Surface Warming Research Articles

Identification of bacteria of the genus Vibrio in some water sources in the prefectures of Télimélé and Boké (Republic of Guinea).

For a long time, the main problem with water intended for human consumption has been health, and this problem stems from the existence of micro-organisms (bacteria, viruses, protozoa, parasites) that transmit many dangerous infections to humans. Vibrio cholerae is one of these micro-organisms. Cholera is a severe acute diarrhoeal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae, a Gram-negative bacterium that colonises warm, saline and alkaline surface waters, often in association with phytoplankton or zooplankton. The aim of this study was to identify bacteria of the Vibrio genus in the waters of the Télimélé and Boké prefectures. The study was carried out from the beginning of May to the end of September 2021. The samples were analysed in the bacteriology laboratory of the Institut de Recherche en Biologie Appliquée de Guinée (IRBAG) in Kindia, using conventional identification methods. The results of the analysis proved the existence of the bacterial strain in the water analysed. During the analyses, we encountered two types of Vibrio: parahaemolyticus with 1.28% in Télimélé and alginolyticus with 2.56% in Boké. These germs were found in wells and lakes, but Vibrio spp was not found. In addition to bacteria of the species Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio alginolyticus, we encountered two (2) other types of microorganisms: Enterococcus faecalis observed in ponds and streams and Salmonella spp. found in taps, boreholes and wells.

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Abstract. Understanding long-term committed climate change due to anthropogenic forcing is key to informing climate policies, yet these timescales are still underexplored. We present here a set of 1000-year-long abrupt stabilization simulations performed with EC-Earth3. Each simulation follows a sudden stabilization of the external forcing at the level specified by CMIP6 for historical (1990) or SSP5-8.5 scenario (2025, 2050, 2065, 2080, 2100) conditions, with a final temperature increase ranging between 1.4 and 9.6 K with respect to the pre-industrial baseline. Remarkably, the simulation stabilized at a greenhouse gas (GHG) level close to the present day (2025) exceeds the Paris Agreement goals of 1.5 and 2° warming above pre-industrial in the long term, and only the 1990 simulation leads to a stabilized climate below 1.5° warming. We first focus on the evolution of the climate response at multi-centennial timescales and its dependence on the level of forcing. We note a decrease in the magnitude of the climate feedback parameter at longer timescales. Conversely, simulations with higher forcing exhibit a larger feedback parameter (in magnitude). Subsequently, the evolution of surface warming patterns over multi-centennial timescales is studied. While the response is generally consistent across simulations, some variations, particularly in the South Pacific and at high latitudes, suggest a certain level of state or forcing dependence. The patterns of precipitation change also evolve during the stabilization runs: the drying trends found in the subtropical oceans and in Mediterranean-like hotspots in the SSP5-8.5 scenario tend to be reduced or even reversed. We finally focus on the rate of heat storage in the global ocean, which is the main driver of the climate response at multi-centennial timescales. We find that the rate of warming of the deep ocean is almost independent from the amplitude of the forcing so that most of the additional heat remains in the upper layers at high forcing. This might be due – at least partly – to a decreased ventilation of the deep ocean, caused by changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). These results highlight the importance of studying multi-centennial timescales of climate change to better understand the response of the deep ocean, which will play a crucial role in determining the final state of the climate system once GHG concentrations are stabilized.

Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

Latent Heat Flux Trend and Its Seasonal Dependence over the East China Sea Kuroshio Region

Investigating latent heat flux (LHF) variations in the western boundary current region is crucial for understanding air–sea interactions. In this study, we examine the LHF trend in the East China Sea Kuroshio Region (ECSKR) from 1959 to 2021 using atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis datasets and find that the LHF has a significant strengthening trend. This strengthening can be attributed to sea surface warming resulting from the advection of sea surface temperatures. More importantly, the LHF trend has an apparent seasonal dependence: the most substantial increasing trend in LHF is observed in spring, while the trends are weak in other seasons. Further analysis illustrates that the anomaly of air–sea humidity difference plays a pivotal role in controlling the seasonal variations in LHF trends. Specifically, as a result of the different responses of the East Asian Trough to global warming across different seasons, during spring, the East Asian Trough significantly deepens, resulting in northerly winds that facilitate the intrusion of dry and cold air into the ECSKR region. This intensifies the humidity difference between the sea and air, promoting the release of oceanic latent heat. These findings can contribute to a better understanding of the surface heat budget balance within western boundary currents.

Drivers of rare earth elements (REEs) and radionuclides in changing subarctic (Nunavik, Canada) surface waters near a mining project

The emergence of mining projects for rare earth elements (REEs) in response to rising global demand and geopolitical factors introduces environmental concerns, such as the suspected release of anthropogenic REEs to aquatic systems and the coexistence of radionuclides (U, Th). Northern regions confront heightened challenges from limited research and accelerated climate change. Drivers of REEs in surface waters (including George and Koroc rivers, their tributaries, and thermokarst lakes) were studied (2017–2023) in subarctic Canada within a climate transition zone, near a prospective REE mine. Dissolved REEs (<0.45 μm) correlated positively with Al, Fe, Th, U, Cl– and DOC. A novel relationship with water temperature demonstrated an approximate 10-fold decrease in REE concentrations over the environmental gradient (2–20 ℃), suggesting complex implications for REE speciation under climate pressures. Optical analyses further predicted REEs were mobilized by humic-rich, terrestrial DOC, with correlations presenting a possible co-transport with Al, Fe and Th. Relationships for redox-sensitive Ce anomalies (Ce/Ce* = 0.18–1.2) with multi-valent trace metals (Al, Fe, Ti) and DOC were suggestive of a preferential adsorption of Ce by inorganic colloids in low-DOC systems. Findings emphasized the potential for changes in REE geochemistry with ongoing northern surface warming and vegetation shifts.

Future Slower Reduction of Anthropogenic Aerosols Enhances Extratropical Ocean Surface Warming Trends

AbstractGlobal surface temperature short‐term trends fluctuate between cooling and fast‐warming under the combined action of external forcing and internal variability, significantly influencing the detectability of near‐term climate change. A key driver of these variations is anthropogenic aerosols (AAs), which have undergone a non‐monotonic evolution with rapid reduction in recent decades. However, their reduction is projected to decelerate under a high carbon emission scenario, yet the impact on surface temperature trends remains unknown. Here, using initial‐perturbation large ensembles, we find that future slowdown in AA reduction over Europe and North America expedites the subpolar North Atlantic surface warming by intensifying the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Further, it accelerates the South Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean surface warming through positive low‐cloud feedback and oceanic dynamical adjustment, triggered by the poleward migration of westerlies under interhemispheric energy constraint. These AA‐driven warmings exacerbate greenhouse warming, significantly enhancing the detectability of local decadal warming trends.

Arctic as the ‘radiator fins’ of Earth in a warming climate

Earth radiates thermal radiation to balance the solar radiation it receives. Central to understanding climate change is how the radiation energy budget adjusts both globally and locally to external and internal forcing. In the past 18 years, satellite observations reveal a distinct positive trend of the Earth thermal radiation in the Arctic, which acts to radiate excess heating accumulating in the climate system to the space during global warming, i.e. a radiator fin region in a warming climate. Compared with other regions such as the tropics, the prominent trend in the Arctic results from a stronger surface and atmospheric warming and a less offsetting greenhouse effect of water vapor. Spectral decompositions further show the increase of thermal emission in the Arctic mainly originates from the far-infrared and mid-infrared window region and affirms the unbalanced radiative responses to temperature and humidity changes in these two spectral regions account for the unique thermal radiation trend in the Arctic.

Threats to a Temperate Kelp Forest Species, Ecklonia cava, through Tropical Fish Herbivory Associated with Sea Surface Warming in the East China Sea

Kelp forests in Korean waters, mainly consisting of Ecklonia cava, provide ecologically and economically important ecosystems. However, they are severely threatened by increasing sea surface temperature (SST). In 2023, an unusually high SST was observed in the northern East China Sea, where the average SST from August to November 2023 was found to be 1.1 °C higher than the average SST during the same period over the last two decades. Our photo images and videos reveal increasing feeding on E. cava populations by tropical herbivore rabbitfish (Siganus canaliculatus, Siganus fuscescens) associated with the impact of increasing SST. Given the fall reproductive peak of E. cava population, increased herbivory by tropical rabbitfish could have a significant adverse impact on the composition of temperate kelp forests.

Local surface warming assessment in response to vegetation shifts over arid lands of Central Asia (2001−2020)

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was established to address the large-scale environmental change across this region. Regardless of the increasingly insightful literature addressing vegetation change across Central Asia, the biogeophysical warming effects of vegetation shifts still need to be clarified. To contribute, the utility of robust satellite observation is explored to evaluate the surface warming effects of vegetation shifts across Central Asia, which is among NEEPSI's hotspots. We estimated an average increase of +1.9 °C in daytime local surface temperature and + 1.5 °C in the nighttime due to vegetation shift (2001–2020). Meanwhile, the mean local latent heat increased by 4.65Wm−2, following the mild reduction of emitted longwave radiation (−0.8Wm−2). We found that vegetation shifts led to local surface warming with a bright surface, noting that the average air surface temperature was revealed to have increased significantly (2001–2020). This signal was driven mainly by agricultural expansion in western Kazakhstan stretching to Tajikistan and Xinjiang, then deforestation confined in Tajikistan, southeast Kazakhstan, and the northwestern edge of Xinjiang, and finally, grassland encroachment occurred massively in the west to central Kazakhstan. These findings address the latest information on Central Asia's vegetation shifts that may be substantial in landscape change mitigation plans.

How Might the May 2015 Flood in the U.S. Southern Great Plains Induced by Clustered MCSs Unfold in the Future?

AbstractThe historic 22–26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record‐breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month‐long regional convection‐permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4–6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low‐level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%–59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak‐to‐moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation.

Increased Extreme Precipitation in May over Southwestern Xinjiang in Relation to Eurasian Snow Cover in Recent Years

Abstract In this study, the interdecadal variations of extreme precipitation in May over southwestern Xinjiang (SWX) and related mechanisms were investigated. The extreme precipitation in May over SWX exhibited a decadal shift in the 1990s (negative phase during 1970–86 and positive phase during 2003–18). The decadal shift corresponded to strengthened moist airflow from the Indian Ocean and an anomalous cyclone over SWX during 2003–18. It is found that the interdecadal change of the wave trains in Eurasia might account for the differences in atmospheric circulation between the above two periods. Further analyses reveal that spring snow cover over Eurasia is closely linked to extreme precipitation over SWX during 2003–18. Increased snow cover in western Europe (WE) from February to March is accompanied by more snowmelt. This resulted in less local snow cover and lower albedo, leading to warm temperatures over WE in May. The changes in temperatures increase the local 1000–500-hPa thickness over WE. These factors provide favorable conditions for the enhancement of the Eurasian wave trains, which significantly influence extreme precipitation over SWX. On the other hand, corresponding to decreased albedo caused by the reduction of snow cover in northern Eurasia (NE) in May, anomalous surface warming occurs over NE. The anomalous warming results in positive geopotential height anomalies that intensify the meridional geopotential height gradient over Eurasia and cause an acceleration of the westerly jet in May. Anomalous upper-level divergence in SWX induced by the enhanced westerly jet provides a favorable dynamical condition for increased extreme precipitation.

Sea Ice Loss, Water Vapor Increases, and Their Interactions with Atmospheric Energy Transport in Driving Seasonal Polar Amplification

Abstract The ice–albedo feedback associated with sea ice loss contributes to polar amplification, while the water vapor feedback contributes to tropical amplification of surface warming. However, these feedbacks are not independent of atmospheric energy transport, raising the possibility of complex interactions that may obscure the drivers of polar amplification, in particular its manifestation across the seasonal cycle. Here, we apply a radiative transfer hierarchy to an idealized aquaplanet global climate model coupled to a thermodynamic sea ice model. The climate responses and radiative feedbacks are decomposed into the contributions from sea ice loss, including both retreat and thinning, and the radiative effect of water vapor changes. We find that summer sea ice retreat causes winter polar amplification through ocean heat uptake and release, and the resulting decrease in dry energy transport weakens the magnitude of warming. Moreover, sea ice thinning is found to suppress summer warming and enhance winter warming, additionally contributing to winter amplification. The water vapor radiative effect produces seasonally symmetric polar warming via offsetting effects: enhanced moisture in the summer hemisphere induces the summer water vapor feedback and simultaneously strengthens the winter latent energy transport in the winter hemisphere by increasing the meridional moisture gradient. These results reveal the importance of changes in atmospheric energy transport induced by sea ice retreat and increased water vapor to seasonal polar amplification, elucidating the interactions among these physical processes.

Environmental control of interannual and seasonal variability in dinoflagellate cyst export flux over 18 years in the Cape Blanc upwelling region (Mauritania)

The increasing threat of anthropogenic environment and climate change amplifies the urgency to investigate the effect of these changes on marine ecosystems. We provide information about the export flux of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts between 2003 and 2020 in the upwelling ecosystem off Cape Blanc (Mauritania), one of the world’s most productive regions. We compared the cyst export flux with variability in environmental parameters, such as wind speed, wind direction, dust emission, sea surface temperature (SST), SST difference between trap location and open ocean (SSTa), and chlorophyll-a concentration. This information is valuable to determine the ecological signal of dinoflagellate cysts that could be applied in recent and paleo records. The total export production of dinoflagellate cysts fluctuated between 0 - 1.18 x 105 cysts m-2 d-1 for the heterotrophs and 0 - 1.06 x 104 cysts m-2 d-1 for the photo-/mixotrophs. The export productions of both groups were in line with changes in upwelling intensity, which in most years, intensified in spring - summer. Dinoflagellate cyst association was dominated by heterotrophic taxa that formed an average of 94% of the association throughout the sediment trap record. A strong interannual variation in the cyst export fluxes, as well as the association composition was observed in the record. We identified five groups that showed comparable variability in export production with changes in environmental conditions: (1) maximal upwelling; Echinidinium delicatum/granulatum, E. transparantum/zonneveldiae, Echinidinium spp., Trinovantedinium spp., and Protoperidinium latidorsale, (2) combined maximal upwelling and dust input; Archaeperidinium spp., P. americanum, P. stellatum, and P. subinerme, (3) upwelling relaxation; Gymnodinium spp. and L. polyedra, (4) warm surface waters; Bitectatodinium spongium and Protoceratium reticulatum, (5) species with no specific relationship to the studied environmental variables; Brigantedinium spp., E. aculeatum, Impagidinium aculeatum, P. conicum, P. monospinum, Pentapharsodinium dalei, and Spiniferites spp. The sediment trap record documented a gradual shift in the cyst taxa association that co-occurred with the gradual increase of Saharan dust input to the region, notably after 2008. The cyst association contained five photo-/mixotrophic taxa that were formed by potentially toxic dinoflagellates. The latter could cause threats to the socio-economy of coastal communities.

Nannofossils from the Middle Eocene Sabiñánigo Sandstone Formation in the Jaca Basin (southern Pyrenees): biostratigraphy and paleoenvironmental implications

Abstract. This study presents the first detailed data on calcareous nannofossil assemblages from the Sabiñánigo Sandstone Formation in the Jaca Basin (central south Pyrenees). This formation is mainly composed of deltaic and outer-shelf sediments. These siliciclastic deposits contain nannofossil assemblages that are moderately to well-preserved, particularly in fine-grained levels. They contain a calcareous nannofossil assemblage dominated by the species Cyclicargolithus floridanus, Coccolithus pelagicus, Coccolithus formosus, Clausicoccus fenestratus, Zygrhablithus bijugatus, and several species of Sphenolithus and Chiasmolithus. The biostratigraphic results enabled the characterization of the Middle Eocene biohorizons, based on global stratigraphic scales and the improvement of the temporal correlation and lateral evolution of this basin's deposits. The sedimentary sequence of the Sabiñánigo Sandstone was deposited during the Middle Eocene, between the upper part of biozone NP16 and the base of NP17, in the Bartonian. The calcareous nannoplankton assemblage suggests warm and oligotrophic surface waters for the Bartonian interval in the Jaca Basin.

Modulation of regional carbon uptake by AMOC and alkalinity changes in the subpolar North Atlantic under a warming climate

IntroductionThe slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated consequences on ocean carbon uptake could have large implications for the Earth’s climate system and its global carbon cycle.MethodsThis study analyzes ten Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reveals that the regional carbon uptake in the subpolar North Atlantic under a high CO2 emission scenario moderately correlates with the decline in AMOC at 40°N. AMOC transports warm and salty subtropical waters to the subpolar regions.ResultsModels with stronger AMOC slowdown generally exhibit weaker surface warming and larger decline of surface salinity and alkalinity. We consider two plausible mechanisms linking the AMOC slowdown to the decline of regional CO2 uptake: the reduction in surface alkalinity and diminished subduction. The decline of surface salinity and alkalinity reduces the ocean’s capacity to buffer acids leading to a reduced CO2 uptake. This important contribution is unique to the North Atlantic. Diminished convective mixing and subduction of surface water can further decrease the downward transport of anthropogenic carbon, as also shown in previous research. The centennial trends of pCO2 are decomposed into four components driven by temperature, salinity, alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon, revealing that alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon are both significant contributors. The alkalinity-driven pCO2 essentially follows surface salinity, establishing the linkage between AMOC slowdown and alkalinity decline.DiscussionOur results indicate that alkalinity changes are important for the interplay between AMOC and the regional carbon sequestration ability across the late 20th and the entirety of the 21st century in the subpolar North Atlantic.

Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes

Abstract. As a phytotoxic pollutant, surface ozone (O3) not only affects plant physiology but also influences meteorological fields and air quality by altering leaf stomatal functions. Previous studies revealed strong feedbacks of O3–vegetation coupling in China but with large uncertainties due to the applications of varied O3 damage schemes and chemistry–vegetation models. In this study, we quantify the O3 vegetation damage and the consequent feedbacks to surface meteorology and air quality in China by coupling two O3 damage schemes (S2007 vs. L2013) into a fully coupled regional meteorology–chemistry model. With different schemes and damaging sensitivities, surface O3 is predicted to decrease summertime gross primary productivity by 5.5 %–21.4 % and transpiration by 5.4 %–23.2 % in China, in which the L2013 scheme yields 2.5–4 times of losses relative to the S2007 scheme. The damage to the photosynthesis of sunlit leaves is ∼ 2.6 times that of shaded leaves in the S2007 scheme but shows limited differences in the L2013 scheme. Though with large discrepancies in offline responses, the two schemes yield a similar magnitude of feedback to surface meteorology and O3 air quality. The O3-induced damage to transpiration increases national sensible heat by 3.2–6.0 W m−2 (8.9 % to 16.2 %), while reducing latent heat by 3.3–6.4 W m−2 (−5.6 % to −17.4 %), leading to a 0.2–0.51 °C increase in surface air temperature and a 2.2 %–3.9 % reduction in relative humidity. Meanwhile, surface O3 concentrations on average increase by 2.6–4.4 µg m−3, due to the inhibitions of stomatal uptake and the anomalous enhancement in isoprene emissions, the latter of which is attributed to the surface warming by O3–vegetation coupling. Our results highlight the importance of O3 control in China due to its adverse effects on ecosystem functions, global warming, and O3 pollution through O3–vegetation coupling.

Influence of warm surface water originating from the East China Sea on surface water temperature off the south coast of Korea in summer

Surface seawater temperature in the southwestern coast of Korea suddenly rose in the summer of 2017. This rapid temperature rise event occurred simultaneously with a change in wind direction in the Korea Strait from northwesterly to southeasterly due to the approach of typhoon Noru. To identify the causes of the abrupt rise in surface temperature, the variations of the surface currents and temperature were investigated using a three-dimensional ocean circulation model. Warm and less saline surface water, a mixed shelf water of the Changjiang Diluted Water and saline water from an onshore branch of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (ECS), flowed northeastward to the west and south of Jeju Island, proceeding eastward through the Jeju and Korea Straits. While westerly winds prevailed, wind-driven ageostrophic currents flowed southeastward, moving away from the south coast of Korea, due to Ekman transport. The shallow coastal region was occupied by cool and saline surface water (T < 22 °C, S > 32.5 psu). However, after the wind shifted to an easterly direction, the surface ageostrophic currents realigned northwestward, and the warm and less saline water moved into the shallow coastal region. In a passive tracer dispersal experiment, dyes injected from the ECS flowed to the west of Jeju Island and through the Jeju Strait via geostrophic currents. These dyes did not affect the shallow southern coastal region of Korea while the westerly winds dominated. However, during the easterly wind event, the dyes were advected toward the coast by the coastward Ekman transport. An analysis of temperature data observed at Cheongsando over 16 years and the tracer experiment revealed that the abrupt temperature rise in the summer of 2017 was a marine heatwave event generated by the advection of warm and less saline surface water from the ECS to the southwestern coast of Korea through the Jeju Strait.

Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory

Abstract. Accurate estimation of changes in the global hydrological cycle over the historical record is important for model evaluation and understanding future trends. Freshwater flux trends cannot be accurately measured directly, so quantification of change often relies on ocean salinity trends. However, anthropogenic forcing has also induced ocean transport change, which imprints on salinity. We find that this ocean transport affects the surface salinity of the saltiest regions (the subtropics) while having little impact on the surface salinity in other parts of the globe. We present a method based on linear response theory which accounts for the regional impact of ocean circulation changes while estimating freshwater fluxes from ocean tracers. Testing on data from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble, we find that our method can recover the true amplification of freshwater fluxes, given thresholded statistical significance values for salinity trends. We apply the method to observations and conclude that from 1975–2019, the hydrological cycle has amplified by 5.04±1.27 % per degree Celsius of surface warming.

System Parameters Sensitivity Analysis of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) is a technology to harvest the solar energy stored in the ocean by utilizing the temperature difference between warm surface and cold deep seawater. Considering that the OTEC system works in a low-temperature range, the present paper assessed the technical resources comprehensively by acquiring in-situ thermocline data and conducting a sensitivity analysis of the system parameters. The in-situ temperature profile data were measured in the waters of North Bali, Indonesia. The temperature gradient data based on field measurements were then compared with the HYCOM consortium model. The data were then used as input in the OTEC power and efficiency estimation through a single-stage ranking cycle. The analysis was conducted by varying the type of working fluid, the performance of the heat exchanger, and the location to investigate how the system parameters influenced the power produced. Using an unusual combination of parameters made it difficult to analyze the resulting data multiple times. However, with reference-based analysis and the formulation of calculations, the sensitivity of each parameter could be assessed at both locations. As a result, the ammonia working fluid provided the highest net power output of the system but had the lowest efficiency of all working fluids. The heat exchanger performance in terms of net power and efficiency cannot be separated from the seawater mass flow requirement. This referred to the results where the heat exchanger with a temperature difference of 3°C before and after the seawater passed through the heat exchanger and produced the highest net power and efficiency. Additionally, the net power output reached its convergence level at a water depth of 400m for the Bungkulan site and 450m for Celukan Bawang, which was proportional to the thermocline tendency. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2024-08-02-04 Full Text: PDF

Dew, frost, fog and lifted temperature minima: Observations in southern England and implications for modelling

AbstractGiven difficulties with modelling radiation fog and the similarity of meteorological conditions linked to dewfall and frost we investigated the formation of dew, frost and fog. For a site in the UK seven years of data were analysed representing high‐resolution atmospheric profiles and dew meter measurements for radiation nights with stable conditions. Classical dewfall occurs by condensation when the surface is below the dew point and cooler than the air above. However, the profiles show that, in the absence of fog, typically dew and frost form with the surface warmer than the immediately overlying air due to lifted temperature minima (LTMs) at about 0.15 m. Observations of aerosol number density and average hydrated radii show that aerosol optical extinction (and hence their radiative effect) is weakly but significantly correlated with the intensity of LTMs. Low wind speed on stable nights allows settling of aerosols which radiatively cool the air near the ground more quickly than the surface cools – thus creating LTMs. In the presence of LTMs typically dew and frost form not by condensation, but by occult deposition of water droplets onto the canopy and ground. Among radiation fog observations, 91% are associated with light near‐surface winds and LTMs. When the rate of removal of suspended water droplets by occult deposition generating dew or frost is too slow, then build‐up of droplets in the air just above the surface leads to the formation of radiation fog. Future modelling should allow for the accumulation of near‐surface aerosols and their radiative effects during stable nights to represent the formation of LTMs. Modelling of typical dew and frost will require representation of occult deposition. Assessing rates of occult deposition compared to rates of generation of suspended water droplets is needed to forecast the onset of radiation fog formed near the ground.