of vegetation covered surfaces, no reliable statements about the dike body could be made on the second dike, still deformation processes could be detected.

Youth-Led Participatory Video as a Strategy to Enhance Inuit Youth Adaptive Capacities for Dealing with Climate Change

Rapid climatic and environmental changes experienced throughout the Canadian North are having significant impacts on the lives of Inuit, with implications for the future of the large Inuit youth population. Within the adaptation research and practitioner community, youth voices, perspectives, and involvement are essential in ensuring representative and sustainable adaptation strategies. This paper examines the potential of youth-led participatory video (PV) as a strategy to foster known protective factors that underpin the resilience of youth and their capacity to adapt to various stresses, including impacts of climate change. The work draws on a case study from the Inuit community of Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, where a two-week PV workshop was conducted with seven youth and followed by in-depth interviews with participants and community members. The findings show that PV may be a pathway to greater adaptive capacities because the process connects to known protective factors that enhance resilience of circumpolar indigenous youth. PV also shows promise as a strategy to engage youth in sharing insights and knowledge, connect generations, and involve young Inuit in planning and decision making in general.

An interactive simulation and visualization tool for flood analysis usable for practitioners

Developing strategies to mitigate or to adapt to the threats of floods is an important topic in the context of climate changes. Many of the world’s cities are endangered due to rising ocean levels and changing precipitation patterns. It is therefore crucial to develop analytical tools that allow us to evaluate the threats of floods and to investigate the influence of mitigation and adaptation measures, such as stronger dikes, adaptive spatial planning, and flood disaster plans. Up until the present, analytical tools have only been accessible to domain experts, as the involved simulation processes are complex and rely on computational and data-intensive models. Outputs of these analytical tools are presented to practitioners (i.e., policy analysts and political decision-makers) on maps or in graphical user interfaces. In practice, this output is only used in limited measure because practitioners often have different information requirements or do not trust the direct outcome. Nonetheless, literature indicates that a closer collaboration between domain experts and practitioners can ensure that the information requirements of practitioners are better aligned with the opportunities and limitations of analytical tools. The objective of our work is to present a step forward in the effort to make analytical tools in flood management accessible for practitioners to support this collaboration between domain experts and practitioners. Our system allows the user to interactively control the simulation process (addition of water sources or influence of rainfall), while a realistic visualization allows the user to mentally map the results onto the real world. We have developed several novel algorithms to present and interact with flood data. We explain the technologies, discuss their necessity alongside test cases, and introduce a user study to analyze the reactions of practitioners to our system. We conclude that, despite the complexity of flood simulation models and the size of the involved data sets, our system is accessible for practitioners of flood management so that they can carry out flood simulations together with domain experts in interactive work sessions. Therefore, this work has the potential to significantly change the decision-making process and may become an important asset in choosing sustainable flood mitigations and adaptation strategies.

Predicting the current and future suitable habitat distribution of Myristica dactyloides Gaertn. using MaxEnt model in the Eastern Ghats, India

Global biodiversity has already been altered by the climatic changes in various means like species migration, changes in habitat distribution, seasonality changes in phenology etc. In order to implement sustainable conservation or adaptation strategy, it is necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on both ecosystem and species level. Here we present an assessment on current and future habitat suitability distribution of Myristica dactyloides Gaertn. (MD), a medicinally and ecologically important tree species by using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. The future predictions were done for the year 2050 and 2070 using the bioclimatic variables having 1km spatial resolution from two different models of fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). This study was carried out in the Kolli hill, Eastern Ghats of India. The AUC values confirmed the accuracy of model prediction based on 22 occurrence points. Environmental variables’ contributions were evaluated using jackknife test. The more influencing variables will be annual temperature, annual precipitation and precipitation of wettest month. Finally, this study found that there will be a significant reduction in the habitat suitability distribution of Myristica dactyloides in the year 2050 and 2070 in the study area. Hence with the performance of the model, this study found that MaxEnt could be an effective tool for species rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation planning in the light of climate change.

Determinants of perceptions of climate change and adaptation among Turkana pastoralists in northwestern Kenya

There is a growing concern that climate variability and change, combined with other environmental, social and political pressures, may overwhelm resilience of pastoral systems if local adaptation strategies are not strengthened. Understanding pastoralists’ perception of and response to climatic change is necessary for sustainable adaptation strategies. Systematic and purposive sampling techniques were used to select 302 households in Turkana County of northwestern Kenya. Descriptive statistics and Heckman probit model were used to analyse the data obtained from the household's interviews. The results show that majority of households’ perceive rise in temperatures and rainfall variability over the past three decades. Pastoralists’ perception of climate change was significantly (p<.05) associated with gender of the household head, livestock ownership, herd size and access to extension services. Heckman's sample selectivity probit model revealed that factors influencing pastoralist's choices of climate change adaptation include gender and education level of the household head, household size, wealth in terms of livestock ownership, distance to markets, access to credit and extension services. We conclude that as a prerequisite for long-term commitment to household's climate resilience, policies and programmes should aim at improving these factors.